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Statistical Modelling of Hydrological Extremes: Floods and Droughts

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Dear Colleagues,

In the face of observed climate change, we are increasingly dealing with extreme hydrological phenomena, such as droughts and floods. Their assessment, modelling and prediction represent a significant challenge for the scientific community. Due to their profound effects, hydrological extremes are also of special interest to the general public, policymakers and natural event risk managers. Hence, the most pressing challenge currently is the development of a new generation of more accurate and reliable models that can estimate the impact of environmental changes on the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events.

In this Special Issue of Water, we are particularly interested in studies presenting innovative approaches to the statistical modelling and analysis of hydrological extremes, namely floods and droughts. We invite authors to present their research on the following topics, among other related subjects:

Univariate and multivariate extreme value analysis;
Flood frequency modelling;
Regional and global drought analysis;
Assessment of uncertainties in hydrological observations;
(Combined) use of various sources of data as in situ, satellite, climate model outputs, paleohistorical, etc.
Projections of extreme hydrological phenomena;
Compound events approach;
Socio-environmental consequences of hydrological extremes;
Vulnerability analysis of extreme events.

Dr. Iwona Kuptel-Markiewicz
Guest Editor

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Research

17 pages, 7217 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Damage Inflicted by Extreme Drought on Poyang Lake Delta Wetland and the Establishment of Countermeasures

by Yang Xia, Yue Liu, Zhichao Wang, Zhiwen Huang, Wensun You, Qiuqin Wu, Sufen Zhou and Jun Zou

Water 2024, 16(16), 2292; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16162292 - 14 Aug 2024

Viewed by 787

Abstract

Due to the joint influence of climate change and human activities, the hydrological rhythm of Poyang Lake has changed in recent years, leading to an increasingly severe drought problem during autumn and winter in this region. Notably, the extreme drought that occurred in 2022 had profound impacts on shipping, water supply and the ecological environment of the wetlands in the Poyang Lake Delta, sparking widespread concern. Based on the historical hydrometeorological data of Poyang Lake, we used statistical models (such as Chow test, correlation analysis, etc.) to analyze the cause of the extreme drought in the Poyang Lake Delta from the perspectives of natural factors and human activity. Through correlation analysis, we found that the water level, discharge, and drought duration of the Poyang Lake Delta were all significantly affected by climate change, particularly rainfall in the Poyang Lake basin. Furthermore, combining the results of Chow test and correlation analysis, we also found that the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir had a notable impact on the water level of the Poyang Lake Delta. Based on remote sensing images, ecological and environmental sampling monitoring, the damage inflicted by the extreme drought event on the Poyang Lake Delta was analyzed. The results show that the inundated area of the delta wetlands in the extreme-drought year (2022) decreased by 45.75% compared with that in a normal year (2017). In addition, the ecological environment of the wetlands deteriorated significantly. The water quality parameters (TN, TP, NH₄⁺-N) increased by 50.2%, 240% and 64.7%, respectively. The concentrations of TN and TP were 3.8 mg/L and 0.17 mg/L, respectively, while the context values in the delta were 1.2 mg/L and 0.075 mg/L. The density and biomass of algae increased by 87.2% and 557.9%, respectively. In contrast, the density and biomass of benthos decreased by 59.9% and 78.5%, respectively. The control strategy for the Poyang Lake Delta under extreme drought was studied through an experiment on the operation of hydraulic controllers. The results show that under extreme drought conditions, the newly built hydraulic controllers could raise the water level of the delta from 9.1 ± 0.7 m to 14.2 ± 1.8 m, thus effectively solving the water cut-off problem in the four branches of the delta. Furthermore, by adjusting the distributive ratio of the main, north, middle and south branches of the delta to 50%, 4%, 24% and 22% through newly built hydraulic controllers, the water area can be increased by 56%. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Statistical Modelling of Hydrological Extremes: Floods and Droughts)

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23 pages, 2239 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Developing Regional Hydrological Drought Risk Models through Ordinary and Principal Component Regression Using Low-Flow Indexes in Susurluk Basin, Turkey

by Çiğdem Gürler, Alper Serdar Anli and Havva Eylem Polat

Water 2024, 16(11), 1473; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16111473 - 22 May 2024

Viewed by 882

Abstract

Susurluk Basin is among the basins that may be most affected by drought risk due to its agricultural, economic, and natural resources. In this study, regional hydrological drought risk models were developed for water supply systems in the Susurluk Basin, Turkey. Twenty-four flow observation sites with 25 years or more of data showing natural flow characteristics as much as possible were converted into daily flow data with Q₇, Q₁₅, Q₃₀, and Q₆₀ low-flow indexes. Regionalization was carried out by two-stage multivariate cluster and principal component analysis using the basins’ physical and hydrological characteristics and low-flow statistics, and two homogeneous regions were obtained due to the discordancy, heterogeneity, and goodness of fit tests, which are L-moment approaches. Regional models were performed with ordinary and principal component regression techniques using the physical and hydrological characteristics of the watersheds and regional low-flow frequency analysis. The cross-validation procedure results for ungauged basins show that ordinary regression models are more effective in the lowland first region. In contrast, principal component regression models are more suitable for the mountainous second region. This study’s findings, which are a first for the Susurluk Basin, will have important results in terms of agricultural water management in the region and will help the water authority in water allocation. To investigate whether human impact and climate change impact the prediction of hydrological drought, we recommend seasonal non-stationary frequency analysis with the addition of useful empirical hydrological drought indexes. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Statistical Modelling of Hydrological Extremes: Floods and Droughts)

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