4.1. Monthly Vertical Deformations of the Earth’s Surface
Time series of monthly vertical deformations of the Earth’s surface Δ
h at the stations of the ASG-EUPOS network obtained from GNSS data Δ
hm-GNSS and Δ
hm-GRACE determined from GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite missions’ data are illustrated in
Figure 4.
The results presented in
Figure 4 exhibit a seasonal pattern over the area investigated. It is observed that maximum values of Δ
hm-GNSS and Δ
hm-GRACE occur during the summer–fall seasons and minimum values during the winter–spring seasons [
26]. This pattern can be attributed to the change in the mass loading caused by seasonal variations in the water mass with maximum values in March and minimum values in July–September [
26,
60]. For all GNSS stations investigated, the phase difference between Δ
hm-GNSS and Δ
hm-GRACE is less than one month, which can be considered negligible. Statistics of peak-to-peak variations of the seasonal pattern of the monthly vertical deformations are given in
Table 1.
The results presented in
Table 1 indicate that although the medians of peak-to-peak variations of the seasonal pattern in Δ
hm-GNSS and Δ
hm-GRACE are in a good agreement, the dispersion and the standard deviation of those variations for Δ
hm-GNSS with respect to the corresponding ones obtained from Δ
hm-GRACE are higher by a factor of approx. 3.5, and approx. 2.5, respectively. The higher dispersion and standard deviation of peak-to-peak variations in Δ
hm-GNSS may reveal that monthly vertical deformations obtained from GNSS data include the local deformation signal which cannot be detected from GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite missions’ data. The sources of such local deformation signal may be (i) thermoelastic deformation of the monuments caused by seasonal variation of the Earth’s temperature [
61] and (ii) poroelastic deformations caused by large variation of the water table [
62]. Besides these geophysical sources, systematic errors in GNSS observations such as mismodeling of daily and subdaily tidal signals [
63], presence of GPS draconitic signal [
37,
64] as well as the variation in the phase center and the local multipath, can also induce the specific Δ
hm-GNSS pattern for a station [
65].
Furthermore, along with the seasonal pattern of Δ
h obtained from GNSS and GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite missions data illustrated in
Figure 4, there are also linear trends in the monthly vertical deformation of the Earth’s surface (
Figure 5). Statistics of these linear trends are given in
Table 2. It should be mentioned that due to limited GNSS data at SKSL, SKSK and SKSV stations of the ASG-EUPOS network, linear trends of Δ
h have not been estimated at these sites. The results presented in
Figure 5 and
Table 2 indicate positive linear trends for Δ
hm-GRACE at the ASG-EUPOS sites, ranging from 0.67 mm/year to 1.86 mm/year. These trends can be ascribed to the annual water depletion over the territory of Poland, observed beyond the extreme land hydrology events, i.e., flooding and increased precipitation, occurred in 2010–2011 (e.g., [
66]). It should be noted that magnitudes of linear trends estimated from Δ
hm-GRACE depend on both the covering period and number of months used. The Δ
hm-GNSS reflects variable linear trends ranging from −1.47 mm/year to 2.16 mm/year. The reasons for these different linear trends can be attributed to the unstable monument [
67], anthropogenic factors such as subsidence of mining areas and over exploitation of groundwater [
68] and the presence of diverse geological structures such as Eastern European Precambrian platform, young western and middle Paleozoic platform as well as Carpathian region [
69]. As the factors causing linear trends in Δ
hm-GNSS and Δ
hm-GRACE are different, the distinctive mismatch between linear trends of Δ
hm-GNSS and Δ
hm-GRACE for some ASG-EUPOS GNSS stations such as PRZM, SWKI occurs. The linear trends in Δ
hm-GRACE in the case of ASG-EUPOS GNSS stations PRZM, SWKI can primarily be attributed to the manifestation of the elastic response of the water depletion over the area. On the other hand, the corresponding linear trends in Δ
hm-GNSS can be ascribed to the monumental instability of the ASG-EUPOS GNSS station, anthropogenic activity and water mass change occurring in limited spatial scales, e.g., few kilometers, as well as the presence of geological features. The uncommon linear trends in Δ
hm-GNSS and Δ
hm-GRACE may result in disagreements between vertical deformations of the Earth’s surface determined from GNSS and GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite missions’ data. Time series of Δ
hm-GNSS and Δ
hm-GRACE were thus detrended for further analysis.
In order to compare monthly vertical deformations of the Earth’s surface Δ
h determined from GNSS and GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite missions’ data, correlations and standard deviations of the differences between (1) Δ
hm-GNSS and Δ
hm-GRACE, and (2) detrended Δ
hm-GNSS and detrended Δ
hm-GRACE were computed.
Figure 6 depicts coefficients of correlations between Δ
h obtained from GNSS data and the corresponding ones obtained from GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite missions’ data at the locations of the ASG-EUPOS stations investigated. Statistics of these correlation coefficients are given in
Table 3. The results presented in
Figure 6 and
Table 3 reveal that at 68% of the ASG-EUPOS GNSS stations investigated, strong correlations (correlation coefficients ranging from 0.60 to 0.90) between Δ
hm-GNSS and Δ
hm-GRACE were obtained. Moderate/weak correlations (correlation coefficients ranging from 0.30 to 0.59) between Δ
hm-GNSS and Δ
hm-GRACE were observed at 30% of the stations investigated. At two ASG-EUPOS GNSS stations (PRZM and NWT1) correlations coefficients between Δ
hm-GNSS and Δ
hm-GRACE were found to be 0.13 and 0.29, respectively. After detrending Δ
hm-GNSS and Δ
hm-GRACE, strong correlations between Δ
hm-GNSS and Δ
hm-GRACE were obtained at 93% of the GNSS stations investigated. At 7% of the stations, moderate/weak correlations between Δ
hm-GNSS and Δ
hm-GRACE were obtained. Thus, values of correlations coefficients have clearly improved after detrending. For the ASG-EUPOS stations PRZM the value of the correlation coefficient increased to 0.71 after the removal of linear trends from Δ
hm-GNSS and Δ
hm-GRACE (cf.
Figure 4 and
Figure 5). On the contrary the value of the correlation coefficient at the station NWT1 does not change much despite removing the linear trend. However, it should be noted that the value of the coefficient of correlation between Δ
hm-GNSS and Δ
hm-GRACE in the case of NWT1 can be less reliable because of the shorter time span and gaps in Δ
h time series. Overall, the results presented in
Figure 6 show strong correlations between Δ
h obtained from GNSS data and corresponding ones determined using GRACE/GRACE-FO data. Strong correlations between Δ
h suggest that surface mass loading effects are the dominant contributor to the vertical deformation of the Earth’s surface over the area investigated and also indicate consistency of the GNSS and GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite missions’ data in monitoring surface mass loading effects. The cases of weak correlations between Δ
h obtained from GNSS data and the corresponding ones determined using GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite missions’ data may be attributed to variety of reasons such as local temporal variations of water masses and GNSS station dependent errors. However, in this study the values of correlation coefficients got improved after removing the linear trends and there are only two ASG-EUPOS stations (NWT1 and WIEL) for which values remain under 0.5. The case of NWT1 has already been stated above, and regarding WIEL the authors believe that the value of the correlation coefficient may get improved with the use of the longer data span.
The standard deviations of the differences between Δ
h obtained from GNSS data and the corresponding ones obtained from GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite missions’ data were illustrated in
Figure 7. Statistics of these standard deviations are given in
Table 4. They reveal that the mean value of standard deviations of the differences between Δ
hm-GNSS and Δ
hm-GRACE decreased by ca. 18% (i.e., from 4.2 to 3.4 mm) after removing the linear trend of Δ
h specified in
Figure 5. The reduced value of standard deviations of Δ
h differences after removing linear trend in Δ
h signifies the reduction of amplitude discrepancy between detrended Δ
hm-GNSS and detrended Δ
hm-GRACE in relation to that of Δ
hm-GNSS and Δ
hm-GRACE. Overall, the improvement, in terms of correlation coefficients (
Figure 6) and standard deviations of the Δ
h differences (
Figure 7), obtained after removing linear trends in Δ
h is observed. The results also indicate that although Δ
h obtained from GNSS and GRACE/GRACE-FO data agree well, linear trends in Δ
h can vary significantly. Therefore, detrended Δ
hm-GNSS are further used for estimating Δ
EWT.
4.2. Monthly Variations of Equivalent Water Thickness
Monthly variations of equivalent water thickness Δ
EWTm-GRACE and Δ
EWTm-GNSS were determined with the use of Equations (2) and (4) as well as data from GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite missions and GNSS data from the ASG-EUPOS CORS network, respectively. Moreover, monthly variations of equivalent water thickness Δ
EWTm-WGHM were obtained from the WGHM. In order to be consistent with the detrended Δ
EWTm-GNSS, linear trends in Δ
EWTm-GRACE and Δ
EWTm-WGHM were also removed. Then, combined solutions Δ
EWTm-CombSol were determined using Equation (5) with the weights
and
estimated by Equation (4) and Δ
EWT determined from GRACE/GRACE-FO and GNSS data. The ratio between these weights (i.e.,
:
) is illustrated in
Figure 8. The maximum (i.e., 0.73) and minimum (i.e., 0.14) values of this ratio were observed at the GNSS stations CHOJ and SIDZ, respectively. For ca. 72% of GNSS stations investigated (i.e., 69 GNSS stations of ASG-EUPOS network), the ratio between
and
is at the level of 0.46 ± 0.13. Time series of Δ
EWTm-GRACE, Δ
EWTm-GNSS and Δ
EWTm-CombSol as well as the corresponding Δ
EWTm-WGHM obtained from the WGHM are illustrated in
Figure 9. It is observed from the results presented in
Figure 9 that likewise Δ
h, there is also a seasonal pattern in Δ
EWT. This seasonal pattern can be attributed to seasonal mass variations related with the hydrological cycle over the territory of Poland. Statistics of peak-to-peak variations of the seasonal pattern of the monthly equivalent water thickness variations are given in
Table 5. From the values of medians and standard deviations, it is clear that overall Δ
EWTm-CombSol are in better agreement with Δ
EWTm-WGHM than those of Δ
EWTm-GNSS and Δ
EWTm-GRACE.
In order to assess the performance of GNSS data from ASG-EUPOS CORS network for the determination of Δ
EWT as well as for improving Δ
EWT determined from GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite missions’ data, correlations between (1) Δ
EWTm-GNSS and Δ
EWTWGHM, (2) Δ
EWTm-GRACE and Δ
EWTm-WGHM, and (3) Δ
EWTm-CombSol and Δ
EWTm-WGHM have been estimated (
Figure 10 and
Table 6). Strong correlations (correlation coefficients ranging from 0.60 to 0.70), between Δ
EWTm-GNSS and Δ
EWTm-WGHM were obtained at 32% of GNSS sites investigated; moderate/weak correlations (correlation coefficients ranging from 0.30 to 0.59), were obtained at 56% of the GNSS sites investigated; at about 12% of GNSS sites investigated, no correlations (correlation coefficient ranging from −0.41 to 0.29) have been obtained. In terms of correlations between Δ
EWTm-GRACE and Δ
EWTm-WGHM, strong correlations (correlation coefficients ranging from 0.60 to 0.79) have been obtained at 57% of the stations investigated; moderate/weak correlations (correlation coefficients ranging from 0.30 to 0.59) were obtained in the case of 38% of the stations investigated; at the remaining 5% of the GNSS sites investigated correlation coefficients range from −0.04 to 0.29. It is clear that the obtained correlations between Δ
EWTm-GRACE and Δ
EWTm-WGHM are much stronger than the corresponding ones between Δ
EWTm-GNSS and Δ
EWTm-WGHM. The reason for this may be ascribed to the fact that Δ
EWTm-GRACE is obtained directly from the monitoring of the gravitational effect of mass variations within the Earth’s system, while Δ
EWTm-GNSS is determined by inverting the response of the Earth’s surface to the mass variation at a point. The response of the Earth’s surface to the mass variation depends upon the underlying crustal properties. Moreover, Δ
EWTm-GNSS is sensitive to the local signal and the presence of any such signal could affect the Δ
EWTm-GNSS. At 83% of the GNSS sites investigated, strong correlation (correlation coefficients from 0.60 to 0.80) between Δ
EWTm-CombSol and Δ
EWTm-WGHM were obtained. At 16% of the GNSS stations investigated, the correlations are moderate/weak. For the remaining 1% of the GNSS stations investigated (one station) the correlation coefficient is 0.27. The values of coefficients of correlation between Δ
EWTm-CombSol and Δ
EWTm-WGHM have evidently been improved at 85% of the GNSS stations in comparison to values of coefficients of correlation between Δ
EWTm-GRACE and Δ
EWTm-WGHM. Furthermore, combining Δ
EWT obtained from GNSS data with the corresponding ones determined from GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite missions’ data does not change, however, the correlation coefficients’ values at 3% of the GNSS stations investigated. At 12% of the GNSS stations, the addition of GNSS data worsen the Δ
EWT in terms of correlations with the Δ
EWTm-WGHM. The good agreement, in terms of correlations, between Δ
EWTm-CombSol and Δ
EWTm-WGHM, indicates that GNSS data from CORS network stations provides in general valuable information to improve GRACE/GRACE-FO solutions for monitoring mass variation within the Earth’s system.
With the use of Equation (7), the differences δΔ
EWTm-GNSS, δΔ
EWTm-GRACE and δΔ
EWTm-CombSol were determined. Standard deviations of these differences were depicted in
Figure 11. Statistics of these standard deviations are given in
Table 7. The results presented in
Figure 11 and
Table 7 reveal that the mean values of standard deviations of differences δΔ
EWTm-GNSS, δΔ
EWTm-GRACE and δΔ
EWTm-CombSol are 7 cm, 5 cm and 4 cm, respectively. The values of standard deviations of δΔ
EWTm-CombSol decreased at 44 sites of the ASG-EUPOS CORS network in comparison to standard deviations of δΔ
EWTm-GRACE. At 48 sites of the ASG-EUPOS CORS network, standard deviations of δΔ
EWTm-CombSol remained the same as the values of standard deviations of δΔ
EWTm-GRACE. There are only 4 sites of the ASG-EUPOS CORS network where standard deviations of δΔ
EWTm-CombSol increased in comparison to that of the δΔ
EWTm-GRACE. Although there are improvements in the median values of standard deviations of δΔ
EWTm-CombSol in comparison to the corresponding ones of δΔ
EWTm-GRACE, they are limited to only 46% of GNSS sites investigated. This can be attributed to the amplitude differences, due the fact that GNSS data present Δ
EWT at points, while GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite mission data and the WGHM present Δ
EWT over an area. Furthermore, amplitude differences between Δ
EWTm-GRACE and Δ
EWTm-WGHM may be due to (i) the coarse spatial resolution of the GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite missions data (ca. 3° × 3° at the equator), and (ii) the spatial resolution of the WGHM (ca. 0.5° × 0.5°), as well as uncertainties of the WGHM related to modeling of storage capacity, fluxes, and human intervention [
70]. As the data from GNSS, GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite missions and the WGHM characterize with differences between each other, so incorporation of Δ
EWTm-GNSS to Δ
EWTm-GRACE may not reduce standard deviations of δΔ
EWTm-CombSol in comparison to that of δΔ
EWTm-GRACE. Since, there are only 4 GNSS stations where the addition of Δ
EWTm-GNSS to Δ
EWTm-GRACE increase the standard deviation values of δΔ
EWTm-CombSol, addition of Δ
EWTm-GNSS to Δ
EWTm-GRACE, in general, either reduced or did not change the values of standard deviations in comparison to the corresponding ones of δΔ
EWTm-GRACE.