1. Introduction
In the subjective probability approach [
1], prevision of a random variable is defined by the notion of
coherence that assures that the prevision of a random variable
X is the amount the subject is willing to bet on
X such that neither the bettor nor the banker can win or loose for sure. From a mathematical point of view, linear previsions on a linear space of random variables are coherent if and only if they are linear functionals with values bounded by the infimum and the supremum value of the random variable. From these defining properties, we can prove that a linear coherent prevision is a homogeneous functional. Coherent probabilities are obtained when only indicator functions are considered in the domain. Because of the incomplete and inaccurate information, or to represent some preference orderings (e.g., Example 1 of [
2]), in some cases it is appropriate to consider non-linear functionals. Coherent upper and lower previsions can be defined as generalizations of linear previsions. In particular, if a linear prevision is defined with respect to a countably additive probability, coherent upper and lower conditional previsions can be defined by the Choquet integral with respect to the outer and inner measures generated by the countably additive probability, which are the natural extensions of an additive probability defined on a
-field [
3]. A new model of coherent upper previsions defined by the Choquet integral with respect to Hausdorff outer measures is proposed in [
4]. Also, coherent upper and lower previsions have a behavioural interpretation: the lower prevision of
X can be regarded as the supremal buying price for the random variable
X and the upper prevision is an infimal selling price. Nevertheless, we observe that there exist coherent upper previsions defined on the linear space of random variables without linear restrictions; an example is the vacuous upper prevision of a random variable, defined as the supremum of the values assumed by that random variable on
. So an open problem is to propose new mathematical tools to define coherent upper previsions that cannot be obtained as extensions of linear previsions.
The main motivation behind this paper is to propose a construction method for coherent upper previsions using aggregation functions [
5,
6] that are prolific and latter-day part of mathematics that found its place both in the theory and applications.
A functional on a linear space of random variables is a coherent upper prevision if and only if it is bounded by the supremum value of the random variable, sub-additive and positively homogeneous. In this contribution, coherent upper previsions are constructed by aggregation functions, which are interpreted as the gains we obtain with a given resource so that the increase in gains, after increase in resources, can be expressed in terms of aggregation functions. We introduce a new type of transformation of aggregation functions, called a revenue transformation, which represents the best upper bound for possible gains; in the paper we consider only revenue transformations that always assume bounded values. Some properties of revenue transformations are proven; in particular, it is proven that the revenue transformation transforms any aggregation function to some other aggregation function that is sub-additive and is bounded belowed by the transformed function. There already exists a sub-additive transformation of aggregation functions introduced in [
7] and is heavily studied by researchers [
8,
9,
10]. This sub-additive transformation always exists and is bounded above by the aggregation function that is being transformed, whereas examples are given in this paper of aggregation functions that do not have a bounded revenue transformation.
The revenue transformation of the Choquet integral, which is an example of aggregation function, is calculated and an open problem is to determine if it is the Choquet integral with respect to a monotone measure. An example of revenue transformation of Choquet integral with respect to a monotone measure , which is not sub-modular, is given such that the transformation is the Choquet integral with respect to a sub-modular monotone measure and it can be used to define a coherent upper prevision.
The paper is organized as follows. In
Section 2, some basic preliminaries needed later are given. In
Section 3, we define a new sub-additive transformation of aggregation functions, called a revenue transformation, and study its properties.
Section 4 consists of a construction method of coherent upper previsions based on aggregation functions. This construction method is heavily exemplified in this section. The last section contains some concluding remarks on the topic.
2. Preliminaries
Let
be a non-empty set and let
be a
-algebra on
such that
is finite. With this assumption we may, without loss of generality, assume that
and
for some
. This natural number
n is fixed throughout. Note that the motivation of the concepts discussed in this paper given in the literature, see, e.g., [
3], including illustrative examples, deal mostly with finite
only, therefore we focus on this framework only. Though most of concepts we recall or introduce in this paper remain valid also when a general measurable space
is considered, this is not the case, e.g., with the constructions based on the aggregation functions.
In this setting, every random variable on can be represented as n-tuple with i-th coordinate (denoted by ) being equal to for . All such vectors (i.e., random variables) form a vector space with coordinate-wise addition + and coordinate-wise scalar multiplication (over field ). Note that coordinate-wise difference −, coordinate-wise multiplication ·, coordinate-wise division /, coordinate-wise supremum ∨, and coordinate-wise infimum ∧ can be also introduced.
Also, a partial order ≤ can be introduced by
if and only if
for all
and all
. By
we denote the all-zero vector and by
we denote the all-one vector. An indicator vector
of a set
is given by its
i-th coordinate being equal to
, where
is the indicator function of the set
A. A
positive cone of a vector space
is the set
i.e.,
.
Let
be any vector with coordinates
. There exists a permutation
such that
For simplicity, we denote . Thus we have and . Note that is just the i-th order statistics of the sample .
An
aggregation function [
5,
6] is any mapping
such that
A is nondecreasing, i.e.,
implies
; and grounded, i.e.,
. In practice, it is convenient to assume that there exists at least one
such that
. This restriction is not necessary, but
is not an interesting aggregation function for us and thus such case will be omitted in proofs (with explicit declaration). We say that an aggregation function
A is
sub-additive, respectively
super-additive, if and only if
holds for all
. We say that an aggregation function
A is
positively homogeneous if and only if
for all
and all
. Lastly, we say that an aggregation function
A is
shift-invariant if and only if
for all
and all
. A
-aggregation function is any mapping
such that
A is non-decreasing, i.e.,
implies
; and obeys conditions
and
. Sub-additivity, super-additivity, positive homogeneity, and shift-invariance can be introduced analogously for
-aggregation functions.
Note that a full characterization of positively homogenenous and shift-invariant
-aggregation functions was given in [
6] (Proposition 7.37): A
-aggregation function
A is shift-invariant and positively homogeneous (interval scale invariant in [
6]) if and only if
A satisfies the following conditions:
- (i)
for all such that and for some ;
- (ii)
for all such that and for some , with convention .
Observe that then
for all
such that
and
for all
. See also, e.g., [
11,
12].
A
monotone measure [
13] is any set function
that is non-decreasing, i.e.,
implies
; and grounded, i.e.,
. Note that a monotone measure can be viewed as an aggregation function defined on
with the partial order ≤ being set inclusion. We say that a monotone measure
is
sub-modular if and only if
for all
. Sub-modular monotone measures are also sometimes referred to as 2-alternating monotone measures, see, e.g., [
14,
15]. If
we will write, for simplicity,
instead of
or
instead of
. A
conjugate monotone measure for a monotone measure
is a monotone measure
such that
for all
.
The
Choquet integral [
16] with respect to a monotone measure
is the operator
such that
where
for
. Choquet integral is an aggregation function and if
is sub-modular then
is a sub-additive aggregation function. In the theory of imprecise probabilities, an extension of Choquet integral, called an asymmetric Choquet integral, that is an operator
given by
is used to construct coherent upper previsions, see, e.g., [
17].
A coherent upper prevision is a mapping such that conditions
- (CUP1)
for all ;
- (CUP2)
for all and all ; and
- (CUP3)
for all
hold. Note that condition (CUP2) is positive homogeneity of and condition (CUP3) represents sub-additivity of . A coherent lower prevision is any mapping such that for all , where is some coherent upper prevision.
3. Revenue Transformation and Its Properties
Let us start with a notion of a revenue transformation. Imagine that the value of an aggregation function
at
represents gains with resources represented by
. The increase in gains after increasing resources by
is equal to
i.e., the difference between gains with increased resources and original resources. Imagine, that the original resources are not known and we ask ourselves a question: What is the maximal gain (or the best upper bound for possible gains) if we increase our resources by
? The answer is
This defines the revenue transformation of A that will be denoted by . We would like to ensure that is again an aggregation function and thus we must prevent to being equal to ∞. Such value is obtainable, see following example.
Example 1. Consider a one-dimensional aggregation function given byThen one obtains thatand thusfor any . As an example for n-dimensional aggregation function that has a similar behavour is an aggregation function . One of the existence conditions (and we will prove later that it is the only condition) for
to be an aggregation function is
that is required to hold for all
. This defines a sub-class of aggregation functions that will be denoted by
. Whenever we refer to any revenue transformation we will always assume that this condition is satisfied and thus we will only work with
in such a case.
Definition 1. Let be an aggregation function such that . Then its revenue transformation is a mapping given byfor all . As we hinted before, any revenue transformation of any aggregation function belonging to yield again an aggregation function. This is stated in the following proposition.
Proposition 1. Let be an aggregation function from . Then is also an aggregation function.
Proof. Let us start by proving that
holds. It is easy to see that
Now we will show that
is also non-decreasing. Let
be such that
. From the monotonicity of
A we have
, or, equivalently,
for any
and thus
Thus, is an aggregation function. □
Now we give some properties of revenue transformations. These are summarized in the following proposition.
Proposition 2. Let A be an aggregation function. Then
- a
is a sub-additive aggregation function;
- b
;
- c
if A is sub-additive then ;
- d
if A is shift-invariant then the diagonal of coincides with the diagonal of A;
- e
if A is shift-invariant then so is ;
- f
if A is positively homogeneous then so is .
Proof. (a) To see that
is a sub-additive aggregation function, let
. Then
and thus
is a sub-additive aggregation function.
To prove (b) it is sufficient to notice that
for all
which implies that
.
(c) If
A is sub-additive then
which implies that
i.e.,
. Combining this with part (b) of this proposition we obtain that
as needed.
To see (d) notice that
i.e., the diagonal of
coincides with the diagonal of
A if
A is shift-invariant.
To prove (e), notice that
Now using (d) we have that
and thus
i.e.,
is indeed a shift-invariant aggregation function if
A is. Now, to prove (f) notice that
for all
and all
if
A is positively homogeneous. □
Example 2. If we take, for the sake of exemplification, a one-dimensional aggregation function given byfor any then we obtain by item c) of Proposition 2 that if since A is sub-additive andif . Example 3. If we consider a one-dimensional aggregation function defined by where then we obtain by c) of Proposition 2 that if since A is sub-additive. On the other hand, if , the revenue transformation of A does not exist.
Example 4. Let us consider and Choquet integral . Then one can easily compute its revenue transformation asfor all , which coincides with Choquet integral where is given byfor . In general, for , it is an open problem whether for any monotone measure , for some monotone measure . Clearly, if this is the case, for any . Note that for any , defines a sub-modular monotone measure.
Example 5. Consider a Choquet integral on with respect to a monotone measure μ given by This monotone measure is not sub-modular and one can find that , i.e., is an OWA (Ordered Weighted Averaging) operator [18]. Its revenue transformation is again Choquet integral with respect to a monotone measure given byand ; and is a sub-modular monotone measure. Example 6. Let and let μ be a monotone measure on Ω. Let us continue with Example 2 that we presented in [19]. Note that based on the monotone measure μ introduced there, we can construct a new monotone measure by for all . The values of the chosen monotone measure μ and the related monotone measure ν can be found in Table 1. Note that ν is a sub-modular monotone measure and also, if is Choquet integral then it would coincide with . 4. Constructions of Coherent Upper Previsions
In this section, we will construct coherent upper previsions using aggregation functions with special properties. Analogous construction process as in [
4,
19] will be adopted.
Proposition 3. Let be a sub-additive, positively homogeneous and shift-invariant aggregation function such that . Then the mapping given byfor all defines a coherent upper prevision. Proof. First of all, note that for all
,
, and thus the definition of
is valid. Since
is a linear space to prove that
defines a coherent upper prevision we will prove that
obeys conditions (CUP1)-(CUP3). To see that (CUP1) holds, notice that
for all
. To see (CUP2) it is enough to consider
for all
and all
. Lastly, it remains to show that the condition (CUP3) holds, i.e., to show that
is sub-additive. Because infimum is a super-additive aggregation function, we know that
and thus
. Note that
Now, from
, we obtain that
Using the shift-invariance of
A and the fact that
we have that
Noticing that
and by the sub-additivity of
A we finally obtain that
for all
, i.e.,
is sub-additive. □
Remark 1. Moreover, we may assume that A is also idempotent, i.e., for all . With the fact that A is shift-invariant it is enough to consider only the fact that . Assuming this extra condition, the coherent upper prevision can be constructed bywhich simplifies the construction. Remark 2. As another remark, note that a positively homogeneous and idempotent aggregation function is fully determined by its restriction to because for any , where . Also note that the given restriction is a -aggregation function and thus we can characterize all positively homogeneous, shift-invariant and idempotent aggregation functions. To authors’ best knowledge, this characterization has not been published anywhere, yet.
Proposition 4. An aggregation function is positively homogeneous, shiftinvariant and idempotent if and only if there exists a positively homogeneous and shift-invariant -aggregation function such that andwhenever . Remark 3. Note that there are positively homogeneous and shift-invariant aggregation functions that are not idempotent. As a trivial example of such aggregation function we give the sum function (with ).
Coherent lower previsions are obtained by the conjugacy property
We can observe that if the aggregation function A, that is considered to define a coherent upper prevision, is linear, then and a linear prevision is obtained.
Coherent upper probabilities can be obtained by Proposition 3 when only indicator vectors are considered.
The coherent upper probability of an event
is defined by
and the coherent lower probability is obtained by the conjugacy property,
Example 7. Let be an aggregation function defined by . Note that A satisfies all requirements of Proposition 3 and thus A can be used to construct a coherent upper prevision. This construction leads to which is the vacuous upper prevision.
Example 8. The Choquet integral defined in Example 5 by the revenue transformation of (which is not a coherent upper prevision because it is not sub-additive), is a coherent upper prevision since it is sub-additive, positively homogeneous and such that Coherent upper probabilities are obtained when only indicator vectors , for all , are considered. These are given by In the following example an aggregation function which cannot be used to define a coherent upper prevision is given.
Example 9. Let . The aggregation function can not be used to construct a coherent upper prevision, because it is not sub-additive; moreover the revenue transformation does not exists as shown in Example 1.
Example 10. Let . The aggregation function can be used to construct a coherent upper prevision, because it is linear and homogeneous; by Proposition 3 we obtain that ) is the mean and the coherent probability of an event is defined by the counting measure, which is the Hausdorff measure of order 0. In this setting, .
In the following theorem a construction of aggregation functions, which are idempotent, positively homogeneous, shift invariant and sub-additive are proposed. They are applied in the construction of coherent upper conditional previsions.
Theorem 1. Denote by the class of all n-ary aggregation functions on , which are idempotent, positively homogeneous, shift invariant and sub-additive, then for any , let and be non-empty subsets of with cardinalities , respectively, so that , where , are permutations and , then the aggregation function C defined bybelongs to . Proof. Observe first that each function
given by
for
, is an aggregation function from the class
. Then, for any
,
i.e.,
C is idempotent. Similarly, one can show the positive homogeneity, shift invariantness and sub-additivity of
C, which ensures
. □
The previous construction method can be used to define coherent upper previsions if .
Corollary 1. Let be a weighted arithmetic mean, i.e., a linear prevision given byand let be given as in Theorem 1. Then the convex combinationbelongs to . Also multi-step Choquet integrals [
20,
21,
22], which are multi-step aggregation functions and which are not Choquet integrals, in general, can be used to construct coherent upper previsions.
Example 11. Let , , , , and thenand C belongs to and hence it can be used, by Proposition 1 and Remark 1, to build the following coherent upper prevision Note that A, and are OWA operators and thus Choquet integrals, but C cannot be expressed as a Choquet integral.
5. Conclusions
In this paper a construction method, based on sub-additive positively homogeneous and shift-invariant aggregation functions is proposed to define coherent upper previsions. Moreover a sub-additive transformation of an aggregation function, named revenue transformation is introduced to obtain a sub-additive aggregation function. Under some mild additional constraints, this transformed aggregation function is then used to define a coherent upper prevision. As a distinguished example one can recall the Choquet integral. If the considered monotone measure is sub-modular then the related asymmetric Choquet integral is a coherent upper prevision. If is not sub-modular, clearly, is not a coherent upper prevision, but based on our proposal one can define a coherent upper prevision . It is an interesting open problem whether the operator is comonotone additive and thus it can be represented as a Choquet integral , where is a sub-modular monotone measure given by .
We have considered finite -algebras only, being inspired by the motivation and basic examples of coherent upper (lower) previsions known from the literature. In our future work, we aim to focus on constructions of coherent upper (lower) previsions on general measurable spaces .