Open AccessArticle
Duration of Reduced CA19-9 Levels Is a Better Prognostic Factor Than Its Rate of Reduction for Unresectable Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer
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Ko Tomishima, Shigeto Ishii, Toshio Fujisawa, Muneo Ikemura, Hiroto Ota, Daishi Kabemura, Mako Ushio, Taito Fukuma, Sho Takahashi, Wataru Yamagata, Yusuke Takasaki, Akinori Suzuki, Koichi Ito, Hiroaki Saito, Akihito Nagahara and Hiroyuki Isayama
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Abstract
A decrease in carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9 levels has been proposed as a prognostic marker for survival and recurrence in patients with pancreatic cancer. We evaluated the association between duration of reduced CA 19-9 levels during 6 months after treatment and long-term survival
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A decrease in carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9 levels has been proposed as a prognostic marker for survival and recurrence in patients with pancreatic cancer. We evaluated the association between duration of reduced CA 19-9 levels during 6 months after treatment and long-term survival for 79 patients with unresectable locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC). We calculated the differences between pretreatment and monthly CA19-9 levels. We categorized 71 patients with decreases in CA19-9 levels into three groups based on the duration of these reduced levels (>2, >3, and >4 months). The cut-off level for long-term (more than 2 years) survival was identified as a 44% reduction from the baseline, using a ROC curve. A reduction duration >2 months was not associated with overall survival (
p = 0.1), while >3 months was significantly associated with survival (
p =.04). In multivariate analysis, a reduction duration >3 months predicted a good long-term prognosis (odds ratio = 5.75; 95% confidence interval = 1.47–22.36;
p < 0.01). In patients with unresectable LAPC, the duration of reduced CA19-9 levels for more than 3 months, rather than the rate of reduction in CA19-9 levels, during 6 months after treatment was significantly associated with good prognosis.
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