The universal model of prediction of PV quality was developed. This model includes customer expectation and other interested parties. The concept, conditions of choice methods, assumptions and characteristic of model are shown in the next part of study.
2.3. Assumptions and Characteristics of the Model
The model was developed for its universal application. After the literature review [
1,
32,
35,
36,
37,
39,
42,
43], we assumed that:
the model can be used by any entity (expert, broker, bidder);
possibility to verify any customers expectations, also customers who do not have knowledge about PV;
the model allows for the verification of any photovoltaic panels;
the model is designed for individual photovoltaic panel selection, i.e., by an individual customer;
the model allows the analysis of three groups of PV criteria, i.e.: qualitative (subjective, immeasurable), aesthetic (landscape), and quantitively (technical, measurable);
the model supports the prediction of the quality of PV resulting from customer preferences and other interested parties, e.g., an entity who offered photovoltaic panels.
The assumptions adopted determine the universality of the proposed model to predict the quality of photovoltaic panel considering customer expectations. The model is presented in
Figure 3 and
Figure 4.
The characteristic of stages of the model is presented in the next part of the study.
The purpose of the analysis is determined by the entity using the proposed model (bidder, expert broker). The determined purpose should include rules of the SMART(-ER) method (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, Time-bound, Exciting, Recorded) [
30,
31]. As part of the proposed model, it can be assumed that the purpose is the prediction of quality of photovoltaic panels considering sustainable criteria, i.e.: qualitative (immeasurable, determined by the customer), quantity (measurable, technical-base criteria of the utility of product), aesthetic (landscape). To determine the purpose, it is recommended to realize an initial interview with the customer, i.e., individual customer (household), small and medium companies, or others.
The choice of PV for verification is made by the entity. The choice results from the availability of products that can be offered for the customer. At this stage, it is necessary to determine the photovoltaic panels initially expected. It is preferred to inform the customer about possibilities using BIPV panels (i.e., integrated with building) [
7,
45,
46], or BAPV panels (not integrated with the building) [
47,
48,
49]. The customer can then initially indicate the type of solar panels expected. On the basis of initial customer preference, it is possible to choose photovoltaic panels for the next analysis. The number and type of verified photovoltaic panels are not limited and depend on the entity.
The qualitative criteria for photovoltaic panels are immeasurable criteria. In the proposed approach, assumed that these criteria are general (subjective) determined of quantitative (technical, measurable) criteria. Additionally, it was assumed that at this stage, qualitative criteria should not be not aesthetic criteria of the product. It results from the concept of the proposed model, where all criteria will be integrated sequentially. Examples of qualitative criteria are shown in
Figure 4. At this stage, the purpose is to obtain the so-called Voice of Customer (VoC) about the important (preferred) criteria of PV. To obtain customer expectations, the questionnaire is used with the proposed qualitative criteria. The idea is to support the customer in determining their expectations. Additionally, the customer should be able to point out his own criteria. According to the literature review, for example [
1,
3,
12,
14,
40,
50], the customer is able to simultaneously assess simultaneously from 5 to 9 criteria. Therefore, the summary number of all criteria (proposed and individually determined by the customer) should be equal to 7 ± 2 [
9,
14,
50]. Then, the weights of these criteria are determined by the customer. According to a review of the literature [
36,
37,
38,
39], it is preferred to use the approach of comparison in pairs, which increases the precision of the results. The popular Likert scale (five-point) is used for comparison of criteria weights, which according to Refs. [
51,
52] is effective in obtaining customer expectations. The matrix of comparisons in pair is created by the entity (broker, expert) based on the qualitative criteria determined by the customer. An example of the questionnaire with proposed qualitative criteria is shown in
Figure 5. These proposed qualitative criteria are correlated with quantitative criteria. These quantitative criteria were the following.
high power—It relates to the high-power potential value of electrical energy, i.e., available power;
high performance—high efficiency (usability);
light weight—relatively low overall weight of PV;
small size—small size determined by the length, width, and thickness of PV;
easy to assemble—possibility of uncomplicated assembly, i.e., integrated assembly, non-integrated assembly, the possibility of self-assembly;
high corrosion resistance—relates to corrosion resistance; therefore, it includes additional specifications used to protect the PV coating;
minimal energy loses;
high-temperature resistance—concerns the criteria of maximum PV power and efficiency.
The worksheet indicates the criteria selected as a result of preliminary research conducted with installers. These were the criteria that clients most frequently articulated.
In the questionnaire, it is possible to include any qualitative criteria, e.g., basic criteria and innovative criteria, which are not popular and perhaps not known by customers.
The aesthetic criteria of PV are criteria that determine landscape values, i.e., the satisfaction of the customer from landscape caused by the product [
53,
54]. The purpose is to select the expected criteria as part of achieving customer satisfaction from the landscape. Additionally, the concept of a model includes the integration of aesthetic criteria with qualitative and quantitative criteria. It refers to the simultaneous achievement of satisfaction from the landscape and quality of the photovoltaic in terms of its utility. It is realized in the next part of the model.
After reviewing the literature, it is proposed to include aesthetic criteria (landscape), i.e., [
53,
54,
55,
56,
57]:
visibility—It is possible to observed PV by the customer and other interested parties, where the higher the visibility, the higher negative the impact of this criterion on the quality level; the visibility is measured by geographic information systems (GIS) or as the percentage of surface occupied by PV to the total (seen) surface of landscape; against this criterion it is necessary to determine visibility from areas with important impact on viewing values for the client and interested parties, e.g., from a distance of 5 to 10 km distance from nature and history, historic buildings, recreation areas, or landscaping sites that the customer does not want to be disturbed by PV installation; a certain difficulty in determining visibility in a precise manner is the need to take into account the customer’s point of view;
degree of integration—it determines degree of combination of PV with landscape and simultaneously refers to the visibility criterion; in this context, it is necessary to include the attributes of BIPV and BAPV; according to experts, a high level of integration is preferred, which to some extent reduces its visibility, i.e., non-integrated, partially integrated or integrated panels;
colour (hue, saturation, brightness)—determines the color values of PV, e.g., panel frame and values of the landscape in which PV is installed;
light reflection—determines the reflection of light (sunlight or artificially induced light) from the photovoltaic panel; not controlled light reflection has an impact on customer satisfaction, e.g., by decreased visual performance, dazzle, and a need for frequent blinking or looking away, discomfort or headache;
pattern (texture)—it is the appearance of surface that is consisting of its complexity and similarity to nearby elements due to density/porosity or transparency;
fractality—visual image that includes repeating elements at different scales.
The final choice of aesthetic criteria lies with the entity using the proposed model. It results from the possibilities of adjusting groups of aesthetic criteria to the initial determined customer expectations in the case of BIPV or BAPV panels (from stage 2). According to the literature [
1,
3,
12,
14,
40,
50], the number of criteria should be equal to 5 to 9 criteria. Also, it results from the concept of model, where the aesthetic criteria will be a comparison in pairs. Additionally, aesthetic criteria are immeasurable criteria (like qualitative criteria). Therefore, its precise definition is problematic [
39,
40]. In turn of that, it is proposed to obtain customer expectations based on possible modification (alternatives) of these criteria. It will be helpful for the customer to determine its preferences. For this purpose, the questionnaire is used. Therefore, the questionnaire should allow for the determination of the expected states (modifications) of the criteria. These states are determined by the entity (expert, bidder, broker). Additionally, the questionnaire should include the stage of determining the weights of criteria. To this aim, the approach with comparison in pairs is used. The example of a questionnaire is shown in
Figure 6.
After obtaining customer expectations from aesthetic criteria, it is necessary to determine the quantity criteria.
The quantitative criteria of PV are measurable criteria, so technical criteria. These criteria for the use are based on the criteria of using PV, which refer to its utility. These criteria are determined to process the customer criteria (qualitative and aesthetic) into measurable criteria. It is achieved by determining the relations between these criteria, as is shown in the next stage of the proposed model. Qualitative criteria are selected by an entity or group of experts. These criteria are determined during brainstorming (BM) [
58,
59,
60,
61,
62,
63]. Also, the product catalogue is used for that.
Based on the literature review determined quantity criteria of PV, that is, [
3,
6,
16,
53,
54,
55,
56]:
rated power (installed) (Wp) refers to the value of the potential value of electric energy, i.e., available power;
short-circuit current (current at maximum load) (A)—this is the intensity of the current flowing when the cell is short-circuited;
maximum (output) current (A)—the current supplying photovoltaic panel to the load;
open-circuit voltage (no load, open circuit) (V)—voltage generated without connecting the module to the load;
maximum (critical) voltage (V)—voltage at the maximum power point, i.e., during PV operation in Standard Test Conditions;
efficiency (efficiency) (%)—the efficiency of changing the power of solar radiation into electricity, where the higher the value, the better;
maximum system voltage (VDC)—voltage in the PV installation circuit limits the number of panels connected in one series/string;
maximum power (MPP)—the power achieved by the cell, it is the power available under standard test conditions and the main output parameter in PV selection;
panel efficiency (%)—PV efficiency to convert solar energy into electricity, where the efficiency of the entire module is lower than that of a single cell and depends on the method of connecting the cells;
weight (kg)—this is the total weight of the photovoltaic panel;
warranty—period covered by the possibility of no costly repair or replacement of PV;
kinematics—PV inclination angle adjustment;
dimensions (mm)—overall dimensions of PV, i.e., length, width, thickness;
single-cell efficiency (Solar Cell Efficiency) (%)—efficiency of one cell included in the entire PV module.
According to [
64,
65,
66] the most frequently are selected from 14 to 25 criteria. The different number of quantitative criteria and customer criteria (qualitative and aesthetic criteria, i.e., (7 ± 2)), resulted from the assumptions of model, i.e., a lack of need to compare quantitative criteria simultaneously. Therefore, the number of criteria may be greater but large enough to maintain the precision of the assessment of these criteria.
At this stage, the dependents between qualitative and quantitative criteria are determined. It refers to the determination of mutual influence (correlations) for these criteria. The purpose is to process the expected qualitative criteria (immeasurable) into quantitative criteria (measurable). The idea is to identify which technical (quantitative) criteria should be included in estimating the quality of photovoltaics. The DEMATEL method (Decision Making Trial And Evaluation Laboratory) is used for that. The choice of the DEMATEL method was caused by supporting decisions in determining the interdependencies between PV criteria and reflecting the complex connections between them. Additionally, this method provides verification of any number and type of criteria, therefore being used for that [
32,
33,
34,
35]. How to apply this method is presented in five steps.
This assessment is done for qualitative and quantitative criteria. The assessment is carried out by expert (entity) on an ordinal scale using the DEMATEL method. It is scaled from 0 to 4, where 0—no impact, 1—low impact, 2—clear impact, 3—high impact, 4—extreme impact. Based on the assigned assessments of the influence of given elements on each other, a direct influence matrix is created, where there are zero values on the diagonal (no influence of identical elements on each other) (1) [
33,
35]:
where
—assessment, l—expert opinion.
Based on the direct impact matrix, it is possible to create a network of connections (interactions) of these elements. This is called the structure of direct influence, as shown in [
35].
It is realized on the basis of direct impact of PV criteria. For this purpose, the impact matrix on the PV criteria is created. It is the normalized matrix of indirect impact of PV criteria
, as shown Formula (2) [
32,
34]:
where all elements of the X matrix included in range 0
0
and the last element i is shown as
Next, the structure of total impact is created, and in this structure is included the simultaneously direct and indirect impact of PV criteria. It is sum all direct effects and all indirect effects for verified criteria, i.e., (3) [
32,
34,
35]:
where: X—normalized matrix of indirect impact, I—identical matrix.
According to the structure of total impact, it is possible to determine cause-and-effect dependencies, which, in the proposed concept are dependencies between quantitative, aesthetic, and qualitative criteria. It refers to the determination of the mutual correlation (impact) between these criteria. For this purpose, the map of impact relations is created (4) [
33,
34]:
where R—sum of values in the rows of matrix of total impact, C—sum of values in the columns of matrix of total impact, r—sum of the i-th row in T matrix and determines the sum of direct and indirect effects not included among the verified elements, c—sum of the j-th column in T matrix and determines the sum of direct and indirect effects not included among the verified elements.
Based on quantitative and qualitative dependencies, it is possible to determine key PV criteria, i.e., strongly correlated quantitative (technical) criteria (from stage 5) with qualitative criteria (from stage 3). The purpose is to identify quantitative criteria on which the quality of photovoltaic panels will be estimated. As part of the DEMATEL method, it refers to determining the average value (α) from all values of the total impact (T) (5) [
32,
33]:
where as in Formula (3).
The values of the T matrix that are above average (α) mean important the mutual impact of qualitative and quantitative criteria. Criteria that have values above average are key PV criteria. Key criteria for solar panels are included in the further analysis.
The weights of the PV criteria are estimated based on customer assessments obtained from stage 3 and stage 4. The weights of PV criteria are estimated based on customer assessments obtained from stage 3 and stage 4. Therefore, to calculate the weights of PV criteria, the AHP method was used, because the methodology of AHP method includes a rule of comparison in pairs to determine the weights of criteria [
37,
38,
39]. The use of the AHP method is shown in four steps. The process is realized double, i.e., for qualitative criteria (from stage 3), and for aesthetic criteria (from stage 4). At this stage, the quantity criteria not correlated (result of stage 6) are not included in this analysis.
The comparison of PV criteria in pairs is performed according to the evaluations of criteria in the Likert scale. For this purpose, the dominate matrix (
is created, where i, j = 1, 2, …, k; with proportion of
weights for
criteria. It is a square matrix (n × n), where n is the number of criteria (6–7) [
37]:
In this matrix, the diagonal values are valued equal to 1, which proves that the criteria are equivalent. In turn, above the diagonal is the value from the comparison of two different criteria and below the diagonal, the reciprocal values of these comparisons.
Assessment of PV criteria refers to the calculation of the geometric average of rows of the dominance geometric matrix and its normalization (8) [
38,
39]:
The sum of all assessments of importance (weights) should be equal to 1. Proves the correctness of the calculations performed. To check whether the ratings were given consistently, it is necessary to check that the results do not violate the principle of stability of preferences.
To determine the correctness of the customer ratings, the consistency of the preferences matrix should be examined. It refers to the calculation of the consistency factor (λ
max) (9), the compatibility coefficient of the comparison matrix (CI) (10), and the compatibility ratio (CR) (11) [
37,
39]:
where:
λmax—consistency factor,
n—number of criteria,
r—mean value of the random index for n according to Saaty [
37,
38].
Achieved λ
max = n, CI = 0, CR = 0, determine the full correctness of the results. Also, it is acceptable to achieve λ
max near to n, for CI < 0.1 and CR < 0.1 [
37,
38,
39]. If results are not correct, it is necessary to repeat the calculations starting from step 1.
The weights of the criteria should be ordered in a ranking. It relies on segregating values of weights from maximum to minimum. The maximum value is the first position in the ranking, so it is the most preferred (the most important criterion). The minimum value is the last position in the ranking, so the least preferred (the least important criterion). After calculating the weights for qualitative criteria, it is necessary to calculate the weights for aesthetic criteria. To achieve this, the process is repeated from step 1 to step 4. Then, it is possible to calculate the weights of the key PV criteria, as is shown in the next stage of the model.
In this stage, it is necessary to calculate the weights only for key PV criteria, so for criteria that generate the quality of PV an important degree. The key criteria are quantitative criteria (measurable, technical) correlated with criteria expected by the customer (qualitative). The set of these criteria was determined in Step 6.5 of model. To determine the weights of the key PV criteria, it is necessary to based on the weights of qualitative criteria (from stage 7). The quantitative criteria can be integrated with the different numbers of qualitative criteria (
Figure 7).
Therefore, the weights of the key criteria are calculated as the arithmetic average of these weights (12) [
67]:
where
—weights of
key criteria, n—number of customer criteria correlated with
quantitative criterion
—weights of
qualitative criteria, i—criterion of PV expected by the customer.
Note that weights have also been set for the aesthetic criteria (in step 7). The weights of the key PV criteria and the weights of the aesthetic criteria will be considered in stage 10 of the model to determine the quality of the PV panels.
The evaluations of meeting customer expectations are evaluations of the quality of key PV criteria in terms of customer expectations. Assessments are carried out by expert (broker, bidder) based on key PV criteria (stage 6) for all photovoltaic panels (stage 2). This is achieved in two steps.
The entity applying this model characterizes all photovoltaic panels (from stage 2) according to key criteria. For each key criterion, it is necessary to determine, e.g., the value (parameter) or a range of values. The catalogue (specification) of PV is used for that. The characteristic can be realized in the table.
The level of satisfaction of customer expectations from PV criteria is realized based on the characteristic of these criteria. Assessments are performed by entity (expert) according to the Likert scale (1–5, where 1—the lowest quality of criterion, 5 is the highest quality of criterion) [
40,
41]. The entity (expert) is based on customer expectations obtained from questionnaires, i.e., questionnaire for qualitative criteria (stage 3) and the questionnaire for aesthetic criteria (stage 4). The assessments are used to estimate the quality of the photovoltaic panels, which is shown in the next stage of the model.
The estimation of the quality of photovoltaic panels refers to determining the so-called level of customer satisfaction with the quality of photovoltaic panels. The quality of PV is calculated considering weights of key criteria (i.e., quantitative correlated with qualitative) and the weights of aesthetic criteria. Moreover, it is necessary to include assessments to meet customer expectations (from stage 9). For this purpose, the Weighted Product Model (WPM) is used [
36,
37,
42]. In this method, there is no need to standardize the measurement units for the verified criteria. Therefore, there is no need to standardize expert ratings for the various key PV criteria. Using the WPM refers to calculating the quotient of the weights of PV criteria and assessments of meeting customer expectations for the verified PV (13) [
36,
37,
42]:
where a—evaluations to meet customer expectations for
PV in case of
criterion, W—weight of
criterion, i, j = 1, 2, …, n.
It is necessary to remember that the sum of weights should be equal to 1. Otherwise, the normalization of the criteria weights must be done by Formula (14) [
67]:
where
—normalized weight of
key criterion,
—arithmetic average from weights of
key criteria, i—criterion expected by the customer.
In the WPM it is possible to eliminate all measure values. Therefore, the quality of PV is estimated as dimensionless. Then, a ranking of quality of PV is created. The maximum value (first position in the ranking) is the photovoltaic panel with the most satisfaction for the customer (meet his expectations to the highest degree). In turn, to predict satisfaction from the quality of PV, the relative state scale is used, as is shown in the next stage of the model.
This stage refers to verifying the quality levels of the photovoltaic panels according to the universal scale of relative states [
1,
40] (
Figure 8). For this purpose, it is necessary to analyze the quality of PV that was estimated using the WPM method (from stage 10).
In addition, the choice of the final solar panel may be influenced, for example, the cost of its purchase. Therefore, the entity (bidder, broker, expert) should offer the customer the most advantageous PV in terms of quality and then indicate the cost of its purchase. Then the customer can decide which photovoltaic is expected.