An Overview of Population Dynamics in Romanian Carpathians (1912–2021): Factors, Spatial Patterns and Urban–Rural Disparities
Abstract
:1. Introduction and Literature Review
2. Materials and Methods
- -
- 1912–1930, a period marked by the First World War, the Carpathians constituting a front line, and by the establishment of Greater Romania;
- -
- 1930–1948, a period marked by the amplification of the exploitation of Carpathian resources and by the Second World War;
- -
- 1948–1966, a period during which the installation of the communist regime took place, with the specific features of the Carpathian area (this remained outside the plans for the collectivization of agriculture);
- -
- 1966–1992, a period during which rural exodus peaked at the national level, as well as the extensive development of certain mining activities;
- -
- 1992–2020, marked by the transition to a market economy, which affected the Carpathian area in a specific way through the loss of attractiveness generated by urbanization and increased industrialization. For each of these periods the average annual growth rate was calculated, resulting in five distinct PCAs that capture the differentiated way in which the factors expressed by the explanatory variables acted. The quality of the model was tested by calculating r2 and the analyses were performed in XlStat.
3. Results
3.1. Typology of Population Dynamics in the Romanian Carpathians (1912–2021)
3.2. The Typology of Population Dynamics in the Romanian Carpathians (1912–2021) by Geographical Units and Urban–Rural Area
3.3. Factors Explaining the Differentiated Evolution of the Rural Population in the Romanian Carpathians
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
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Variable | Definition, Measurement Methods | Data Source |
---|---|---|
IZO | Share of population living in settlements on interfluvial ridges and secondary valleys (% of total population, distinct for each period). | [DTM]. |
ALT | Average altitude of settlements (meters). | [DTM] |
PAD | Degree of afforestation (% of total area, average years 1992–2019, used as invariant for the whole study interval). | [NSI]. |
FP | Share of area under grassland and meadows (% of total area, average of years 1992–2019, used as invariant for the whole study period). | [NSI]. |
ARB | Share of arable land (% of total area, average years 1992–2019, used as invariant for the whole study interval). | [NSI]. |
DH | Gross habitat density (settlements per 100 km2). | [RECENS 1912...2011] [NSI] |
DG | Overall population density at the beginning of the period (loc./km2), distinct for each period. | [RECENS 1912...2011] [NSI], [ICS]. |
IV | Population ageing index (Iv = V/T; +60/0–14 years), distinct for each period according to population censuses. | [RECENS 1912...2011] [NSI], [ICS]. |
URB | Degree of urbanization (% urban population), distinct for each period, according to population censuses. | [RECENS 1912...2011], [NSI]. |
RUR | Degree of rurality (% population employed in agriculture), distinct for the last three periods according to population censuses. Values from the 1966 census were used as invariant for the first two periods. | [RECENS 1912...2011], [NSI]. |
EMG | Share of the long-term migrant population in the 2002 and 2011 censuses (% of total population), used for the latter period only. | [RECENS 1912...2011]. |
SOM | Share of unemployed in the 2002 and 2011 censuses and in 2019 (% of working population), used only for the latter period. | [NSI]. |
VEN | Average income calculated for the period 2002–2011 (euro/place), based on the average specific wage by industry and social services. | [NSI]. |
Category | Variable | Description | Source |
---|---|---|---|
Predominant geological structure | CRIST | Predominantly crystalline rocks | [GR] |
CRIST-CC | Crystalline rocks and limestones | ||
FLIS | Carpathian flysch | ||
SED | Sedimentary rocks | ||
VULC | Volcanic rocks | ||
Economic profile | FOREST | Economic profile based on logging (over 50% of the active population employed) | [NSI] [RECENS...] |
FORTUR | Economic profile based on logging and tourism (over 50% of the active population employed) | ||
MINFOR | Economic profile based on logging and mining, including building materials (over 50% of the active population employed) | ||
MINTUR | Economic profile based on mining and tourism (over 50% of the active population employed) | ||
TUR | Tourism-based economic profile (over 50% of the active population employed) | ||
Ethnic structure of population | EN | Predominantly Romanian population | [NSI] [RECENS...] |
EN-IUG | Predominantly Romanian population, with South Slavic minorities | ||
RO-SLO | Predominantly Romanian population, with Slovak and Czech minorities | ||
RO-UC | Predominantly Romanian population with Ukrainian minorities | ||
EN-UN | Predominantly Romanian population with Hungarian minorities | ||
UN | Predominantly Hungarian population | ||
UN-RO | Predominantly Hungarian population with Romanian minorities |
Size Category (Inhabitants) | Number of Localities | Numerical Evolution of the Population (1912 = 100%) | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1930 | 1941 | 1948 | 1956 | 1966 | 1977 | 1992 | 2002 | 2011 | 2021 | ||
0–10 | 154 | 99 | 105 | 98 | 96 | 99 | 40 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 |
10–100 | 663 | 97 | 101 | 97 | 95 | 88 | 71 | 50 | 41 | 31 | 25 |
100–250 | 538 | 97 | 100 | 96 | 95 | 93 | 83 | 65 | 58 | 49 | 43 |
250–500 | 552 | 99 | 104 | 99 | 103 | 106 | 99 | 83 | 77 | 68 | 62 |
500–1000 | 479 | 100 | 107 | 103 | 108 | 110 | 110 | 99 | 95 | 87 | 82 |
1000–2500 | 364 | 105 | 110 | 106 | 121 | 130 | 132 | 127 | 122 | 115 | 112 |
2500–10,000 | 140 | 106 | 116 | 113 | 134 | 157 | 183 | 201 | 188 | 175 | 170 |
Over 10,000 | 34 | 118 | 140 | 132 | 192 | 265 | 385 | 501 | 448 | 395 | 371 |
Time | 1912–1930 | 1930–1948 | 1948–1966 | 1966–1992 | 1992–2021 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Model quality | r2 | 0.7853 | 0.3410 | 0.6737 | 0.6798 | 0.5859 |
Explanatory variable (quantitative components) | IZO | 0.285 | −0.010 | 0.343 | 0.526 | 0.106 |
ALT | 0.491 | 0.178 | 0.112 | 0.007 | 0.195 | |
PAD | 0.063 | 0.152 | −0.021 | −0.310 | −0.002 | |
PF | −0.074 | −0.283 | 0.035 | 0.105 | −0.089 | |
ARB | −0.147 | −0.017 | −0.151 | −0.265 | 0.123 | |
DH | 0.267 | −0.022 | 0.251 | 0.180 | 0.378 | |
DG | −0.254 | −0.195 | −0.103 | 0.428 | 0.240 | |
IV | 0.733 | 0.322 | 0.478 | 0.573 | 0.501 | |
URB | 0.558 | 0.150 | 0.778 | 0.798 | 0.031 | |
RUR | 0.333 | 0.190 | 0.559 | 0.680 | −0.099 | |
EMIG | no data | no data | no data | no data | −0.066 | |
SOM | no data | no data | no data | no data | 0.088 | |
VEN | no data | no data | no data | no data | −0.133 |
Time | 1912–1930 | 1930–1948 | 1948–1966 | 1966–1992 | 1992–2021 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Explanatory variable (qualitative components) | Geological structure | CRIST | −0.091 | −0.010 | −0.112 | −0.102 | 0.081 |
CRIST-CC | −0.011 | 0.212 | −0.190 | −0.346 | −0.332 | ||
FLIS | 0.127 | −0.026 | 0.140 | 0.142 | 0.221 | ||
SED | 0.027 | −0.189 | 0.203 | 0.408 | −0.008 | ||
VULC | −0.048 | 0.050 | −0.070 | −0.196 | 0.127 | ||
Economic profile | FOREST | −0.329 | −0.199 | −0.085 | −0.114 | −0.025 | |
FORTUR | 0.136 | 0.102 | −0.137 | 0.120 | 0.335 | ||
MINFOR | 0.425 | −0.125 | 0.381 | 0.220 | −0.168 | ||
MINTUR | −0.145 | −0.030 | 0.068 | −0.152 | −0.328 | ||
TUR | 0.232 | 0.359 | 0.017 | 0.021 | 0.018 | ||
Ethnic structure | RO | −0.051 | 0.131 | −0.010 | −0.243 | −0.384 | |
RO-IUG | −0.147 | −0.160 | 0.076 | 0.023 | −0.178 | ||
RO-SLO | 0.053 | 0.000 | −0.122 | 0.254 | 0.020 | ||
RO-UC | 0.237 | −0.332 | 0.084 | 0.063 | 0.278 | ||
RO-UN | −0.142 | 0.055 | 0.052 | 0.069 | 0.196 | ||
UN | −0.013 | 0.052 | −0.094 | 0.194 | 0.187 | ||
UN-RO | 0.160 | 0.077 | −0.072 | 0.031 | 0.191 |
Region | Landform | Share in the Total Population (Rural Areas Only) | Population Density | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1912 | 1930 | 1948 | 1966 | 1992 | 2021 | 1912 | 2021 | ||
Eastern Carpathians | Interfluves | 3.9 | 4 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 10 | 10 |
Depressions | 46.6 | 46.1 | 45.4 | 42.4 | 43 | 45.6 | 42 | 49 | |
Main valleys | 13.1 | 13.5 | 13.8 | 14.6 | 15.5 | 15 | 25 | 34 | |
Secondary valleys | 36.3 | 36.4 | 36.7 | 38.5 | 37.8 | 36.1 | 18 | 21 | |
Southern Carpathians | Interfluves | 15.6 | 15.9 | 15.6 | 13.3 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 22 | 11 |
Depressions | 23 | 22.7 | 21.9 | 21.1 | 21.2 | 23.5 | 33 | 28 | |
Main valleys | 6.9 | 7 | 7.4 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 10 | 17 | 19 | |
Secondary valleys | 54.6 | 54.4 | 55.1 | 55.9 | 57.8 | 57.1 | 15 | 13 | |
Western Carpathians | Interfluves | 18.1 | 18.6 | 19.2 | 18.8 | 15.3 | 12.5 | 27 | 9 |
Depressions | 30 | 29.8 | 29.3 | 30.3 | 33.6 | 37.5 | 47 | 30 | |
Main valleys | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 36 | 25 | |
Secondary valleys | 46.8 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 44.6 | 43.7 | 42.8 | 37 | 17 |
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Muntele, I.; Istrate, M.; Athes, H.; Bănică, A. An Overview of Population Dynamics in Romanian Carpathians (1912–2021): Factors, Spatial Patterns and Urban–Rural Disparities. Land 2023, 12, 1756. https://doi.org/10.3390/land12091756
Muntele I, Istrate M, Athes H, Bănică A. An Overview of Population Dynamics in Romanian Carpathians (1912–2021): Factors, Spatial Patterns and Urban–Rural Disparities. Land. 2023; 12(9):1756. https://doi.org/10.3390/land12091756
Chicago/Turabian StyleMuntele, Ionel, Marinela Istrate, Haralambie Athes, and Alexandru Bănică. 2023. "An Overview of Population Dynamics in Romanian Carpathians (1912–2021): Factors, Spatial Patterns and Urban–Rural Disparities" Land 12, no. 9: 1756. https://doi.org/10.3390/land12091756
APA StyleMuntele, I., Istrate, M., Athes, H., & Bănică, A. (2023). An Overview of Population Dynamics in Romanian Carpathians (1912–2021): Factors, Spatial Patterns and Urban–Rural Disparities. Land, 12(9), 1756. https://doi.org/10.3390/land12091756