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The Water Cycle and Climate Change (2nd Edition)

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A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Climatology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 March 2024) | Viewed by 15104

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Dr. Yuqing Zhang

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School of Geography and Planning, Huaiyin Normal University, Huai’an 223300, China
Interests: climate change; compound meteohydrological extremes; heat waves; droughts; model simulations
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

A warmer climate will intensify the global and regional water cycle, leading to significant changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, streamflow, and water storage. For example, global warming can cause the redistribution of global and regional water resources on spatial and temporal scales. This redistribution may further increase precipitation variability (precipitation whiplash events), and can thus exacerbate extreme conditions (e.g., more droughts or floods). Assessing water cycle characteristics in the context of climate change has important implications for global and regional water resource management and food security. However, the assessments and mechanisms of climate warming on hydro-climatic extreme events certainly need to be deepened and expanded, especially for compound weather and climate extremes, which represent combinations of multiple drivers and/or hazards, amplifying disproportionate impacts on natural environments and the social economy compared to individual extremes. Therefore, it is important and necessary to quantify the impacts of climate change, as well as other anthropogenic factors, on the water cycle, such as streamflow, evapotranspiration, floods, and droughts.

This Special Issue provides a platform for studying the water cycle and its response to climate change, especially hydrometeorological extremes (e.g., individual, concurrent, and compound hydro-climatic extreme events). We sincerely invite researchers to contribute the latest research on the water cycle and climate change. We encourage the submission of research manuscripts which focus on, but are not limited to, the discussion of the following topics:

(1) Contributions of climate change to the water cycle.

(2) Impacts of climate change on hydroclimatic extremes.

(3) Identification and mechanisms of compound extreme hydroclimatic events.

(4) Model simulations of hydro-climatic extreme events.

(5) Historical assessments and future projections of hydrometeorological extremes.

(6) Socio-economic impacts of extreme hydrometeorological events under water cycle anomalies.

Dr. Yuqing Zhang
Guest Editor

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Keywords

climate change
hydrometeorological extremes
compound weather and climate extremes
model simulations
drought and flood
spatio-temporal patterns

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Published Papers (10 papers)

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Research

38 pages, 12543 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Climatic Challenges in the Growth Cycle of Winter Wheat in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain: New Perspectives on High-Temperature–Drought and Low-Temperature–Drought Compound Events

by Geng Chen, Ke Li, Haoting Gu, Yuexuan Cheng, Dan Xue, Hong Jia, Zhengyu Du and Zhongliang Li

Atmosphere 2024, 15(7), 747; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15070747 - 22 Jun 2024

Viewed by 808

Abstract

Global climate change increasingly impacts agroecosystems, particularly through high-temperature–drought and low-temperature–drought compound events. This study uses ground meteorological and remote sensing data and employs geostatistics, random forest models, and copula methods to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of these events and their impact on winter wheat in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 1982 to 2020. High-temperature–drought events increased in frequency and expanded from north to south, with about 40% of observation stations recording such events from 2001 to 2020. In contrast, low-temperature–drought events decreased in frequency, affecting up to 80% of stations, but with lower frequency than high-temperature–drought events. Sensitivity analyses show winter wheat is most responsive to maximum and minimum temperature changes, with significant correlations to drought and temperature extremes. Copula analysis indicates temperature extremes and drought severity are crucial in determining compound event probability and return periods. High-temperature–drought events are likely under high temperatures and mild drought, while low-temperature–drought events are more common under low temperatures and mild drought. These findings highlight the need for effective agricultural adaptation strategies to mitigate future climate change impacts. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Water Cycle and Climate Change (2nd Edition))

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11 pages, 9112 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceCommunication

Global Precipitation for the Year 2023 and How It Relates to Longer Term Variations and Trends

by Robert F. Adler and Guojun Gu

Atmosphere 2024, 15(5), 535; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15050535 - 27 Apr 2024

Viewed by 2034

Abstract

In this paper, the global distribution of precipitation for 2023, in terms of global totals and regional anomaly patterns, is analyzed using information from the new Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) V3.2 Monthly product, including how the precipitation amounts and patterns from 2023 fit into the longer record from 1983–2023. The tropical pattern of anomalies for 2023 is dominated by the effect of the El Nino which began during the Northern Hemisphere spring, after three plus years of La Nina conditions. The transition from La Nina conditions through 2022 shows the rapid change in many regional features from positive to negative anomalies or the reverse. Comparison of the observed regional trend maps with climate model results indicates similarity between the observations and the model results forced by observed SSTs, while the “free-running” model ensemble shows only a broad general agreement over large regions. Global total precipitation shows about a 3% range over the span of data, with El Nino and La Nina years prominent as positive and negative features, with 2023 showing a small positive global anomaly. The ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) latitude band, 0–10° N, sets a record high mean rain rate in 2023 after a steady upward trend over the decades, probably a response related to global warming. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Water Cycle and Climate Change (2nd Edition))

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23 pages, 35706 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Trend Projections of Potential Evapotranspiration in Yangtze River Delta and the Uncertainty

by Lu Ding, Yi Yu and Shaobo Zhang

Atmosphere 2024, 15(3), 357; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15030357 - 15 Mar 2024

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1061

Abstract

Global warming may increase potential evapotranspiration (ETp), reducing the water resources in Yangzi River Delta. Therefore, it is important to investigate the trend of ETp there under the background of climate change. To this purpose, the systematic biases in temperature outputs of 24 global climate models (GCMs) under 3 shared socioeconomic pathways—representative concentration pathways (SSPs) emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5)—are first corrected by using 8 bias correction methods. Then, the trend of ETp in Yangtze River Delta is projected by using 4 ETp calculation formulas (Blaney–Criddle, Hargreaves–Samani, Makkink, and Priestley–Taylor). The uncertainty of the projections is estimated and decomposed by using multi-way analysis of variance frameworks. The influence of uncertainty on the projected change signal is quantified by using the signal-to-noise ratio. The results show that all emission scenarios indicate robust increments of ETp. Specifically, relative to 1971~2000, ETp will increase by 0.14~0.17 mm d⁻¹ (5.7~6.8%) during 2021~2050 and by 0.21~0.41 mm d⁻¹ (8.5~16.7%) during 2061~2090, respectively. During 2021~2050, the uncertainty of ETp projections is dominantly contributed by the main effects of GCM (63%) and the ETp calculation formula (24%). During 2061~2090, it is mainly contributed by the main effect of GCM (36%), followed by the main effects of the emission scenario (34%) and the ETp calculation formula (18%). The ETp projections are generally reliable and robust during the two projection periods. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Water Cycle and Climate Change (2nd Edition))

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22 pages, 12542 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Variation in Water Deficit and Its Association with Climate Indices in Weihe River Basin, China

by Wen Liu

Atmosphere 2024, 15(3), 339; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15030339 - 9 Mar 2024

Viewed by 1226

Abstract

Based on the 24 meteorological stations in the Weihe River Basin (WRB) from 1951 to 2013, as well as the runoff data from the mainstream of the Weihe River, the temporal and spatial variations in water balance in the WRB and its relationships with runoff, the drought index, and the climate index were analyzed. The results indicate that the water balance in the WRB has been in a deficit state over the past 63 years, showing a weak declining trend with a decreasing rate of −20.04 mm/decade. Water balance is closely related to potential evapotranspiration (ET₀) and precipitation (P). At the annual time scale, P plays a dominant role in water balance for 6–8 months in the WRB. The distribution of the water deficit (WD) in the WRB is uneven throughout the year, with the largest deficit occurring in June and the smallest values generally occurring in September. Furthermore, there are significant multi-scale correlations between water deficit and climate indices such as Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the WRB. In addition, water deficit is also influenced by human activities, such as irrigation, as well as climate factors and socio-economic factors. Studying the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of water deficit and its influencing factors in the WRB is helpful toward deeply understanding the supply and demand dynamics of water resources in the basin and providing a theoretical basis and scientific guidance for the rational utilization of water resources and the high-quality development of the basin. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Water Cycle and Climate Change (2nd Edition))

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15 pages, 3171 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Analysis of Precipitation Zone Forecasts and Examination of Numerical Forecasts for Two Heavy Rainfall Processes in June 2019 in Jiangxi, China 2019

by Yunxiang Liu, An Xiao, Fan Zhang, Luying Zhang and Luying Liao

Atmosphere 2024, 15(1), 137; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15010137 - 22 Jan 2024

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 1160

Abstract

Warm zone rainstorms and frontal rainstorms are two types of rainstorms that often occur in the rainy season in Jiangxi (located in the eastern part of China). The ability to correctly identify the type of rainstorms is important for accurate forecasting of rainstorms. Two heavy rainstorms took place in Jiangxi province. The first heavy rainstorm occurred from 20:00 BJT (Beijing Time) on 6 June to 20:00 BJT on 9 June (referred to as the “6.9” process) and another heavy rainstorm occurred from 20:00 BJT on 21 June to 20:00 BJT on 22 June (referred to as the “6.9” process), 2019. We analyzed the two rainstorms’ processes by using ground-based observation data, NCEP/FNL reanalysis data, ECMWF and CMA-SH9 numerical forecasting products. The results show that: “6.9” process is a warm area rainstorm, and a strong northeast cold vortex exists at 500 hPa geopotential height. The northwesterly flow behind the northeast cold vortex trough is stronger. The position of the northern edge of the subtropical high pressure is more south than that at “6.22” process. The rainstorm is in the precipitation zone of the warm temperature ridge over 925 hPa geopotential height, and with more convective character than “6.22” process. The process of “6.22” is a frontal rainstorm. The convective character of precipitation is weaker. The rainstorm precipitation zones are in a strong temperature front area at 925 hPa geopotential height and there is a tendency for vertical convection to develop into oblique upward convection in the late stage of the rainstorm. The precipitation location and intensity forecast by CMA-SH9 at the “6.9” process is better than that of ECMWF, while ECMWF’s prediction of the precipitation zone and weather condition of the “6.22” process is better. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Water Cycle and Climate Change (2nd Edition))

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14 pages, 11802 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Diagnostic Analysis of Diabatic Heating in an Extreme Rainfall Event in Shandong Province, China

by Yang Jiao, Meng Zhang, Yuqing Zhang and Yingjia Chu

Atmosphere 2024, 15(1), 66; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15010066 - 5 Jan 2024

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1171

Abstract

This study utilizes data from national ground meteorological observation stations in Shandong province, Fengyun-4 satellite data, and ERA5 reanalysis data. Through the calculation of atmospheric heat source changes, the role of diabatic heating in the occurrence and development of heavy rainfall is revealed. The widespread heavy-to-torrential rainfall event in Shandong province on 25 June 2018 is analyzed as a case study. It was found that a deep and robust southwest jet stream was the key system for the formation of this rainfall event. Satellite cloud images during the peak rainfall period showed vigorous development in the rainfall cloud region. During the concentrated rainfall period and when the low-altitude jet stream strengthened, there was mostly cold advection overhead at the observation station. The low-altitude jet stream transported moisture, increasing the humidity gradient, thus enhancing frontogenesis. The warm advection in the low-altitude jet stream was not the main energy supplier during heavy rainfall, and local temperature variations were the primary contributors to the thermodynamic conditions during the peak rainfall period. The rate of warming caused by the condensation and release of heat from water vapor significantly increased during the concentrated rainfall period. This warming effect played a heating role in the middle and lower layers, and the positive feedback from the latent heat release of water vapor condensation intensified the weather system affecting the rainfall, providing strong thermodynamic and dynamic conditions for heavy rainfall. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Water Cycle and Climate Change (2nd Edition))

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13 pages, 9210 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Are Near-Coastal Sea Levels Accelerating Faster Than Global during the Satellite Altimetry Era?

by Ying Qu, Svetlana Jevrejeva and Hindumathi Palanisamy

Atmosphere 2023, 14(10), 1573; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14101573 - 17 Oct 2023

Viewed by 1374

Abstract

Impact and risk assessments in coastal areas are informed by current and future sea level rise and acceleration, which demands a better understanding of drivers for regional sea level acceleration. In our study, we analyze the near-coastal sea level acceleration compared with global values during satellite altimetry (1993–2020) and discuss the potential drivers of regional sea level acceleration. We estimate regional sea level acceleration using high-resolution satellite altimetry sea surface height anomalies. Our study reveals a wide range of regional acceleration estimates, varying from −1.2 to 1.2 mm·yr⁻², which can be up to 20 times larger or smaller than the global mean sea level acceleration of 0.07 mm·yr⁻². Notably, sea level acceleration near the global coastline is calculated at 0.10 ± 0.03 mm·yr⁻², exceeding the global mean sea level acceleration by 40%. Regional patterns of sea level acceleration are in good agreement with acceleration patterns calculated from the steric sea level. However, the magnitude of acceleration is only partially explained by the changes in steric sea level, with increasing contributions from the non-steric component. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Water Cycle and Climate Change (2nd Edition))

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16 pages, 31820 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Persistent Meteorological Drought in the Yangtze River Basin during Summer–Autumn 2022: Relay Effects of Different Atmospheric Internal Variabilities

by Ruili Wang, Xiao Li, Hedi Ma, Xing Li, Junchao Wang and Anwei Lai

Atmosphere 2023, 14(9), 1402; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14091402 - 5 Sep 2023

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 1448

Abstract

During the summer–autumn (July–October, Jul–Oct) period of 2022, the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) of China experienced an extreme meteorological drought, with Jul–Oct containing the lowest precipitation in the YRB since 1979. The possible causes of this drought were analyzed in the present study. Surprisingly, unlike many previous drought events, we found that this event was not characterized by a consistent atmospheric circulation anomaly regime throughout the entire drought period. Instead, two distinct circulation patterns were responsible for the precipitation deficit in two different stages, i.e., July–August (Jul–Aug) and September–October (Sep–Oct). In Jul–Aug, the YRB precipitation deficit primarily resulted from an intensified and northward-shifted East Asian subtropical jet, which allowed for an extremely northwestward shift of western Pacific subtropical highs, leading to an anomalous descending motion. Such circulation patterns in Jul–Aug originated from the dispersion of Rossby waves upstream from central Asia and Europe. Meanwhile, in Sep–Oct, the YRB drought was primarily attributed to a low-level cyclonic anomaly over the western North Pacific, which was closely associated with frequent tropical cyclones traveling across this region. Observational analysis and a model ensemble hindcast suggest that atmospheric internal variabilities dominated the drought process, while the SSTA, particularly the La Niña event, played a limited role. Therefore, this long-lasting extreme YRB meteorological drought was largely driven by the relay effects of different atmospheric internal variabilities in Jul–Aug and Sep–Oct, respectively, which shows limited model predictability and poses a great challenge for operational climate predictions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Water Cycle and Climate Change (2nd Edition))

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18 pages, 8866 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Analysis of the Triggering and Maintenance Mechanisms of a Record-Breaking Warm-Sector Extreme-Rainfall Process in Front of an Upper-Level Trough in Tianjin, China

by Hong Chen, Yanchun Wang, Yinghua Wei, Nan Zhang, Xiaomeng Lin, Yang Yang and Yuqing Zhang

Atmosphere 2023, 14(5), 808; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14050808 - 28 Apr 2023

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1456

Abstract

A short-time rainstorm exceeding the extreme historical rainfall occurred in the Jinnan District of Tianjin, China, on 3 July 2022. Due to the concentrated time period of precipitation, it caused serious water accumulation in the Jinnan District. The purpose of this paper is to study the weather mechanism of this extreme rainstorm in the Jinan District of Tianjin. By analyzing the fine observation facts, we can obtain the mesoscale weather characteristics and environmental conditions of the process. The results provide a reference for similar weather forecasting and warning in the future. Based on the 1 min interval precipitation observation data, the ERA5 reanalysis data, the CINRAD-SA radar reflectivity data of Tanggu, the cloud-top brightness temperature data of the Fengyun-4A satellite, and the Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System data, we comprehensively analyzed a record-breaking extreme rainfall process in Tianjin on 3 July 2022. The results show that the extreme rainfall process presents prominent mesoscale weather characteristics, with high precipitation intensity in a short-term period. This process is influenced by multi-scale weather systems, including the 500 hPa upper-level trough and the long-distance water vapor transport by Typhoon Chaba. The rainstorm event is caused by the combined actions of cold pool outflow produced by the upstream precipitation, the easterly disturbance in the boundary layer, the mesoscale temperature front, and the ground convergence line. Specifically, the ground convergence line is formed by the northerly wind of the cold pool outflow and the warm and moist southerly airflow from the ocean, and the temperature front is caused by the horizontal thermal difference of the underlying surface. Both the ground convergence line and temperature front contribute considerably to the triggering of mesoscale convection. The mesoscale secondary circulation is formed in the meridional direction by the meso-γ-scale convergence and its interaction with strong velocity in front of the trough, contributing to the development and maintenance of vertical motion in the Jinnan region of Tianjin and thereby leading to the occurrence and development of this extreme heavy rainfall process. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Water Cycle and Climate Change (2nd Edition))

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17 pages, 3436 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Effects of Landscape Patterns on Atmospheric Particulate Matter Concentrations in Fujian Province, China

by Fengyi Lin and Xingwei Chen

Atmosphere 2023, 14(5), 787; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14050787 - 26 Apr 2023

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 1361

Abstract

Based on the observation data from 37 national ambient air automatic monitoring stations and the land use/cover data in Fujian Province, the effects of land use/cover on the annual and seasonal variations in the air quality index (AQI), PM_2.5 concentration and PM₁₀ concentration are analyzed. In addition, buffer zones with different radii are established to calculate landscape pattern metrics and the influences of landscape patterns on the AQI, PM_2.5 concentration and PM₁₀ concentration at different scales are discussed. The results show that land use/cover types have remarkable impacts on the variations in the atmospheric particulate matter concentrations. The AQI and PM₁₀ concentration are the highest for construction land, and the PM_2.5 concentration is the highest for cultivated land. The seasonal variations in all air pollutant concentrations show similar characteristics, i.e., high in spring and winter and low in summer and autumn. Different landscape metrics have diverse effects on atmospheric particulate matter concentrations at different scales. In the buffer zone with a 5000 m radius, the patch number and patch density of forest land are positively correlated with the PM_2.5 concentration, while the edge density of construction land has a negative correlation with it, indicating that landscape fragmentation affects the PM_2.5 concentration. More fragmented forest land has a weaker effect on the reduction in the PM_2.5 concentration, and more fragmented construction land has a weaker effect on the increase in the PM_2.5 concentration. Moreover, the seasonal variations in the atmospheric particulate matter concentrations are different under different land use/cover types. Except for autumn, the AQI and PM_2.5 concentration are most noticeably affected by forest land in all seasons, showing negative correlations. In autumn, the impacts of cultivated land on the AQI and PM_2.5 concentration are more pronounced. The PM₁₀ concentration is substantially affected by forest land in spring and summer and is markedly influenced by construction land in autumn and winter. The analysis of the landscape metrics of forest land and construction land at different scales indicates that the optimal scale is 5000 m for studying the annual average of the AQI and PM₁₀ concentration and is 3000 m for investigating the annual average of the PM_2.5 concentration. The optimal scales to research the seasonal variations in the AQI, PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ concentrations are 4000–5000 m for forest land and construction land, while the optimal scale is 1000 m for cultivated land to research the AQI and PM_2.5 in autumn. This study can provide a scientific basis for the optimization of land use/cover and landscape patterns in Fujian Province, the planning and management of green space and the selection of research scales in the future. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Water Cycle and Climate Change (2nd Edition))

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