1. Introduction
Sustainable development will have an impact on future generations [
1]. The Chinese government regards sustainable development as a major strategy to promote China’s national development. The Yellow River Basin (YB) is a crucial ecological and economic hub in China, contributing significantly to regional development and ecological civilization construction. The monitoring and quantitative evaluation of EEQ in the YB can provide a reference for environmental planning and ecological protection policy formulation and is of great importance in realizing regional sustainable development goals.
Remote sensing technology can efficiently and accurately objectively gather extensive ground feature information and has been widely applied in assessing EEQ [
2,
3]. The eco-environment is comprehensively affected by multiple factors, and the evaluation results of a single index can only represent changes in a certain aspect of the terrestrial ecological status [
4,
5]. As a result, scholars have started focusing on all-encompassing measures to better assess the regional EEQ comprehensively and effectively. The most commonly utilized EEQ models at present are the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) [
6], the ecological index (EI) [
7], the “pressure-state-response” conceptual framework (PSR) [
8] and the remote sensing-based ecological index (RSEI) [
7].
The AHP is a comprehensive decision-making method combining qualitative and quantitative methods, and since factor weights are relatively fixed in the analysis process, it is unable to deal with possible dynamic changes in indicators [
9]. The EI was developed by China’s Environmental Protection Administration in 2006 and can be used for annual EEQ evaluation in areas above the county level [
7]. During the process of EI construction, index weight selection is affected by subjectivity, thus affecting the accuracy of EEQ evaluation results. The PSR framework, proposed by the OECD, chose metrics from the three levels of pressure, state, and response, combining social, economic, and environmental elements [
10]. According to the PSR framework, the RSEI couples greenness, humidity, heat, and dryness to represent the overall ecological status of the area [
4]. The RSEI is based entirely on remote sensing image inversion and has strong comparability with the EI [
11]. It has been widely applied to EEQ evaluation at various spatial scales in cities [
12], mining areas [
13], nature reserves [
14], basins [
15], and countries [
16]. Compared with EI and AHP methods, RSEI is more conducive to the evaluation of the ecological status of uninterrupted land cover [
11].
Ecological conditions are affected by a variety of factors, which can be divided into natural factors such as terrain, soil, and climate, as well as human factors including social economy, among others [
17]. The analysis methods for driver identification mainly include correlation analysis, principal component analysis, linear regression analysis, geographical detectors, and spatial regression analysis [
18,
19,
20,
21]. Geographical detectors can detect both numerical and continuous data and can avoid the influence of multivariable collinearity [
22]. The geographically weighted regression (GWR) model is capable of establishing the spatial heterogeneity of parameters across different regions. Both geographical detectors and GWR take into account the spatial effects of data and have been widely used in driver analysis [
21,
22,
23].
The YB is a key belt connecting China’s eastern, central, and western regions. It is an important task in regional coordinated development in the YB to evaluate the EEQ and its changing patterns. In this study, we examined the spatial–temporal differences in the YB’s EEQ from 2000 to 2020 at the overall and provincial levels and identified the driving factors affecting EEQ. The following were the main focuses of this paper: (1) We performed quantitative analysis of EEQ based on the RSEI model. (2) The Theil–Sen (T-S) estimator and Mann–Kendall (M-K) method were used to analyze the spatiotemporal variation of RSEI. (3) The main factors affecting the spatial heterogeneity of RSEI were obtained by using the optimal parameter-based geographical detector (OPGD) model. (4) The GWR model was used to examine the responses of driving factors to RSEI changes.
4. Results
4.1. Spatial Distribution and Change Characteristics of EEQ
The RSEI was categorized into five classes via the Jenks method, namely Poor, Fair, Moderate, Good, and Excellent. The RSEI classes were lower in the north and higher in the south (
Figure 4). The Poor and Fair entries were concentrated in the upper and middle reaches of the YB, including Lanzhou and Baiyin in GS, IM, and the arid zone of central NX. The Moderate and Good entries were primarily found in the Yellow River’s origin areas and the YB’s lower reaches. The Excellent entries were primarily found in the Ruoergai-Maqu Ecological Function Reserve, the Qilian Mountains, and the Qinling Mountains.
At both the provincial and the land cover levels, the RSEI classes in the YB had regional characteristics (
Figure 5a). The ecological condition of NX and IM was not good, with more than 60% of this area being categorized as Poor or Fair. The ecological condition of other provinces was higher, with the majority of regions categorized as Moderate and above (an area exceeding 70% of the whole). SC had the highest categorized ecological condition, with more than 90% of its total area classified as Good or Excellent. The distribution of RSEI classes varied across different land cover types (
Figure 5b). The distribution of RSEI classes in forestland, shrubland, and wetland was mainly Good and Excellent, while barren land was almost entirely Poor. The ecological condition of cropland, grassland, and impervious land was dominated by multiple RSEI classes.
The T-S estimator and M-K test were used to perform a statistical analysis of EEQ changes in the YB during the period of 2000–2020 (
Figure 6,
Table 3). A total of 21.86% of EEQ improvement areas were mainly distributed in northern QH, SC, eastern GS, southern NX, northeastern IM, western SN, and SX. Of these, 16.53% were significant improvement areas, mainly located in ecological function protection areas on the Loess Plateau. The portion of land that was degraded was 4.27%, while the portion that was significantly degraded was 2.63%. Most of the deteriorated regions were located in the Ningxia Plain urban agglomeration, Hetao Plain in IM, the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration (centered on Xi’an in SN), the Jinzhong urban agglomeration in SX, HA, and SD.
Table 4 shows the RSEI trend change types in the provinces of the YB from 2000 to 2020. Throughout this timeframe, aside from HA and SD, the ratio of land improvement areas in the other seven provinces exceeded that of the land degradation area. The change ratio of land ecological status in the nine provinces in descending order was SX > SN > SD > HA > GS > NX > IM > QH > SC. SX and SN showed the most obvious improvement in EEQ, with area improvement rates reaching 35.93% and 31.45%, respectively—far greater than the land degradation area. The degradation of EEQ was most obvious in HA and SD, with area degradation ratios of 17.76% and 18.27%, respectively.
Table 5 shows the RSEI trend change types in different land cover change types of the YB from 2000 to 2020. The seven types of land cover in the area without conversion and the top nine types of land cover change were selected. In areas where the land cover has not been changed, the EEQ of cropland and impervious land has changed greatly, with the proportion of change being more than 38%. Only the EEQ of impervious areas has been degraded, and the EEQ of the other land cover has been improved. Changes in land cover change are often accompanied by changes in ecological conditions. Except for BA-GR and GR-BA, the ecological area change rates of other transfer types ranged from 22.6% to 59.58%. In general, the RSEI index can reflect the difference in EEQ among different land cover types and the change in EEQ brought about by type conversion.
4.2. Analysis of Driving Factors of RSEI Spatial Differentiation
The explanatory power of driving factors was as follows: AWC > PRE > IMD > LCT > SLO > TMP > ELE > GDP > SE (
Table 6). AWC, PRE, and IMD were the dominant factors of RSEI, with 5-year mean q values of 0.787, 0.614, and 0.421, respectively. LCT, SLO, TMP, and ELE also have an important impact on EEQ, with five-year average q values of 0.330, 0.314, 0.297, and 0.233, respectively. The explanatory power of GDP and SE is relatively low.
The interactive detection analysis results clearly show that the RSEI in the YB is influenced by both bilinear enhancement and nonlinear enhancement (
Figure 7). This suggests that the combined effect of these two factors is more significant than that of a signal factor. The explanatory power of AWC∩ELE and AWC∩LCT for the interaction of factors is significantly stronger than that of other factors. Although GDP and SE may not individually have a strong impact, their combined influence on the spatial differentiation features of the RSEI is evident in interactive detection.
Figure 8 shows the factor detection results of provinces in the YB. In QH, SC, and GS, natural factors are the main influencing factors. In NX, IM, SN, SX, HA, and SD, both natural and human factors show a strong influence. The interactive detection results show that the factors selected in this study are reasonable, and the interaction between factors can explain the spatial differentiation characteristics of RSEI well (
Table 7).
In conclusion, topographic factors, soil factors, meteorological factors, and human factors jointly influence the formation of spatial patterns of regional RSEI. Natural factors can explain most of the spatial differentiation characteristics of RSEI. The influence of human factors on RSEI can be strongly demonstrated when they interact with other factors.
4.3. Response of the Driving Factors to EEQ Changes
To explore the influence of changes in driving factors on the change in RSEI, the GWR model was performed with the grid difference of PRE, TMP, and IMD as the independent variable and the grid difference of RSEI as the dependent variable (
Table 8). By comparing the absolute value of the regression coefficient, the dominant driving factor of each grid was obtained, and the results are shown in
Figure 9 and
Figure 10.
According to the number of positive and negative regression coefficients, PRE and TMP have a slight positive influence on RSEI change in the YB, while IMD has a significant positive influence on RSEI change. From left to right, the dominant role of meteorological factors (PRE and TMP) on RSEI changes gradually decreases, while the dominant role of human factors on RSEI changes gradually increases. Meteorological factors almost dominate the RSEI changes in QH and SC, while IMD almost dominates the RSEI change in SD, with the proportion of dominant grids exceeding 90% from 2000 to 2020. From 2000 to 2005, 2005 to 2010, 2010 to 2015, and 2015 to 2020, the leading role of driving factors in different provinces of the YB was judged by summing the number of grids dominated by driving factors. The provinces dominated by PRE are QH and SC, the provinces dominated by TMP are GS, NX, IM, and SN, and the provinces dominated by IMD are HA and SD. It is worth noting that the number of grids dominated by IMD showed an increasing trend during the study period, indicating that the impact of human activities on EEQ change is becoming more and more obvious.
6. Conclusions
This research examines the patterns and drivers of RSEI in the YB region from 2000 to 2020. The distribution of EEQ in the YB area has regional characteristics, and the overall distribution was low in the north and high in the south. SC and IM had the highest and lowest EEQ, respectively. Throughout the research period, the improved area made up 21.86%, while the degraded area made up 4.27%. In the YB provinces, the degraded area of HA and SD is greater than the improved area. Soil-available water content (AWC), annual precipitation (PRE), and distance from impervious surfaces (IMD) were the main factors affecting the spatial distribution of RSEI. Precipitation, temperature, and IMD have important effects on RSEI variation in the YB, whereas the area dominated by precipitation and temperature fluctuated continuously during the study period, but the area dominated by IMD showed a significant increasing trend. The dominant factors vary among provinces. From west to east, IMD has an increasing influence on EEQ. Future research will focus on analyzing the changes and factors influencing EEQ in the YB at an annual scale with a more comprehensive approach, aiming to offer valuable insights for decision making related to ecological development and regional growth.