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26 pages, 729 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Coal Phase-Out in Germany and Its Regional Impact on Economic Worries

by Daniel Baron and Walter Bartl

Soc. Sci. 2024, 13(7), 339; https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci13070339 - 26 Jun 2024

Viewed by 1394

Market-driven closures of coal mines have typically been associated with negative economic consequences for the affected regions. In Germany, structural policy directed towards ameliorating the negative effects of hard coal decline in the Ruhr area lagged behind the onset of decline, caused major [...] Read more.

Market-driven closures of coal mines have typically been associated with negative economic consequences for the affected regions. In Germany, structural policy directed towards ameliorating the negative effects of hard coal decline in the Ruhr area lagged behind the onset of decline, caused major political conflicts, and has been variously criticized for its reactive character that failed to generate a positive image of the future. The phase-out of lignite coal in Germany, in contrast, is policy-driven and accompanied from the outset by compensatory and investment policies that strive to facilitate regional structural change proactively. Against this backdrop, we investigate how the policies of lignite coal phase-out initiated in 2018 and the accompanying public discourse affect the economic worries of individuals in the remaining three lignite coal mining areas in Germany. We focus on the period 2016–2021, using a longitudinal multilevel design based on regional and individual data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). Overall, probabilities of strong economic worries decrease throughout the observed period. Results show that subjective economic worries do not significantly differ between residents of lignite mining regions and those in the rest of the country. Further robustness analyses confirm that the coal phase-out policy has not increased economic uncertainties in the populations of German lignite mining regions. Based on our results, we discuss the need for future research on the effects of policy designs of clean energy transitions on subjective perceptions of the future. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Regional Development Dynamics and Their Social, Economic and Political Consequences)

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23 pages, 4053 KiB

Open AccessArticle

School-to-Work Transitions under Unequal Conditions: A Regionalised Perspective on the ‘Discouraged Worker’ Hypothesis

by Katarina Wessling, Andreas Hartung and Steffen Hillmert

Soc. Sci. 2023, 12(10), 547; https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci12100547 - 29 Sep 2023

Viewed by 1470

Abstract

Against the background of considerable regional disparities, we test the “discouraged worker” hypothesis, which postulates that poor regional socioeconomic conditions foster students’ aspirations for more education, ultimately leading to an extension of their educational careers. Our two dependent variables are (i) whether students [...] Read more.

Against the background of considerable regional disparities, we test the “discouraged worker” hypothesis, which postulates that poor regional socioeconomic conditions foster students’ aspirations for more education, ultimately leading to an extension of their educational careers. Our two dependent variables are (i) whether students aspire to prolong their general school careers or enter vocational training and (ii) whether they in fact prolong their school careers. To that end, we link regional-level data to individual-level data from the German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS). To describe regional conditions adequately, we illustrate geographical patterns in socioeconomic conditions relevant for school-to-work transitions (e.g., labour market conditions and availability of vocational training opportunities). We compare two operationalisations of regional areas: (i) administrative districts and (ii) public transport areas. Our results show that students are more likely to aspire to prolong their general school careers in socioeconomically deprived regions. Moreover, the effects are stronger when school-based vocational training opportunities are scarce. The effects on actual transitions vary according to the school track attended and the availability of educational alternatives in the general school system. Finally, the operationalisation of regions varies regarding effect sizes and corresponding levels of statistical significance. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Regional Development Dynamics and Their Social, Economic and Political Consequences)

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22 pages, 644 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Left Behind Together and Voting for Populism: Regional Out-Migration, Civic Engagement and the Electoral Success of Populist Radical Right Parties

by Stephan Schütze

Soc. Sci. 2023, 12(8), 426; https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci12080426 - 26 Jul 2023

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2142

Abstract

According to the academic debate, the populist radical right is particularly successful in regions that have been left behind economically or culturally. Although civic engagement in networks of civil society, a specific form of social capital, seems important, its influence remains ambiguous. In [...] Read more.

According to the academic debate, the populist radical right is particularly successful in regions that have been left behind economically or culturally. Although civic engagement in networks of civil society, a specific form of social capital, seems important, its influence remains ambiguous. In contrast, regional out-migration as a social dimension of being left behind receives limited attention despite the relevance of internal migration to political geography. This study investigates two theoretically possible models to clarify the relationships between regional out-migration, civic engagement, and their impacts on voting for the populist radical right. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) and official regional statistics, logistic multilevel analyses are conducted for Germany and the election of the AfD (Alternative for Germany) in the 2017 federal election. The key finding of the cross-sectional analysis is that regional out-migration is a condition that moderates the relationship between civic participation and the election of the AfD. In general, civically involved individuals support established democratic parties, but in regions with high out-migration, they tend to vote for the populist radical right. However, there is no empirical evidence that regional out-migration contributes to the election of the AfD by reducing civic engagement and being mediated by it. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Regional Development Dynamics and Their Social, Economic and Political Consequences)

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22 pages, 443 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Assessing Regional Variation in Support for the Radical Right-Wing Party ‘Alternative for Germany’ (AfD)—A Novel Application of Institutional Anomie Theory across German Districts

by Amelie Nickel and Eva Groß

Soc. Sci. 2023, 12(7), 412; https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci12070412 - 17 Jul 2023

Viewed by 2423

Abstract

The paper at hand aims to address a research gap by examining the spatial impact of economic and non-economic institutions on regional variation in the support for the German populist far-right party ‘Alternative for Germany (AfD)’. Adopting an interdisciplinary approach and drawing on [...] Read more.

The paper at hand aims to address a research gap by examining the spatial impact of economic and non-economic institutions on regional variation in the support for the German populist far-right party ‘Alternative for Germany (AfD)’. Adopting an interdisciplinary approach and drawing on institutional anomie theory, the study explores the relationship between economic dominance—economic inequality and economic strength—and regional AfD vote share, as well as the role of non-economic institutions in shaping support for the party. Using various regional indicators, the study assesses the strength of different institutions and their impact on the AfD’s electoral results in the year 2021 across 401 German districts (NUTS 3-level). The results point to significant differences between eastern and western Germany in the analysis of regional populist voting patterns. Economic dominance emerges as a stronger predictor of the AfD’s vote share in eastern regions. However, the findings on the protective effect of strong non-economic institutions against AfD voting are ambiguous and partly contrary to theoretical expectations. Overall, the study’s findings show that the newly introduced indicators deduced from institutional anomie theory contribute to the existing literature to help better understand regional variances in AfD support. Furthermore, the study contributes to the existing literature on the rise of contemporary radical right movements by employing Karl Polanyi’s framework of ‘disembedded’ markets. In doing so, it sheds light on the complex interplay between social change, anomic tendencies, and the growth of radical right movements in capitalist societies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Regional Development Dynamics and Their Social, Economic and Political Consequences)

29 pages, 1842 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Assessing the Effects of District-Level Segregation on Meritocratic Beliefs in Germany

by Nicole Oetke, Maria Norkus and Jan Goebel

Soc. Sci. 2023, 12(7), 376; https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci12070376 - 27 Jun 2023

Viewed by 2078

Abstract

In recent years, researchers have grappled with the phenomenon that public demand for redistribution has not systematically increased in response to rising inequality. Meritocratic beliefs have been suggested as an explanation for this observation, because they can help legitimize inequalities. Past research has [...] Read more.

In recent years, researchers have grappled with the phenomenon that public demand for redistribution has not systematically increased in response to rising inequality. Meritocratic beliefs have been suggested as an explanation for this observation, because they can help legitimize inequalities. Past research has identified local-level inequality, segregation, or diversity as important factors for how these beliefs might be formed and maintained. Different theoretical approaches have been advanced and tested to determine the direction and extent of these effects, producing mixed results. We put these theories to the test by focusing on a country in which changes in the level of inequality have indeed been met with equal changes in justice perceptions: Germany. Furthermore, we broaden the scope by focusing on local segregation between different socioeconomic status groups, rather than income inequality. To do so, we utilize geocoded individual-level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), microm data, and relevant geospatial indicators from the INKAR database. We find some indication that residential segregation of status groups and isolation of high status groups is associated with less support of meritocratic beliefs, contradicting previous work. Additionally, we find evidence of urban–rural differences in the effects of segregation. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Regional Development Dynamics and Their Social, Economic and Political Consequences)

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26 pages, 386 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Making the Match: The Importance of Local Labor Markets for the Employment Prospects of Refugees

by Dorian Tsolak and Marvin Bürmann

Soc. Sci. 2023, 12(6), 339; https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci12060339 - 8 Jun 2023

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2033

Abstract

We examine how local labor markets shape the employment prospects of refugees in Germany, where refugees are assigned to regions through a dispersal policy. While it is known that the characteristics of these regions affect the overall employment probability of refugees, previous studies [...] Read more.

We examine how local labor markets shape the employment prospects of refugees in Germany, where refugees are assigned to regions through a dispersal policy. While it is known that the characteristics of these regions affect the overall employment probability of refugees, previous studies have not investigated how refugees’ chances of regaining their pre-migration occupation are affected by the local opportunities to find employment in these occupations. To address this gap, we use a large survey of refugees in Germany and link local-occupational labor market characteristics to their region of residence and pre-migration occupation. We decompose the effects of these detailed context characteristics by estimating linear probability regressions with and without fixed effects for regions and/or occupations. While our analyses show that the employment probability of refugees is indeed strongly influenced by the general local characteristics of their place of residence and general, nationwide characteristics of their pre-migration occupation, our analyses also show that the chances of refugees being employed in their pre-migration occupation are additionally driven by the local characteristics of their occupation. More specifically, our models reveal that a one standard deviation higher local share of foreigners in refugees’ pre-migration occupation increases the average probability of an occupational match by around 25 percent. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Regional Development Dynamics and Their Social, Economic and Political Consequences)

18 pages, 1642 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Spatial Dimension of Social Stratification in Germany—Are Social Class Differentials in Place of Residence Increasing?

by Dirk Konietzka and Yevgeniy Martynovych

Soc. Sci. 2023, 12(6), 326; https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci12060326 - 31 May 2023

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2324

Abstract

It is widely assumed that post-industrial societies are characterized not only by growing economic inequalities and social polarization but also by increasing spatial segregation. This paper does not address residential segregation (i.e., “intra-city” inequalities), but instead investigates how social classes are distributed over [...] Read more.

It is widely assumed that post-industrial societies are characterized not only by growing economic inequalities and social polarization but also by increasing spatial segregation. This paper does not address residential segregation (i.e., “intra-city” inequalities), but instead investigates how social classes are distributed over different settlement types and whether class differences in places of residence have increased between 1996 and 2018. Based on microcensus data and applying the ESeC class schema, we focus on the question of whether members of the “new middle class” are increasingly concentrated in post-industrial metropolises while members of the “old middle class” largely reside in peripheral towns and regions. The results do not support the assumption that spatial disparities between classes have systematically increased in Germany. However, opposing trends in the likelihood of residing in the most dynamic cluster of the German metropolises are observed for the youngest age group of the new middle class and the oldest age group of the old middle class. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Regional Development Dynamics and Their Social, Economic and Political Consequences)

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22 pages, 2748 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Does the Region Make a Difference? Social Inequality in Transitions to Adulthood across Cohorts in West Germany

by Katarina Weßling

Soc. Sci. 2023, 12(5), 303; https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci12050303 - 16 May 2023

Viewed by 1603

Abstract

Since the availability of study opportunities is unequal across regions, entering the phase of post-secondary education is often accompanied by leaving (the parental) home. In these life-course transitions, social background plays a crucial role in the form of resources, e.g., to afford living [...] Read more.

Since the availability of study opportunities is unequal across regions, entering the phase of post-secondary education is often accompanied by leaving (the parental) home. In these life-course transitions, social background plays a crucial role in the form of resources, e.g., to afford living independently while studying. We use a unique set of geospatial data by aggregating information on the municipality level flexibly within travel-time radii and link the data to the German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS) to examine whether socioeconomic and university infrastructure in the region can compensate for a lack of parental resources (i) in transitions to university and (ii) in the likelihood of staying in or leaving the home region to study. We analyse this across cohorts between 1986 and 2015. We find that the region makes a difference: a wide availability of universities in the region offsets social inequality in the transition to university. Yet, the increasing availability of alternative educational routes over time via vocational training and universities of applied sciences causes this moderating influence to decrease across cohorts. Our findings call for gearing the attention of policymakers towards the varying relevance of regional conditions over time and across social groups for individuals’ life-course transitions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Regional Development Dynamics and Their Social, Economic and Political Consequences)

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25 pages, 359 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Navigating Regional Barriers to Job Mobility: The Role of Opportunity Structures in Individual Job-to-Job Transitions

by Katrin Rickmeier

Soc. Sci. 2023, 12(5), 295; https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci12050295 - 9 May 2023

Viewed by 3042

Abstract

Job-to-job transitions are associated with career progression and wage gains. Thus, regional differences in job mobility potentially contribute to and reinforce regional and social inequalities. This study aims to close the research gap in the understanding of the regional contexts in which individual [...] Read more.

Job-to-job transitions are associated with career progression and wage gains. Thus, regional differences in job mobility potentially contribute to and reinforce regional and social inequalities. This study aims to close the research gap in the understanding of the regional contexts in which individual job mobility occurs. Using the theoretical concept of regional opportunity structures, three key aspects of region-related job changes are investigated: regional determinants of (1) general job mobility; (2) job mobility with wage gains; and (3) simultaneous job and residential mobility. This study is based on individual data from the German Socio-Economic Panel study, enriched with regional indicators. The results show that job changes are negatively associated with labour market tightness, indicating that workers are less likely to change jobs in regions with a high ratio of job vacancies to unemployed workers. Fewer job-to-job transitions in tighter labour markets suggests that regional factors such as job availability and security play an important role in shaping job mobility, and that policies aimed at promoting job transitions may need to consider the specificities of local labour markets. The effects of other indicators of economic opportunities remain insignificant, and there are no clear effects of other aspects of regional opportunity structures. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Regional Development Dynamics and Their Social, Economic and Political Consequences)

21 pages, 866 KiB

Open AccessArticle

»Should I Stay or Should I Go?« Prevalence and Predictors of Spatial Mobility among Youth in the Transition to Vocational Education and Training in Germany

by Linda Hoffmann and Alexandra Wicht

Soc. Sci. 2023, 12(5), 277; https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci12050277 - 4 May 2023

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2354

Abstract

Spatial mobility is an important means of tackling regional disparities and matching problems in education and labor markets, but it is also a source of individual social inequality as it is associated with higher socio-economic resources and returns; however, there is a paucity [...] Read more.

Spatial mobility is an important means of tackling regional disparities and matching problems in education and labor markets, but it is also a source of individual social inequality as it is associated with higher socio-economic resources and returns; however, there is a paucity of research on the prevalence and predictors of spatial mobility among youth entering vocational education and training (VET). We examine the importance of (a) individual occupational orientations, (b) regional opportunity structures, and (c) social ties for the spatial mobility of youth in this early transition phase using longitudinal data from the German NEPS, which we combined with administrative geospatial data of German districts (NUTS-3). Our results show widespread spatial mobility among students entering the VET system: 16% are mobile within and 22% between regional labor markets. Multinomial logistic regression models show that, in addition to young people’s occupational orientations (status aspirations; search duration) and social ties to friends, regional opportunity structures (general unattractiveness; person–environment mismatch) are crucial for youths’ spatial mobility. This underscores the importance of spatial mobility given regional disparities to promote youths’ access to VET and reduce regional mismatches in the VET market. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Regional Development Dynamics and Their Social, Economic and Political Consequences)

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20 pages, 6913 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Influence of Migration Patterns on Regional Demographic Development in Germany

by Julian Ernst, Sebastian Dräger, Simon Schmaus, Jan Weymeirsch, Ahmed Alsaloum and Ralf Münnich

Soc. Sci. 2023, 12(5), 255; https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci12050255 - 22 Apr 2023

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2407

Abstract

Political decision-making related to future challenges, for example in the fields of medical care, the housing market or education highly depend on valid estimates of the future population size and structure. However, such developments are usually heterogeneous throughout a country making subnational projections [...] Read more.

Political decision-making related to future challenges, for example in the fields of medical care, the housing market or education highly depend on valid estimates of the future population size and structure. However, such developments are usually heterogeneous throughout a country making subnational projections necessary. It is well-known that these regional differences are highly influenced by both internal and external migration processes. In this paper, we investigate the consequences of different migration assumptions on regional development in Germany using a spatial dynamic microsimulation. We find that migration assumptions have a strong direct influence on the future population and composition at the regional level and, therefore, require special attention. Depending on the scenario selected, very different socio-demographic trends may emerge in specific districts or even district types. We also demonstrate that migration assumptions affect non-demographic indicators such as the participation rate, albeit to a lesser extent. The findings are relevant to understanding the sensitivity of population projections to migration assumptions both on the national and regional level. This also paves the way to analyze how potential political interventions behave under those assumed future migration processes. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Regional Development Dynamics and Their Social, Economic and Political Consequences)

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41 pages, 5220 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Sports Participation and Beliefs about Male Dominance: A Cross-National Analysis of Sexist Gender Ideologies

by Simon Lütkewitte

Soc. Sci. 2023, 12(4), 207; https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci12040207 - 3 Apr 2023

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 8488

Abstract

To fill the gap in empirical research on the relationship between sexist gender ideologies and sports participation, I examined how sports participation affects the endorsement of sexist gender ideologies by men and women and how country-level gender inequalities moderate this relationship. For the [...] Read more.

To fill the gap in empirical research on the relationship between sexist gender ideologies and sports participation, I examined how sports participation affects the endorsement of sexist gender ideologies by men and women and how country-level gender inequalities moderate this relationship. For the analysis, I used cross-national survey data from the World Values Survey and the European Values Study, including observations collected between 2005 and 2016 on 57,817 men and 61,080 women from 74 countries that vary in terms of gender equality, religiosity, modernization, and economic development. My findings show that when controlling for sociodemographic factors and between-country differences in sexist gender ideologies, men who are sports club members endorse sexist gender ideologies to a significantly greater degree than men who are not sports club members. This finding is independent of the prevalence of gender inequalities in a country. Furthermore, in very gender-inegalitarian countries, women who are active sports club members tend to hold less sexist gender ideologies than women who are not sports club members or are not active members, while they do not differ substantially in the endorsement of sexist gender ideologies in relatively egalitarian countries. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Regional Development Dynamics and Their Social, Economic and Political Consequences)

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30 pages, 541 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Place of Residence Does Matter for Educational Integration: The Relevance of Spatial Contexts for Refugees’ Transition to VET in Germany

by Franziska Meyer and Oliver Winkler

Soc. Sci. 2023, 12(3), 120; https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci12030120 - 24 Feb 2023

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2617

Abstract

For the mostly young refugees who arrived in Germany around 2015/2016, completing vocational education and training (VET) represents the most promising opportunity for professional and social integration. However, access opportunities to VET are characterized by spatial inequalities: German districts vary considerably according to [...] Read more.

For the mostly young refugees who arrived in Germany around 2015/2016, completing vocational education and training (VET) represents the most promising opportunity for professional and social integration. However, access opportunities to VET are characterized by spatial inequalities: German districts vary considerably according to labour market structure, economic productivity and demographic development, which constitute the supply and demand for training places in the dual VET sector, to which refugees predominantly have access. This paper examines if the transition chances of young refugees aged 18–30 to VET depend on their place of residence. For this, we analysed the IAB-BAMF-SOEP Survey of Refugees (n = 5216) using multi-level discrete-time event history analysis. On the supply side, higher economic productivity (measured by GDP), a low unemployment rate and a greater number of small versus large businesses in the district are positively associated with refugees’ transition chances. On the demand side, an increasing number of school leavers with no school-leaving certificate and of refugees in the district are negatively associated with the respective chances. Our results suggest that spatial characteristics essentially matter for young refugees’ training opportunities and thus support recommendations to reform current distribution policies, in which central spatial contextual factors remain largely disregarded. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Regional Development Dynamics and Their Social, Economic and Political Consequences)

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20 pages, 1361 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The New Dimension of Social Inequality: The Agricultural Land Use Structure and the Development Level of Settlements

by Ágnes Győri and Imre Kovách

Soc. Sci. 2023, 12(2), 88; https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci12020088 - 9 Feb 2023

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1839

Abstract

The structure of land ownership and land use changed significantly after the fall of the communist regime in most CEE countries. The goal of this paper is to present a unique analysis of the highly concentrated Hungarian land system and model spatial differences. [...] Read more.

The structure of land ownership and land use changed significantly after the fall of the communist regime in most CEE countries. The goal of this paper is to present a unique analysis of the highly concentrated Hungarian land system and model spatial differences. Using settlements as observation units, this research proposes a methodology to include data on land of all individual and corporate farms. First, according to the dominant farm size, we classified the farms into six types of land use structures, applying latent profile analysis. Then, we studied the distribution of their geographical location. We examined the statistical relationship between land ownership structure and the economic, social, and infrastructural characteristics and development level of settlements. One of the unexpected results of the research is that the dominance of large farms is mostly related to the higher values of the development indicators of the settlements. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Regional Development Dynamics and Their Social, Economic and Political Consequences)

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