Risk Management in Economics and Finance in the Age of Digital Ecosystems Development

Quantitative researchers often use Student’s t-test (and its p-values) to claim that a particular regressor is important (statistically significantly) for explaining the variation in a response variable. A study is subject to the p-hacking problem when its author relies too much on formal statistical significance while ignoring the size of what is at stake. We suggest reporting estimates using nonlinear kernel regressions and the standardization of all variables to avoid p-hacking. We are filling an essential gap in the literature because p-hacking-related papers do not even mention kernel regressions or standardization. Although our methods have general applicability in all sciences, our illustrations refer to risk management for a cross-section of firms and financial management in macroeconomic time series. We estimate nonlinear, nonparametric kernel regressions for both examples to illustrate the computation of scale-free generalized partial correlation coefficients (GPCCs). We suggest supplementing the usual p-values by “practical significance” revealed by scale-free GPCCs. We show that GPCCs also yield new pseudo regression coefficients to measure each regressor’s relative (nonlinear) contribution in a kernel regression. Full article

The effectiveness of the unification of enterprises in the cluster is also associated with high uncertainty and risks. Thus, the development of theoretical approaches and methodological instruments for efficient risk management of enterprises under the conditions of cluster association is an urgent scientific task. The methodology of a comprehensive risk assessment of the cluster enterprise is based on the use of the approach for building a functional-target model of a cluster enterprise, and is reduced to the search for a response to the question: can an event change the value of a providing indicator in such a way that this will lead to a deterioration in the resulting indicator in each enterprise subsystem? Based on the results of forecasting external risks, it was established that the group of state and global risks, in particular, political, territorial and financial, is characterized by significant threats for the next 5 years for the studied cluster enterprises. We proposed and tested a methodology for a comprehensive assessment of the risks of cluster enterprises, based on a functional-target approach, according to which a cluster enterprise as a socio-economic system is considered as a set of three basic subsystems: management, production and financial and economic. Full article

The article analyzes the literature and provides an assessment of the development of the stock market in the Russian Federation between 2016–2020. Today, the process of improving electronic technologies for carrying out operations in the stock market is also a continuing segment of the financial market. A methodology for assessing the development of the stock market in the example of the Russian Federation is proposed, with a description of the essence of the assessment indicator, the calculation formula and the threshold value. According to the results of the assessment and to the author’s proposed methodology, measures are proposed to improve the work of the stock market. Full article

The development of a methodology for the growth of the stock market through a deep transformation of the economic development system and introduction of digital technologies. The article is devoted to the study of the development of stock markets’ actual problems that affect the redistribution of capital between sectors of the economy by using tools and mechanisms between the financial and stock markets. The purpose of the study is to improve the regulatory segment of the stock market in order to further develop stock exchanges, integrate them into the global economic system, and attract investment in the economy. To achieve the goal, the following tasks were performed: the development of the London Stock Exchange was analyzed and the profit growth was determined; a comparative capitalization of the main stock instruments was carried out; internal factors of influence on the stock market were determined. The problem of the international stock market in all countries with emerging markets, first of all, lies in the improvement of the institutional environment, which is a prerequisite for the stability of the stock market. To analyze the development of stock markets, natural technical sciences were used to identify objective patterns, and determine the state and motives, using various methods and techniques: logic, generalizations, specific methods of cognition, comparison, and graphics. In the development of the stock market, the economy establishes certain natural actions in the real sector of the economy through a regulatory system of measures, and the needs of investments in the real sector of the economy, methods, and tools are used to achieve the desired results. Statistical, analytical, and dynamic methods were used. The essential foundations of the importance of stock markets and the economy are revealed; we discuss the penetration of knowledge and the conduction of a deep transformation through the introduction of digital technologies in all spheres of the economy, including the transformation of the development of the stock and financial markets nowadays. Results. The assessment of the state of securities markets in developed and developing countries is made on the example of the largest stock exchanges in Brazil and the United Kingdom. The features of the effective functioning of stock markets are revealed. The hypothesis is put forward about the insufficiency of research on the stock market of developed and developing countries and the mechanisms used having an insufficient impact on the development of the economy. From this point of view, an analysis of the dynamics of the current state of the issuers’ number and the dynamics of profitability of developed markets is carried out, the comparative capitalization volumes of the stock markets of Great Britain and Brazil are evaluated, and the weaknesses of their functioning are identified. Conclusions. The conducted research shows that countries, where stock markets are successfully functioning and developing, are catalysts for economic development and the accumulation of funds. Each country applies models of stock market development and a strategy for its regulation in accordance with the concept of a functioning market and its maturity. Full article

In the context of the dynamics of the modern external environment, the importance of risk management in general and the risks inherent in the processes of mergers and acquisitions has sharply increased. This is becoming one of the primary challenges in business, the solution of which will contribute to economic growth and development. In this article, based on a broad review of literature, the key risks of mergers and acquisitions are identified and classified, the level of their significance is assessed, the relevant management tools are selected for each risk and a computer program is developed that implements the selection of tools for each specific merger and acquisition transaction. A comprehensive automated methodology for the selection of risk management tools in the implementation of mergers and acquisitions can become an effective risk management tool for companies participating in such transactions. This will allow to identify and track risks in a timely manner, assess their significance, and, among other things, contribute to the adoption of effective management decisions regarding risk management. Full article

The problems of exploitation of technological windows of opportunity are of particular scientific and practical interest in terms of the development of Russia’s national economy, and the Arctic region, which has a strong mineral and raw materials potential, is important in terms of its use for achieving the technological and national security of the Russian state. Considering this, the study of the theoretical and methodical aspects of the development of emerging technological windows of opportunity is important and relevant for the regions of the Russian Arctic zone. The purpose of this study is to assess the potential and reserves for exploitation of the emerging technological windows of opportunity during the deployment of a new technological order by mobilizing material and human capital in the Arctic regions. Methodological tools for the study of this problem included dynamic series analysis, structural analysis, comparison, description, descriptive statistics, cross-correlation analysis, production function model and its visualization. An analytical review of scientific publications, a set of tools and methods of research, allowed to obtain the following scientific results: A significant variability in the contribution of science-intensive and high-tech industry to the formation of gross value added in the Arctic region has been revealed; meanwhile, we can note stable dynamics of the contribution of the Arctic economy to the gross domestic product (GRP) of Russia as a whole. There is a steady excess of the productivity index over the Russian average, which can be regarded as a potential for growth of high-tech components of labor in the development of the economy of the Arctic region. There is a negative statistically significant relationship between the share of the gross regional product of the Arctic in the Russian GRP and the share of gross value added (GVA) of science-intensive products in the Arctic GRP, which can be regarded as a factor preventing the exploitation of the emerging technological windows of opportunity. The construction of a model of production function of technological windows of opportunities for the Arctic zone of Russia pointed to the presence of potential in the exploitation of emerging technological windows in the Arctic zone of Russia in the development of human capital through the activation and use of high labor productivity, creating high-performance jobs. The results of the study, its findings and its proposals can be used in the development, monitoring and implementation of state federal and regional programs and projects aimed at improving the level of technology and science intensity of production in the Arctic zone, improving its competitiveness, which is highly important for the national economy. Full article