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The Importance of Long Climate Records

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A special issue of Climate (ISSN 2225-1154).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (30 April 2024) | Viewed by 27852

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Prof. Dr. Dario Camuffo

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National Research Council of Italy Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Padua, Italy
Interests: climate change; indoor and outdoor microclimate; cultural heritage
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Dear Colleagues,

It is right to celebrate past weather records as they are vital in helping us to identify aspects of climate change. Long records help us to test hypotheses concerning climate change where the pattern of change is slow and subtle. They allow us to test new hypotheses, when it is unknown when the weather readings began. Additionally, they provide warnings of unwelcome changes in Earth’s environment, either of local or global significance. However, in the early instrumental period, records were scarce and taken using non-standard instruments and protocols. Methods, observing times and exposures were different, and in most cases metadata are missing. Some international meteorological networks helped researchers to adopt uniform practices and instruments. A turning point was reached in 1873, when the International Meteorological Committee was established, to coordinate observing methods and protocols. In 1950, this Committee was substituted by the World Meteorological Organization. The problem is to find data and metadata, and then to recover, interpret and transform the early units, as well as correct and homogenize the early series.

The Special Issue will provide examples of climate change identification across a wide spectrum of weather observations, from temperature, precipitation and sunshine, to atmospheric pressure, wind, snow and ice, visibility and fog. The Special Issue will also encourage the discussion of metadata, to show that each weather station needs to have strong accompanying records if the record is to prove useful in the years and decades to come. Where significant changes have occurred, and typically for all data taken before the standardization started in 1873 when the International Meteorological Committee was founded, homogenization techniques must be employed. Examples of data rescue will hopefully be included.

Climate change;
Metadata;
Early instruments and screens;
Early observation protocols;
Transformation from early units and time references (e.g., day starting from twilight, or from the apparent solar time (AST) to the coordinated universal time (UTC));
Homogenization.

Related Reference:

Oxford weather and climate since 1767. Stephen Burt and Tim Burt, 2019. Oxford University Press. 513 pp. Available online: https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198834632.001.0001

Durham weather and climate since 1841. Stephen Burt and Tim Burt, 2022. Oxford University Press. 580 pp. Available online: https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198870517.001.0001

Improved Understanding of Past Climatic Variability from Early Daily European Instrumental Sources. Dario Camuffo and Phil Jones. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 392 pp. Available online: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1014902904197

Camuffo, D. Microclimate for Cultural Heritage – Measurement, Risk Assessment, Conservation, Restoration and Maintenance of Indoor and Outdoor Monuments, 2019. Third Edition. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp 582. Available online: https://doi.org/10.1016/C2017-0-02191-2

Camuffo, D. Historical documents as proxy data in Venice and its marine environment. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science, 2022. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp.1-47. Available online: https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.875

Prof. Dr. Dario Camuffo
Guest Editor

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Keywords

long weather records
climate change
metadata
homogenization
case studies from stations with century-scale records
recovery of early instrumental observations (e.g., 17th, 18th and first half of the 19th century)
early instruments, protocols, calibrations and units
instrumental data rescue

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The Importance of Long Climate Records (Second Edition) in Climate

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18 pages, 10659 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Homogenization of the Long Instrumental Daily-Temperature Series in Padua, Italy (1725–2023)

by Claudio Stefanini, Francesca Becherini, Antonio della Valle and Dario Camuffo

Climate 2024, 12(6), 86; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12060086 - 7 Jun 2024

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1374

Abstract

The Padua temperature series is one of the longest in the world, as daily observations started in 1725 and have continued almost unbroken to the present. Previous works recovered readings from the original logs, and digitalized and corrected observations from errors due to instruments, calibrations, sampling times and exposure. However, the series underwent some changes (location, elevation, observing protocols, and different averaging methods) that affected the homogeneity between sub-series. The aim of this work is to produce a homogenized temperature series for Padua, starting from the results of previous works, and connecting all the periods available. The homogenization of the observations has been carried out with respect to the modern era. A newly released paleo-reanalysis dataset, ModE-RA, is exploited to connect the most ancient data to the recent ones. In particular, the following has been carried out: the 1774–2023 daily mean temperature has been homogenized to the modern data; for the first time, the daily values of 1765–1773 have been merged and homogenized; and the daily observations of the 1725–1764 period have been connected and homogenized to the rest of the series. Snowfall observations, extracted from the same logs from which the temperatures were retrieved, help to verify the robustness of the homogenization procedure by looking at the temperature frequency distribution on snowy days, before and after the correction. The possibility of adding new measurements with no need to apply transformations or homogenization procedures makes it very easy to update the time series and make it immediately available for climate change analysis. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Importance of Long Climate Records)

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22 pages, 13336 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Perception and Reality: How the Depths of the High Waters in Venice Apparently Change with the Reference System

by Dario Camuffo

Climate 2024, 12(5), 62; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12050062 - 1 May 2024

Viewed by 1338

Abstract

Over the centuries, the depths of the most severe storm surges that have flooded Venice have been measured using different reference frames, i.e., related to the algae belt (CM), mean sea level (MSL), local land (ZMPS), large-scale leveling (IGM), and satellite altimetry (SA). Some reference frames, i.e., IGM and SA, are absolute, while the others are relative and represent two different physical points of view, i.e., CM and MSL refer to the sea that is rising and ZMPS refers to the land that is subsiding. The perceptions derived from the different systems are contradictory. This paper discusses and compares surges from 1821 to 2021 measured with these frames, also including the commemorative plaques that report the flood depths on walls in Venice. The paper explains the consequences of a change in frame and zero reference, and it transforms the flooding depths from the original systems to make them homogeneous. The severity of flooding changes in terms of rating with the choice of frame. In the 19th century, five storm surges exceeded the famous level of 1966 and, if they were to recur today or in the future, the sea level rise and the local land subsidence that have occurred in the meantime would greatly exacerbate the situation. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Importance of Long Climate Records)

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18 pages, 6582 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Unlocking Weather Observations at Puerto Madryn-Patagonia, Argentina, 1902–1915

by Susan Gabriela Lakkis, Pablo O. Canziani and Adrián E. Yuchechen

Climate 2024, 12(4), 52; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12040052 - 9 Apr 2024

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1609

Abstract

The recovery of early records of maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures; pressure; and relative humidity measurements in Puerto Madryn for the period 1902–1915 is presented. A careful evaluation of the quality of the data was performed using internal coherence, tolerance, and temporal consistency tests. The monthly mean series of all the variables, constructed from daily raw data, were subject to several homogeneity tests, and only discontinuities in pressure and relative humidity were found. The homogenized monthly mean series were compared with the Twentieth Century Reanalysis series in annual and seasonal time steps. In addition, the trends of each variable were assessed using the Mann–Kendall procedure, and correlations between relative humidity and the other variables were examined. The results show a remarkably good agreement between the temperature measurements and reanalysis values with a Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.94. The raw data for minimum and maximum temperatures represent a very good upper and lower bound for the mean temperature values of both observational and reanalysis data. Agreement was found to be lower for relative humidity and pressure with the correlation coefficients being close to 0.6 in both cases. No trends were found for the variables. The correlation analysis of the humidity measurements with the other variables shows an inverse dependence of the temperatures and no relatedness with the pressure values. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Importance of Long Climate Records)

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26 pages, 7472 KiB

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Unlocking Weather Observations at the End of the World: Late-XIX and Early-XX Century Monthly Mean Temperature Climatology for Southern Patagonia

by Pablo O. Canziani, S. Gabriela Lakkis, Adrián E. Yuchechen and Oscar Bonfilli

Climate 2024, 12(4), 51; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12040051 - 9 Apr 2024

Viewed by 1700

Abstract

A climate analysis of the monthly mean temperatures of Southern Patagonia during the late-XIXth and early-XXth centuries was carried out as part of the international data rescue Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) program partnership in Argentina, together with other data sources with regional and global records. The data from these diverse sources were combined to carry out a study in the coastal region of Patagonia, including Tierra del Fuego, between 42° S and 55° S for 11 locations. Furthermore, HadSST monthly/seasonal fields during the period 1880–1920 were also used. Both mean monthly and seasonal temperature values and timeseries variability were considered. Their analysis shows consistent behavior within the study region and compared to Southern Hemisphere mean results, which are characterized by a warm late-XIX century and a cooler early-XX century. This is also in agreement with SST variability along the coasts of Patagonia and hemispheric records. A comparison with present-day observations, where available, also yields consistent behavior. Low-frequency variability, i.e., in periods longer than 3 years, during the study period is consistent with present variability. Trend estimates at Trelew and Rio Gallegos for the period 1901–2020 yield significant trends, consistent with hemispheric warming at their latitudes. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Importance of Long Climate Records)

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29 pages, 14175 KiB

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The Importance and Scientific Value of Long Weather and Climate Records; Examples of Historical Marine Data Efforts across the Globe

by Jürg Luterbacher, Rob Allan, Clive Wilkinson, Ed Hawkins, Praveen Teleti, Andrew Lorrey, Stefan Brönnimann, Peer Hechler, Kondylia Velikou and Elena Xoplaki

Climate 2024, 12(3), 39; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12030039 - 7 Mar 2024

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2781

Abstract

The rescue, digitization, quality control, preservation, and utilization of long and high quality meteorological and climate records, particularly related to historical marine data, are crucial for advancing our understanding of the Earth’s climate system. In combination with land and air measurements, historical marine records serve as foundational pillars in linking present and past weather and climate information, offering essential insights into natural climate variability, extreme events in marine areas, baseline data for assessing current changes, and inputs for enhancing predictive climate models and reanalyses. This paper provides an overview of rescue activities covering marine weather data over the past centuries and presents and highlights several ongoing projects across the world and how the data are used in an integrative and international framework. Current and future continuous efforts in data rescue, digitization, quality control, and the development of temporally high-resolution meteorological and climatological observations from oceans, will greatly help to further complete our understanding and knowledge of the Earth’s climate system, including extremes, as well as improve the quality of reanalysis. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Importance of Long Climate Records)

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20 pages, 3315 KiB

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Reassessing and Extending the Composite Rainfall Record of Manchester, Northwest England: 1786–Present

by Neil Macdonald and Robert Dietz

Climate 2024, 12(2), 21; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12020021 - 2 Feb 2024

Viewed by 2189

Abstract

A monthly composite rainfall record for the period 1786–present representative of Manchester, northwest England is presented. The 235-year record ranks as the second-longest instrumental rainfall record available for northern England, and the fifth-longest for the UK, and contributes to a growing network of long homogenous rainfall series. A composite record is constructed, extended, and homogenised, and the record is analysed in terms of annual and seasonal variability, with a focus on extreme wet/dry events. Three primary meteorological stations in Manchester, located within 2 km of one another, form the basis of the reconstruction, with other records identified for infilling and extension based on their longevity, continuity, and proximity to the primary stations. A linear regression analysis is applied to produce a continuous record, and adjustment factors are applied to ensure homogeneity. Record homogeneity is assessed via cross-comparison with long-term records from the region (Carlisle, Chatsworth House and HadNWEP), and the methods are applied to assess relative homogeneity include the double-mass curve and Standard Normal Homogeneity tests. The Manchester record is deemed to be homogenous overall but includes two periods of increased uncertainty: 1786–1819, comprising the earliest observations and greatest number of different stations, and 1883–1911, which encompasses multi-year and multi-decadal drought events of (1883–1885 and 1890–1910) as identified by other long-term meteorological studies. The analysis of the entire record reflects long-term rainfall variability with an increasing, although not significant, trend in annual rainfall observed. Seasonally, a significant increase in winter rainfall is exhibited, in keeping with patterns observed in other regional studies. Seasonal rainfall totals are found to be highly variable at the decadal timescale. Several well-documented extreme wet (e.g., autumn 2000) and dry (e.g., summer 1976) seasons are identified, including historic events (e.g., the floods of summer 1872 and drought of summer 1887) from the less-well documented eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Importance of Long Climate Records)

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18 pages, 10007 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Climatology of Synoptic Non-Gaussian Meteorological Anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere during 1979–2018

by Sergey Loginov, Evgeniia Moraru, Elena Kharyutkina and Ivan Sudakow

Climate 2024, 12(1), 8; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12010008 - 12 Jan 2024

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1950

Abstract

The analysis of spatial and temporal variability in the number of non-Gaussian extreme anomalies of climatic parameters was carried out for both the initial time series and synoptic variability in the troposphere of the Northern Hemisphere over the period 1979–2018, based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data. There are predominantly three types of empirical distribution densities at 850 hPa, each characterizing the processes of advective and convective heat transfer. At the beginning of the 21st century, compared to the end of the 20th century, there was an increase in the number of anomalies in vertical wind speed and specific humidity for the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, there is an increase in the number of zonal wind speed anomalies in the low and middle latitudes. Regions with the maximum number of anomalies are primarily located over the continents, while for vertical wind speed anomalies, they are predominantly over the oceans. The application of R/S analysis and multifractal analysis has established that the identified tendencies (which are persistent processes) will continue in the identified regions. The time series of non-Gaussian anomalies (both initial and synoptic scales) exhibit a long-term memory of approximately four years, and synoptic extreme anomalies were found to be more predictable. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Importance of Long Climate Records)

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9 pages, 3534 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Early Meteorological Observations in Almada (Portugal) for the Period 1788–1813 by Medical Doctors

by Nieves Bravo-Paredes, María Cruz Gallego, Ricardo M. Trigo and José Manuel Vaquero

Climate 2023, 11(9), 193; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11090193 - 15 Sep 2023

Viewed by 1641

Abstract

Early meteorological observations have been found for the period 1788–1813 in a collection of historical documents entitled “Medical and meteorological observation books” (Livros de observações médicas e meteorológicas) that is preserved nowadays in the Municipal Historical Archive of Almada. Almada is a Portuguese city located on the southern bank of the Tagus River, near the mouth of the river, in front of the capital city of Lisbon, which is located on the northern bank. In this work, more than 5000 meteorological readings for the period 1788–1813 have been recovered and analyzed. Daily values have been preserved for the period 1788–1789. However, only monthly values have stood the test of time for the period 1792–1813. The meteorological variables recovered are temperature, pressure, wind direction and the state of the sky. A quality control was carried out to find possible errors, either in the original data or in the digitization process. Unfortunately, there is no information in the metadata about the instruments or the observational methodology. Pressure and temperature data from modern and reanalysis datasets were used as references to study the agreement between these datasets and the Almada dataset. Daily pressure and temperature values from the Almada dataset were used to study, in particular, the meteorological conditions of the winter of 1788/1789 in Almada because this season was one of the coldest in the last 300 years in Central Europe. The complete dataset of early meteorological observations in Almada is freely available to the scientific community. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Importance of Long Climate Records)

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36 pages, 19340 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Instrumental and Observational Problems of the Earliest Temperature Records in Italy: A Methodology for Data Recovery and Correction

by Dario Camuffo, Antonio della Valle and Francesca Becherini

Climate 2023, 11(9), 178; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11090178 - 27 Aug 2023

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2402

Abstract

A distinction is made between data rescue (i.e., copying, digitizing, and archiving) and data recovery that implies deciphering, interpreting, and transforming early instrumental readings and their metadata to obtain high-quality datasets in modern units. This requires a multidisciplinary approach that includes: palaeography and knowledge of Latin and other languages to read the handwritten logs and additional documents; history of science to interpret the original text, data, and metadata within the cultural frame of the 17th, 18th, and early 19th centuries; physics and technology to recognize bias of early instruments or calibrations, or to correct for observational bias; and astronomy to calculate and transform the original time in canonical hours that started from twilight. The liquid-in-glass thermometer was invented in 1641 and the earliest temperature records started in 1654. Since then, different types of thermometers have been invented, based on the thermal expansion of air or selected thermometric liquids with deviation from linearity. Reference points, thermometric scales, and calibration methodologies were not comparable, and not always adequately described. Thermometers had various locations and exposures, e.g., indoor, outdoor, on windows, gardens or roofs, facing different directions. Readings were made only one or a few times a day, not necessarily respecting a precise time schedule: this bias is analysed for the most popular combinations of reading times. The time was based on sundials and local Sun, but the hours were counted starting from twilight. In 1789–1790, Italy changed system and all cities counted hours from their lower culmination (i.e., local midnight), so that every city had its local time; in 1866, all the Italian cities followed the local time of Rome; in 1893, the whole of Italy adopted the present-day system, based on the Coordinated Universal Time and the time zones. In 1873, when the International Meteorological Committee (IMC) was founded, later transformed into the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a standardization of instruments and observational protocols was established, and all data became fully comparable. In dealing with the early instrumental period, from 1654 to 1873, the comparison, correction, and homogenization of records is quite difficult, mainly because of the scarcity or even absence of metadata. This paper deals with this confused situation, discussing the main problems, but also the methodologies to recognize missing metadata, distinguish indoor from outdoor readings, correct and transform early datasets in unknown or arbitrary units into modern units, and, finally, in which cases it is possible to reach the quality level required by the WMO. The aim is to explain the methodology needed to recover early instrumental records, i.e., the operations that should be performed to decipher, interpret, correct, and transform the original raw data into a high-quality dataset of temperature, usable for climate studies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Importance of Long Climate Records)

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18 pages, 3470 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Trends in Extreme Precipitation Indices in Northwest Ethiopia: Comparative Analysis Using the Mann–Kendall and Innovative Trend Analysis Methods

by Aimro Likinaw, Arragaw Alemayehu and Woldeamlak Bewket

Climate 2023, 11(8), 164; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11080164 - 31 Jul 2023

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 2730

Abstract

This study analyzed long-term extreme precipitation indices using 4 × 4 km gridded data obtained from the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia between 1981 and 2018. The study examined trends in extreme precipitation over three districts (Lay Gayint, Tach Gayint, and Simada) in the northwestern highlands of Ethiopia. Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) and Mann–Kendall (MK) trend tests were used to study extreme precipitation trends. Based on the ITA result, the calculated values of nine indices (90% of the analyzed indices) showed significant increasing trends (p < 0.01) in Lay Gayint. In Tach Gayint, 70% (seven indices) showed significantly increasing trends at p < 0.01. On the other hand, 60% of the extreme indices showed significant downward trends (p < 0.01) in Simada. The MK test revealed that 30% of the extreme indices had significantly increasing trends (p < 0.01) in Lay Gayint. In Tach Gayint, 30% of the extreme indices showed significant increasing trends at p < 0.05, while 10% of the extreme indices exhibited significant increasing trends at p < 0.01. In Simada, 20% of the extreme indices showed significant increasing trends at p < 0.05. Overall, the results showed that the ITA method can identify a variety of significant trends that the MK test misses. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Importance of Long Climate Records)

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14 pages, 2934 KiB

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Early Humidity Measurements by Louis Morin in Paris between 1701 and 1711—Data and Metadata

by Thomas Pliemon, Ulrich Foelsche, Christian Rohr and Christian Pfister

Climate 2023, 11(7), 156; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11070156 - 23 Jul 2023

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1785

Abstract

This paper discusses what is, to our knowledge, the oldest subdaily measurement series of humidity taken over several years. Louis Morin performed the measurements in Paris, three times a day, between May 1701 and June 1711. A correlation analysis of Morin’s humidity measurements with various meteorological variables yields results comparable to those of a parallel analysis of the relative humidity measurements of the E-OBS data: the Spearman correlation coefficient between the humidity and the daily minimum temperature is −0.43 (p < 0.01); with the mean temperature, it is −0.54 (p < 0.01); with the maximum temperature, it is −0.59 (p < 0.01); with the diurnal temperature range, it is −0.65 (p < 0.01); and with the total cloud cover, 0.33 (p < 0.01). However, with a Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.11 (p < 0.01), no correlation is found with the precipitation data. Further evidence for the plausibility of the measurements is shown by a day-by-day analysis of the first half-year of 1709. Here, abrupt changes in the humidity measurements of Morin can be explained by the other measurements/observations of Morin. According to the correlation analysis, indirect notes in his journal, and others, we argue that Morin used the hygrometer developed by Vincenzo Viviani. However, the conversion of the data to common units is not performed and is subject to further research. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Importance of Long Climate Records)

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13 pages, 5150 KiB

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From Past to Present: Decoding Precipitation Patterns in a Complex Mediterranean River Basin

by Nazzareno Diodato and Gianni Bellocchi

Climate 2023, 11(7), 141; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11070141 - 4 Jul 2023

Viewed by 1352

Abstract

Enhancing spatial data attributes is crucial for effective basin-scale environmental modelling and improving our understanding and management of precipitation patterns. In this study, we focused on reconstructing homogeneous areal precipitation data in the complex terrain of the Calore River Basin (CRB) in Southern Italy. Until 1869, weather observations in the region were inconsistent, unstandardised, and lacked coordination, but the establishment of meteorological observatories brought a more unified approach to weather monitoring. We relied on the rainfall data obtained from two of these historical observatories: Benevento (1869–present) and Montevergine (1884–present). We utilised a statistical regression framework that considered rainfall measurements and temporal properties from specific locations to reconstruct and visually analyse the evolution patterns of annual mean areal precipitation (MAP) in the CRB from 1869 to 2020. The analysis revealed that mean MAP decreased from 1153 mm yr⁻¹ (1869–1951) to 998 mm yr⁻¹ (1952–2020). This decrease was accompanied by a reduction in interannual variability (from 168 mm yr⁻¹ to 147 mm yr⁻¹ standard deviation), and the difference between the means was significant (p < 0.0001), suggesting a sudden shift in the time-series. These findings provide a basis for CRB water resource management and insights for modelling other complex Mediterranean basins. Full article

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20 pages, 3981 KiB

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How Can a Changing Climate Influence the Productivity of Traditional Olive Orchards? Regression Analysis Applied to a Local Case Study in Portugal

by Carlos Silveira, Arlindo Almeida and António C. Ribeiro

Climate 2023, 11(6), 123; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11060123 - 1 Jun 2023

Viewed by 2601

Abstract

Nowadays, the climate is undoubtedly one of the main threats to the sustainability of olive orchards, especially in the case of rainfed traditional production systems. Local warming, droughts, and extreme weather events are some of the climatological factors responsible for environmental thresholds in relation to crops being exceeded. The main objective of this study was to investigate the influence of microclimatic variability on the productivity of traditional olive orchards in a municipality located in northeastern Portugal. For this purpose, official data on climate, expressed through agro-bioclimatic indicators, and olive productivity for a 21-year historical period (2000–2020) were used to evaluate potential correlations. In addition, a comprehensive regression analysis involving the dataset and the following modeling scenarios was carried out to develop regression models and assess the resulting predictions: (a) Random Forest (RF) with selected features; (b) Ordinary Least-Squares (OLS) with selected features; (c) OLS with correlation features; and (d) OLS with all features. For the a and b scenarios, features were selected applying the Recursive Feature Elimination with Cross-Validation (RFECV) technique. The best statistical performance was achieved considering nonlinearity among variables (a scenario, R² = 0.95); however, it was not possible to derive any model given the underlying methodology to this scenario. In linear regression applications, the best fit between model predictions and the real olive productivity was obtained when all the analyzed agro-bioclimatic indicators were included in the regression (d scenario, R² = 0.85). When selecting only the most relevant indicators using RFECV and correlation techniques, moderate correlations for the b and c regression scenarios were obtained (R² of 0.54 and 0.49, respectively). Based on the research findings, especially the regression models, their adaptability to other olive territories with similar agronomic and environmental characteristics is suggested for crop management and regulatory purposes. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Importance of Long Climate Records)

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