4.1. Analysis of Spatial Correlation Results
Based on the economic distance matrix, this paper used the global Moran’s I index method to test the spatial correlation. As shown in
Table 2, the global Moran’s I index of the average concentration of PM2.5 in various provinces in China from 2003 to 2018 was significantly positive at the level of 1%; that is, there was a significant positive spatial correlation of PM2.5. Most of the Moran’s I index values of FD and GTI indicators were significant. That is, there was also a significant spatial correlation, indicating that the intergovernmental game also needs to consider the interregional interaction between FD and GTI.
To further study the local spatial correlation of the explained variable PM2.5, this paper drew a Moran scatter plot and a LISA plot to analyze the clustering characteristics. It can be seen from
Figure 2 that PM2.5 also had a significant positive spatial correlation (
Table A1 in
Appendix A shows the province corresponding to each number).
Figure 3 also show that PM2.5 had a significant high–high aggregation phenomenon. It shows that areas with severe air pollution had higher levels of air pollution in their neighboring areas, and the high–high concentration areas were mostly the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. It can also be seen from the distribution maps of PM2.5 in
Figure 4 that although the range of severe air pollution was shrinking, the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region and the Fenwei Plain were still heavily polluted.
4.2. Optimal Model Selection and Testing
Anselin [
38] pointed out the existence of a spatial correlation between the economic behavior of a region and that of other regions and constructed the spatial error model (SEM), spatial lag model (SAR), and spatial Durbin model (SDM) based on the idea of spatial economic units. These models examine the spatial dependence and spillover characteristics of the independent variable spatial lag term, the dependent variable spatial lag term, and the spatial dependence on geography when the independent and dependent variables’ spatial lag terms co-exist, respectively. Therefore, to determine the optimal form of the regression model, this paper performed LM tests on the model according to the method proposed by Anselin.
The test results in
Table 3 show that the four nationwide model indicators significantly rejected the null hypothesis. In terms of the eastern, central, and western regions, except for the robust LM (Lag) statistic, the rest of the statistics significantly reject the original hypothesis. It shows that there were spatial correlation terms and spatial lag terms in the set models, and the spatial Durbin model (SDM) can more comprehensively integrate the spatial correlation term and the spatial lag term. Therefore, the spatial Durbin model (SDM) was initially chosen in this paper. To further determine whether the SDM model would degenerate into a spatial lag model (SAR) and a spatial error model (SEM), this paper continued the LR and Wald tests, and the results are shown in
Table 4. The LR and Wald test results were both significant at the 1% level; thus, the SDM model was finally selected in this article.
Finally, the Hausman test was needed to determine whether it was a fixed-effects model or a random-effects model. In
Table 5, the Hausman test results show that the national and regional results significantly reject the null hypothesis; therefore, the fixed-effects model should be selected. After determining the fixed-effects model, we need to use a mixed significance test to determine further which fixed-effects model to use. The joint significance test results in
Table 6 show significant individual and temporal differences in the variables. Thus, considering the effects of intra-temporal factors and individual regional differences, the model was finally set as an individual-time dual-fixed SDM in this paper.
4.3. Result Analysis and Discussion
According to the basic model (1), this paper examined the direct impact and spatial spillover effects of FD and GTI on regional air pollution. The results are shown in the first and third columns of
Table 7. From the test results in the first column of
Table 7, it can be seen that the local fiscal decentralization significantly suppressed the level of local air pollution at a confidence level of 1%, with a coefficient of −0.214. The root causes were two-fold: on the one hand, the increase in FD allows local governments to have greater financial autonomy, and with the society’s call for environmental governance and the implementation of the concept of green GDP performance, local governments have become increasingly inclined to increase financial investment in public environmental products; on the other hand, according to the “voting with feet” mechanism of Tiebout [
39], the FD system can incentivize local governments to provide better environmental quality to obtain more citizen votes [
40]. In addition, local GTI significantly curbed local air pollution levels up to a 1% confidence level with a coefficient of −0.057. Green technological innovation promotes the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure and energy structure at a macrolevel, thereby reducing the emission of air pollutants [
41]. At the microlevel, GTI involves technological innovation of production and governance [
27,
42]. The former mainly achieved the intensive use of resources and the total emission reduction of pollutants through the green upgrading of production processes, while the latter achieved the improvement of regional air quality through the upgrading of pollution control technologies and pollution treatment facilities in production. In summary, Hypothesis 1a and Hypothesis 2a are verified.
The third column in
Table 7 are the test results of the spatial spillover effect of FD and GTI on air pollution. The results show that the spatial spillover effect of FD on air pollution was negative but not significant; therefore, Hypothesis 1b was not verified. The root cause was that due to the regional differences in resource endowments, industrial structure, and development demands, under the current administrative barriers and institutional constraints, the spatial spillover effect of FD was not significant. In contrast, the spatial spillover effect of GTI on air pollution was significantly negative at the 1% confidence level. That is, an increase in the level of GTI in neighboring areas will significantly reduce the concentration of local air pollution, and this shows that Hypothesis 2b was verified. It may be due to the positive externality of air pollution control. After the neighboring area has improved the local air quality through GTI, the area has shared the results of neighboring air pollution control due to the fact of air spills and has taken a ride on the neighboring air pollution control [
43,
44]. That is, the neighboring provinces of high-GTI provinces rarely choose to improve air pollution through GTI and mostly want to share the green patents and environmental management achievements of high-GTI areas [
45].
With regard to the correlation between FD and GTI behavior, this paper introduces the interaction terms between FD and GTI based on the benchmark model (1). The relevant estimation results are shown in the second and fourth columns of
Table 7. Overall, the direction of the impact of FD and GTI on regional air pollution has not changed. Among them, green innovation significantly suppressed the degree of air pollution at the 1% confidence level with a coefficient of −0.107, and its spatial spillover effect was −0.647, which is significantly larger than the local direct effect. In contrast, the local direct and spatial spillover effects of fiscal decentralization on air pollution were both negative but not significant. The test results of the interaction terms between the two (the second column of
Table 7) show that the estimated coefficient was negative and significant at the 1% confidence level. This indicates that the local fiscal decentralization under the guidance of green innovation behavior had positively promoted local air quality; therefore, Hypothesis 3 was verified. The root causes lie in the context of the green GDP performance evaluation system and the competition and incentives among local governments; the demonstration and leading role of green technological innovation will cause the provincial government’s fiscal decentralization expenditure structure to be more inclined toward green-biased technological innovation activities, which will be more helpful for improving the quality of the regional air environment. At the same time, due to the positive externalities of GTI and air governance, the higher the regional GTI, the demonstration effect will stimulate other regions’ financial investment in green technology research and development and ecological environment governance. This results in the innovation compensation effect offsets the compliance cost caused by environmental protection, thereby affecting the environmental governance performance of surrounding areas [
46].
4.4. Regional Heterogeneity Analysis
According to the analysis mentioned above, there is a strong correlation between FD, GTI, and environmental pollution in the global space. However, due to the unbalanced status of regional development, the local space may show an atypical situation that is different or utterly contrary to the global space. Therefore, this article discusses the regional heterogeneity between FD, GTI, and air pollution. The corresponding test results are shown in
Table 8.
(1) the local direct effects of FD and GTI on air pollution
According to
Table 8 (columns 2, 4, and 6), FD significantly suppressed air pollution in the eastern region at a 1% confidence level with a factor of −0.990, exacerbated air pollution in the western region, and had no significant impact on the PM2.5 in the central region. This means that there were significant regional differences in the effects of FD on air pollution. As the most economically developed region in China, increased FD in the eastern region was conducive to achieving air pollution control by local governments. Still, the central and western regions were just the opposite. The reason for such differences may be that the eastern region was the most developed economically, where environmental pollution is a prominent issue, and local governments are compelled to address the issue of carbon emissions [
27]. Compared to the eastern region, economic development in the central and western regions is limited, and environmental pollution is considerably less compared to their eastern counterpart as shown in
Figure 3. Meanwhile, awareness of environmental governance and the level of economic development is higher in the eastern region than in the central and western regions, making FD provide greater financial freedom to the eastern provinces to improve the environmental quality effectively [
26].
As presented in
Table 8 (columns 2, 4, and 6), GTI significantly exacerbated the air pollution in the eastern region and suppressed the air pollution in the central and western regions, which also means that there were significant regional differences. Although GTI aggravated air pollution in the eastern region to a lesser extent, it was also worthy of attention. We believe this may be due to the environmental rebound effect in the east. The environmental rebound effect refers to the fact that the GTI behavior reduced the unit production cost of the product and the resource utilization efficiency, which will make people expect the price of resources to fall, thus increasing the demand for resources [
47]. Moreover, the improvement in resource utilization efficiency will increase economic output, stimulate investment, further increase the demand for resources, and ultimately increase environmental pollution [
48]. After green technology innovations in the eastern region, they tasted the “sweetness” of GTI. To maximize the benefits, increasing investment in GTI resulted in a waste of costs and resources and ultimately increased pollution. In the western region, GTI is in its infancy. The initial results of GTI achieved a certain level of emission reduction, and as a result, air pollution was suppressed.
(2) the spatial spillover effects of FD and GTI on air pollution
From the results of Model 1 in
Table 8 (columns 2, 4, and 6), it can be concluded that: (a) In the central and western regions, the spatial spillover effect of FD on air pollution was significant at the 1% confidence level, and when the degree of FD in neighboring provinces increased by one unit, the local air quality deteriorated by 1.496 and 0.471, respectively. This may be due to the only-economic-growth development orientation and the “bottom competition” among provinces in the central and western regions [
49,
50]. That is to say, the improvement in FD gives local governments a more relaxed institutional environment, which makes them neglect environmental pollution control to stimulate regional economic development. On the contrary, the spatial spillover effect of FD on air pollution was not significant in the eastern region. (b) The spatial spillover effects of GTI in the central and western regions on air pollution were both negatively significant at the 1% confidence level, while in the eastern region, it had no significant impact. This shows that when the GTI in the adjacent areas of the central and western regions increases, the level of air pollution in the region will decrease. This may be because the public attributes of environmental products determine their significant externalities, which gives local governments in the central and western regions “free-riding” motivation in environmental governance [
51]. In contrast, in the economically developed and more polluted eastern region, the spatial spillover effect of GTI on air pollution was not apparent due to the central government’s pressure on local environmental supervision and its own need for green development.
(3) the moderating effect of GTI on the relationship between FD and air pollution
From the results of Model 2 in
Table 8 (columns 2, 4, and 6), we can conclude: (a) GTI in the west played a significant negative moderating effect on the direct effect of FD on air pollution at a 1% confidence level with a coefficient of −0.119. This means that an increase in local GTI raised the impact of local FD on improving air quality. (b) The GTI in the eastern region played a significant positive role in the direct effect of FD on air pollution with a coefficient of 0.107, which means that an increase in local GTI will weaken the environmental effect of local FD at the 5% confidence level. In terms of different regions, the effect of GTI on the relationship between FD and air pollution through demonstration effects in the eastern region was not satisfactory, which may be due to the impact of the environmental rebound effect mentioned above. Under the leading role of GTI, the eastern region’s fiscal revenues continue to tilt towards green technological innovation. Blind and excessive investment has resulted in increased costs and wasted resources, which eventually backfired and increased air pollution [
52]. In contrast, the western region was “competing to the top” under the leading role of GTI. The higher the level of GTI in a province, the demonstration effect will stimulate other provinces to invest in green technology research and development and ecological environment governance. In addition, the need to develop infrastructure and the relatively small degree of FD in the western inland regions limit its fiscal freedom to maintain an appropriate and reasonable level of investment in GTI. As a result, the air quality in the west region will eventually improve.