Semiparametric Time-Series Model Using Local Polynomial: An Application on the Effects of Financial Risk Factors on Crop Yield

Round 1

Reviewer 1 Report

The presented paper is actual, the importance to study area of agriculture results from the present risk with food sufficiency of the countries. The authors clearly described the contribution of the paper, mainly for decision making in such risky worldwide situation. Very important is also introduction, when the authors make a review of methods, using for precision agriculture, compared with methods, used in other sectors. Moreover, authors regarded during the research specifications of the Turkish agriculture. By this way, the results of the contribution could be used for the industries comparing. Consequently, authors determined shortages of used methods and approaches, trying to solve these in the paper, mainly from the view of obstacles to use the methods in the practice. Due to the mentioned, the goal of the paper is determined as searching of three mainly financial risks in the agriculture. To enable readability of the paper authors provide structure of the paper very clearly. The research is made in very long time horizon, which increase the use of the paper results.

 

Recommendation for the paper improvement:

In spite of the mentioned positive evaluation of the paper, I recommend several small improvement in the text, mainly:

• Do not use „Note“ in the abstract
• Correct the sentence at page 2, 1st paragraph „By therefore avoiding the disadvantages“ – not understandable
• Correct mistake at page 2, 2nd paragraph, last sentence – „mangers“ – to „managers“
• Remove spaces at page 3
• Due to the readability I recommend to use space between equations at page 4
• Please, mention source at figure 1
• I recommend to extend the discussion by comparison with results of other similar researches
• The conclusion repeats some parts from the paper text, I would recommend rather to state if the paper meet the goal, with what limitations and what could be future possible research.
• I recommend to add more references, mainly orientated to the financial risks area

I hope after these corrections the paper would obtain higher quality for publication:)

Author Response

Our answers are in the attached report.

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Reviewer 2 Report

Dear authors, the paper addresses an important topic regarding the effects effects of financial risk factors on crop yield. The paper is well structured, although some aspects can be improved. I consider this paper appropriate for acceptance after meeting few more suggestions:

Introduction: the Introduction comprises well the research aim and scope and provides the reader a brief introduction into the topic. 

Materials and Methods: I appreciate the development of the Materials and Methods section, although I don't consider relevant to redrive the methodology which is extensively used in the literature. 

Statistical properties and evaluation metrics: in this section the proposed LPE is described. Some descriptive statistics of the data could be briefly presented. I would recommend to add to this section the importance of this proposed method related to reducing the effects of financial risk factors on crop yield.  Remember the aim of the paper.

Analysis of the effects of financial risk factors on crop yield: the results are clearly presented, although some further comparisons between the AR and LPE could be presented for your case study. For example, you should better present why LPE should replace AR modelling when considering agricultural data, considering your outputs. Furthermore, some economical description of the outputs could be provided in both cases. 

Conclusion: this section should also include the limitation(s) of your study and future research opportunities. 

 

Author Response

Our answers are in the attached report.

 

Thank you.

Kind regards.

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf