1. Introduction
When peripartum patients are hemodynamically unstable or hemorrhaging, admission directly to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) rather than to the Maternal Fetal Ward (MFW) can be an obvious clinical decision. Well-appearing patients admitted to the MFW, however, occasionally become unstable, requiring transfer to the ICU. In the non-obstetric population, studies illustrate that patients requiring transfer from the ward to the ICU have increased morbidity and mortality [
1,
2,
3]. Continued concerns regarding the maternal mortality rate exist; hence, it is crucial to understand how to readily recognize peripartum patients at admission with risk for decompensation [
4].
Because early recognition of critical illness is associated with improved outcomes, work has been conducted regarding early warning scores (EWSs) in admitted patients [
5,
6]. Similar work has occurred in the maternal population, where there is some promise that maternal early warning scores (MEWSs) during admission can identify clinically declining inpatients [
7,
8]. The EWS and MEWS are used to identify declining inpatients, however, rather than prior to admission.
Other studies to identify high-risk obstetric populations at admission exist. These have sought to identify higher-risk demographic or socioeconomic groups, identifying medical and social risk factors associated with obstetric ICU admissions as well as describing common diagnoses at ICU admission [
9,
10,
11,
12,
13,
14]. Other scores, such as Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) scores and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores have been assessed mostly for predicting maternal mortality but not for predicting risk at admission of clinical decline [
15,
16]. Furthermore, almost all of these studies did not include a control group of patients to compare with those patients who were admitted to the ICU.
The Sepsis in Obstetrics Score (SOS) has been validated to predict ICU needs in perinatal patients, but this score does not apply to admissions for other causes [
17].
Our study seeks to identify clinical indicators and physiologic scores on admission that differ between peripartum patients requiring versus not requiring ICU upgrade. A machine learning algorithm using a Classification And Regression Tree (CART) was used to identify predictors associated with ICU upgrade. Since we anticipated smaller sample sizes in this study due to this specific patient population, the use of the CART model is more advantageous than the traditional multivariable logistic regression, as the CART logarithm can handle datasets with missing data without having to impute or drop cases like the multivariable logistic regression [
18]. Furthermore, the CART algorithm is not as restricted to the number of outcome variables, as the traditional multivariable logistic regression requires a certain number of outcome variables for each number of independent variables.
Interventions occurring upon transfer to the ICU, such as intubation and mechanical ventilation, were evaluated, as was the time to upgrade. In defining these predictors, it may be possible to identify the need for critical care services earlier in peripartum admission, thereby improving outcomes.
2. Materials and Methods
This is a retrospective observational study evaluating all peripartum patients admitted to an MFW at a quaternary care center between 1 January 2017 and 31 December 2022. At the study institution, there is an Obstetric and Maternal Fetal Medicine (OMF) service available 24/7 to provide care for peripartum patients. When a peripartum patient needs admission, the OMF team triages and accepts appropriate patients to the MFW. If a patient is admitted to the MFW, and there is concern that a patient clinically declines, the OMF team and ICU physicians coordinate the level of care. The OMF team at the study institution includes a critical care trained obstetric physician.
Peripartum patients admitted to the MFW from the study institution’s Emergency Department or another hospital’s non-ICU setting who were greater than 20 weeks gestation or less than four weeks postpartum were included. Patients transferred from outside ICUs or admitted directly to the ICU were excluded. Also excluded were patients with a gestational age less than 20 weeks or a diagnosis of abnormal pregnancy. The control group included patients who were admitted to the MFW unit but did not transfer to the ICU. This study was IRB-approved with a waiver of consent at the senior author’s institution (HP-00084554).
The primary outcome for this study was the difference between physiologic scores at admission in the control versus the ICU upgrade groups. Secondary outcomes included predictors for ICU upgrade and time intervals from MFW admission to ICU upgrade. Mortality was not an outcome because a previous study showed that the mortality rate for peripartum patients at this institution was too low to perform a sufficient regression analysis [
19].
Electronic medical records were utilized to collect patients’ demographic information, maternal comorbidities, clinical information at the time of ICU upgrade, and interventions in the ICU after upgrade. All data were extracted into a standardized Excel spreadsheet (Microsoft Corp, Redmond, Washington, DC, USA). Prior to commencement of data collection, investigators were trained by a senior investigator using sets of 5 sample charts, until data accuracy between investigators reached 90%.
Clinical data were collected to calculate physiologic scores, including the SOFA score, APACHE II score, and shock index. The Respiratory Rate-Oxygenation (ROx) index, which denotes a patient’s work of breathing and likelihood of requiring invasive mechanical ventilation, was also calculated. Laboratory values including the serum lactate level, white blood cell (WBC) count, liver function, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), uric acid, and international normalized ratio (INR) were collected. The time interval from admission to the MFW and the time to decision of ICU upgrade were obtained. Any missing data for physiologic scores or laboratory values were imputed as normal values. After we re-evaluated the patients with missing data, most of the missing data were the follow-up from initial, normal laboratory evaluations. Therefore, their repeats were deemed not clinically indicated by clinicians.
In this exploratory study, a sample size analysis was not performed due to the retrospective nature of this study and anticipated small population. All eligible patients during the time period were included. Descriptive analyses were performed to compare the data between groups. Continuous data were first examined for their distribution via a histogram and are reported as the mean (±Standard Deviation [SD]) or median [Interquartile (IQR)]. Categorical data are expressed as percentages. Variables were analyzed with Student’s t-test, the Mann–Whitney U test, or Chi-squared tests as appropriate. The results from these analyses are reported as the difference between groups and the 95% Confidence Interval (95% CI) of the differences, with control patients as the reference.
In order to match the control and ICU upgrade patients, propensity score matching was performed. Multivariable logistic regression using a priori defined variables (
Appendix A.1) for the need of ICU upgrade was constructed to calculate the propensity score for each MFW patient. An optimal algorithm with 1:1 matching of the propensity score without replacement was carried out, using a strict caliper of 0.1 instead of the recommended 0.2 caliper to ensure that individuals in the group were matched, since most of our matching criteria were categories and these categories are not as strict [
20]. Therefore, we opted for a stricter caliper so that our patient population could be more balanced. Information about the propensity score for matching patients is provided in
Appendix A.2.
To identify predictors of ICU upgrade, we used the Classification And Regression Tree (CART). The variables to be included in the CART were determined a priori (
Appendix B). CART is a machine learning algorithm that utilizes recursive partitioning to identify a series of dichotomous splits (ICU upgrade versus no ICU upgrade). The CART algorithm examined the interactions between the variables to provide the most sensitive and specific splits. The series ends at a “terminal node” with a final branch point signifying the outcome of interest (i.e., no further split is possible). The CART model then assigns the most important classification a “relative variable importance (RVI)” of 100%. Other variables are assigned subsequent to RVI, as a percentage of the most important factor. The RVI does not indicate the order of predictors’ appearance in the tree diagram, which demonstrates how predictors interact among themselves. The CART model was performed with 10-fold cross-validation, a minimum count of 3 patients for each node, and the depth of the tree of 20. Performance of the CART model was assessed via the Area Under the Receiver Operating Curve (AUROC) and the misclassification cost. The AUROC indicated the discriminatory capability of the CART model. A model with an AUROC value approaching 1.0 is considered to have perfect discriminatory capability. Higher misclassification cost would suggest that the CART model has a higher risk of producing prediction errors. A sensitivity analysis was performed using CART analysis and the dataset without imputation of the missing laboratory values to assess the implication of the imputation of the missing data (
Appendix C.1 and
Appendix C.2). The setting of the CART model for the sensitivity analysis was the same as the main model.
We also performed a multivariable ordinal logistic regression to assess independent variables associated with patients’ time interval from arrival to the MFM ward to the time of ICU upgrade. The time interval was ranked according to the distributions from examining its histogram. For multivariable ordinal logistic regression, the time interval from arrival at the MFW and to ICU upgrade was ranked from 0 (0–12 h), 1 (12.1–24.0 h), and 2 (>24.0 h). The results from the multivariable ordinal logistic regression are expressed with a correlation coefficient,
p-value, and 95% CI. A positive correlation coefficient is most associated with the lowest rank (rank of 0, or time to ICU upgrade <12 h), while a negative correlation coefficient is most associated with the highest rank (rank of 2, or time to ICU upgrade >24 h). Goodness of fit for the ordinal logistic regression was assessed by the Sommer’s D and Goodman–Kruskal Gamma tests. Goodness of fit increases when the values of these tests approach 1.0. The list of variables and the results for the ordinal logistic regression are provided in
Appendix B and
Appendix D.
The propensity score matching was performed with XLSTAT [
21]. Descriptive analyses, CART, probit logit regression, and multivariable ordinal logistic regression were performed with minitab version 19 [
22]. All statistical analyses with a
p-value < 0.05 were considered statistically significant.
3. Results
There were a total of 1855 peripartum patients who were admitted to the MFW. The number that remained on the MFW was 1742 (94%), while 52 (3%) were upgraded to the ICU (
Figure 1). The 1:1 propensity score matching resulted in 37 control patients remaining on the MFW and 34 patients upgraded to the ICU (
Figure 1). The mean age (±Standard Deviation [SD]) for patients was similar between the control group (29.4 years ± 5.6) and ICU-upgraded group (29.5 years ± 6.1,
p = 0.96) (
Table 1). All other demographic information between groups was non-statistically similar (
Table 1). The diagnoses at ICU admission are presented in
Table 2.
Patients who required ICU upgrade were associated with statistically higher median (Interquartile Range [IQR]) physiologic scores than control patients. The median SOFA score upon arrival to the hospital for control patients was (0 [0–1]), compared with ICU-upgraded patients (2 [0–3.3],
p = 0.001). The mean (±SD) of APACHE II upon admission was lower for control patients (3.1 ± 2.4) than ICU-upgraded patients (5.2 ± 3.3,
p = 0.004) (
Table 3). The effect sizes between the groups were already significant at the current sample size; therefore, post hoc power analysis was not performed.
Patients who upgraded to the ICU were associated with a statistically longer mean (±SD) hospital length of stay (HLOS), compared to control patients—HLOS 9 days (95% CI −14.3, −3.6,
p = 0.002). One patient (3%) from the ICU-upgraded group died, while none from the control group died (
Table 3). All survivors were discharged home directly from the hospital.
The most common ICU interventions performed for patients in the ICU cohort were vasopressors (32.4%), mechanical ventilation (23.5%), and any transfusion given (20.6%). Four (10.8%) patients in the control group were placed on a high-flow nasal cannula and one patient underwent Cesarean section. There were no other ICU interventions performed on the 37 control group patients (
Table 4).
3.1. Classification and Regression Tree Analysis for ICU Upgrade Prediction
The CART analysis suggested that a SOFA score of >2.5 upon admission was an important predictor for ICU upgrade, as 88.9% of ICU-upgraded patients had a SOFA score >2.5 (
Figure 2, Terminal Node 5). Similarly, SOFA at arrival was considered the most important factor predicting the need for ICU upgrade (RVI 100%) (
Figure 3). For patients with a SOFA score upon admission ≤2.5, serum LDH of 551 (U/L) was another cut-off value for the prediction of patients’ need for ICU upgrade (
Figure 2, Node 2). When patients had an LDH ≤551 and uric acid ≤5.5 mg/dL, approximately 83% (29/35) of patients were not upgraded to the ICU (
Figure 2, Terminal node 1). On the other hand, when patients had an LDH >551 (
Figure 2, Node 4), patients’ parity became important. Patients with multiple parity (>3) were less likely to be upgraded to ICU (
Figure 2, Terminal Node 4), while patients with parity <3 were more likely to be upgraded to the ICU (
Figure 2, Terminal Node 3).
Besides the admission SOFA score, the other top five predictive variables that were identified by the CART included APACHE II (RVI 61.6%), uric acid (RVI 58.4%), LDH, (RVI 45%) and parity (RVI 39.8%) (
Figure 3). The AUROC for this CART model was 0.67 (0.54–0.80), and the misclassification cost was 0.57.
The middle-ranked variables such as the shock index (RVI 30.7%), ROx index (RVI 28.4%, lactate (RVI 17.7%), and WBC (RVI 15.5%) may be clinically intuitive, as they may be considered toward the decision to upgrade patients to the ICU. The clinical implications for the lower-ranked variables with RVI <10% might not be clear, as some authors might consider factors with RVI <10% as not clinically significant.
Sensitivity analysis using the CART model without imputation of the missing laboratory values suggested that the SOFA, APACHE II, and LDH scores at arrival at the MFW remained the top five important variables (
Appendix C.2). The CART model without imputation of missing laboratory values had a similar AUROC as the first model, but with a higher misclassification cost.
3.2. Ordinal Logistic Regression Results—Time to ICU Upgrade
An ordinal logistic regression model was calculated to identify factors associated with the time interval between MFW admission and upgrade to the ICU. Chronic hypertension (coefficient 0.36 [1.08–1.91],
p = 0.01), tobacco use (coefficient 2.65 [1.69–119.38],
p = 0.02), and a higher APACHE-II score at hospital admission (coefficient 3.16 [1.29–427.3],
p = 0.03) were associated with a shorter time to ICU upgrade (
Table 5, full ordinal regression results found in
Appendix D).
4. Discussion
Efforts to reduce maternal mortality have included studies that determined indicators of peripartum risk during admission such as Maternal Early Warning Scores (MEWS). Socioeconomic and medical comorbidities are also known to indicate high-risk admissions, and Sepsis in Obstetrics Score (SOS) has been validated to indicate risk for ICU admission in septic peripartum patients. We are not aware of any studies that exist looking at clinical scores identifying high-risk admissions in the general peripartum population. Our study identified several predictors available at admission that were associated with the need for ICU upgrade. The SOFA score at admission was the most important physiologic score associated with ICU upgrade. Other variables predicting ICU upgrade included the APACHE II, uric acid, LDH, and parity levels. It took less than 12 h for patients with higher APACHE II scores to upgrade.
Currently, calculation of an admission SOFA score is not a typical practice for peripartum patients, but the use of a SOFA score in peripartum patients at ICU admission is associated with prognosis [
16]. This study suggests that using a SOFA score at hospital admission might improve the triage of peripartum patients to appropriate levels of care.
This study sought to identify clinical characteristics that were present both on admission and after admission to the MFW in contrast to previous studies that looked at demographic and clinical variables prompting transfer or admission to the ICU [
9,
10,
11,
12,
13,
14]. Furthermore, previous studies have not demonstrated the change in physiologic scores between MFW admission and ICU transfer. Because this study accounts for changes in physiologic and laboratory values available upon admission, it provides additional evidence to aid clinicians in their decision-making process.
This study also identified a history of essential hypertension and smoking tobacco as two predictors for a short interval to ICU upgrade. Having a history of essential hypertension and its association with a quick upgrade to an ICU is clinically intuitive as patients with history of hypertension are at higher risk for developing pre-eclampsia or eclampsia [
23]. On the other hand, peripartum patients with a history of smoking were also associated with higher risks for placenta previa, placental abruption, ectopic pregnancy, and premature rupture of the membrane [
24]. Thus, smoking predisposed peripartum patients to have a high risk of ICU upgrade due to bleeding or sepsis. However, since finding the underlying mechanisms to explain this result was outside the scope of this study, further studies with larger sample sizes are necessary to confirm or refute our findings.
Unexpected transfers to the ICU are associated with worse outcomes [
1,
2,
3] as is a delay of transfer due to a lack of ICU beds [
25]. Recognizing and identifying variables at admission can allow for improved triage of patients at high risk of deterioration.
This study contained well-matched control and ICU-upgraded patients to compare physiologic scores that may have indicated future decline. Most studies looking at critically ill peripartum patients do not feature matched controls. While these patients were well matched by age, parity, and diagnosis at admission, a limitation of this study is that other comorbidities were unaccounted. Many demographic variables, however, had similarities between the control and study groups. Another limitation was the retrospective nature of the data as well as the small sample size, yet, even with a small sample size, the major physiologic scores upon arrival were statistically significant. Thus, since there was already statistical significance between all physiologic scores, we did not perform post hoc power analysis, which is usually only performed when there is no statistical significance between outcomes. The small sample size did cause a few independent variables, including the LDH, to have wide 95% CI intervals. Furthermore, the CART’s AUROC was only moderate, most likely because of the small sample size and homogenous patient population. Future studies should involve a large sample size, multi-center and more heterogenous patients, and stricter propensity score matching. A large sample size also affords better pruning and increased specificity of the model by allowing a larger minimum number of patients for each node or terminal node. Such ideal studies will provide more definitive recommendations for the criteria used for upgrading peripartum patients. Lastly, this study may not be generalizable since the acuity and management at a single, quaternary center with a critical care trained obstetric team may differ compared to other settings.
This is an area that deserves further research, as it may reduce the morbidity associated with in-hospital clinical decline and ICU transfers. Specifically, studies with larger sample sizes and different hospital settings will aid in validating our model and specific admission physiologic scores as well as other variables indicating potential clinical decompensation. Additionally, looking at other clinical scores that are more easily calculated at admission, such as the qSOFA, may be beneficial. Furthermore, using automated software to automatically calculate SOFA and APACHE II scores has been reported to be feasible and have good discriminatory value for in-hospital mortality and ICU length of stay [
26]. This automated software reduces bias and human errors by minimizing clinicians’ data inputs. Therefore, using automated software to calculate physiologic scores, besides reducing clinicians’ workload, could help with resource allocation and triaging who should be admitted directly to an ICU bed, especially when ICU bed availability is low, or help better triage high-risk patients such as peripartum patients. Similar to the SOFA and APACHE II scores, the Modified Obstetric Early Warning Score (MOEWS) has been tested to compare its utility with the APACHE II score [
27]. In a retrospective study involving 352 pregnant women, the MOEWS score was associated with a higher AUROC than the APACHE II score for predicting severe obstetric complications such as pre-eclampsia, shock, and pulmonary embolism. However, the MOEWS score has not been studied as extensively as the SOFA and APACHE II scores in the peripartum population. Therefore, further studies are needed to validate the MOEWS score for peripartum patients. In contrast, the simpler physiologic score qSOFA was a poor tool for predicting maternal comorbidity in a retrospective study of 104 pregnant patients [
28].