A Study on the Prediction of Long-Term Carbon Absorption by Applying the Renewal Scenario of Forest in Korea

As global warming has emerged as an essential global solution, the role of carbon neutrality is required to respond to rapidly changing environmental policies. Forests are an important means for achieving carbon neutrality as they act as a key carbon sink, and, among them, forest management called afforestation is emerging as a decisive factor. However, although various studies are being conducted to enhance carbon absorption capacity, there are not many long-term research cases on afforestation. In this study, the cumulative carbon absorption for a total of 90 years from 1 January 2020 to 31 December 2100 was set as the baseline. Various changes were made according to the cyclical trend of the species and age classes planted nationwide, and various results were derived through the regeneration scenario. As a result of the study, the difference between the maximum value and the baseline CO₂ absorption was approximately 130 million t CO₂ when compared with the 90-year cumulative value. When converted into an annual unit, it increased by more than 14 million t CO₂. Based on the highest figures, compared with statistics from the Ministry of Environment’s Greenhouse Gas Information Center, it was confirmed that the forest absorption source, which was offset by 6.26 percent in 2019, could be changed by up to 8.74 percent. When analyzing the maximum figures from this study, depending on the method of afforestation, the greenhouse gases emitted by approximately 9.32 million passenger cars per year could be offset. In conclusion, among the carbon neutrality tasks that must be addressed at the national level, it is very important to establish long-term direction decisions and detailed plans for the forest sector, which is the core of carbon sinks, and a strategic approach is essential. Based on this study, it is expected that a more systematic direction can be presented for planning and implementing future afforestation.