Reframing Wildfire Simulations for Understanding Complex Human–Landscape Interactions in Cross-Cultural Contexts: A Case Study from Northern Australia
Abstract
:1. Introduction
1.1. Background
1.2. Fire as a Complex System
1.3. Simulation and Participatory Modelling for Managing Complex Systems
- Facilitate and encourage learning from each other and the process;
- Keep it flexible and focus on the process rather than the product;
- Promote adaptive management, adaptive modelling and adaptive decision making
- Accept a different kind of uncertainty—be certain about uncertainty; and
- Accept untraditional metrics of success, validation and verification.
1.4. Study Landscape and Current Fire Management Practice
- help people use fire-related data sets to understand fire dynamics
- allow users to visualise how fire behaviour is affected by interactions between landscape and fire weather variables
- facilitate the communication of fire management goals and strategies between a culturally diverse set of land managers
2. Methods
2.1. Fire Propagation Modelling for Northern Australia
- Variation in fuel loads and their state of curing: models should include estimates of the amount of grass fuel and its capacity to carry fire, which vary with location in the landscape, time since the last rain, and time since the previous fire at a location.
- Pre-existing fire breaks: watercourses and cliff lines can prevent the spread of fires, as will anthropogenic features such as roads and fence lines. Models should show how strengthening existing impediments to fire spread by lighting fires alongside them in the early Dry Season can increase their effectiveness at stopping fires under more extreme fire weather conditions.
- Terrain and fire weather: fires more readily propagate uphill than downhill, downwind than upwind, and on hot dry days rather than cool or humid days. Models must therefore include slope and variables that account for humidity and temperature variation, as well as wind speed and direction, both seasonally and during the diurnal cycle. Both wind speed and temperature tend to increase in intensity in the afternoon, while at night the wind dies and the temperature often drops below the dew point, meaning that moisture forms on fine fuels.
- Unpredictable fire behaviours: models must incorporate the uncertainty arising from significant changes in burn patterns caused by minor variations in landscape features or fire weather conditions.
2.2. Simulation Model Structure and Data
- global fire weather variables,
- raster spatial layers representing landscape characteristics, and
- “burning cell” attributes.
2.2.1. Fire Weather Characteristics
2.2.2. Landscape Characteristics
2.2.3. Burning Cell Spread Probability
2.3. Model Refinement through Participatory Engagement
3. Results
3.1. Simulation Model Interface and Outputs
3.2. Applications
“Fire is a complex thing affected by wind strength and direction and fuel and roads and things, but it was good because it pulled it all apart and helped us to understand what was happening, it showed things changing [through time], it reinforced what we had learnt on the ground when we had burnt before.”
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
“If the whole process of modelling has succeeded, something will have happened in our head, namely that an understanding of relationships has emerged.”
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Fisher, R.; Heckbert, S.; Garnett, S. Reframing Wildfire Simulations for Understanding Complex Human–Landscape Interactions in Cross-Cultural Contexts: A Case Study from Northern Australia. Fire 2021, 4, 46. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire4030046
Fisher R, Heckbert S, Garnett S. Reframing Wildfire Simulations for Understanding Complex Human–Landscape Interactions in Cross-Cultural Contexts: A Case Study from Northern Australia. Fire. 2021; 4(3):46. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire4030046
Chicago/Turabian StyleFisher, Rohan, Scott Heckbert, and Stephen Garnett. 2021. "Reframing Wildfire Simulations for Understanding Complex Human–Landscape Interactions in Cross-Cultural Contexts: A Case Study from Northern Australia" Fire 4, no. 3: 46. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire4030046
APA StyleFisher, R., Heckbert, S., & Garnett, S. (2021). Reframing Wildfire Simulations for Understanding Complex Human–Landscape Interactions in Cross-Cultural Contexts: A Case Study from Northern Australia. Fire, 4(3), 46. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire4030046