3.1. Variable Description of Micro-Grid Project Auction
Using multi-attribute auction theory to study the transfer of micro-grid projects, an important issue is to identify which attributes of the micro-grid project are involved in the auction. Existing literature generally studied the auction of power project resources only from the attributes of tender bidding price and bidding quality [
27,
28]. These attributes can neither well reflect the characteristics of micro-grid system and the interests of stakeholders, nor to be conducive to further analyze strategy adopted by participants. Expand existing research, based on the characteristics of micro-grid system and the interests of stakeholders, we decide to introduce important quality attributes of the micro-grid project including power quality, energy storage quality, and carbon emission into the auction model.
Power quality refers to the quality of power technology and power configuration. Since power is the basis of grid system, power technology, and power configuration are the core of micro-grid system. The power of micro-grid is mainly generated by photovoltaic, wind and gas, emphasizing local production, and consumption of energy. In the meantime, micro-grid can also effectively and fully utilize local energy resources according to the characteristics of local energy with the help of corresponding power technologies such as biomass power generation and waste heat power generation. According to the characteristics of the local power resources and technology, we can rationally configure the power supply of micro-grid. This way not only can take the advantage of local energy resources and technical resources, but it can also facilitate the establishment of the micro-grid development mode of local characteristics. Therefore, we introduce power quality as a key quality factor of micro-grid into the auction model.
Energy storage quality refers to the quality of energy storage technology and energy storage configuration of micro-grid system. Because of the volatility of micro-grid power supply and the fluctuation of electricity load, energy storage is an important way to cut and fill valley and make full use of energy, which makes it an integral part of micro-grid. When micro-grid stores energy with super capacitors, lithium batteries, lead-acid batteries, and other batteries, according to its specific needs on hot and cold power, it can make comprehensive use of new storage methods such as water storage, ice storage, joint energy storage station, electric car charging, and other innovative energy storage methods. In this way, it will enrich energy storage of micro-grid, and will also improve the efficiency of energy use. These innovative energy storage methods and technologies are important parts of balancing energy supply and utilization of micro-grid and a key quality factor of micro-grid. Therefore, we also incorporate energy storage quality into the auction model.
Carbon emissions refer to the level of carbon emissions in micro-grid systems. Carbon emission is a big concern of micro-grid system. This is partly due to that besides renewable energy and clean energy, the rest of its power supply is mainly coal, which will produce a lot of carbon emissions [
8,
9]. The other reason is that when it exchanges electricity with large grid, micro-grid system will produce more carbon emissions as power consumer since that power generation of large grid is mainly coal-based. In view of this, in order to highlight the importance of the micro-grid on carbon emissions reduction, regulation rules of micro-grid pointed out that the annual exchange of electricity between grid-connected micro-grid and the external grid should be kept within no more than 50% of the annual power consumption, emphasizing the renewable energy installed capacity of micro-grid should account for more than 50% of the maximum load, or more than 70% of the comprehensive utilization rate of energy [
1].Therefore, in order to highlight the importance of carbon emissions and the environmental benefits of micro-grid systems, we add carbon emissions as a decision-making variable to the model.
3.2. Problem Description of Micro-Grid Project Auction
Micro-grid project owners, such as government agencies, industrial parks, residential areas, and large users, possess micro-grid project resources. Due to lack of professional skills they cannot complete the construction of micro-grid alone. In order to alleviate the cost-benefit pressure of micro-grid project development, and promote the construction and development of micro-grid project, the project owners as resource holders will auction their projects and seek partners to search the best way to develop micro-grid projects. By auctioning the franchise or other project resources of the micro-grid project, project owners cooperate with other parties to complete the development of micro-grid projects through complementary resources and sharing professional efficiency.
The auction of micro-grid project is divided into four stages. In the first stage, the micro-grid project owners publish announcement of tender based on their own needs, and imply their own preference
,
,
for power quality,
, energy storage quality,
, and carbon emissions,
, as well as pre-bid costs,
, and acceptable maximum levels of carbon emissions,
. In the second stage, micro-grid energy suppliers, represented by grid companies, equipment suppliers, energy investors decide whether or not to participate in the bidding of micro-grid project according to project owner’s tendering plan, unit power quality cost,
, unit energy storage quality cost,
, and carbon emissions cost,
, etc. If micro-grid energy suppliers choose to bid, then carry out research, design bidding plan, prepare bidding documents, and submit bidding scheme. The bidding scheme is a row vector consisting of power quality, energy storage quality, and carbon emissions and prices. In the third stage, owner of the micro-grid project sets up an expert team to evaluate the bid, choose the bid winner according as to whether the bidding program meets the needs and objectives of project owner and what technical type the energy supplier possesses. In the fourth stage, micro-grid project owner and the winning energy supplier discuss cooperation detail sand sign a formal contract, micro-grid project transfer auction process ends. The auction process of micro-grid project transfer is shown in
Figure 1.
After the project owner announces the tender plan for the micro-grid project, what is the optimal strategy for energy supplier bidding? How does the project owner choose an energy supplier? And what factors will affect and how they will affect the micro-grid project auction? In order to explore these problems, we construct the following game model.
3.3. Auction Assumptions and Model Establishment
After knowing project owner’s tender plans and preferences, there are some energy suppliers, , participate in the bidding for micro-grid projects. Power quality, energy storage quality, carbon emissions and prices provided by energy suppliers are expressed as , , , and .
Hypothesis 1. The power quality , energy storage quality and carbon emissions are independent of each other, and are the continuous increasing function on , and respectively. (, , , and , respectively represent the lower and upper limits of power quality, energy storage quality and carbon emissions). The probability density functions and the cumulative distribution functions are and , and , and respectively.
Hypothesis 2. Carbon emissions are expressed as a decreasing function of utilization rate of renewable energy and comprehensive utilization rate of energy .
From the previous analysis of the impact of carbon emissions, we find that as the micro-grid system enhances the utilization rate of renewable energy and clean energy, it will reduce the level of carbon emissions in the micro-grid system. When the comprehensive utilization rate of energy of the micro-grid system increases, the efficiency of clean energy increases, and the consumption of energy for external carbon emissions is reduced, the level of carbon emissions from micro-grid systems will also be reduced. These two aspects are important to carbon emissions, so this assumption is reasonable.
Hypothesis 3. The bidding price of energy supplier is a function of power quality, energy storage quality and carbon emissions, which are private information of the energy supplier. That is, energy suppliers only know their own tender’s , , and , and the distribution function of other energy suppliers, but don’t know the specific bidding value of other energy suppliers.
Hypothesis 4. The risk preference of the project owner and the energy supplier is neutral and both are rational economic persons, making decisions on the basis of perfect and complete information.
The return function of micro-grid project owner is a linear function about quality attributes, value coefficient and the bidding price, expressed as:
The return function of micro-grid energy supplier is a linear function about bidding price, quality attributes and cost coefficient, expressed as:
During the bidding, the probability micro-grid energy supplier wins the bidding affected by supplier number
, the bidding price of
, power quality
, energy storage quality
, and carbon emissions of
. At the same time, when micro-grid energy supplier wins the auction, the benefits of project owner should be optimal. This probability is recorded as prob
, abbreviated as
. Thus, the expected return that energy supplier winning bid can be expressed as:
Hypothesis 5. We can differentiate the technology type of energy supplier with power quality, energy storage quality and carbon emissions of the energy supplier’s bidding. In the meantime, the judgment function of project owner on the type of energy supplier is: Since
represents the marginal revenue of the unit power quality,
, represents the marginal revenue of the unit energy storage capacity,
, represents the marginal revenue of the unit carbon emissions, so it is reasonable to distinguish the type of energy supplier use the formula above. Calculating cumulative distribution function of
. Making
,
,
. After transformation,
. From Hypothesis 1 we know
,
and
independent of each other, so
,
and
also independent of each other. Moreover, since
is a linear relationship of
, the density function
of
is also a linear transformation of
. Similarly,
,
are also a linear transformation of
, and
, respectively. As
,
, and
are known, so
,
, and
also are known. The cumulative distribution function of the energy supplier type can be calculated by the multiple convolution calculation method and the boundary relation of
:
is the lower limit of , . The density function and the value of the above equation are known, so is known.
Hypothesis 6. There is no conspiracy between the energy suppliers in bidding. The bidding of energy supplier is determined according to the bidding function , and is an increasing function.
That is, when the energy supplier ’s multi-attribute bidding vector is , then will bid for . Meanwhile, since both and are the increasing functions of , and . Namely, when the bidding price is higher, that means the type of energy supplier is better, so is also an increasing function.
During the bidding, in order to obtain the franchise, energy suppliers may be in collusion with each other, which will not only improve the winning price, but also reduce the quality of the project and damage the interests of project owners. In order to avoid this situation, project owners will usually take measures to prevent the bidder conspiracy. So, the assumption that there is no conspiracy is reasonable.
3.4. Game Analysis of Auction Mechanism
First, we use inverse method to analyze the optimal strategy. By Hypothesis 4, the project owner and the energy supplier make decisions on the basis of perfect, complete information. Therefore, at the Nash equilibrium of the third stage of auction, the project owners will choose energy suppliers who bring them the maximum benefits as the bid winner. At this point, the project owner’s return and energy supplier’s bid satisfies the following equation:
Reverse to the second stage, when the energy supplier bidding, energy supplier will bid according to their own type and the tender vector, which can maximize their interests. Thus, when energy supplier wins the auction in the third stage, the type of energy supplier, the bid vector, and the return satisfy the following equation:
According to optimization theory, the Nash equilibrium is solved for the above formula, and the optimal price of the energy supplier is deduced as follows:
Theorem 1. In the auction of micro-grid project transfer, the optimal bidding price for the energy supplier to participate in the auction is: is the type of energy supplier when bidding reaches Nash equilibrium. Proof. When the energy supplier ’s bid is a Nash equilibrium, the returns of project owner and the energy supplier are both 0. That is . The probability that energy supplier win the auction is equal to the probability when other energy suppliers’ type is less than equilibrium type, namely, .Therefore, the returns of energy suppliers can be written as .
When , since , , and are increasing functions, the expected return of the energy supplier are available. At this point, the expected return of energy supplier is less than the bid cost, thus the energy supplier’s best strategy is not to participate in the bidding. At this time, because the power quality, energy storage quality, and carbon emissions provided by energy supplier cannot meet the requirements of project owner at the same time. Even if energy suppliers participate in the bidding, they will not win the bid, only to waste the bid cost, .
When
, the energy supplier’s bid vector is located at the Nash equilibrium, where the costs of the energy supplier are equal to the benefits. At this point, the project owner’s returns are 0, the following formula is satisfied:
Equation (8) transformation, the tender price of energy supplier is:
When , assuming is the winner of the tender, the bid vector is satisfied , the probability of winning the bid is , and the returns of can be written as .
At this time, the energy supplier’s bid must be the best bid
, therefore:
Take the derivative of
with respect to
, we get:
From the above two equations and the meaning of partial derivative, we get:
By Hypothesis 1, at equilibrium, the same type of energy supplier has equal bid strategy, namely,
. So,
By calculating the integral of Equation (13), we have:
By equilibrium
, we obtain:
The above formula combined with
, we obtain:
Theorem 1 is proved. From the Theorem 1, when the type of energy supplier is less than or equal to the type of equilibrium, the optimal strategy of energy supplier is not to participate in the bidding. Because when less than or equal to the type of equilibrium, energy supplier participates in bidding not only the expected return of bidding is 0, but also loss of bidding costs. Only when the type of energy supplier is greater than the equilibrium type, it is advisable for energy supplier to participate in bidding. At this point, the energy supplier’s expected return will be greater than the cost. At the same time, by calculating we can see that the bidding price is the Nash equilibrium value.
Theorem 2. At the sub-game Nash equilibrium point of micro-grid project auction, with the improvement of requirement by project owner for utilization rate of renewable energy and comprehensive utilization rate of energy, the type of energy supplier will also increase at equilibrium.
Proof. Equilibrium equations are:
From the Hypothesis 1, carbon emission is the reduction function of the utilization rate of renewable energy and comprehensive utilization rate of energy , set the expression is , and arethe relevant weight coefficient respectively.
When
and
remain unchanged, the difference between the new equilibrium and the equilibrium is:
By the Hypothesis 2, the above equation is positive, so the equilibrium level rises.
When
and
changed, we assume that when the utilization rate of renewable energy and comprehensive utilization rate of energy increase, carbon emission value coefficient and cost coefficient will increase corresponding. The new equilibrium equation is:
We use the increment to represent the new equilibrium value:
,
,
and
,
,
represent the new andincremental valuesof
,
and
respectively. By substituting the incremental formula in the following calculation, we attain:
Theorem 2 is proved. In the case of proportional growth, the increment of
is greater than the increment of
due to
significant greater than
. When the growth rate of the value coefficient is greater than the growth of the cost coefficient, the increase rate of the equilibrium level will be further improved. By Theorem 2, when the requirement of project owner for utilization rate of renewable energy and comprehensive utilization rate of energy are improved, the type of energy supplier will also increase when it is balanced. According to Theorem 4, with an improvement of type of energy supplier, the quality of micro-grid project and the satisfaction of project owner’s demand will be improved, which will help to improve the benefits of project owner. To sum up, the project owner in the auction can hint his preference for utilization rate of renewable energy and comprehensive utilization rate to control the auction quality of micro-grid projects, and enhance the value of micro-grid projects and their own benefits. This is reasonable. The government is also through these two factors to control the quality of micro-grid development in reality [
1].The inspiration for energy supplier is that energy supplier can innovate the mechanism of utilization of renewable energy, and innovate method of the comprehensive utilization of various energy sources to enhance their type to win the auction.
Theorem 3. At the sub-game Nash equilibrium point of micro-grid project auction, with the increase of pre-bid costs and the number of energy suppliers participating in the bidding, the type of energy supplier will also increase at equilibrium.
Proof. The return function of equilibrium is:
Transform the equation, and we get:
Since both and are increasing functions, will increase as the bidding cost increases. Since , when does not change, increases, increases too. Theorem 3 is proved.
By Theorem 3, as a sinking cost, the pre-bid costs reflect pre-preparation for the auction of micro-grid project, and its level represents the degree of preliminary work of energy supplier. With the rise in pre-bid costs, the type of energy supplier will improve, that is, more excellent energy suppliers will join the auction of micro-grid project. When , , that is, the lower type of energy supplier can participate in auction, which reduces the auction quality of micro-grid project, and is detrimental to the interests of project owners. When the number of energy suppliers participating in the auction increases, the competition for micro-grid project auctions will increase, and the type of energy suppliers will increase when it is balanced, which will increase the returns of project owners. In summary, the project owner can design the corresponding mechanism before the auction to control the cost of pre-bidding and the number of energy suppliers to control the auction quality of the micro-grid project.
Theorem 4. In the auction of micro-grid project transfer, when energy suppliers bid at the optimal price, with the type of energy supplier increase, the returns of project owner and energy supplier also improve at equilibrium.
Proof. When , energy supplier does not participate in the auction. When , the return of energy supplier participation in the auction is 0. So, we consider the situation of .
By substituting Equation (27) in Equation (26), we get the Equation (28).
Take the derivative of Equation (28) with respect to
:
By substituting Equation (27) and equation
in Equation (30), we get:
Take the derivative of Equation (31) with respect to
:
Theorem 4 is proved. By Theorem 4, the project owner will pick the optimal type of energy supplier as the winner of the auction. We find that the equilibrium price is higher at this time since that and are an increasing function of . In summary, the project owner will not choose the lowest price of energy suppliers as the winner of the tender, instead, he will choose excellent technical types, high prices of energy suppliers as the winner of the auction on the basis of a comprehensive consideration of the type and price of energy suppliers.
Theorem 5. In the auction of micro-grid project transfer, the optimal strategy for energy suppliers to participate in the auction is based on their real power quality, energy storage quality, carbon emissions and price, not affected by external returns, such as electricity price, government subsidies.
Proof. Assuming that other energy suppliers do not change, the energy supplier of type
considers external returns, such as the electricity price, government subsidies, it will increase or decrease the type to
, then the energy supplier brings the returns
to the project owner and the probability of winning the auction becomes
. That is, the type
of energy supplier, by providing the type
to bring the project owner returns
to win the auction, then the probability that the energy supplier wins the auction is
. From
, the returns equation of energy supplier is:
Take the partial derivative of Equation (33) with respect to
:
Let
, that is:
By substituting Equation (27) in Equation (35), we get:
Take the derivative of Equation (36) with respect to
:
Due to Equation (37) and
,
Change
in Equation (38) with
, and by substituting it in
partial Equation (34):
When energy supplier wins the auction, the equation of its derivative satisfies:
At the same time, is an increasing function and greater than 0, so the only solution of Equation (39) is . Theorem 5 is proved.
The above analysis assumes that other energy suppliers remain unchanged. When other energy suppliers also consider external returns and change their own bidding type, the optimal strategy remains unchanged. The reasons are as follows; firstly, when all of the energy suppliers change the type with the same direction, the results of the auction, and the results of the optimal strategy to win the auction don't differ. Secondly, for the winning energy supplier, it will not gain more profits since it changes the type, which raises prices with their project costs increased as well. Therefore, the optimal strategy for energy supplier is participating in the auction based on their own real type.
By Theorem 5, although the external returns after winning the bid can increase the energy supplier’s returns, the energy supplier’s optimal bidding price is in accordance with their own real situation. If energy supplier does not bid in real terms, due to the existence of external returns, energy supplier will choose to reduce the tender price or to improve the quality of the bid to win the auction. When the energy supplier provides the same quality but lower bidding price, the energy supplier’s profits will decline. When the energy supplier provides the same price but higher quality bidding, it will increase the cost risk of energy supplier. As the cost increases, the energy supplier will reduce the quality of the micro-grid project, and may even terminate the implementation of the micro-grid project, when the returns of default are greater than the returns of the implementation. Both of these conditions undermine the benefits of the project owner and the energy supplier. In summary, although the energy supplier will reduce the price or improve the quality in practice in consideration of external returns, the optimal way for the energy supplier that participates in the micro-grid project bidding is to bid in accordance with their real situation. In this way, the returns of project owners and energy suppliers are optimal, thus maximizing total social benefits.
Theorem 6. Multi-attribute micro-grid project reverse auction mechanism in this article is an effective auction mechanism, in line with individual rational and incentive compatibility principle.
The mechanism design theory holds that an effective mechanism must satisfy the principle of individual rationality and incentive compatibility. From the Theorems 1 and 4, both the project owners and energy supplier are participating in micro-grid project auction to maximize their own returns, which meets the principle of individual rationality. At the same time, it can be seen from Theorems 4 and 5 that the energy supplier will bid according to its own real situation, not be affected by external returns, in which the individual return and collective return are in the optimal state, to meet the incentive compatibility principle. Therefore, the multi-attribute micro-grid project reverse auction mechanism in this article is an effective auction mechanism.