1. Introduction and Background
Diffusion models are widely used to describe dynamical systems in economics, finance, biology, genetics, physics, engineering, neuroscience, queueing, and other fields (cf. Bailey [
1], Ricciardi [
2], Gardiner [
3], Stirzaker [
4], Janssen et al. [
5], Pavliotis [
6]). In various applications, it is useful to consider diffusion processes with linear infinitesimal drift and linear infinitesimal variance. This class incorporates Wiener, Ornstein–Uhlenbeck, and Feller diffusion processes. In population dynamics, these processes can be used to describe the growth of a population and the zero state represents the absorbing extinction threshold. With this aim, we study the absorbing problem for linear diffusion processes.
In the remaining part of this section, we shall briefly review some background results on the absorbing problems that will be used in the next sections for Wiener, Ornstein–Uhlenbeck and Feller diffusion processes.
Let
be a time-inhomogeneous diffusion (TNH-D) process with state-space
, which satisfies the stochastic differential equation
with
and
denoting, respectively, the infinitesimal drift and the infinitesimal variance of
and where
is a standard Brownian motion. Often,
, with
unattainable endpoints, but in some cases
is confined to the state space
and in the zero state is imposed an absorbing condition.
When the endpoints
of
are unattainable boundaries, the transition probability density function (PDF)
is the solution of the backward Kolmogorov equation (cf. Dynkin [
7])
with the initial delta condition
. In the backward Kolmogovov Equation (
1), the forward variables
x and
t are constant and enter only through the initial and boundary conditions.
We remark that the PDF
is also solution of a forward Kolmogorov equation, also known as the Fokker–Planck equation (cf. Dynkin [
7]), in which the backward variables
and
are essentially constant. In this paper, we choose to use the Kolmogorov backward equation because we will address absorption problems. Indeed, if one is interested to the first-passage time distribution through a fixed state
S as a function of the initial position
, then the backward Kolmogorov equation provides the most appropriate method (cf. Cox and Miller [
8]).
For a diffusion process
, the first-passage time (FPT) problem can be reduced to estimate the density of the random variable
which describes the FPT of
through the state
S starting from
.
The FPT problem plays an important role in various biological applications. For instance, in the context of population dynamics the FPT problem is suitable to model population’s extinction or persistence (see Bailey [
1], Ricciardi [
2], Allen [
9,
10]).
Let
be the FPT density, being
the distribution function of the random variable
. If the endpoints of
are unattainable boundaries, the densities
and
are related by the following renewal equation (cf. Blake and Lindsey [
11]):
Equation (
2) indicates that any sample path that reaches
, after starting from
at time
, must necessarily cross
S for the first time at some intermediate instant
.
For diffusion processes, closed form expressions for FPT densities through constant boundaries are not available, except in some special cases (see Ricciardi et al. [
12], Ding and Rangarajan [
13], Molini et al. [
14], Giorno and Nobile [
15], Masoliver [
16]). In particular, closed form expressions are available in the following cases: (i) the Wiener process through an arbitrary constant boundary; (ii) the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process through the boundary in which the drift vanishes; and (iii) the Feller process through the zero state. In the literature many efforts have been devoted to determining the asymptotic behavior of FPT density and its moments for large boundaries or large times and to search efficient numerical and simulation methods to estimate the FPT densities (cf. Ricciardi et al. [
12], Linetsky [
17]). Furthermore, the FPT problems play a relevant role also in the context of fractional processes (see, for instance, Guo et al. [
18], Wiese [
19], Abundo [
20], Leonenko and Pirozzi [
21]).
For a TNH-D process
confined to interval
, with 0 absorbing boundary and
unattainable boundary, we denote with
the PDF of
with an absorbing condition in the zero state. The PDF
satisfies the Kolmogorov Equation (
1) with the initial condition
and the absorbing condition
.
The densities
,
, and
are related by the following integral equations (cf. Siegert [
22]):
In the context of population dynamics, the first integral in (4) gives the survival probability, i.e., the probability that the trajectories of the process
are not absorbed in the zero state in
. Moreover, from (4) one obtains the FPT density
and the ultimate FPT probability of
through the zero-state
In population dynamics,
in Equation (
5) represents the density of the time required to reach the zero state for the first time (extinction density); instead,
in Equation (
6) provides the probability that the population will become extinct sooner or later.
For a TNH-D process
, the
local time at an interior state
is a random variable defined as (cf. Karlin and Taylor [
23], Aït-Sahalia and Park [
24]):
where, for
, we have set
The asymptotic average of the local time in the presence of an absorbing boundary in the zero state, for
and
is:
For a time-homogeneous diffusion (TH-D) process
one has
and
for all
t. In this case, the classification of the endpoints of the state space
, due to Feller [
25,
26], is based on integrability properties of the functions
called scale function and speed density, respectively. Such functions allow us to determine the FPT moments for TH-D processes thanks to the Siegert formula (cf. Siegert [
22]). Specifically, if
is a TH-D process with state space
, for
it results in
for
, if
and if
converges one has:
for
, if
, and if
converges one has
with .
In the sequel, for the FPT of TH-D process
we denote by
the variance, the coefficient of variation, and the skewness, respectively.
For a TH-D process in
, with 0 absorbing boundary, if
and
the asymptotic average of the local time is (cf. Giorno and Nobile [
27]):
where
and
.
For a TH-D process
, in the sequel we denote by
the Laplace transform (LT) of the function
.
Plan of the Paper
In
Section 2, we consider the time-inhomogeneous Wiener (TNH-W) process
, with infinitesimal drift and infinitesimal variance
and
, respectively. For
, with
, we determine the PDF
and the FPT density
. Furthermore, for the time-homogeneous Wiener (TH-W) process, the FPT moments through a boundary
and the asymptotic average of the local time are studied.
In
Section 3, we take into account the time-inhomogeneous Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (TNH-OU) process
, with infinitesimal drift and infinitesimal variance
and
, respectively. For
, with
and
, we determine
and
. Moreover, for the TH-OU process, the FPT mean through a constant boundary and the asymptotic average of the local time are evaluated.
In
Section 4, we consider the time-inhomogeneous Feller (TNH-F) process
with infinitesimal drift and infinitesimal variance
and
, respectively, with an absorbing boundary in the zero-state. For
, with
, we obtain
and
. Furthermore, for the TH-F process, the FPT mean through a constant boundary and the asymptotic average of the local time are examined.
We remark that time-inhomogeneous Wiener, Ornstein–Uhlenbeck and Feller diffusion processes are used in biological systems to model the growth of a population. In such a context, represents the growth intensity function and denotes the immigration/emigration intensity function. The functions (in Wiener and Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes) and (in the Feller process) are the noise intensity functions and take into account the environmental fluctuations.
In
Section 2,
Section 3 and
Section 4, by using Siegert Formulas (10) and (11), extensive computation are performed with MATHEMATICA to obtain the mean, the variance, the coefficient of variation, and the skewness of FPT for the TH-W, TH-OU, and TH-F processes for various choices of parameters. For these processes, some considerations on the asymptotic average of the local time in the presence of an absorbing boundary in the zero state are also made.
In
Section 5, for
, some relationships between the PDF in the presence of an absorbing boundary in the zero state and between the FPT densities through zero for Wiener, Ornstein–Uhlenbeck and Feller processes are proved. Moreover, for
some asymptotic results for large times between the FPT densities are provided.
3. Ornstein–Uhlenbeck-Type Diffusion Process
Let
,
, be a TNH-OU process, having infinitesimal drift and infinitesimal variance
with state space
, where
,
,
are continuous functions. Note that when
for all
t, the process
identifies with the TNH-W process
having infinitesimal moments (
13).
Although the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process has been originally used in physics to model the velocity of a Brownian particle (see Uhlenbeck and Ornstein [
30]), it finds many applications in several scientific fields. In particular, the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process is frequently proposed as a stochastic model for the single neuronal activity (see Ricciardi and Sacerdote [
31], Lánský and Ditlevsen [
32]). A wide field of applications of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process lies also in mathematical finance to model the evolution of the interest rate of financial markets (cf. Vasicek [
33], Hull and White [
34]).
The PDF of
is normal,
with
being
We now consider the TNH-OU process
, having infinitesimal moments given in (
27), restricted to the state space
, with 0 absorbing boundary, and denote by
its PDF. For the TNH-OU process
with 0 absorbing boundary, we take into account two cases: the proportional case in which
, with
,
and
, and the time-homogeneous case.
3.1. Proportional Case for the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process
Proposition 4. Let , with , , in (27) and defined in (30). For the TNH-OU process one has with given in (28). Proof. By choosing
, from (
28) the following symmetry relation holds,
so that from (
3) one obtains
for
and
. Hence, by virtue of the renewal Equation (
2), Equation (
31) follows from (
32). □
From (
31), if
, for
and
one obtains
Proposition 5. Under the assumptions of Proposition 4, for the TNH-OU process one has Furthermore, if , the ultimate FPT probability for is Proof. Recalling (
33), one obtains
By virtue of (
5) and recalling (
36), Equation (
34) follows. Moreover, under the assumption
, Equation (
35) follows, making use of (
36) in (
6) by noting that
for any
. □
3.2. Time-Homogeneous Case for the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Process
We consider the TH-OU process
, by setting in (
27)
,
,
, with
,
and
. The end points
and
are nonattracting natural boundaries for
and attracting natural boundaries for
. The scale function and the speed density, defined in (
9), for the TH-OU process
are
respectively. The LT of
is
where
is the parabolic cylinder function defined as (cf. Gradshteyn and Ryzhik [
35], p. 1028, no. 9.240). We have
in terms of Kummer’s confluent hypergeometric function
with
and
for
In the following, we will make use of the relations (cf. Gradshteyn and Ryzhik [
35], p. 1030, no. 9.251 and no. 9.254).
For the TH-OU process, taking the Laplace transform in (
2) and recalling (
38), for
one has
where
denotes the sign function that returns
if
,
if
and 0 otherwise. Moreover, by setting
in (
41) and recalling (
40), for
one has
so that the first passage through the state
S is a sure event for
.
The inverse LT of can be obtained in closed form only if .
Proposition 6. For the TH-OU process, the FPT density through the boundary is and the ultimate FPT probability is Proof. Because
from (
41) for
and
one has
Equation (
43) follows by taking the inverse LT of (
45) and making use of the following result (cf. Erdèlyi et al. [
36], p. 290, no. 9):
Moreover, by setting
in (
45) and recalling (
40), one obtains (
44). □
When
, the FPT moments through
S starting from
can be evaluated by making use of Siegert Formulas (
10) and (
11) with
and
. In particular, for
and
one has
where
Furthermore, for
from (
10) and (
11) one obtains (cf. Ricciardi et al. [
12])
for
so that for
the FPT density of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process exhibits an exponential asymptotic behavior as the boundary moves away from the starting point.
In
Table 3 and
Table 4, the mean
, the variance
, the coefficient of variation
, and the skewness
of the FPT, obtained by using (
10) and (
11), are listed for
,
,
and some choices of
and
S.
From
Table 3, we note that for the TH-OU process
the coefficient of variation approaches the value 1 and the skewness approaches the value 2 for large boundaries. Hence, when
the FPT density of the TH-OU process exhibits an exponential behavior for large boundaries
S, such that
.
From
Table 4, we note that for the TH-OU process
the coefficient of variation and the skewness decreases as
S decreases.
Moreover, taking the Laplace transform in (
3) one has
so that, recalling (
38) and (
41), one can obtain the LT of
for the TH-OU process in
with 0 absorbing boundary.
Proposition 7. Let be a TH-OU process.
For , it results in
Proof. Because
is a nonattracting boundary for
and attracting for
, Equations (
47) and (
48) follow from (
12) making use of (
37) and (
42). □
From (
47) and (
48), for
,
and
one obtains
and
.
In
Figure 2, the asymptotic average of the local time for the TH-OU process
is plotted for
,
and some choices of
and
.
5. Relationships and Asymptotic Results
In this section, for some relationships between the PDF in the presence of an absorbing boundary in the zero state and between the FPT densities through zero for Wiener, Ornstein–Uhlenbeck and Feller processes are proven; moreover, for some asymptotic results for large times between the FPT densities are provided.
5.1. Relations between the Transition Densities with an Absorbing Boundary in the Zero State
We consider the TNH-F process (
49) with
in the presence of an absorbing boundary in the zero state, and we show that its PDF can be related to the PDF of the Wiener and of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes with an absorbing boundary in the zero state.
Proposition 11. Let be a TNH-F process with and , where , and let be a TNH-W process with and . One has Proof. For the TNH-F process
, by setting
and
in (
50) and in Proposition 9, recalling that
one has
and
where
. Furthermore, for the TNH-W process
with
and
, one has
. Then, (
63) and (
64) follow by comparing (
66) and (
67) with (
17) and (
18), respectively. □
Under the assumptions of the Proposition 13, one has for and, if , one obtains for with .
Proposition 12. Let be a TNH-F process with and , where is not always zero and , and let be a TNH-OU process with and . One has Proof. For the TNH-F process
, by setting
in (
50) and in Proposition 9, recalling (
65), one obtains
and
with
and
given in (
30) and (
51), respectively. Moreover, in the TNH-OU process
we set
,
and we change
into
, so that, by virtue of (
29) and (
51), one has
. Then, (
68) and (
69) follow by comparing (
70) and (
71) with (
33) and (
34), respectively. □
Under the assumptions of Proposition 14, one has
for and, if , one obtains for with .
5.2. Asymptotic Behaviors between the FPT Densities
In this section, for some asymptotic results for large times between the FPT densities of TNH-W, TNH-OU and TNH-F processes are shown.
Proposition 13. Let be a TNH-F process with and , where , , and let be a TNH-W process with and . If , and one has Proof. Recalling (
18) and (
67) and noting that
, one has
from which, under the assumption
, Equation (
72) follows. □
Proposition 14. Let be a TNH-F process having and , with not always zero, , , and let be a TNH-OU process with and . If , and one has Proof. Making use of (
34) and (
52) and noting that
, one obtains
from which, recalling that
, Equation (
73) follows. □
6. Conclusions
For the Wiener, Ornstein–Uhlenbeck, and Feller processes, we analyze the transition densities in the presence of an absorbing boundary in the zero state and the FPT problem to the zero state. Particular attention is dedicated to the proportional cases and to the time-homogeneous cases, by achieving the FPT densities through the zero state. Extensive computation are performed with MATHEMATICA to obtain the mean, the variance, the coefficient of variation and the skewness of FPT for TH-W, TH-OU and TH-F processes. Moreover, for these processes, a detailed study of the asymptotic average of local time with an absorbing boundary in the zero-state is carried out.
In
Table 6, a summary containing the conditions and the most important equations numbering in
Section 2,
Section 3 and
Section 4 concerning the absorbing problem for Wiener, Ornstein–Uhlenbeck and Feller diffusion processes is given.
As shown in
Table 6, by setting
in TNH-W, TNH-OU and TNH-F processes, the PDF in the presence of an absorbing boundary in the zero state and the FPT density through zero are given in closed form. Moreover, in TH-W, TH-F processes, the previous densities are obtainable, whereas for the TH-OU process only the LT is available.
The knowledge of the PDF in the presence of an absorbing boundary in the zero state is of interest in the context of biological systems because it allows us to evaluate the survival probabilities (
20), (
36) and (
54) for Wiener, Ornstein–Uhlenbeck and Feller processes, respectively. Moreover, such PDF allows one to get information on the FPT density through zero (extinction density) (
18), (
34), and (
52) and on the probability of extinction (
19), (
35) and (
53) of the considered processes. Furthermore, the asymptotic average of the local time for TH-W, TH-OU, and TH-F processes provides information on the average of the sojourn time in the various states before the absorption occurs in the zero state.
The results of
Section 5 show that the same FPT density through the zero-state (extinction density) may correspond to different diffusion processes with modified initial states.