Binary logistic regression has been used to estimate the probability of lane change (
) in the Cell Transmission Model (CTM). These models remain rigid, as the flexibility to predict
for different cell size configurations has not been accounted
[...] Read more.
Binary logistic regression has been used to estimate the probability of lane change (
) in the Cell Transmission Model (CTM). These models remain rigid, as the flexibility to predict
for different cell size configurations has not been accounted for. This paper introduces a relaxation method to refine the conventional binary logistic
model using an event-tree approach. The
probability for increasing cell size and cell length was estimated by expanding the
probability of a pre-defined model generated from different configurations of speed and density differences. The reliability of the proposed models has been validated with NGSIM trajectory data. The results showed that the models could accurately estimate the probability of
with a slight difference between the actual
and predicted
(95% Confidence Interval). Furthermore, a comparison of prediction performance between the proposed model and the actual observations has verified the model’s prediction ability with an accuracy of 0.69 and Area Under Curve (
) value above 0.6. The proposed method was able to accommodate the presence of multiple
LCs when cell size changes. This is worthwhile to explore the importance of such consequences in affecting the performance of
prediction in the CTM model.
Full article