1. Introduction
Ecosystem services (ESs) are defined as the direct and indirect benefits people obtain from ecological systems [
1,
2]. Although ESs play a critical role in ensuring overall human wellbeing, current estimates suggest that most of them are declining worldwide. For example, Costanza et al. [
3] reported that the global loss in ESs due to land use changes was between
$4.3 and
$20.2 trillion/year from 1997 to 2011. Assigning monetary values to these ESs is important for raising awareness about ESs to decision makers [
4,
5] and society, at large [
6]. Correct valuation of ESs is inherently dependent upon the quantification of ESs [
7] which in turn is dependent upon the scale of the input data. Defining the role of scale on the models which are typically used for quantifying ESs is essential for developing an understanding about the possible changes in ESs relative to changes in resolution and extent of the input data. This is especially true, as existing studies use different scales for quantifying ESs [
8]. This information could directly feed into policies which focus on maintaining or enhancing ESs over a landscape [
9].
The process of quantifying ESs typically integrates spatial and temporal data within a modeling platform resulting in a situation where the outputs are sensitive to the characteristics of the input data [
10]. Coarser datasets aggregate information and are more likely to lose heterogeneity and variation [
11], causing rare land cover classes with small patch sizes to disappear [
12] or altering the terrain’s surface water flow itself [
13]. Similarly, substantial differences in the provision of ESs occur when coarser and finer resolution land use datasets are used for quantifying ESs for the same geographical area [
12]. Kandziora et al. [
14] found that ESs were overestimated in coarser land use maps relative to finer datasets. However, Konarska et al. [
15] found a difference of 200% in the monetary values of ESs while comparing outputs obtained using the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP) land cover dataset with 1 km spatial resolution with the outputs obtained using National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) with 30 m spatial resolution. Apart from land cover data, another crucial data for modeling ESs is the digital elevation model (DEM). Although finer spatial data resolution is recommended as the input data in modeling ESs [
13], the impact of different DEM resolutions on the model output is not linear and, therefore, unpredictable [
16]. For instance, Redhead et al. [
17] found that the model output was little affected by DEM and land cover when spatial resolutions less or equal to 100 m were used, but significant effects were found when datasets coarser than 100 m were used.
The complexity of nature is studied using three perspectives particularly in landscape ecology: process, pattern, and scale [
18]. The interactions between process and pattern are investigated under a selected scale. Moreover, the scale can be divided into two components of resolution and the extent of the mapped area [
8]. A challenge for assigning social, economic, and ecological values to ESs is the inconsistency in methods used for quantifying and mapping ESs across existing studies [
19,
20]. One major cause of this inconsistency is the use of different spatial data resolution across studies, resulting in outputs which are hard to compare. In addition, studies modeling ESs have a large variation in the spatial extent [
8]. In this context, analyzing the effects of simultaneous changes in spatial data resolution and the spatial extent on the outcome of ESs is crucial for better understanding the full effect of scale on the quantification of ESs [
9]. This becomes even more important as there is a lack of studies comparing the impact of simultaneous changes in resolution and extent on ESs using similar modeling assumptions for a selected geographical area [
21].
Many studies had applied ES models to map and quantify provision of ESs to clarify key areas for conservation and to serve as guidelines for policymakers. For instance, Krueger and Jordan [
22] applied the Watershed Management Priority Index (WMPI) to identify conservation priorities aiming to maintain water quality within the Lower Savannah watershed in Georgia, USA, mainly by protecting forests and well-managed agricultural fields. Brown and Quinn [
23] used several InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) models, including the NDR (Nutrient Delivery Ratio) model, to determine the effects of zoning regulations in improving or maintaining provision of ESs in urban watersheds and found that zoning was effective in preventing degradation of only one ES out of five. Butsic et al. [
24] also used the NDR model in their analysis that applied InVEST models to assess the effectiveness of the establishment of conservation easements in providing a variety of ESs and their results suggested that protected areas have relatively higher values of ESs. All these modeling approaches require a prior definition of which scale to use in the analysis. Moreover, such studies have the potential to influence decision makers when allocating funds for conservation. However, a question remains: How would the outcome and conclusions of these studies have changed if other scales, including spatial resolution and extent, were used instead? As a result, this study becomes even more important as we bring an alternative perspective for increasing the comprehensiveness of the policymaking process through better modeling of ESs.
To assist practitioners in addressing the role that different scales play on ES modeling, this study used the InVEST NDR model, which maps and quantifies the delivery of nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) to water streams and is one of the most employed models within all the models present in InVEST. The NDR model was used for investigating the joint effects of resolution of input spatial data (land cover, DEM, and precipitation) and spatial extent on the outputs generated by this model under common modeling assumptions. This study focused on a set of 57 watersheds divided into six physiographical regions [
25] located within the state of Georgia in the southern USA and covering more than half a million hectares. The developed understanding about the impact of scale on ESs would directly feed into landscape level planning processes which will further guide practices for managing natural resources in a manner where ESs are not only maintained but enhanced for society welfare.
4. Discussion
This study aimed to provide information to researchers on how the results of the NDR model can vary with respect to the resolution of spatial data and spatial extent. A total of three DEMs, two land cover datasets, and three precipitation grids were used in unique combinations as input spatial data for the model. All parameters required, except by TFA which was calculated according to DEM spatial resolution as suggested by Sharp et al. [
13], were set the same across all scenarios, so the variation in the output can be attributed solely to different spatial data used. A control scenario (Baseline) using a 30 m DEM, the NLCD land cover, and the precipitation grid retrieved from PRISM was set. Suitable multivariate regression models were employed to verify the influence of the spatial resolution of input data on the NDR model output at two spatial extents (the state of Georgia and six physiographical regions within the state).
Although the nitrogen and phosphorus export fit models for all watersheds had low R2 (nitrogen: 0.232 and phosphorus: 0.345), DEM and land cover were significant at a 5% significance level. The model may not be used to precisely predict the percentage of nutrient export according to changes in spatial data resolution, but as the F-statistic and p-value of both nitrogen and phosphorus models indicated, there was a relationship among independent variables and the dependent variable, which can certainly be interpreted as an evidence that these DEM and land cover datasets significantly affected the nutrient export.
Consistently with other studies [
16,
17], changes in DEM caused a significant impact on the output, but the direction of this impact varied across models. Nutrient export of scenarios using NLCD was highest when the 90 m DEM were used, and lowest for 10 m DEM for all watersheds. Alternatively, a different trend was observed in scenarios using the GlobCover, where highest exports were modeled in 30 m DEM scenarios and lowest in 10 m DEM scenarios. These results indicated finer DEM resolutions do not necessarily imply higher or lower nutrient export, and it was not possible to devise an absolute trend regarding DEM resolution for the full study area.
When regression models were fit using watersheds grouped by physiographical regions, the 90 m DEM was not significant predicting nitrogen exports only in the Blue Ridge, while this variable was not significant in the aforementioned region and Piedmont for phosphorus, which indicated that replacing the 30 m DEM by the 90 m DEM did not have a significant impact in the output of these regions. The outputs of both nutrients for the other three regions were significantly affected when the 90 m DEM was used, with these models predicting an increase in nutrient export relative to the Baseline. The presence of the 10 m DEM had a negative effect in all models but was not found significant in the model predicting phosphorus export in the Southern Coastal Plains region. In addition, models using the 10 m DEM predicted overall lowest exports when all other variables were constant in the model, suggesting that such DEM resolution may be associated with lower exports.
As expected due to possible inconsistencies matching land cover classes between the two datasets used in this study, and to a difference in spatial resolution, land cover significantly influenced nutrient export in both models’ fit in the full study area. Although the GlobCover is a coarser land cover dataset and consequently aggregates smaller and sparse land cover classes into more representative classes causing the disappearance of sensitive areas from the final grid, such as wetlands, this aggregation also causes agricultural, pasture, and urban lands with presence of trees and shrubs to be classified into a mosaic category, and be finally assigned lower levels of nutrient loads, as previously investigated by Avelino et al. [
11] and Grêt-Regamey et al. [
12].
Among all regression models predicting nutrient export for the five physiographical regions, the nitrogen model for the Blue Ridge was the only one that the presence of the GlobCover positively impacted the output. Moreover, the phosphorus model for this region was negatively impacted by this variable, but this impact was the smallest due to the presence of GlobCover in terms of magnitude. Apparently, the watersheds within this region have fragmented occurrence of agricultural and urban lands according to the NLCD, which were aggregated into more common land cover classes present in this region, such as evergreen and deciduous forest, in the GlobCover dataset. This aggregation itself would cause a nitrogen export decrease in GlobCover models outputs compared to NLCD models, due to higher nutrient loads associated with agricultural and urban lands. However, the GlobCover identifies vast areas of evergreen forests in this region while the NLCD classifies these areas mainly as deciduous forest. Since evergreen forests were assigned with higher nutrient loads, it was expected that areas covered by this class would export more nutrients to water bodies than deciduous forest areas.
The overall highest impact in regional models was predicted by the phosphorus model fit for the Ridge/Appalachian region, with an expected decrease of 61.7% when GlobCover replaced NLCD. This high decrease can be explained by differences in land cover classification in these two datasets. Many pixels that the GlobCover classified as deciduous forest in this region were classified as pasture by the NLCD and consequently assigned with very distinct nutrient loads. The Southern Coastal Plains nitrogen regional model was negatively affected by GlobCover, which was not significant for phosphorus. Vast wetlands areas identified by NLCD in this region were classified mostly as mixed or evergreen forest, less often as deciduous, by GlobCover. Although lower nutrient loads were assigned to wetlands compared to forests, and an increase in the nutrient export was expected when using GlobCover, agricultural lands were mostly classified into mosaic categories or grasslands and assigned lower nutrient loads, resulting in this predicted decrease.
Three precipitation grids were tested to verify the influence of rainfall modeling nutrient exports using the NDR model. The PRISM grid was used in the Baseline Scenario, but when it was replaced by other grids, no significant effect was observed in the output for all watersheds combined. As shown in
Figure 3, this grid had a similar spatial distribution compared to the grid created using data collected from weather stations in Georgia. Due to this similar distribution, results were not expected to vary drastically in scenarios switching only these two spatial data as suggested by Redhead et al. [
17], and in fact, this lack of variation was observed for the models using all watersheds of the study area. The average precipitation grid had an obvious different distribution compared to the others, and it was expected that these differences would be reflected in the outputs, causing a significant change in nutrient exports predictions. Surprisingly, this precipitation grid was not significant for all watersheds combined, suggesting that all precipitation grids used in this study yielded overall similar results by holding all other variables at constant values.
Results were clearly different when watersheds were grouped according to physiographical regions. For both nitrogen and phosphorus export, the precipitation grid created using weather stations data was significant in two regions (Blue Ridge and Piedmont), indicating that although the rainfall distribution looks similar in these two grids, this distribution was different enough in these two regions for significantly changing the outputs for both nutrients. The Blue Ridge region historically has the highest annual average precipitation in the state [
37]. Since the NDR model relates the average of the precipitation grid with the pixel value for rainfall to account for runoff potential [
13], regions with extreme values of precipitation within the study area, such as the Blue Ridge, may be more sensitive to changes in precipitation grid. The PRISM grid provided the highest rainfall for this region compared to the other two grids. This is consistent with the coefficients of the regional model for this region, which predicted a decrease in nitrogen and phosphorus exports when the PRISM grid was replaced by the weather stations grid.
Regional models outputs for nitrogen exports were significantly influenced by the replacement of the PRISM grid by the average grid in all regions, except Ridge/Appalachian. It was observed that in drier regions, such as the Southern Coastal Plains, this grid was significant with a positive coefficient, indicating that when the average grid was used in this region, an increase in nitrogen export was predicted compared to results using the PRISM grid. Moreover, the regional model of the Blue Ridge, which has a precipitation level above the average, predicted a negative coefficient for the presence of the average grid, suggesting a significant decrease in nitrogen export compared to the presence of PRISM. This was somehow expected because the average grid leveled out rainfall across all regions. However, the presence of the average grid was not significant in four of the regional phosphorus models. This grid significantly affected only the Blue Ridge model, predicting a decrease when the PRISM was replaced by the average grid.
5. Conclusions
InVEST models are experiencing an increase in popularity, and many studies have been using them to quantify and valuate ESs for a variety of reasons, such as policy-making and scientific research. Sensitivity analyses of these models help the users’ community to understand possible changes in the outputs caused by variations in input data. This study provided an analysis on how the results of the NDR model were affected by variations in the required input spatial data, which are DEM, land cover, and precipitation. In addition, the influence of these spatial variables under two different extents were analyzed. Overall, the DEMs used in this study caused a significant impact on the model’s output. However, this impact did not follow a consistent trend across spatial resolution and extent.
The results in both extents were significantly affected by the two land cover datasets. These changes could have been caused mainly by inconsistency when matching the land cover classes of these two datasets or by differences in land cover classification itself. The GlobCover is a coarse dataset and aggregates less representative areas into broad classes. This aggregation can cause both negative and positive changes in the NDR model’s output compared to finer resolution datasets (e.g., NLCD). Classes assigned with low nutrient loads, such as wetlands, can be incorporated into more common classes assigned with higher nutrient loads, such as forests. Alternatively, agricultural fields, pasture, and low intensity developed areas can be classified as a mosaic of vegetation, being assigned with lower nutrient loads. The precipitation grids used to analyze the model did not significantly impact the output when used in the full extent of the study area. However, different grids yielded distinct results in some models applied to physiographical regions in Georgia.
Our study clearly indicates that the resolution and extent of the input data could significantly affect the quantification of ESs. This further suggests that policymakers should be cognizant about the resolution and extent of input data used in any analysis before using the same for policies on ESs. There also exists a need for better empirical data on nutrient export for further demonstrating the influence of resolution of input spatial data and extent using the NDR model or other similar models for quantifying and validating the models. We hope that this study will guide future research on ESs for informed policymaking in the context of ESs worldwide.