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Innovative Flood Risk Management under Changing Environments

A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Urban Water Management".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (25 June 2024) | Viewed by 10213

Special Issue Editors


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Guest Editor
Water Resources at Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
Interests: machine learning approach; water quality forecasting; urban defuse pollution; big data analysis; source apportionment
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Guest Editor
Institute of Urban and Industrial Water Management, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany
Interests: transport and conversion processes in the sewer system; regional matter and water flux analysis; modelling of wastewater system; integrated water resources management

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Guest Editor
School of Environment, South China Normal University, University Town, Guangzhou, China
Interests: drinking water quality; intelligent modelling
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

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Guest Editor
Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research—UFZ, Leipzig, Germany
Interests: urban hydrology; water quality modeling; flood risk management; non-point pollution; climate change; urbanization projection

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Climate change and urbanization are altering regional hydro-environments, bringing new challenges to flood risk management. On the one hand, climate change-induced hydrological alterationin the severity of different types of floods (fluvial, pluvial, and coastal) and to the increasingly complex flood interaction across urban, basin, and national scales. On the other hand, urbanization has led to the creation of densely populated areas and intensified anthropogenic activities, not only increasing the risk of population exposure to floods but also potentially introducing flood-triggered pollution issues, posing a threat to urban resilience.

To address these issues, a novel framework for flood risk management under changing environments is necessary. Regarding flood complexity, multi-scale hydrological modeling approaches can combine different types and scales of floods, helping us unravel flood interactions during risk assessment. In terms of urban resilience, multi-dimensional flood risk assessment can analyze the direct hazards of floods whilst considering their associated impacts, such as pollution and exposure risks. In doing so, it can comprehensively optimize decision-making in urban flood adaptation in response to climate change and urbanization.

However, given the complexity of spatiotemporal trends in climate change and urbanization, traditional modeling-based approaches are facing increasing challenges. Therefore, integrating traditional methods with cutting-edge technologies could be a promising solution. For instance, machine learning methods have already shown great abilities in short-term flood forecasting, and data mining methods can offer a more integrated assessment of flood hazards by incorporating diverse data sources, such as CCTV, remote sensing, and social media big data.

Accordingly, the primary purpose of this Special Issue is to present recent studies on novel frameworks for flood risk management in terms of multi-scale hydrological modeling, multi-dimensional flood risk management, flood-triggered pollution, machine learning, and data mining-based flood analysis. The methods and findings of this Special Issue will provide additional insights into sustainable urban development under climate change and urbanization.

Prof. Dr. Jin Zhang
Prof. Dr. Peter Krebs
Prof. Dr. Pei Hua
Dr. Wenyu Yang
Guest Editors

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Keywords

  • multi-scale hydrological modeling
  • urban resilience under climate change and urbanization
  • flood-triggered pollution
  • multi-dimensional flood risk management
  • machine learning flood forecasting
  • data mining-based flood risk assessment

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Published Papers (3 papers)

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Research

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16 pages, 3314 KiB  
Article
Frequency-Based Flood Risk Assessment and Mapping of a Densely Populated Kano City in Sub-Saharan Africa Using MOVE Framework
by Ali Aldrees, Abdulrasheed Mohammed, Salisu Dan’azumi and Sani Isah Abba
Water 2024, 16(7), 1013; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16071013 - 31 Mar 2024
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1533
Abstract
Flooding is a major environmental problem facing urban cities, causing varying degrees of damage to properties and disruption to socio-economic activities. Nigeria is the most populous African country and Kano metropolis is the second largest urban center in Nigeria, and the most populated [...] Read more.
Flooding is a major environmental problem facing urban cities, causing varying degrees of damage to properties and disruption to socio-economic activities. Nigeria is the most populous African country and Kano metropolis is the second largest urban center in Nigeria, and the most populated in Northern Nigeria. The aim of the paper was to conduct a flood risk assessment of Kano metropolis. The city is divided into two hydrological basins: the Challawa and Jakara basins. Flood frequency analyses for 2 to 100-year return periods were carried out for both the basins using a Log-Pearson Type III distribution and flood inundation and hazard mapping was carried out. The social vulnerability to flooding of both basins was assessed using the method for the improvement of vulnerability assessment in Europe (MOVE) framework. Flood risk was determined as a product of flood hazard and flood vulnerability. The results showed that areas of 50.91 and 40.56 km2 were vulnerable to a 100-year flood. The flood risk map for the two basins showed that 10.50 km2 and 14.23 km2 of land in Challawa and Jakara basins, respectively, was affected by the risk of a 100-year flood, out of which 11.48 km2 covers built-up areas. As the city is densely populated, with a population density of well over 20,000 persons per square kilometer in the highly built-up locations, this means that much more than 230,000 persons will be affected by the flood risk in the two basins. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Innovative Flood Risk Management under Changing Environments)
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20 pages, 3763 KiB  
Article
Analysing Urban Flooding Risk with CMIP5 and CMIP6 Climate Projections
by Rafiu Oyelakin, Wenyu Yang and Peter Krebs
Water 2024, 16(3), 474; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16030474 - 31 Jan 2024
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 2430
Abstract
Fitting probability distribution functions to observed data is the standard way to compute future design floods, but may not accurately reflect the projected future pattern of extreme events related to climate change. In applying the latest coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5 and CMIP6), [...] Read more.
Fitting probability distribution functions to observed data is the standard way to compute future design floods, but may not accurately reflect the projected future pattern of extreme events related to climate change. In applying the latest coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5 and CMIP6), this research investigates how likely it is that precipitation changes in CMIP5 and CMIP6 will affect both the magnitude and frequency of flood analysis. GCM output from four modelling institutes in CMIP5, with representative pathway concentration (RCP8.5) and the corresponding CMIP6 shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP585), were selected for historical and future periods, before the project precipitation was statistically downscaled for selected cities by using delta, quantile mapping (QM), and empirical quantile mapping (EQM). On the basis of performance evaluation, a rainfall-runoff hydrological model was developed by using the stormwater management model (SWMM) for CMIPs (CMIP5 and CMIP6) in historical and future horizons. The results reveal an unprecedented increase in extreme events, for both CMIP5 (historical) and CMIP6 (future) projections. The years 2070–2080 were identified by both CMIP5 and CMIP6 as experiencing the most severe flooding. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Innovative Flood Risk Management under Changing Environments)
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Review

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29 pages, 4820 KiB  
Review
Evolution of Flood Prediction and Forecasting Models for Flood Early Warning Systems: A Scoping Review
by Nicholas Byaruhanga, Daniel Kibirige, Shaeden Gokool and Glen Mkhonta
Water 2024, 16(13), 1763; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16131763 - 21 Jun 2024
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 5780
Abstract
Floods are recognised as one of the most destructive and costliest natural disasters in the world, which impact the lives and livelihoods of millions of people. To tackle the risks associated with flood disasters, there is a need to think beyond structural interventions [...] Read more.
Floods are recognised as one of the most destructive and costliest natural disasters in the world, which impact the lives and livelihoods of millions of people. To tackle the risks associated with flood disasters, there is a need to think beyond structural interventions for flood protection and move to more non-structural ones, such as flood early warning systems (FEWSs). Firstly, this study aimed to uncover how flood forecasting models in the FEWSs have evolved over the past three decades, 1993 to 2023, and to identify challenges and unearth opportunities to assist in model selection for flood prediction. Secondly, the study aimed to assist in model selection and, in return, point to the data and other modelling components required to develop an operational flood early warning system with a focus on data-scarce regions. The scoping literature review (SLR) was carried out through a standardised procedure known as Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA). The SLR was conducted using the electronic databases Scopus and Web of Science (WoS) from 1993 until 2023. The results of the SLR found that between 1993 and 2010, time series models (TSMs) were the most dominant models in flood prediction and machine learning (ML) models, mostly artificial neural networks (ANNs), have been the most dominant models from 2011 to present. Additionally, the study found that coupling hydrological, hydraulic, and artificial neural networks (ANN) is the most used ensemble for flooding forecasting in FEWSs due to superior accuracy and ability to bring out uncertainties in the system. The study recognised that there is a challenge of ungauged and poorly gauged rainfall stations in developing countries. This leads to data-scarce situations where ML algorithms like ANNs are required to predict floods. On the other hand, there are opportunities to use Satellite Precipitation Products (SPP) to replace missing or poorly gauged rainfall stations. Finally, the study recommended that interdisciplinary, institutional, and multisectoral collaborations be embraced to bridge this gap so that knowledge is shared for a faster-paced advancement of flood early warning systems. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Innovative Flood Risk Management under Changing Environments)
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