Hydrology

12 pages, 2435 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Evaluation of the Impact of Meteorological Factors on the Stratification of Structure in Lake Biwa, Japan

by Jinichi Koue

Hydrology 2022, 9(1), 16; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology9010016 - 17 Jan 2022

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2911

Hypoxia in Lake Biwa, Japan remains a serious water environmental problem. One of the causes of hypoxia in the lake is the formation of a thermocline, which is largely affected by meteorological factors, such as (1) air temperature, (2) wind speed, and (3) [...] Read more.

Hypoxia in Lake Biwa, Japan remains a serious water environmental problem. One of the causes of hypoxia in the lake is the formation of a thermocline, which is largely affected by meteorological factors, such as (1) air temperature, (2) wind speed, and (3) precipitation. However, the effects of these three meteorological factors on the formation of the thermocline have not been clarified quantitatively. In this study, applying a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model to Lake Biwa, the effects of each of the three meteorological elements on the formation of the thermocline was quantitatively analyzed to clarify the governing factors of meteorological conditions in the formation of anoxic oxygen. Sensitivity analysis of the stratification structure in Lake Biwa was performed by changing the three meteorological factors of (1) air temperature, (2) wind speed, and (3) precipitation. As a result, the change in wind speed gives the greatest effect on the stratification structure, the change in air temperature makes the difference in the stratification structure from the surface layer to the vicinity of the thermocline, and the change in precipitation affects it less than the others. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology–Climate Interactions)

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10 pages, 1989 KiB

Open AccessCase Report

Removal of Arsenic in Groundwater Using Fe(III) Oxyhydroxide Coated Sand: A Case Study in Mekong Delta, Vietnam

by Lavane Kim, Nguyen Truong Thanh, Pham Van Toan, Huynh Vuong Thu Minh and Pankaj Kumar

Hydrology 2022, 9(1), 15; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology9010015 - 13 Jan 2022

Cited by 11 | Viewed by 2829

Abstract

Because of its threat to the quality of freshwater resources and human health, arsenic (As) pollution is important to scientific communities and policymakers around the world. The Mekong Delta, Vietnam, is one hotspot of As pollution. Its risk assessment of different environmental components [...] Read more.

Because of its threat to the quality of freshwater resources and human health, arsenic (As) pollution is important to scientific communities and policymakers around the world. The Mekong Delta, Vietnam, is one hotspot of As pollution. Its risk assessment of different environmental components has been well documented; however, very few studies focus on As removal techniques. Considering this information gap, this study aimed to investigate the performance of an innovative and low-cost treatment system using Fe(III)-oxyhydroxide (FeOOH) coated sand to remove As(III) from aqueous solution. Batch and column experiments were conducted at a laboratory scale in order to study removal kinetics and efficiency. Experimental results indicated that the adsorption isotherm of As(III) on FeOOH coated sand using Langmuir and Freundlich models have high regression factors of 0.987 and 0.991, respectively. The batch adsorption experiment revealed that contact time was approximately 8 h for rough saturation (kinetic test). The concentration of As(III) in effluents at flow rates of 0.6 L/h, 0.9 L/h, and 1.8 L/h ranged from 1.1 µg/L to 1.7 µg/L. Results from this study indicated that FeOOH coated sand columns were effective in removing As(III) from water, with a removal efficiency of 99.1%. Ultimately, FeOOH coated sand filtration could be a potential treatment system to reduce As(III) in the domestic water supply in remote areas of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Groundwater Management)

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14 pages, 8207 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Using Heat as a Tracer to Detect the Development of the Recharge Bulb in Managed Aquifer Recharge Schemes

by Esteban Caligaris, Margherita Agostini and Rudy Rossetto

Hydrology 2022, 9(1), 14; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology9010014 - 12 Jan 2022

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 2953

Abstract

Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR), the intentional recharge of aquifers, has surged worldwide in the last 60 years as one of the options to preserve and increase water resources availability. However, estimating the extent of the area impacted by the recharge operations is not [...] Read more.

Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR), the intentional recharge of aquifers, has surged worldwide in the last 60 years as one of the options to preserve and increase water resources availability. However, estimating the extent of the area impacted by the recharge operations is not an obvious task. In this descriptive study, we monitored the spatiotemporal variation of the groundwater temperature in a phreatic aquifer before and during MAR operations, for 15 days, at the LIFE REWAT pilot infiltration basin using surface water as recharge source. The study was carried out in the winter season, taking advantage of the existing marked difference in temperature between the surface water (cold, between 8 and 13 °C, and in quasi-equilibrium with the air temperature) and the groundwater temperature, ranging between 10 and 18 °C. This difference in heat carried by groundwater was then used as a tracer. Results show that in the experiment the cold infiltrated surface water moved through the aquifer, allowing us to identify the development and extension in two dimensions of the recharge plume resulting from the MAR infiltration basin operations. Forced convection is the dominant heat transport mechanism. Further data, to be gathered at high frequency, and modeling analyses using the heat distribution at different depths are needed to identify the evolution of the recharge bulb in the three-dimensional space. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Integrated Surface Water and Groundwater Analysis)

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26 pages, 8960 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceCommunication

Establishing Stage–Discharge Rating Curves in Developing Countries: Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

by Teshager A. Negatu, Fasikaw A. Zimale and Tammo S. Steenhuis

Hydrology 2022, 9(1), 13; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology9010013 - 12 Jan 2022

Cited by 12 | Viewed by 829793

Abstract

A significant constraint in water resource development in developing countries is the lack of accurate river discharge data. Stage–discharge measurements are infrequent, and rating curves are not updated after major storms. Therefore, the objective is to develop accurate stage–discharge rating curves with limited [...] Read more.

A significant constraint in water resource development in developing countries is the lack of accurate river discharge data. Stage–discharge measurements are infrequent, and rating curves are not updated after major storms. Therefore, the objective is to develop accurate stage–discharge rating curves with limited measurements. The Lake Tana basin in the upper reaches of the Blue Nile in the Ethiopian Highlands is typical for the lack of reliable streamflow data in Africa. On average, one stage–discharge measurement per year is available for the 21 gaging stations over 60 years or less. To obtain accurate and unique stage–discharge curves, the discharge was expressed as a function of the water level and a time-dependent offset from zero. The offset was expressed as polynomial functions of time (up to order 4). The rating curve constants and the coefficients for the polynomial were found by minimizing the errors between observed and predicted fluxes for the available stage–discharge data. It resulted in unique rating curves with R² > 0.85 for the four main rivers. One of the river bottoms of the alluvial channels increased in height by up to 3 m in 60 years. In the upland channels, most offsets changed by less than 50 cm. The unique rating curves that account for temporal riverbed changes can aid civil engineers in the design of reservoirs, water managers in improving reservoir management, programmers in calibration and validation of hydrology models and scientists in ecological research. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Applications and Cooperation Projects in Developing Countries)

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26 pages, 4171 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Modeling the Impact of Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Change on Water Availability in an Inland Valley Catchment in Burkina Faso

by Mouhamed Idrissou, Bernd Diekkrüger, Bernhard Tischbein, Felix Op de Hipt, Kristian Näschen, Thomas Poméon, Yacouba Yira and Boubacar Ibrahim

Hydrology 2022, 9(1), 12; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology9010012 - 11 Jan 2022

Cited by 21 | Viewed by 4259

Abstract

Water scarcity for smallholder farming in West Africa has led to the shift of cultivation from uplands to inland valleys. This study investigates the impacts of climate and land use/land cover (LULC) change on water resources in an intensively instrumented inland valley catchment [...] Read more.

Water scarcity for smallholder farming in West Africa has led to the shift of cultivation from uplands to inland valleys. This study investigates the impacts of climate and land use/land cover (LULC) change on water resources in an intensively instrumented inland valley catchment in Southwestern Burkina Faso. An ensemble of five regional climate models (RCMs) and two climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) was utilized to drive a physically-based hydrological model WaSiM after calibration and validation. The impact of climate change was quantified by comparing the projected period (2021–2050) and a reference period (1971–2000). The result showed a large uncertainty in the future change of runoff between the RCMs. Three models projected an increase in the total runoff from +12% to +95%, whereas two models predicted a decrease from −44% to −24%. Surface runoff was projected to show the highest relative change compared to the other runoff components. The projected LULC 2019, 2025, and 2030 were estimated based on historical LULC change (1990–2013) using the Land Change Modeler (LCM). A gradual conversion of savanna to cropland was shown, with annual rates rom 1 to 3.3%. WaSiM was used to simulate a gradual increase in runoff with time caused by this land use change. The combined climate and land use change was estimated using LULC-2013 in the reference period and LULC-2030 as future land use. The results suggest that land use change exacerbates the increase in total runoff. The increase in runoff was found to be +158% compared to the reference period but only +52% without land use change impacts. This stresses the fact that land use change impact is not negligible in this area, and climate change impact assessments without land use change analysis might be misleading. The results of this study can be used as input to water management models in order to derive strategies to cope with present and future water scarcities for smallholder farming in the investigated area. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Integrated Effect of Climate and Land Use on Hydrology and Soil Erosion)

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13 pages, 8044 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Stream Stage Monitoring with Community Science-Contributed Stage Data

by Ingrid Luffman and Daniel Connors

Hydrology 2022, 9(1), 11; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology9010011 - 10 Jan 2022

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2321

Abstract

Volunteered Geographic Information, data contributed by community scientists, is an increasingly popular tool to collect scientific data, involve the community in scientific research, and provide information and education about a prominent issue. Johnson City, Tennnessee, USA has a long history of downtown flooding, [...] Read more.

Volunteered Geographic Information, data contributed by community scientists, is an increasingly popular tool to collect scientific data, involve the community in scientific research, and provide information and education about a prominent issue. Johnson City, Tennnessee, USA has a long history of downtown flooding, and recent redevelopment of two land parcels has created new city parks that mitigate flooding through floodwater storage, additional channel capacity, and reduced impervious surfaces. At Founders Park, a project to collect stage data using text messages from community scientists has collected 1479 stage measurements from 597 participants from May 2017 through July 2021. Text messages were parsed to extract the stage and merged with local precipitation data to assess the stream’s response to precipitation. Of 1479 observations, 96.7% were correctly parsed. Only 3% of observations were false positives (parser extracted incorrect stage value) or false negatives (parser unable to extract correct value but usable data were reported). Less than 2% of observations were received between 11 p.m. and 7 a.m., creating an overnight data gap, and fewer than 7% of observations were made during or immediately following precipitation. Regression models for stage using antecedent precipitation explained 21.6% of the variability in stream stage. Increased participation and development of an automated system to record stage data at regular intervals will provide data to validate community observations and develop more robust rainfall–runoff models. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydro-Meteorological Extreme: Implications on Economy, Society, Civil Protection and Environmental Planning)

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36 pages, 89456 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Precipitation and Maximum Flows in Devil’s Creek, Tacna, Peru

by Edwin Pino-Vargas, Eduardo Chávarri-Velarde, Eusebio Ingol-Blanco, Fabricio Mejía, Ana Cruz and Alissa Vera

Hydrology 2022, 9(1), 10; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology9010010 - 5 Jan 2022

Cited by 11 | Viewed by 6070

Abstract

Global projections of climate change indicate negative impacts on hydrological systems, with significant changes in precipitation and temperature in many parts of the world. As a result, floods and droughts are expected. This article discusses the potential effects of climate change and variability [...] Read more.

Global projections of climate change indicate negative impacts on hydrological systems, with significant changes in precipitation and temperature in many parts of the world. As a result, floods and droughts are expected. This article discusses the potential effects of climate change and variability on the maximum precipitation, temperature, and hydrological regime in Devil’s Creek, Tacna, Peru. The outputs of precipitation and daily temperature of fifteen regional climate models were used for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The methodology used includes the bias correction and downscaling of meteorological variables using the quintiles mapping technique, hydrological modeling, the evaluation of two emission scenarios, and its effect on the maximum flows of the stream. The results of the multi-model ensemble show that the maximum annual precipitation will probably increase by more than 30% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the 2021–2050 period relative to the 1981–2005 period. Likewise, as expected, the maximum flows could increase by 220% and 154% for the RCP4.5 scenarios for the 2021–2050 and 2051–2080 terms, respectively, and 234% and 484% for the RCP8.5 scenarios and for the 2021–2050 and 2051–2080 terms, respectively, concerning the recorded historical value, increasing the probability of flood events and damage in populations located downstream. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Flow Modeling for Water Resources and Hydrological Engineering)

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15 pages, 3265 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Establishing Coupled Models for Estimating Daily Dew Point Temperature Using Nature-Inspired Optimization Algorithms

by Saeid Mehdizadeh, Babak Mohammadi and Farshad Ahmadi

Hydrology 2022, 9(1), 9; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology9010009 - 1 Jan 2022

Cited by 13 | Viewed by 2793

Abstract

Potential of a classic adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was evaluated in the current study for estimating the daily dew point temperature (Tdew). The study area consists of two stations located in Iran, namely the Rasht and Urmia. The daily Tdew time series [...] Read more.

Potential of a classic adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was evaluated in the current study for estimating the daily dew point temperature (Tdew). The study area consists of two stations located in Iran, namely the Rasht and Urmia. The daily Tdew time series of the studied stations were modeled through the other effective variables comprising minimum air temperature (Tmin), extraterrestrial radiation (Ra), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), sunshine duration (n), and relative humidity (RH). The correlation coefficients between the input and output parameters were utilized to determine the most effective inputs. Furthermore, novel hybrid models were proposed in this study in order to increase the estimation accuracy of Tdew. For this purpose, two optimization algorithms named bee colony optimization (BCO) and dragonfly algorithm (DFA) were coupled on the classic ANFIS. It was concluded that the hybrid models (i.e., ANFIS-BCO and ANFIS-DFA) demonstrated better performances compared to the classic ANFIS. The full-input pattern of the coupled models, specifically the ANFIS-DFA, was found to present the most accurate results for both the selected stations. Therefore, the developed hybrid models can be proposed as alternatives to the classic ANFIS to accurately estimate the daily Tdew. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Soft Computing in Hydrology: Application of Machine Learning, Optimization Algorithms, and Data Mining)

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16 pages, 3597 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Streamflow Reconstructions Using Tree-Ring Based Paleo Proxies for the Upper Adige River Basin (Italy)

by Giuseppe Formetta, Glenn Tootle and Giacomo Bertoldi

Hydrology 2022, 9(1), 8; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology9010008 - 30 Dec 2021

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 3080

Abstract

The Adige River Basin (ARB) provides a vital water supply source for varying demands including agriculture (wine production), energy (hydropower) and municipal water supply. Given the importance of this river system, information about past (paleo) drought and pluvial (wet) periods would quantity risk [...] Read more.

The Adige River Basin (ARB) provides a vital water supply source for varying demands including agriculture (wine production), energy (hydropower) and municipal water supply. Given the importance of this river system, information about past (paleo) drought and pluvial (wet) periods would quantity risk to water managers and planners. Annual streamflow data were obtained for four gauges that were spatially located within the upper ARB. The Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) provides an annual June–July–August (JJA) self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) derived from 106 tree-ring chronologies for 5414 grid points across Europe from 0 to 2012 AD. In lieu of tree-ring chronologies, the OWDA dataset was used as a proxy to reconstruct both individual gauge and ARB regional streamflow from 0 to 2012. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to the four ARB streamflow gauges to generate one representative vector of regional streamflow. This regional streamflow vector was highly correlated with the four individual gauges, as coefficient of determination (R²) values ranged from 85% to 96%. Prescreening methods included correlating annual streamflow and scPDSI cells (within a 450 km radius) in which significant (p ≤ 0.01 or 99% significance) scPDSI cells were identified. The significant scPDSI cells were then evaluated for temporal stability to ensure practical and reliable reconstructions. Statistically significant and temporally stable scPDSI cells were used as predictors (independent variables) to reconstruct streamflow (predictand or dependent variable) for both individual gauges and at the regional scale. This resulted in highly skillful reconstructions of upper ARB streamflow from 0 to 2012 AD. Multiple drought and pluvial periods were identified in the paleo record that exceed those observed in the recent, historic record. Moreover, this study concurred with streamflow reconstructions in nearby European watersheds. Full article

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16 pages, 1472 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Land-Based Impact of Nutrient Loads and Eutrophication on an Ancient Mediterranean Natural Lake

by Bachisio Mario Padedda, Antonella Lugliè, Giuseppina Grazia Lai, Filippo Giadrossich, Cecilia Teodora Satta and Silvia Pulina

Hydrology 2022, 9(1), 7; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology9010007 - 29 Dec 2021

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2798

Abstract

In water management plans, all human impacts on the aquatic environment are quantified and evaluated. For this purpose, lake-related assessment methods of watersheds are needed. The aim of this study is to present the environmental condition along the watershed–lake continuum of Lake Baratz, [...] Read more.

In water management plans, all human impacts on the aquatic environment are quantified and evaluated. For this purpose, lake-related assessment methods of watersheds are needed. The aim of this study is to present the environmental condition along the watershed–lake continuum of Lake Baratz, located in the northeastern part of Sardinia. We provide a method to evaluate the impact of a small watershed area on the trophic state of this ancient Mediterranean natural lake. This study demonstrates the potentialities of coupling simple land structure-based models with empirical ones, allowing one to hierarchize, interpret, and predict the relationships among the watershed ecological unity and lake trophic conditions at multiple spatial and temporal scales. It also demonstrates how the impact of single and interacting nutrient stressors can have a different impact on the trophic status which, in particular, applies to autotrophs, constituting a key response in the ecosystem. We suggest that the stressor hierarchy should be considered as a way of prioritizing actions in the cost-effective implementation of conservation and management plans. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Aquatic Ecosystems and Water Resources)

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14 pages, 4102 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Spatiotemporal Variability of Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) Curves in Arid Areas: Wadi AL-Lith, Saudi Arabia as a Case Study

by Ibrahim H. Elsebaie, Mohamed El Alfy and Atef Qasem Kawara

Hydrology 2022, 9(1), 6; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology9010006 - 27 Dec 2021

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 4181

Abstract

In arid areas, flashflood water management is a major concern due to arid climate ambiguity. The examining and derivation of intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves in an urban arid area under a variety of terrain patterns and climatic changes is anticipated. Several flood events have [...] Read more.

In arid areas, flashflood water management is a major concern due to arid climate ambiguity. The examining and derivation of intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves in an urban arid area under a variety of terrain patterns and climatic changes is anticipated. Several flood events have been reported in the Al-Lith region of western Saudi Arabia that took away many lives and caused disruption in services and trade. To find and examine the extremities and IDF curves, daily rainfall data from 1966 to 2018 is used. The IDF curves are created for a variety of return periods and climate scenarios in three terrain variabilities. This research examines various distributions to estimate the maximum rainfall for several metrological stations with varying return periods and terrain conditions. Three main zones are identified based on ground elevation variability and IDF distributions from upstream in the eastern mountainous area to downstream in the western coastal area. These IDF curves can be used to identify vulnerable hotspot areas in arid areas such as the Wadi AL-Lith, and flood mitigation steps can be suggested to minimize flood risk. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Drought and Water Scarcity: Monitoring, Modelling and Mitigation)

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17 pages, 2826 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Machine Learning in Assessing the Performance of Hydrological Models

by Evangelos Rozos, Panayiotis Dimitriadis and Vasilis Bellos

Hydrology 2022, 9(1), 5; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology9010005 - 27 Dec 2021

Cited by 27 | Viewed by 6192

Abstract

Machine learning has been employed successfully as a tool virtually in every scientific and technological field. In hydrology, machine learning models first appeared as simple feed-forward networks that were used for short-term forecasting, and have evolved into complex models that can take into [...] Read more.

Machine learning has been employed successfully as a tool virtually in every scientific and technological field. In hydrology, machine learning models first appeared as simple feed-forward networks that were used for short-term forecasting, and have evolved into complex models that can take into account even the static features of catchments, imitating the hydrological experience. Recent studies have found machine learning models to be robust and efficient, frequently outperforming the standard hydrological models (both conceptual and physically based). However, and despite some recent efforts, the results of the machine learning models require significant effort to interpret and derive inferences. Furthermore, all successful applications of machine learning in hydrology are based on networks of fairly complex topology that require significant computational power and CPU time to train. For these reasons, the value of the standard hydrological models remains indisputable. In this study, we suggest employing machine learning models not as a substitute for hydrological models, but as an independent tool to assess their performance. We argue that this approach can help to unveil the anomalies in catchment data that do not fit in the employed hydrological model structure or configuration, and to deal with them without compromising the understanding of the underlying physical processes. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Recent Advances in Hydrological Modeling)

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3 pages, 176 KiB

Open AccessEditorial

Editorial for Special Issue: “Multi-Source Data Assimilation for the Improvement of Hydrological Modeling Predictions”

by Huidae Cho and Lorena Liuzzo

Hydrology 2022, 9(1), 4; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology9010004 - 24 Dec 2021

Viewed by 2402

Abstract

Physically-based or process-based hydrologic models play a critical role in hydrologic forecasting [...] Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Multi-Source Data Assimilation for the Improvement of Hydrological Modeling Predictions)

27 pages, 4619 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

by Nega Chalie Emiru, John Walker Recha, Julian R. Thompson, Abrham Belay, Ermias Aynekulu, Alen Manyevere, Teferi D. Demissie, Philip M. Osano, Jabir Hussein, Mikias Biazen Molla, Girma Moges Mengistu and Dawit Solomon

Hydrology 2022, 9(1), 3; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology9010003 - 23 Dec 2021

Cited by 28 | Viewed by 6002

Abstract

This study investigated the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia. A soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was calibrated and validated against observed streamflow using SWAT CUP. The Mann–Kendall trend test (MK) was used to [...] Read more.

This study investigated the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia. A soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was calibrated and validated against observed streamflow using SWAT CUP. The Mann–Kendall trend test (MK) was used to assess climate trends. Meteorological drought (SPEI) and hydrological drought (SDI) were also investigated. Based on the ensemble mean of five global climate models (GCMs), projected increases in mean annual maximum temperature over the period 2015–2100 (compared with a 1983–2014 baseline) range from 1.16 to 1.73 °C, while increases in minimum temperature range between 0.79 and 2.53 °C. Increases in mean annual precipitation range from 1.8% at Addis Ababa to 45.5% over the Hombole area. High streamflow (Q₅) declines at all stations except Ginchi. Low flows (Q₉₀) also decline with Q₉₀ equaling 0 m³ s⁻¹ (i.e., 100% reduction) at some gauging stations (Akaki and Hombole) for individual GCMs. The SPEI confirmed a significant drought trend in the past, while the frequency and severity of drought will increase in the future. The basin experienced conditions that varied from modest dry periods to a very severe hydrological drought between 1986 and 2005. The projected SDI ranges from modestly dry to modestly wet conditions. Climate change in the basin would enhance seasonal variations in hydrological conditions. Both precipitation and streamflow will decline in the wet seasons and increase in the dry seasons. These changes are likely to have an impact on agricultural activities and other human demands for water resources throughout the basin and will require the implementation of appropriate mitigation measures. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology–Climate Interactions)

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19 pages, 3916 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Spatiotemporal Trend Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall over Ziway Lake Basin, Ethiopia

by Aster Tesfaye Hordofa, Olkeba Tolessa Leta, Tane Alamirew and Abebe Demissie Chukalla

Hydrology 2022, 9(1), 2; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology9010002 - 22 Dec 2021

Cited by 15 | Viewed by 4259

Abstract

Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. This study assessed the historical (1983–2005) and future (2026–2100) rainfall, maximum temperature (T_max), and minimum temperature (T_min) trends of the Ziway Lake [...] Read more.

Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. This study assessed the historical (1983–2005) and future (2026–2100) rainfall, maximum temperature (T_max), and minimum temperature (T_min) trends of the Ziway Lake Basin (Ethiopia). The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, while simulated historical and future climate data were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) datasets under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5. The CMIP5 datasets were statistically downscaled by using the climate model data for hydrologic modeling (CMhyd) tool and bias corrected using the distribution mapping method available in the CMhyd tool. The performance of simulated rainfall, T_max, and T_min of the CMIP5 models were statistically evaluated using observation datasets at eleven stations. The results showed that the selected CMIP5 models can reasonably simulate the monthly rainfall, T_max, and T_min at the majority of the stations. Modified Mann–Kendall trend test were applied to estimate the trends of annual rainfall, T_max, and T_min in the historical and future periods. We found that rainfall experienced no clear trends, while T_max, and T_min showed consistently significant increasing trends under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. However, the warming is expected to be greater under RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5 by the end of the 21st century, resulting in an increasing trend of T_max and T_min at all stations. The greatest warming occurred in the central part of the basin, with statistically significant increases largely seen by the end of the 21st century, which is expected to exacerbate the evapotranspiration demand of the area that could negatively affect the freshwater availability within the basin. This study increases our understanding of historic trends and projected future change effects on rainfall- and evapotranspiration-related climate variables, which can be used to inform adaptive water resource management strategies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Flow Modeling for Water Resources and Hydrological Engineering)

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14 pages, 18461 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Russian Rivers Streamflow Forecasting Using Hydrograph Extrapolation Method

by Sergei Borsch, Yuri Simonov, Andrei Khristoforov, Natalia Semenova, Valeria Koliy, Ekaterina Ryseva, Vladimir Krovotyntsev and Victoria Derugina

Hydrology 2022, 9(1), 1; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology9010001 - 22 Dec 2021

Cited by 9 | Viewed by 2779

Abstract

This paper presents a method of hydrograph extrapolation, intended for simple and efficient streamflow forecasting with up to 10 days lead time. The forecast of discharges or water levels is expressed by a linear formula depending on their values on the date of [...] Read more.

This paper presents a method of hydrograph extrapolation, intended for simple and efficient streamflow forecasting with up to 10 days lead time. The forecast of discharges or water levels is expressed by a linear formula depending on their values on the date of the forecast release and the five previous days. Such forecast techniques were developed for more than 2700 stream gauging stations across Russia. Forecast verification has shown that this method can be successfully applied to large rivers with a smooth shape of hydrographs, while for small mountain catchments, the accuracy of the method tends to be lower. The method has been implemented into real-time continuous operations in the Hydrometcentre of Russia. In the territory of Russia, 18 regions have been identified with a single dependency of the maximum lead time of good forecasts on the area and average slope of the catchment surface for different catchments of each region; the possibilities of forecasting river streamflow by the method of hydrograph extrapolation are approximately estimated. The proposed method can be considered as a first approximation while solving the problem of forecasting river flow in conditions of a lack of meteorological information or when it is necessary to quickly develop a forecasting system for a large number of catchments. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Hydrological and Hydrodynamic Processes and Modelling)

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