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Evaluating Hydrological Responses to Climate Change

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A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Hydrology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 May 2020) | Viewed by 58920

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Special Issue Editors

Dr. Lorraine E. Flint

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Guest Editor

U.S. Geological Survey, California Water Science Center
Interests: climate change, watershed hydrology, soil moisture, groundwater recharge, ecohydrology, climatic water deficit, water balance

Ms. Alicia Torregrosa

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Guest Editor

U.S. Geological Survey, Western Geographic Science Center
Interests: biodiversity, ecohydrology, coastal fog, climate change, bioclimate

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The impacts of climate change on hydrology are varied and have many implications for resource management, resilience and adapatation. Ample evidence can be found to illustrate ongoing impacts, in addition to projected increases in current trends that include longer dry seasons, shorter wet seasons with more extreme precipitation, diminished snowpack, and longer and more extreme droughts. The hydrological responses to climate change can be examined from a variety of perspectives, including field observations of changing habitats and influences on organisms, hydrological modeling of water supply and impacts on landscapes, and the response of varying components of the hydrological cycle, including soil moisture, coastal fog, evpotranspiration, baseflows, shifts from snow to rain, and changes in recharge versus runoff. This special issue of Water will present the results and discussion of investigations into many aspects of how hydrology responds to changes in climate.

Dr. Lorraine E. Flint
Ms. Alicia Torregrosa
Guest Editors

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Keywords

Climate change
hydrology
watersheds
water balance
coastal fog
evapotranspiration
baseflows
habitats
recharge
streamflow
snowpack

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Published Papers (10 papers)

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Editorial

Jump to: Research

5 pages, 195 KiB

Open AccessEditorial

Evaluating Hydrological Responses to Climate Change

by Lorraine E. Flint and Alicia Torregrosa

Water 2020, 12(6), 1691; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12061691 - 12 Jun 2020

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2163

Abstract

This Special Issue of the journal Water, “The Evaluation of Hydrologic Response to Climate Change”, is intended to explore the various impacts of climate change on hydrology. Using a selection of approaches, including field observations and hydrological modeling; investigations, including changing habitats and influences on organisms; modeling of water supply and impacts on landscapes; and the response of varying components of the hydrological cycle, the Issue has published nine articles from multi-institution, often multicountry collaborations that assess these changes in locations around the world, including China, Korea, Russia, Pakistan, Cambodia, United Kingdom, and Brazil. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Evaluating Hydrological Responses to Climate Change)

Research

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15 pages, 4220 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Improving Meteorological Input for Surface Energy Balance System Utilizing Mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting Model for Estimating Daily Actual Evapotranspiration

by Dakang Wang, Yulin Zhan, Tao Yu, Yan Liu, Xiaomei Jin, Xinyu Ren, Xinran Chen and Qixin Liu

Water 2020, 12(1), 9; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12010009 - 18 Dec 2019

Cited by 12 | Viewed by 3852

Abstract

Using Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) to estimate actual evapotranspiration (ET) on a regional scale generally uses gridded meteorological data by interpolating data from meteorological stations with mathematical interpolation. The heterogeneity of underlying surfaces cannot be effectively considered when interpolating meteorological station measurements to gridded data only by mathematical interpolation. This study aims to highlight the improvement of modeled meteorological data from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical model which fully considers the heterogeneity of underlying surfaces over the data from mathematical interpolation method when providing accurate meteorological input for SEBS model. Meteorological data at 1 km resolution in the Hotan Oasis were simulated and then were put into SEBS model to estimate the daily actual ET. The accuracy of WRF simulation was evaluated through comparison with data collected at the meteorological station. Results found that the WRF-simulated wind speed, air temperature, relative humidity and surface pressure correlate well with the meteorological stations measurements (R² are 0.628, 0.8242, 0.8089 and 0.8915, respectively). Comparison between ET calculated using the meteorological data simulated from the WRF (ETa-WRF) and meteorological data interpolated from measurements at met stations (ETa-STA) showed that ETa-WRF could better reflect the ET difference between different land cover, and capture the vegetation growing trend, especially in areas with sparse vegetation, where ETa-STA intends to overestimate. In addition, ETa-WRF has less noise in barren areas compared to ETa-STA. Our findings suggest that WRF can provide more reliable meteorological input for SEBS model than mathematical interpolation method. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Evaluating Hydrological Responses to Climate Change)

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26 pages, 8858 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Long-Term Variation of Runoff Coefficient during Dry and Wet Seasons Due to Climate Change

by Doan Thi Thu Ha, Mona Ghafouri-Azar and Deg-Hyo Bae

Water 2019, 11(11), 2411; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11112411 - 17 Nov 2019

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 5925

Abstract

This study investigates the future long-term variation of the runoff coefficient during dry and wet seasons in five major basins in South Korea. The variation is estimated from the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model outputs based on an ensemble of 13 different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs) in representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The estimates show a temporal non-considerable increase rate of the runoff coefficient during the 21st century in both RCPs, in which the trend and uncertainty of the runoff coefficient in the dry season is projected as higher than that in the wet season. A sharp contrast between the trends of the two components of the runoff coefficient is found during the dry and wet seasons. Over the five major basins, a higher increase rate of runoff coefficient is projected in the northeastern part of the Han River basin and most of the area of the Nakdong River basin. The spatial variation in the runoff coefficient change also represents a relationship with the change in the percentage of each land cover/land use type over 109 subbasins, where the correlation of the wet-season runoff coefficient is calculated as higher than that of the dry season. This relationship is expected to vary with changes in temperature and precipitation during both seasons in three future periods. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Evaluating Hydrological Responses to Climate Change)

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19 pages, 11056 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Climate Change Impact Assessment on Freshwater Inflow into the Small Aral Sea

by Georgy Ayzel and Alexander Izhitskiy

Water 2019, 11(11), 2377; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11112377 - 13 Nov 2019

Cited by 18 | Viewed by 4603

Abstract

During the last few decades, the rapid separation of the Small Aral Sea from the isolated basin has changed its hydrological and ecological conditions tremendously. In the present study, we developed and validated the hybrid model for the Syr Darya River basin based on a combination of state-of-the-art hydrological and machine learning models. Climate change impact on freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea for the projection period 2007–2099 has been quantified based on the developed hybrid model and bias corrected and downscaled meteorological projections simulated by four General Circulation Models (GCM) for each of three Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP). The developed hybrid model reliably simulates freshwater inflow for the historical period with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.72 and a Kling–Gupta efficiency of 0.77. Results of the climate change impact assessment showed that the freshwater inflow projections produced by different GCMs are misleading by providing contradictory results for the projection period. However, we identified that the relative runoff changes are expected to be more pronounced in the case of more aggressive RCP scenarios. The simulated projections of freshwater inflow provide a basis for further assessment of climate change impacts on hydrological and ecological conditions of the Small Aral Sea in the 21st Century. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Evaluating Hydrological Responses to Climate Change)

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18 pages, 3231 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Assessing the Performance of CMIP5 Global Climate Models for Simulating Future Precipitation Change in the Tibetan Plateau

by Kun Jia, Yunfeng Ruan, Yanzhao Yang and Chao Zhang

Water 2019, 11(9), 1771; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11091771 - 25 Aug 2019

Cited by 50 | Viewed by 4122

Abstract

In this study, the performance of 33 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) in simulating precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) was assessed using data from 1961 to 2005 by an improved score-based method, which adopts multiple criteria to achieve a comprehensive evaluation. The future precipitation change was also estimated based on the Delta method by selecting the submultiple model ensemble (SMME) in the near-term (2006–2050) and far future (2051–2095) periods under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results showed that most GCMs can reasonably simulate the precipitation pattern of an annual cycle; however, all GCMs overestimated the precipitation over TP, especially in spring and summer. The GCMs generally provide good simulations of the temporal characteristics of precipitation, while they did not perform as well in reproducing its spatial distributions. Different assessment criteria lead to inconsistent results; however, the improved rank score method, which adopts multiple criteria, provided a robust assessment of GCMs performance. The future annual precipitation was projected to increase by ~6% in the near-term with respect to the period 1961–2005, whereas increases of 12.3% and 16.7% are expected in the far future under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Similar spatial distributions of future precipitation changes can be seen in the near-term and far future periods under the two scenarios, and indicate that the most predominant increases occurred in the north of TP. The results of this study are expected to provide valuable information on climate change, and for water resources and agricultural management in TP. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Evaluating Hydrological Responses to Climate Change)

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39 pages, 21254 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Development of Threshold Levels and a Climate-Sensitivity Model of the Hydrological Regime of the High-Altitude Catchment of the Western Himalayas, Pakistan

by Muhammad Saifullah, Shiyin Liu, Adnan Ahmad Tahir, Muhammad Zaman, Sajjad Ahmad, Muhammad Adnan, Dianyu Chen, Muhammad Ashraf and Asif Mehmood

Water 2019, 11(7), 1454; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11071454 - 14 Jul 2019

Cited by 22 | Viewed by 3937

Abstract

Water shortages in Pakistan are among the most severe in the world, and its water resources are decreasing significantly due to the prevailing hydro-meteorological conditions. We assessed variations in meteorological and hydrological variables using innovative trend analysis (ITA) and traditional trend analysis methods at a practical significance level, which is also of practical interest. We developed threshold levels of hydrological variables and developed a non-parametric climate-sensitivity model of the high-altitude catchment of the western Himalayas. The runoff of Zone I decreased, while the temperature increased and the precipitation increased significantly. In Zone II, the runoff and temperature increased but the precipitation decreased. A two-dimensional visualization of the Pardé coefficient showed extreme drought events, and indicated greater sensitivity of the hydrological regime to temperature than to precipitation. The threshold levels of runoff for Zones I and II were 320 and 363 mm using the Q₈₀ fixed method, while the mean runoff amounts were estimated to be 79.95 and 55.61 mm, respectively. The transient threshold levels varied by month, and the duration of droughts in Zones I and II ranged from 26.39 to 78.98 days. The sensitivity of the hydrological regime was estimated based on a modified climate-elasticity model (ε_p = 0.11–0.23, ε_t = −0.04–2.39) for Zones I and II, respectively. These results highlight the sensitivity of the hydrological regime to temperature, which influences the melting process. However, it is important to establish thresholds for hydrological variables and understand the climate sensitivity of the hydrological regime of the entire basin, so that policy makers and water managers can make sustainable water-resource-management decisions for this region. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Evaluating Hydrological Responses to Climate Change)

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18 pages, 2618 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Impact Assessment of Future Climate Change on Streamflows Upstream of Khanpur Dam, Pakistan using Soil and Water Assessment Tool

by Saima Nauman, Zed Zulkafli, Abdul Halim Bin Ghazali and Badronnisa Yusuf

Water 2019, 11(5), 1090; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11051090 - 24 May 2019

Cited by 14 | Viewed by 6407

Abstract

The study aims to evaluate the long-term changes in meteorological parameters and to quantify their impacts on water resources of the Haro River watershed located on the upstream side of Khanpur Dam in Pakistan. The climate data was obtained from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projection (NEX-GDDP) for MIROC-ESM model under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The model data was bias corrected and the performance of the bias correction was assessed statistically. Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used for the hydrological simulation of watershed followed by model calibration using Sequential Uncertainty Fitting version-2. The study is useful for devising strategies for future management of Khanpur Dam. The study indicated that in the future, at Murree station (P-1), the maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation were anticipated to increase from 3.1 °C (RCP 4.5) to 4.0 °C (RCP 8.5), 3.2 °C (RCP 4.5) to 4.3 °C (RCP 8.5) and 8.6% to 13.5% respectively, in comparison to the baseline period. Similarly, at Islamabad station (P-2), the maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation were projected to increase from 3.3 °C (RCP 4.5) to 4.1 °C (RCP 8.5), 3.3 °C (RCP 4.5) to 4.2 °C (RCP 8.5) and 14.0% to 21.2% respectively compared to baseline period. The streamflows at Haro River basin were expected to rise from 8.7 m³/s to 9.3 m³/s. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Evaluating Hydrological Responses to Climate Change)

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27 pages, 9673 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on River Flows in the Tonle Sap Lake Basin, Cambodia

by Chantha Oeurng, Thomas A. Cochrane, Sarit Chung, Mathias G. Kondolf, Thanapon Piman and Mauricio E. Arias

Water 2019, 11(3), 618; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11030618 - 25 Mar 2019

Cited by 55 | Viewed by 15905

Abstract

The Tonle Sap is the most fertile and diverse freshwater ecosystem in Southeast Asia, receiving nurturing water flows from the Mekong and its immediate basin. In addition to rapid development in the Tonle Sap basin, climate change may threaten natural flow patterns that sustain its diversity. The impacts of climate change on river flows in 11 sub-basins contributing to the Tonle Sap Lake were assessed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to quantify the potential magnitude of future hydrological alterations. Projected river flows from three General Circulation Models (GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2-R-CC and IPSL-CM5A-MR) for three time horizons (2030s, 2060s and 2090s) indicate a likely decrease in both the wet and dry season flows. The mean annual projected flow reductions range from 9 to 29%, 10 to 35% and 7 to 41% for the 2030s, 2060s and 2090s projections, respectively. Moreover, a decrease in extreme river flows (Q₅ and Q₉₅) was also found, which implies there could be a decline in flood magnitudes and an increase in drought occurrences throughout the basin. The results of this study provide insight for water resources planning and adaptation strategies for the river ecosystems during the dry season, when water flows are projected to decrease. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Evaluating Hydrological Responses to Climate Change)

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19 pages, 3943 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Impact of Climate Change on Hydroecological Response in Chalk Streams

by Annie Visser, Lindsay Beevers and Sandhya Patidar

Water 2019, 11(3), 596; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11030596 - 22 Mar 2019

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 5227

Abstract

Climate change represents a major threat to lotic freshwater ecosystems and their ability to support the provision of ecosystem services. England’s chalk streams are in a poor state of health, with significant concerns regarding their resilience, the ability to adapt, under a changing climate. This paper aims to quantify the effect of climate change on hydroecological response for the River Nar, south-east England. To this end, we apply a coupled hydrological and hydroecological modelling framework, with the UK probabilistic climate projections 2009 (UKCP09) weather generator serving as input (CMIP3 A1B high emissions scenario, 2021 to the end-of-century). The results indicate a minimal change in the long-term mean hydroecological response over this period. In terms of interannual variability, the median hydroecological response is subject to increased uncertainty, whilst lower probability extremes are virtually certain to become more homogeneous (assuming a high emissions scenario). A functional matrix, relating species-level macroinvertebrate functional flow preferences to functional food groups reveals that, on the baseline, under extreme conditions, key groups are underrepresented. To date, despite this limited range, the River Nar has been able to adapt to extreme events due to interannual variation. In the future, this variation is greatly reduced, raising real concerns over the resilience of the river ecosystem, and chalk ecosystems more generally, under climate change. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Evaluating Hydrological Responses to Climate Change)

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17 pages, 3669 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Using a Hydrologic Model to Assess the Performance of Regional Climate Models in a Semi-Arid Watershed in Brazil

by Carlos A. S. Santos, Felizardo. A. Rocha, Tiago B. Ramos, Lincoln M. Alves, Marcos Mateus, Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira and Ramiro Neves

Water 2019, 11(1), 170; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11010170 - 18 Jan 2019

Cited by 24 | Viewed by 6022

Abstract

This study assessed the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of the Paraguaçu river basin, northeastern Brazil. Hydrological impact simulations were conducted using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for 2020–2040. Precipitation and surface air temperature projections from two Regional Climate Models (Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5) based on IPCC5—RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used as inputs after first applying two bias correction methods (linear scaling—LS and distribution mapping—DM). The analysis of the impact of climate change on streamflow was done by comparing the maximum, average and reference (Q90) flows of the simulated and observed streamflow records. This study found that both methods were able to correct the climate projection bias, but the DM method showed larger distortion when applied to future scenarios. Climate projections from the Eta-HadGEM2-ES (LS) model showed significant reductions of mean monthly streamflow for all time periods under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The Eta-MIROC5 (LS) model showed a lower reduction of the simulated mean monthly streamflow under RCP 4.5 and a decrease of streamflow under RCP 8.5, similar to the Eta-HadGEM2-ES model results. The results of this study provide information for guiding future water resource management in the Paraguaçu River Basin and show that the bias correction algorithm also plays a significant role when assessing climate model estimates and their applicability to hydrological modelling. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Evaluating Hydrological Responses to Climate Change)

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