The results of the calculations and the regression model built for the oil industry are presented below.
5.1. Adequacy Analysis of the Calculated Research Results
The indicators of companies, which are not interdependent among themselves, are used as factor signs “x”. These features are revenue, intangible assets, intellectual property, fixed assets, construction in progress, financial investments, current assets and long-term and short-term liabilities. By capitalization or the value of business entities (resultant attribute “Y”) we mean the market value of one share of the company (share price) per the number of shares in circulation. Data from financial statements for the last five years were used for calculations. For this study, annual data were used.
The tightness of the relationship between linearly dependent features was determined using a linear correlation coefficient (r), the calculation of which is automated using statistical data analysis packages. The linear model of pair regression between the value of intangible assets and company capitalization has the following form:
The regression coefficient under
x shows that if the value of intangible assets and intellectual property increases, the market capitalization of the company increases too. Input data for the computational model are presented in
Appendix A.
Thus, the result of 0.004 means that the hypothesis is confirmed as the result was less than 0.134.
Since the significance level ap (p-value), calculated for coefficients a0 and a1 is lower than the set significance level a = 0.01, both these coefficients are recognized as non-random (i.e., typical for the general population).
The value of the determination index R2 (R-squared in the table) is equally 0.9971. This value is over 0.5, which is evidence of the good approximation of the source (actual) data using the built linear function of relation.
The adequacy of the regression model to the actual data was also established by Fisher’s ratio test, which evaluates the statistical significance (non-randomness) of the determination index as typical, so the linear model of relation between characteristics X and Y is to a greater degree applicable to the general population of enterprises as a whole. Then, a heteroscedasticity test was used. The presence of heteroscedasticity leads to the following negative effects: the estimations of the standard errors of regression coefficients are displaced, the estimations of regression coefficients using the method of least squares are ineffective and t-statistics of regression coefficients are inadequate.
As a result of the test, it was revealed that in the majority of cases heteroscedasticity is satisfactory, so general statistical methods can be used.
According to the results of the test, it was concluded that the p-value is higher than the significance level chosen as 5% (0.3336 > 0.05), so hypothesis zero about the lack of heteroscedasticity was not rejected, i.e., the random disturbance dispersion does not depend on X and the regression model (3) detailed above is homoscedastic. This proves the adequacy of the statistical valuations of the quality of the linear regression model. Calculations were made according to the Granger test for the period from 2013 to 2019 with the time lag being 1.
To study the directions of the causal relationships between the intangible assets and capitalization, the Granger test was used, where x1 is the intangible assets of the company. If it is > 0.05, it cannot be claimed that the hypothesis “A is NOT the Granger cause of B” is true. Thus, capitalization is dependent on intangible assets, since the coefficient is 0.224 and 0.997.
Typically, the Granger test tests two null hypotheses: “x is not the cause of y by Granger” and “(Y is not the cause of X by Granger”. The p-values are small, so we accept the hypothesis that X1 is the Granger cause of Y1. Further, when the situation is reversed, p-values are greater than 0.05; therefore, we reject the hypothesis that Y1 is the Granger cause for X1.
According to the above information it can be concluded that despite industry specific features, which affect the quantitative values of intangible assets and intellectual property, the value of business entities and their level of economic security are affected.
5.2. Algorithm to Determine Economic Security of a Business Based on Valuation of Intangible Assets According to the IVS
According to the results of the study, an algorithm was developed to determine the economic security of businesses. This algorithm is based on a multi-stage comprehensive analysis of intangible assets and intellectual property.
As an example, one of the large oil companies represented on the Russian market was considered. At the first stage the company performance was preliminarily analyzed considering the specifics of the sector where it operates. The performance analysis was carried out on the example of the Neft Y company, for which indicators for the period 2017–2019 were analyzed. The main indicators of the financial status and performance of Neft Y were selected and grouped according to the qualitative characteristics in the period analyzed.
The company performance is defined by the following indicators:
The net assets exceed the equity capital, and an increase in the net assets was observed during the analyzed period;
A positive change in the organization’s own capital in relation to the total change in the organization’s assets;
A growth in revenue by 94.4% was observed during the analyzed period;
The share of self-cost in revenue was 91.08–93.49 % during the analyzed period;
Profits grew by 49% during the analyzed period, and net profit was obtained (2,366,408 thousand rubles);
A growth in fixed assets and intangible assets was observed;
Borrowed money is actively used in the company’s operations.
Based on the above analysis, it can be concluded that positive dynamics of the main indicators (revenue, net profit) are observed in the performance of Neft Y. The company actively involves intangible assets in its operations.
At the second stage, more profound analysis of the indicators was carried out.
Firstly, in Block 1 we analyzed the existing intangible assets, including the rights for the results of intellectual activity that are not accounted for in books, as well as the efficiency of the intangible assets management system of the business entity. According to the conducted analysis, Neft Y has the following intangible assets: a license for exploration and production of raw hydrocarbons and a patent. Thus, intangible assets are applied in the operations of the company, which allows it to use new technologies and explore deposits for producing raw hydrocarbons.
In Block 2, investments were calculated.
In this block, investments in intangible assets and intellectual property were calculated. The value of intangible assets and intellectual property was calculated according to the IVS to achieve a high quality of calculations along with transparency and reliability. Since Neft Y acquired a new license for exploration and production of raw hydrocarbons, the value of the required investments was estimated, as detailed in
Section 5.
In Block 3 the sources of the effect were analyzed.
In order to determine the source of the effect (benefits, profits) from using intangible assets and intellectual property, it is important to carry out a comprehensive study, which represents a legal and engineering study.
The legal study includes defining the title documents based on which the rights for intellectual property are vested.
In the engineering study, the quantitative and qualitative technological and engineering characteristics and parameters of the goods produced due to the presence of intellectual property are established.
When the sources of the effect were analyzed, the following intangible assets were identified for Neft Y: a license for exploration and production of raw hydrocarbons and a patent for a gravel filter. The patent is a title document. The invention is specific to the oil and gas industry and can be used to install gravel filters and to overhaul boreholes. The validity period of the patent is 20 years. Neft Y has a registered trademark, which is not accounted for in books. Thus, the trademark of Neft Y can be accounted for in books according to the market value.
Stage 3.1. Using intangible assets in business activities (calculating the annual income from using them). In this case it is assumed that the business entity is the holder of exclusive rights due to which the business entity has a right to produce unique goods and services.
Stage 3.2. Using intangible assets in commercial turnover, license for intangible assets. According to the license contract, the holder of the exclusive right (licensor) grants the other party (licensee) the right to use the intellectual property. The transfer of non-exclusive rights is another source of income from applying intellectual property.
Neft Y has not made license contracts so far but plans to consider the possibility of granting non-exclusive rights for the use of the patent for the gravel filter.
Stage 3.3. Using intangible assets when exclusive rights belong to three parties. In this case the business entity uses intangible assets in its activities that belong to the right of use of a non-exclusive license. Prior to making a license contract, a feasibility study has to be conducted to make sure it is reasonable to conclude this contract and to adequately calculate the price of the right of use.
Neft Y lacks such contracts, so no analysis was performed at this stage.
Stage 3.4. Using intangible assets as a collateral for attracting investments.
A mandatory condition for collateral is the state registration of the above list of assets. In order to obtain the collateral, the market value of the asset has to be defined. In this case, special attention must be paid to the quality of the valuation report, which will be used as a basis for taking a decision about the collateral. It is the IVS that ensure the quality, transparency, fairness and reliability of the valuation. This is extremely important for taking investment decisions and for the purposes of collateral. The registered trademark and the patent for the gravel filter can be the subject of collateral for the Neft Y company.
Stage 3.5. Using intangible assets to make a payment in the business entity’s equity capital.
Exclusive rights for intangible assets can be introduced into the company’s equity capital. All intangible assets are introduced into the equity capital of the business entity at market value calculated in the valuation report that is prepared according to the IVS. Increasing the equity capital helps to attract investments for the activities of the company.
In Block 4 the current expenses of the business entity were analyzed.
Stage 4.1. Analysis and calculation of patent taxes to maintain the patent in force.
Stage 4.2. Tax analysis and calculation.
Periodic (current) payments for the use of rights for the results of intellectual activity and rights for individualization means (in particular, the rights emerging from patents for inventions, useful models, industrial samples) are included in the composition of the company’s expenses. Thus, due to an increase in expenses, the size of the profit tax goes down.
In addition to the income obtained by business entities due to intangible assets, it is reasonable to account for the tax benefits for the rights holder.
Tax benefits include reduction in the amounts of taxes and an effective increase in the cash flow of the business entity. For some objectives of valuation, such as financial statements, the tax benefit from depreciation should be included in the valuation when applying the income approach to intangible assets (
International Valuation Standards 2020).
Thus, intangible assets give the company real tax benefits due to depreciation, which is in many tax jurisdictions. The calculation of results are presented in the
Table 5.
Thus, the profit tax due to the depreciation of the business entity’s intangible assets can be 18,973 thousand rubles lower per year.
Stage 4.3. Analyzing and calculating royalty fees.
The company paying royalty fees to the authors for using intellectual property is one of the most important issues. Royalty fees were not calculated in this study because the company lacks patents wherein the authors have the right to receive royalty fees.
Stage 4.4. Analyzing and calculating payments under license contracts.
Payments under license contracts can be defined by one of the following options: royalties (payments represent a percentage of the licensee’s revenue from the products sold), a lump sum payment (a single payment, which represents a fixed amount) and a combined payment (part of the amount is paid in one installment, and the second part represents payments in form of royalties).
Stage 4.5. Expenses related to risks in the sphere of intellectual rights (legal expenses).
Legal expenses in the sphere of patent disputes can amount to substantial costs that business entities bear in case of litigation. These expenses arise if legal disputes are dealt with.
Stage 4.6. Expenses related to loan payments in case intangible assets are used as collateral.
In this case, expenses related to payment interest on loans arise only if the business entity has a loan and occur according to the terms of the contract.
In Block 5 the value of the effect was calculated.
The effect from intangible assets and intellectual property can be expressed in the ways described below.
Stage 5.1. Calculating the market value of intangible assets. The market value of the asset is determined according to the IVS. The calculation of the market value of the license for production of raw hydrocarbons is presented as an example in
Section 6 and Table 7.
Stage 5.2. Calculating the profits from using intangible assets and intellectual property.
Earnings from the use of intangible assets and intellectual property can be formed by regular royalty payments, depreciation deductions of intangible assets, tax benefits and collateral benefits.
Receiving regular royalty fees is possible in case a license contract is made to transfer non-exclusive right of use of the patent for the gravel filter. In case the license contract is concluded, Neft Y can receive annual income amounting to, on average, 1.91% from the earnings formed with the application of the above patent. Thus, if a medium company in the oil and gas sector applies the patent, it can bring the holder of the exclusive ownership rights 612,350 thousand rubles, on average, with the average earnings being 32,103,215 thousand rubles and the average value of the royalty rate being 1.91%.
Below is given the calculation of the amount of license fee for use of the patent for one year
Table 6.