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3 pages, 164 KiB

Open AccessEditorial

Climate Change, Climatic Extremes, and Human Societies in the Past

by Harry F. Lee

Atmosphere 2020, 11(7), 767; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11070767 - 20 Jul 2020

Viewed by 2318

Abstract

More people appreciate the importance of global sustainability [...] Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Climatic Extremes, and Human Societies in the Past)

Research

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12 pages, 3163 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Spatial–Temporal Variation of Cropping Patterns in Relation to Climate Change in Neolithic China

by Ruo Li, Feiya Lv, Liu Yang, Fengwen Liu, Ruiliang Liu and Guanghui Dong

Atmosphere 2020, 11(7), 677; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11070677 - 27 Jun 2020

Cited by 18 | Viewed by 4045

Abstract

The Neolithic period witnessed the start and spread of agriculture across Eurasia, as well as the beginning of important climate changes which would take place over millennia. Nevertheless, it remains rather unclear in what ways local societies chose to respond to these considerable [...] Read more.

The Neolithic period witnessed the start and spread of agriculture across Eurasia, as well as the beginning of important climate changes which would take place over millennia. Nevertheless, it remains rather unclear in what ways local societies chose to respond to these considerable changes in both the shorter and longer term. Crops such as rice and millet were domesticated in the Yangtze River and the Yellow River valleys in China during the early Holocene. Paleoclimate studies suggest that the pattern of precipitation in these two areas was distinctly different. This paper reviews updated archaeobotanical evidence from Neolithic sites in China. Comparing these results to the regional high-resolution paleoclimate records enables us to better understand the development of rice and millet and its relation to climate change. This comparison shows that rice was mainly cultivated in the Yangtze River valley and its southern margin, whereas millet cultivation occurred in the northern area of China during 9000–7000 BP. Both millet and rice-based agriculture became intensified and expanded during 7000–5000 BP. In the following period of 5000–4000 BP, rice agriculture continued to expand within the Yangtze River valley and millet cultivation moved gradually westwards. Meanwhile, mixed agriculture based on both millet and rice developed along the boundary between north and south. From 9000–7000 BP, China maintained hunting activities. Subsequently, from 7000–6000 BP, changes in vegetation and landscape triggered by climate change played an essential role in the development of agriculture. Precipitation became an important factor in forming the distinct regional patterns of Chinese agriculture in 6000–4000 BP. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Climatic Extremes, and Human Societies in the Past)

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16 pages, 1715 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Application of a Decision Tree and Stochastic Forest Model in Summer Precipitation Prediction in Chongqing

by Bo Xiang, Chunfen Zeng, Xinning Dong and Jiayue Wang

Atmosphere 2020, 11(5), 508; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11050508 - 14 May 2020

Cited by 22 | Viewed by 4276

Abstract

Meteorological disasters are the result of the interaction of multiple factors and multiple systems. In order to improve the accuracy of prediction, it is necessary not only to consider the characteristics and cycles of each subsystem, but also to study the interaction of [...] Read more.

Meteorological disasters are the result of the interaction of multiple factors and multiple systems. In order to improve the accuracy of prediction, it is necessary not only to consider the characteristics and cycles of each subsystem, but also to study the interaction of all systems. Based on the summer precipitation data and 130 circulation indexes of 34 national meteorological observation stations in Chongqing from 1961 to 2010, the prediction model of Chongqing summer precipitation was established based on the decision tree and the stochastic forest algorithm based on machine learning, and the prediction test of 2011–2018 was carried out independently by the model. Compared with the results of the single-factor prediction model, the trend consistency rate increased by 37.5% and 12.5% respectively. In addition, when using the random forest model to predict summer precipitation in Chongqing from 2014 to 2018, the 5-year average Ps, Cc and PC scores were 84.6, 0.27 and 67.1, respectively, which were significantly improved compared with 72.4, −0.12 and 52.9 of the current climate forecasting methods, and the forecast quality of the random forest was relatively stable. The multi-system collaborative impact model based on decision tree and random forest algorithm can achieve high accuracy and stability. Thus, this method can not only be an effective means for the diagnosis and prediction of climate causes, but also has a good theoretical and practical value for the prediction of extreme disasters. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Climatic Extremes, and Human Societies in the Past)

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14 pages, 1936 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Isotopic Results Reveal Possible Links between Diet and Social Status in Late Shang Dynasty (ca. 1250–1046 BC) Tombs at Xiaohucun, China

by Ning Wang, Lianmin Jia, Yi Si and Xin Jia

Atmosphere 2020, 11(5), 451; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11050451 - 29 Apr 2020

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 3409

Abstract

Here, we present evidence of possible links between diet and social status using carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios at the site of Xiaohucun in the Central Plains, China. This pilot study from a rescue excavation yielded humans (n = 12) identified to [...] Read more.

Here, we present evidence of possible links between diet and social status using carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios at the site of Xiaohucun in the Central Plains, China. This pilot study from a rescue excavation yielded humans (n = 12) identified to the late Shang Dynasty (ca. 1250–1046 BC), which was a warm climatic period. The population consumed a predominately C₄ diet (millets) and no difference was observed between the δ¹³C results of individuals (n = 7) buried with (−9.1 ± 2.8‰) and without (n = 5) bronze vessels (−8.2 ± 0.7‰). However, individuals buried with bronze vessels (10.3±1.6‰) were found to have significantly higher δ¹⁵N values (one-way ANOVA; p = 0.015) compared to individuals buried without bronze vessels (8.0 ± 0.9‰), providing evidence that possible elite members consumed more animal protein (dog, pig, cow, sheep/goat). Isotopic results were also examined for social status in relation to the number of burial coffins that an individual had: double (n = 6), single (n = 3), or no coffin (n = 3). No difference was found in the δ¹³C values, but variations were observed in the δ¹⁵N values: double coffin (10.2 ± 1.7‰) > single coffin (8.8 ± 1.8‰) > no coffin (8.0 ± 1.3‰), again possibly showing increased animal protein consumption linked to social status. Finally, isotopic results and status were studied by looking at the number of coffins and tomb size. Again, no correlation was observed for the δ¹³C results, but a strong linear correlation (R² = 0.85) was observed for the δ¹⁵N values of the individuals buried in two coffins vs. tomb size. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Climatic Extremes, and Human Societies in the Past)

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18 pages, 9439 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Regional Interactions in Social Responses to Extreme Climate Events: A Case Study of the North China Famine of 1876–1879

by Xianshuai Zhai, Xiuqi Fang and Yun Su

Atmosphere 2020, 11(4), 393; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040393 - 16 Apr 2020

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 3882

Abstract

The North China Famine of 1876–1879, known in Chinese as the Dingwu qihuang (丁戊奇荒), is a famous case of drought-induced famine in Chinese history. The purpose of this paper is to provide empirical and historical evidence for understanding the impacts of extreme climate [...] Read more.

The North China Famine of 1876–1879, known in Chinese as the Dingwu qihuang (丁戊奇荒), is a famous case of drought-induced famine in Chinese history. The purpose of this paper is to provide empirical and historical evidence for understanding the impacts of extreme climate events and major disasters and the mechanisms of adaptation. From the aspects of famine-related migration and the allocation of relief money and grain, the regional interactions in social responses to extreme climate events were analyzed. This paper collected 186 records from historical documents. Regarding the regions as the nodes and the relationships between regions as the links, the spatial patterns of famine-related migration and the allocation of money and grain from 1877 to 1878 were rebuilt. The results show that, firstly, famine-related migration appeared to be spontaneous and short-distanced, with the flow mainly spreading to the surrounding areas and towns. Secondly, as a state administrative action, the relief money and grain from the non-disaster areas were distributed to the disaster areas. However, the distribution of relief grain affected the equilibrium of the food market in non-disaster areas, which led to fluctuations in food prices. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Climatic Extremes, and Human Societies in the Past)

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17 pages, 3036 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Examining the Direct and Indirect Effects of Climatic Variables on Plague Dynamics

by Ricci P.H. Yue and Harry F. Lee

Atmosphere 2020, 11(4), 388; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040388 - 15 Apr 2020

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 2847

Abstract

Climate change can influence infectious disease dynamics both directly, by affecting the disease ecology, and indirectly, through altering economic systems. However, despite that climate-driven human plague dynamics have been extensively studied in recent years, little is known about the relative importance of the [...] Read more.

Climate change can influence infectious disease dynamics both directly, by affecting the disease ecology, and indirectly, through altering economic systems. However, despite that climate-driven human plague dynamics have been extensively studied in recent years, little is known about the relative importance of the direct and indirect effects of climate change on plague outbreak. By using Structural Equation Modeling, we estimated the direct influence of climate change on human plague dynamics and the impact of climate-driven economic change on human plague outbreak. After studying human plague outbreak in Europe during AD1347–1760, we detected no direct climatic effect on plague dynamics; instead, all of the climatic impacts on plague dynamics were indirect, and were operationalized via economic changes. Through a series of sensitivity checks, we further proved that temperature-induced economic changes drove plague dynamics during cold and wet periods, while precipitation-induced economic changes drove plague dynamics during the cold periods. Our results suggest that we should not dismiss the role of economic systems when examining how climate change altered plague dynamics in human history. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Climatic Extremes, and Human Societies in the Past)

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16 pages, 2769 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Climate Change and the Pattern of the Hot Spots of War in Ancient China

by Shengda Zhang, David Dian Zhang and Jinbao Li

Atmosphere 2020, 11(4), 378; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040378 - 13 Apr 2020

Cited by 7 | Viewed by 3669

Abstract

Quantitative research on climate change and war hot spots throughout history is lacking. In this study, the spatial distribution and dynamic process of war hot spots under different climatic phases in imperial China (1–1911 CE) are revealed using Emerging Hot Spot Analysis (EHSA), [...] Read more.

Quantitative research on climate change and war hot spots throughout history is lacking. In this study, the spatial distribution and dynamic process of war hot spots under different climatic phases in imperial China (1–1911 CE) are revealed using Emerging Hot Spot Analysis (EHSA), based on the Global Moran’s Index for testing the degree of spatial autocorrelation or dependency. The results show that: (1) Battles were significantly clustered regardless of any climatic mode or war category. (2) Hot spots for all war were generally located in the Loess Plateau and the North China Plain during warm and wet periods, but in the Central Plain, the Jianghuai region, and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River/Yangtze River Delta during cold and dry conditions. (3) Hot spots for agri-nomadic conflict have similar patterns as those for all war, whereas rebellion hot spots expanded outward during warm and wet intervals yet contracted inward during cold and dry stages. These findings, by providing insightful evidence into the spatiotemporal patterns of war under the movements of climatic-ecological zones and geopolitical variations in ancient China, can be a starting point for future exploration of the long-term relationship between climate change and social security. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Climatic Extremes, and Human Societies in the Past)

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17 pages, 3798 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Contribution Rate of Driving Factors and Their Interactions to Temperature in the Yangtze River Delta Region

by Cheng Zhou, Nina Zhu, Jianhua Xu and Dongyang Yang

Atmosphere 2020, 11(1), 32; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11010032 - 27 Dec 2019

Cited by 9 | Viewed by 2456

Abstract

Complex temperature processes are the coupling results of natural and human processes, but few studies focused on the interactive effects between natural and human systems. Based on the dataset for temperature during the period of 1980–2012, we analyzed the complexity of temperature by [...] Read more.

Complex temperature processes are the coupling results of natural and human processes, but few studies focused on the interactive effects between natural and human systems. Based on the dataset for temperature during the period of 1980–2012, we analyzed the complexity of temperature by using the Correlation Dimension (CD) method. Then, we used the Geogdetector method to examine the effects of factors and their interactions on the temperature process in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD). The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the temperature rose 1.53 °C; and, among the dense areas of population and urban, the temperature rose the fastest. (2) The temperature process was more complicated in the sparse areas of population and urban than in the dense areas of population and urban. (3) The complexity of temperature dynamics increased along with the increase of temporal scale. To describe the temperature dynamic, at least two independent variables were needed at a daily scale, but at least three independent variables were needed at seasonal and annual scales. (4) Each driving factor did not work alone, but interacted with each other and had an enhanced effect on temperature. In addition, the interaction between economic activity and urban density had the largest influence on temperature. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Climatic Extremes, and Human Societies in the Past)

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14 pages, 2824 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Coupling of Soil Moisture and Air Temperature from Multiyear Data During 1980–2013 over China

by Qing Yuan, Guojie Wang, Chenxia Zhu, Dan Lou, Daniel Fiifi Tawia Hagan, Xiaowen Ma and Mingyue Zhan

Atmosphere 2020, 11(1), 25; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11010025 - 26 Dec 2019

Cited by 15 | Viewed by 3654

Abstract

Soil moisture is an important parameter in land surface processes, which can control the surface energy and water budgets and thus affect the air temperature. Studying the coupling between soil moisture and air temperature is of vital importance for forecasting climate change. This [...] Read more.

Soil moisture is an important parameter in land surface processes, which can control the surface energy and water budgets and thus affect the air temperature. Studying the coupling between soil moisture and air temperature is of vital importance for forecasting climate change. This study evaluates this coupling over China from 1980–2013 by using an energy-based diagnostic method, which represents the momentum, heat, and water conservation equations in the atmosphere, while the contributions of soil moisture are treated as external forcing. The results showed that the soil moisture–temperature coupling is strongest in the transitional climate zones between wet and dry climates, which here includes Northeast China and part of the Tibetan Plateau from a viewpoint of annual average. Furthermore, the soil moisture–temperature coupling was found to be stronger in spring than in the other seasons over China, and over different typical climatic zones, it also varied greatly in different seasons. We conducted two case studies (the heatwaves of 2013 in Southeast China and 2009 in North China) to understand the impact of soil moisture–temperature coupling during heatwaves. The results indicated that over areas with soil moisture deficit and temperature anomalies, the coupling strength intensified. This suggests that soil moisture deficits could lead to enhanced heat anomalies, and thus, result in enhanced soil moisture coupling with temperature. This demonstrates the importance of soil moisture and the need to thoroughly study it and its role within the land–atmosphere interaction and the climate on the whole. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Climatic Extremes, and Human Societies in the Past)

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