In this section, the parameter sampling results will be shown and discussed, then the estimated parameters will be used to characterize the simulation performance in two application scenarios with highly dynamic load profiles.
4.1. Parameter Distribution
The parameter sampling results are shown in
Figure 4. In the following sections, the results for each parameter will be discussed.
Bruggeman coefficients. The posterior distributions of the investigated parameters for the first two cases have a similar form and the parameters have a limited credible interval. As a result, the Bruggeman coefficients in the first two cases can be regarded as practically identifiable. For the third and fourth cases, where the corresponding kinetic and transport parameters measured in the frequency domain with a SOC dependence are substituted, the form of the distribution has changed significantly. The Bruggeman coefficients for the negative electrode and separator show an extended distribution with a much wider credible interval compared to the first two cases. We can first exclude the possibility that the change is caused by the external ohmic resistance, as the parameter identifiability in the first two cases and in the last two cases is similar, respectively. We assume that this change can be attributed to the substituted transport parameters with SOC dependence, which has changed the form of the defined parameter space. It can be concluded here that the substitution of parameters with SOC dependence can have a significant impact on the parameter identifiability.
Solid phase diffusivity. The solid phase diffusivities are only estimated in the first two cases and are substituted as known parameters in the third and fourth cases. In both cases, the PDFs have similar forms. For the negative electrode, the PDFs have a clearly defined lower bound and are approaching the upper bound of the parameter, which is consistent with the fact that the diffusion process with a high diffusivity is no longer rate limiting. Therefore, the solid diffusivity in the anode is assumed to be unidentifiable, where only the lower bound can be determined. In contrast to the anode diffusivity, the cathode diffusivity shows a clearly defined peak for the PDF and a narrow credible interval. Moreover, the diffusivity in the first case is slightly higher than that in the second case. It is worth noticing that the solid phase diffusivity identified using time domain fitting has approximately the same order of magnitude as the value identified in the frequency domain [
62], which implies that the diffusivity identified using time domain fitting may be used as an approximated value when a frequency domain based identification is not available.
Liquid phase diffusivity. The liquid phase diffusivity in the first two cases shows a distribution form similar to the solid diffusivity in the anode, where a clearly defined lower bound can be observed but the distribution approaches the upper bound, which leads to a non-rate-limiting behavior. In the third and fourth cases, though a peak can be seen, the credible interval is rather large compared to the parameter bound, thus the liquid diffusivity is practically unidentifiable in all cases. The unidentifiability is possibly attributed to the fact that in fresh cells with nondegraded electrolytes, the overpotential contribution caused by the liquid phase diffusion only amounts to a tiny part of the overall overpotential.
Liquid phase conductivity. The conductivity in the liquid phase can be well identified with a narrow credible interval in the first two cases, the identified values are slightly lower than those identified in the third and fourth cases. In the third and fourth cases, the credible interval becomes significantly wider and the parameter identifiability is lower than in the first two cases, this may imply that the liquid phase conduction is no longer a rate-limiting factor in the model. On the other hand, the distribution form has changed significantly as well, which can be only explained that the parameter space must have been changed by the SOC dependence of the substituted parameters. The phenomenon observed above is consistent with the fact that in fresh cells the liquid phase conduction is generally negligible and cannot be effectively identified.
Solid phase conductivity. The solid phase conductivity in the negative electrode has a wide credible interval and is practically unidentifiable in all cases, which is in line with our expectation that the solid phase conduction process in the anode is usually negligible due to the high conductivity of graphite [
73]. The solid phase conductivity in the cathode in the first two cases has a wide credible interval and thus is unidentifiable, while in the third and fourth cases the parameter distribution has a well-defined credible interval and is thus identifiable. It is again worth noticing that the substitution of the SOC-dependent parameters in the model can significantly change the form of the posterior distribution and parameter identifiability irrespective of the external ohmic resistance. The parameter identified in the third case is lower than that in the fourth case by about an order of magnitude, which is very likely caused by the inclusion of the external ohmic resistance in case 4. The estimated solid phase conductivity in the fourth case is close to the value measured using other methods [
74], thus we tend to believe that the estimated value is plausible. Another phenomenon worth noticing is that the Bruggeman coefficient of the cathode in case 3 is lower than that in case 4, but the relation for the solid conductivity is reversed. Through a simple calculation, it is found that in both cases the effective solid conductivities in the cathode are nearly the same. By inspecting the equation for the current distribution in the liquid phase, only the effective solid phase conductivity appears and the bulk conductivity does not appear anywhere else. Theoretically, the posterior distribution of the bulk solid conductivity in cathode should give a wide credible interval as in the first two cases, but according to the results, the parameter turns out to be well identifiable. This phenomenon can only be ascribed to the SOC dependence of the substituted parameters. Due to the observed change of the posterior distribution in cases 3 and 4 compared to that in cases 1 and 2, we can basically draw the conclusion that the combined method can indeed change the identifiability of some parameters and obtain more reasonable results.
Interfacial parameters. The three interfacial parameters, namely the kinetic reaction rate constant in both electrodes and the film resistance in the SiC anode, are all unidentifiable in all cases. All PDFs show a credible interval almost comparable with the defined parameter range and a reliable estimation of each parameter is impossible. The results highlight the importance of choosing suitable characterization methods for different model parameters. In most cases, only constant charging/discharging data is selected to establish the identification problem; however, in such cases the current profile generally does not contain any considerable component with a frequency comparable to the characteristic frequency of the interfacial processes, which usually ranges from 100 Hz to 1000 Hz [
41,
61,
75].
From the parameter estimation results and discussions made above, the following conclusions can be made: (1) while the inclusion of the external ohmic resistance may slightly change the probability distribution of the parameters, it basically does not change the identifiability of the parameters; (2) the substitution of identified parameters with SOC dependence may significantly change the posterior distribution of the parameters and identifiability of the parameters; (3) interfacial parameters may be hard or even impossible to identify using the time domain fitting method due to the lack of dynamic current component. The results for the calculated sensitivity indices and credible intervals of the parameters are summarized in
Table 5.
4.2. Parameter Correlation Analysis
In the last section, the posterior parameter distributions have been characterized, where some parameters show a wide distribution and prove to be unidentifiable. Another important yet unsolved issue is: does any correlation relationship exist among the unidentifiable parameters? In
Section 2.3, the principle for the parameter correlation test and the parameter combinations used for the test have been introduced. In this section, the parameter samples will be tested for possible correlation. The results for the sample evaluation are shown in
Figure 5,
Figure 6,
Figure 7,
Figure 8 and
Figure 9. To infer whether one parameter is possibly correlated with other parameters, the original samples, and the reconstructed sample vectors are plotted on the same axis. To visualize with which processes the tested process is correlated, a parameter correlation chart is generated and shown in
Figure 10. In the correlation chart, the number in each column represents the correlation coefficient calculated using Equation (
15). Each group of calculated coefficients is scaled by dividing the coefficients by the maximum absolute value of the coefficients in this group so that all values will be transformed into the interval
and are comparable.
The parameter correlations for cases 1 and 2 are shown in
Figure 5 and
Figure 6. It can be observed that in both cases the liquid conduction and diffusion in all electrodes and the solid diffusion in the cathode show an obvious correlation behavior, which indicates that these processes are correlated with other processes. An unexpected result is that the solid conduction process in the cathode and the last three kinetic processes seem not to be correlated with any processes despite that the four parameters corresponding to the four processes have a wide posterior distribution. The solid conduction in the anode is excluded from the investigation here due to the fact that the solid conductivity in the graphite anode is orders of magnitude higher than that in the liquid phase and thus has only negligible contribution to the model output [
73]. Berliner et al. [
13] investigated the correlation relationship for the diffusion coefficients and reaction rate constant using a synthetic voltage curve and a correlation relationship between
and
was discovered. We assume that this correlation may arise from the low current rate used for the experiment. In such cases, the overpotential is less influenced by the diffusion and the fast kinetic processes at the particle–electrolyte interface are dominating. Another possible reason for this unexpected phenomenon is that the correlation relationship in Equation (
10) may be distorted by the time-variant concentration in the solid particles and in the electrolyte. Since the correlation has been well observed in the work of Berliner et al. [
13], we assume that this could be attributed to the nonuniform liquid phase concentration under 1 C discharging rate. Furthermore, the clearly defined correlation found in [
13] may be attributed to the synthetic data generated using a well-defined model.
Figure 5.
Results of parameter correlation for case 1. It can be observed that all processes except the conduction in the solid phase, the solid diffusion in the anode, and the interfacial processes are correlated with each other in different parameter ranges.
Figure 5.
Results of parameter correlation for case 1. It can be observed that all processes except the conduction in the solid phase, the solid diffusion in the anode, and the interfacial processes are correlated with each other in different parameter ranges.
Figure 6.
Results of parameter correlation for case 2. Similar to the results of case 1, it can be observed that all processes except the conduction in the solid phase, the solid diffusion in the anode, and the interfacial processes are correlated with each other in different parameter ranges.
Figure 6.
Results of parameter correlation for case 2. Similar to the results of case 1, it can be observed that all processes except the conduction in the solid phase, the solid diffusion in the anode, and the interfacial processes are correlated with each other in different parameter ranges.
To find out whether the unidentifiability arises from the non-sensitivity or correlation relationship of the parameters, the objective function value inside the exponential function in Equation (
5) is plotted for both case 1 and case 2 for each possible parameter combination (see
Figure 7), the results for case 1 are shown in the upper triangular part of the figure and for case 2 in the lower triangular part. In
Figure 7, it can be seen that for case 1 a clearly defined oval isosurface (marked with a red dashed line) can be seen for some parameter combinations, where all parameter combinations inside the ellipse have almost the same objective function value. For the solid conductivity in the cathode, no obvious correlation pattern can be observed, all data points with similar objective function values are concentrated in the region close to the lower bound, which coincides with the posterior distribution. The film resistance is slightly negatively correlated with the anode reaction rate constant. Similarly, a negative correlation is also seen between the anode and cathode reaction constant. Moreover, the found correlation relationship exists only in a limited area of each parameter, for the anode ca.
ms
−1, for the cathode ca.
ms
−1, which corresponds to the peak area in the posterior distribution for both parameters (see
Figure 4). An obvious positive correlation can be observed between the cathode reaction constant and the film resistance. This may be caused by the coordinated change of the charge transfer overpotential between the anode and cathode. The phenomena shown above indicate that the investigations and conclusions made using synthetic data may not be valid in practical applications, which highlights the necessity of a comprehensive parameter identifiability analysis in practical applications.
Figure 7.
Two-dimensional plot of the objective function value for case 1 (upper triangular) and case 2 (lower triangular). For case 1, an obvious correlation can be observed between the film resistance and the anodic reaction rate constant, film resistance and the cathodic reaction rate constant, and anodic reaction rate constant and cathodic reaction rate constant. For case 2, no correlation pattern can be seen.
Figure 7.
Two-dimensional plot of the objective function value for case 1 (upper triangular) and case 2 (lower triangular). For case 1, an obvious correlation can be observed between the film resistance and the anodic reaction rate constant, film resistance and the cathodic reaction rate constant, and anodic reaction rate constant and cathodic reaction rate constant. For case 2, no correlation pattern can be seen.
For case 2, it can be seen that no clearly defined isoline or isosurface is existent for any parameter combination, and all global optimum points are nearly evenly distributed. This phenomenon may have two origins: (1) the isoline or isosurface lies outside the defined parameter range and cannot be observed here; (2) these parameters have only negligible influence on the model output.
For cases 3 and 4, similar behavior can be observed in
Figure 8 and
Figure 9. For all processes except for the solid conduction in the anode, a good correlation can be observed. The solid conduction in the anode is not well correlated with other processes, we assume that this is attributable to the higher conductivity and negligible overpotential caused by the graphite anode. According to
Figure 10c,d, all processes investigated in the correlation chart are correlated and a unique optimal parameter combination does not exist. It is worth mentioning here that although the solid conduction in the cathode shows a correlation relationship with other processes, the solid conductivity in the cathode has a narrow credible interval (see
Figure 4) and is thus regarded as identifiable.
Figure 8.
Results of parameter correlation for case 3. A correlation relation can be observed for each process except for the solid conduction in the anode.
Figure 8.
Results of parameter correlation for case 3. A correlation relation can be observed for each process except for the solid conduction in the anode.
Figure 9.
Results of parameter correlation for case 4. A correlation relation can be observed for each process except for the solid conduction in the anode.
Figure 9.
Results of parameter correlation for case 4. A correlation relation can be observed for each process except for the solid conduction in the anode.
Figure 10.
Correlation chart for cases 1–4, where each column in the matrix represents the correlation coefficients with the tested process.
Figure 10.
Correlation chart for cases 1–4, where each column in the matrix represents the correlation coefficients with the tested process.
4.3. Selection of Parameters from Posterior Distributions
In previous sections, a comprehensive identifiability and correlation analysis has been conducted, the results have been shown and explained in detail. However, the resulting parameter distributions cannot be used as the input for the p2D model to validate the results; therefore, a point estimate must be selected from the posterior distributions. For the experimental validation, generally the expected value of each parameter is chosen and substituted into the model [
10]. Nevertheless, the prerequisite for selecting the expected value as the point estimate is that either all parameters are not correlated or they are only simply linearly correlated so that for the expected values the linear correlation relationship is still valid. For example, if we assume that the parameters
and
are linearly correlated and the following relation holds:
where
and
are correlation constants. If the expected value operator is applied to both sides of Equation (
18), the following equation is obtained:
which implies that for both
and
the expected value can be selected as the point estimate. However, if
and
are not linearly but instead nonlinearly correlated, for example:
and then the expected value operator is again applied to both sides of the equation, the following equation can be obtained:
This equation clearly indicates that if the parameters are not linearly correlated, the expected values of the parameters will not fulfill the correlation relationship. Simply selecting the expected value for each correlated parameter may lead to an unexpected error. In this work, the parameter combination used for the experimental validation will be selected according to the following principle:
For parameters with a small credible interval (irrespective of identifiability), the expected value is selected.
For parameters that are practically unidentifiable and there exists no correlation with other parameters, the expected value is selected.
For parameters that are correlated, the expected value of the parameter with the highest sensitivity index will be calculated and selected for validation, the values of other parameters will be determined accordingly so that the correlation among the chosen parameters is still valid. If multiple parameter combinations are possible, then the combination closest to the expected values is chosen.
According to the principles explained above, the determined parameter values are summarized in
Table 6.