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Climate Impacts and Resilience in the Developing World

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A special issue of Climate (ISSN 2225-1154).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (30 June 2017) | Viewed by 106775

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Dr. Nir Krakauer

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1. Department of Civil Engineering and NOAA-CESSRST, City College of New York, New York, NY 10031, USA
2. Earth and Environmental Sciences, City University of New York Graduate Center, New York, NY 10017, USA
Interests: climate change; water resources planning; groundwater; land-atmosphere interaction; sustainable agriculture; urban ecological design; carbon cycle monitoring; renewable energy resource assessment; probabilistic forecasting; data assimilation; model uncertainty assessment
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Dr. Tarendra Lakhankar

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NOAA-CESSRST, The City College of New York, City University of New York, New York, NY, USA
Interests: remote sensing; snow and soil moisture; flood; drought
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Dr. Ajay K. Jha

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Institute of Global Agriculture and Technology Transfer" (IGATT), Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA
Interests: climate change adaptation on farm water management; renewable energy source and management; food-water-energy nexus; agriculture and watershed development; natural resource management; rural economic development; climate smart agriculture enterprise and sustainable development

Dr. Vishnu Pandey

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Asian Institute of Technology and Management (AITM), Knowledge Village, Khumaltar Height, P.O.Box: Lalitpur -25, Nepal
Interests: climate change vulnerability and adaptation in water sector; GIS application in water management; groundwater development and management; hydrological modeling; water-energy-carbon nexus; water resources development and management; socio-economic aspects of water management interventions
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Dr. Pramod K. Jha

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Department of Botany, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Nepal
Interests: plant ecology; invasive species; ethnobotany; medicinal plants; vegetation water relations; climate change impacts

Prof. Dr. Naba R. Devkota

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Agriculture and Forestry University, Directorate of Research and Extension, Rampur, Nepal
Interests: animal nutrition; fodder; mixed farming systems; livestock smallholding; agroforestry; climate resilience

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The people and ecologies of the developing world are highly vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change arising both from global greenhouse gas emissions and from regional aerosol emissions and land use and management practices. This Special Issue welcomes innovative approaches to support human development, sustainability, resilience (including health, nutrition, and gender equity), maintenance of biological diversity, ecosystem services, and rural livelihood. Of interest are original investigations of climate science focusing on the impacts of climate change and effectiveness of adaptation methods, and also review papers and integrations of science, policy, and action for broad-based, sustainable improvements in living standards of farmers, herders, and rural people, as well as of urban and periurban populations.

This special issue is associated with the "International Conference on Biodiversity, Climate Change Assessment, and Impacts on LIvelihood"(http://icbcl17.org), 10-12 January 2017, Kathmandu, Nepal, and with the "International Conference on Technological Advances in Climate-Smart Agriculture and Sustainability"(http://www.tacsas.org/), 16-18 January 2017, Nanded, MS, India.

Dr. Nir Y. Krakauer
Dr. Tarendra Lakhankar
Dr. Ajay K. Jha
Dr. Vishnu Pandey
Dr. Pramod K. Jha
Prof. Dr. Naba R. Devkota
Guest Editors

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Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Climate is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

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Keywords

regional climate change
monsoon
climate change impacts
rural economic development
land cover and land use change
resilience
sustainability
environmental justice
ecosystem services
agroecosystems
development studies
pest management
invasive species

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Published Papers (11 papers)

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985 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Analysis of Farmer’s Choices for Climate Change Adaptation Practices in South-Western Uganda, 1980–2009

by Alex Zizinga, Richard Y. M. Kangalawe, Andrew Ainslie, Moses M. Tenywa, Jackson Majaliwa, Naome Jones Saronga and Esther E. Amoako

Climate 2017, 5(4), 89; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5040089 - 2 Dec 2017

Cited by 28 | Viewed by 8321

Abstract

Climate change is a serious threat to the livelihoods of rural communities, particularly in mountainous areas because they are very sensitive to such changes. In this study, we assessed the household determinants to climate change adaptation drawing from a case study of agricultural adaptation in the Mount Rwenzori area of South Western Uganda. The study identified the major adaptation practices that are adopted by farmers to cope with the impacts of climate change and using available on-farm technologies. A total of 143 smallholder farmers were sampled and interviewed using field based questionnaires, field observations, and key informant interviews. Data was cleaned, entered and analysed using SPSS and Stata software for descriptive statistics. Thereafter, a Multinomial logistic regression model was used to assess the drivers of farmers’ choice for adaptation practices, factors influencing the choice of adaptation, and barriers. The major adaptation practices that were identified included; use of different crop varieties, tree planting, soil and water conservation, early and late planting, and furrow irrigation. Discrete choice model results indicated the age of the household head, experience in farming, household size, climate change shocks, land size, use of agricultural inputs, landscape position (location), and crop yield varied significantly (p > 0.05), which influenced farmers’ choice of climate change adaptation practices. The main barriers to adaptation included inadequate information on adaptation methods and financial constraints, leading us to conclude that contextual adaptation practices are more desirable for adoption to farmers. Adapting to climate change needs support from government and other stakeholders, however the implementation is more successful when appropriate and suitable choices are employed. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Impacts and Resilience in the Developing World)

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Open AccessArticle

Comparative Study of Monsoon Rainfall Variability over India and the Odisha State

by K C Gouda, Sanjeeb Kumar Sahoo, Payoshni Samantray and Himesh Shivappa

Climate 2017, 5(4), 79; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5040079 - 10 Oct 2017

Cited by 16 | Viewed by 14787

Abstract

Indian summer monsoon (ISM) plays an important role in the weather and climate system over India. The rainfall during monsoon season controls many sectors from agriculture, food, energy, and water, to the management of disasters. Being a coastal province on the eastern side of India, Odisha is one of the most important states affected by the monsoon rainfall and associated hydro-meteorological systems. The variability of monsoon rainfall is highly unpredictable at multiple scales both in space and time. In this study, the monsoon variability over the state of Odisha is studied using the daily gridded rainfall data from India Meteorological Department (IMD). A comparative analysis of the behaviour of monsoon rainfall at a larger scale (India), regional scale (Odisha), and sub-regional scale (zones of Odisha) is carried out in terms of the seasonal cycle of monsoon rainfall and its interannual variability. It is seen that there is no synchronization in the seasonal monsoon category (normal/excess/deficit) when analysed over large (India) and regional (Odisha) scales. The impact of El Niño, La Niña, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the monsoon rainfall at both scales (large scale and regional scale) is analysed and compared. The results show that the impact is much more for rainfall over India, but it has no such relation with the rainfall over Odisha. It is also observed that there is a positive (negative) relation of the IOD with the seasonal monsoon rainfall variability over Odisha (India). The correlation between the IAV of monsoon rainfall between the large scale and regional scale was found to be 0.46 with a phase synchronization of 63%. IAV on a sub-regional scale is also presented. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Impacts and Resilience in the Developing World)

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5887 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Decreasing Past and Mid-Century Rainfall Indices over the Ouémé River Basin, Benin (West Africa)

by Yèkambèssoun N’Tcha M’Po, Emmanuel Agnidé Lawin, Benjamin Kouassi Yao, Ganiyu Titilope Oyerinde, André Attogouinon and Abel Akambi Afouda

Climate 2017, 5(3), 74; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5030074 - 19 Sep 2017

Cited by 21 | Viewed by 5579

Abstract

This study analyzed the trends of extreme daily rainfall indices over the Ouémé basin using the observed data from 1950 to 2014 and the projected rainfall of regional climate model REMO (REgional MOdel) for the period 2015–2050. For future trends analysis, two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) new scenarios are considered, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The indices considered are number of heavy rainfall days, number of very heavy rainfall days, consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days, daily maximum rainfall, five-day maximum rainfall, annual wet-day total rainfall, simple daily intensity index, very wet days, and extremely wet days. These indices were calculated at annual and seasonal scales. The Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and the parametric linear regression approach were used for trends detection. As result, significant declining in the number of heavy and very heavy rainfall days, heavy and extremely heavy rainfall, consecutive wet days and annual wet-day rainfall total were detected in most stations for the historical period as well as the future period following the scenario RCP8.5. Furthermore, few stations presented significant trends for the scenario RCP4.5 and the high proportion of stations with the inconsistence trends invites the planners to get ready for an uncertain future climate following this scenario. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Impacts and Resilience in the Developing World)

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Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Germination Phenological Response Identifies Flora Risk to Climate Change

by Sarala Budhathoki Chhetri and Deepa Shree Rawal

Climate 2017, 5(3), 73; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5030073 - 18 Sep 2017

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 4243

Abstract

Climate change is prevalent across the world and can have large influence on plant regeneration, recruitment, survival and diversity. Regeneration and recruitment are the key phases in the plant life cycle and these two aspects are related to survival, adaptation and distribution of species. This study thus aims to explore the effect of projected climate change on germination and establishment response of some timber tree species from the tropical/subtropical broad leaf forests of Nepal. Germination experiments were carried out under three different temperature regimes (20, 25 and 30 °C) and germination parameters identified from the experimental component were calibrated in the mechanistic model Tree and Climate Assessment—Germination and Establishment Module (TACA-GEM) that helped in identifying species vulnerability to climate change. The model outcome under varied climatic conditions helped in determining the species risk to projected climatic conditions. The model demonstrates that the studied species were able to increase germination under the projected climate change however, establishment consistently failed for most of the species across the hot tropical sites. This finding indicates that spatial vulnerability may limit recruitment in the future. The species-specific responses suggest that, in general, all three species (Alnus nepalensis, Adina cordifolia, and Bombax ceiba) exhibited enhanced germination and establishment in moderately warm and colder sites, indicating that these species may more likely shift their range towards the north in future. Thus, the general species response exhibited in this study may aid in regional climate change adaptation planning in the sector of forest conservation and management. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Impacts and Resilience in the Developing World)

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Open AccessArticle

Comparison of Carbon Emission Trading Schemes in the European Union and China

by Mengya Zhang, Yong Liu and Yunpeng Su

Climate 2017, 5(3), 70; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5030070 - 2 Sep 2017

Cited by 19 | Viewed by 9261

Abstract

Given the growing evidence and scientific consensus on global climate change, carbon emission trading schemes (ETS) have been deemed crucial in mitigating the problem. Therefore, this study compares the mechanisms of ETS in the European Union with those in China. The results indicate similarities in cap determination, the coverage and calculation method of allowance allocation, trading participants and allowance category, offset credit, and MRV. On the other hand, the allocation method and supervision of allowance allocation, allowance formats and trading methods, market risk management, market linkage mechanism, and legislation security evidently appear to vary. However, the results were unable to identify which ETS is absolutely good or bad due to the political, economic, and institutional contexts and the varying developmental phases. Eventually, drawing on these findings, we conclude with implications for the promotion of ETS. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Impacts and Resilience in the Developing World)

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Open AccessArticle

Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Water Temperature and Dissolved Oxygen in Tropical Rivers

by Al-Amin Danladi Bello, Noor Baharim Hashim and Mohd Ridza Mohd Haniffah

Climate 2017, 5(3), 58; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5030058 - 28 Jul 2017

Cited by 44 | Viewed by 10423

Abstract

Predicting the impact of climate change and human activities on river systems is imperative for effective management of aquatic ecosystems. Unique information can be derived that is critical to the survival of aquatic species under dynamic environmental conditions. Therefore, the response of a tropical river system under climate and land-use changes from the aspects of water temperature and dissolved oxygen concentration were evaluated. Nine designed projected climate change scenarios and three future land-use scenarios were integrated into the Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF) model to determine the impact of climate change and land-use on water temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration using basin-wide simulation of river system in Malaysia. The model performance coefficients showed a good correlation between simulated and observed streamflow, water temperature, and DO concentration in a monthly time step simulation. The Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency for streamflow was 0.88 for the calibration period and 0.82 for validation period. For water temperature and DO concentration, data from three stations were calibrated and the Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency for both water temperature and DO ranged from 0.53 to 0.70. The output of the calibrated model under climate change scenarios show that increased rainfall and air temperature do not affects DO concentration and water temperature as much as the condition of a decrease in rainfall and increase in air temperature. The regression model on changes in streamflow, DO concentration, and water temperature under the climate change scenarios illustrates that scenarios that produce high to moderate streamflow, produce small predicted change in water temperatures and DO concentrations compared with the scenarios that produced a low streamflow. It was observed that climate change slightly affects the relationship between water temperatures and DO concentrations in the tropical rivers that we include in this study. This study demonstrates the potential impact of climate and future land-use changes on tropical rivers and how they might affect the future ecological systems. Most rivers in suburban areas will be ecologically unsuitable to some aquatic species. In comparison, rivers surrounded by agricultural and forestlands are less affected by the projected climate and land-uses changes. The results from this study provide a basis in which resource management and mitigation actions can be developed. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Impacts and Resilience in the Developing World)

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1923 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Assessment of Groundwater Resources in the Context of Climate Change and Population Growth: Case of the Klela Basin in Southern Mali

by Adama Toure, Bernd Diekkrüger, Adama Mariko and Abdoulaye Salim Cissé

Climate 2017, 5(3), 45; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5030045 - 1 Jul 2017

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 6467

Abstract

Groundwater in the Klela basin in Mali, a subbasin of the Bani basin (one of the main tributaries of the Niger River), is required for domestic use, irrigation and livestock. Furthermore, water supply of the city of Sikasso directly depends on the groundwater resources, which are under pressure caused by increased water demand as well as climate variability and climate change. As a consequence, freshwater availability is being threatened which can have a direct negative impact on irrigation agriculture. The aim of this study was to evaluate future behavior of groundwater resources in the context of climate change and population growth using socio-economic and population growth scenarios for water demand and the Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) data for calculating groundwater recharge using the Thornthwaite model. The WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning system) model was applied to balance water availability and demand and to compute changes in groundwater storage up to 2050. The overall results show that groundwater recharge as well as storage is decreasing over time, especially in the 2030s which can lead to severe agricultural droughts in this period. Recharge declined by approximatively 49% and stored groundwater by 24% over the study period. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Impacts and Resilience in the Developing World)

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1870 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Improving Hydro-Climatic Projections with Bias-Correction in Sahelian Niger Basin, West Africa

by Ganiyu Titilope Oyerinde, Fabien C. C. Hountondji, Agnide E. Lawin, Ayo J. Odofin, Abel Afouda and Bernd Diekkrüger

Climate 2017, 5(1), 8; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5010008 - 15 Feb 2017

Cited by 16 | Viewed by 6031

Abstract

Climate simulations in West Africa have been attributed with large uncertainties. Global climate projections are not consistent with changes in observations at the regional or local level of the Niger basin, making management of hydrological projects in the basin uncertain. This study evaluates the potential of using the quantile mapping bias correction to improve the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) outputs for use in hydrological impact studies. Rainfall and temperature projections from 8 CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCM) were bias corrected using the quantile mapping approach. Impacts of climate change was evaluated with bias corrected rainfall, temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET). The IHACRES hydrological model was adapted to the Niger basin and used to simulate impacts of climate change on discharge under present and future conditions. Bias correction with quantile mapping significantly improved the accuracy of rainfall and temperature simulations compared to observations. The mean of six efficiency coefficients used for monthly rainfall comparisons of 8 GCMs to the observed ranged from 0.69 to 0.91 and 0.84 to 0.96 before and after bias correction, respectively. The range of the standard deviations of the efficiency coefficients among the 8 GCMs rainfall data were significantly reduced from 0.05–0.14 (before bias correction) to 0.01–0.03 (after bias correction). Increasing annual rainfall, temperature, PET and river discharge were projected for most of the GCMs used in this study under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. These results will help improving projections and contribute to the development of sustainable climate change adaptation strategies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Impacts and Resilience in the Developing World)

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2653 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Daytime Variation of Urban Heat Islands: The Case Study of Doha, Qatar

by Yasuyo Makido, Vivek Shandas, Salim Ferwati and David Sailor

Climate 2016, 4(2), 32; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli4020032 - 16 Jun 2016

Cited by 47 | Viewed by 10288

Abstract

Recent evidence suggests that urban forms and materials can help to mediate temporal variation of microclimates and that landscape modifications can potentially reduce temperatures and increase accessibility to outdoor environments. To understand the relationship between urban form and temperature moderation, we examined the spatial and temporal variation of air temperature throughout one desert city—Doha, Qatar—by conducting vehicle traverses using highly resolved temperature and GPS data logs to determine spatial differences in summertime air temperatures. To help explain near-surface air temperatures using land cover variables, we employed three statistical approaches: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Regression Tree Analysis (RTA), and Random Forest (RF). We validated the predictions of the statistical models by computing the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and discovered that temporal variations in urban heat are mediated by different factors throughout the day. The average RMSE for OLS, RTA and RF is 1.25, 0.96, and 0.65 (in Celsius), respectively, suggesting that the RF is the best model for predicting near-surface air temperatures at this study site. We conclude by recommending the features of the landscape that have the greatest potential for reducing extreme heat in arid climates. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Impacts and Resilience in the Developing World)

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288 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperReview

The Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity in Nepal: Current Knowledge, Lacunae, and Opportunities

by Aishwarya Bhattacharjee, José D. Anadón, David J. Lohman, Tenzing Doleck, Tarendra Lakhankar, Bharat Babu Shrestha, Praseed Thapa, Durga Devkota, Sundar Tiwari, Ajay Jha, Mohan Siwakoti, Naba R. Devkota, Pramod K. Jha and Nir Y. Krakauer

Climate 2017, 5(4), 80; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5040080 - 11 Oct 2017

Cited by 45 | Viewed by 18825

Abstract

Nepal has an extreme altitudinal range from 60–8850 m with heterogeneous topography and distinct climatic zones. The country is considered a biodiversity hotspot, with nearly a quarter of the land area located in protected areas. Nepal and the surrounding Himalayan region are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their abrupt ecological and climatic transitions. Tens of millions of people rely on the region’s ecosystem services, and observed and modeled warming trends predict increased climate extremes in the Himalayas. To study the ecological impacts of climate change in Nepal and inform adaptation planning, we review the literature on past, present, and predicted future climatic changes and their impacts on ecological diversity in Nepal. We found few studies focusing on organisms, while research on species and communities was more common. Most studies document or predict species range shifts and changes in community composition. Results of these few investigations highlight major lacunae in research regarding the effects of changing climate on species comprising the Himalayan biota. Further empirical work is needed at all levels of biological organization to build on information regarding direct ecological impacts of climatic changes in the region. Countries face an ever-increasing threat of climate change, and Nepal has strong physiographic, elevational, and climatic gradients that could provide a useful model for studying the effects of climate change on a mountainous, and highly biodiverse, area. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Impacts and Resilience in the Developing World)

221 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceReview

The Vulnerability of Rice Value Chains in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Review

by Fanen Terdoo and Giuseppe Feola

Climate 2016, 4(3), 47; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli4030047 - 19 Sep 2016

Cited by 14 | Viewed by 10796

Abstract

Rice is one of the most important food crops in sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change, variability, and economic globalization threatens to disrupt rice value chains across the subcontinent, undermining their important role in economic development, food security, and poverty reduction. This paper maps existing research on the vulnerability of rice value chains, synthesizes the evidence and the risks posed by climate change and economic globalization, and discusses agriculture and rural development policies and their relevance for the vulnerability of rice value chains in sub-Saharan Africa. Important avenues for future research are identified. These include the impacts of multiple, simultaneous pressures on rice value chains, the effects of climate change and variability on parts of the value chain other than production, and the forms and extent to which different development policies hinder or enhance the resilience of rice value chains in the face of climatic and other pressures. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Impacts and Resilience in the Developing World)

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