Policy Evolution and Intensity Evaluation of the Chinese New Energy Vehicle Industry Policy: The Angle of the Dual-Credit Policy

Abstract

The dual-credit policy advances the process of vehicle electrification; however, few studies have reviewed the policy preferences and development trends of the Chinese new energy vehicle industrial policy at different stages from the development angle of the dual-credit policy. This article reviews the policy evolution of the Chinese new energy vehicle industrial policy based on the 2T model (time and types) and evaluates the policy intensity of different industrial policies by PI index. The results find that the Chinese new energy vehicle industry policy is divided into three development periods: 2004–2008—promotion policy and technological policy; 2009–2013—financial policy; and 2014–2020—charging infrastructure policy. The early policy preference for new energy vehicles was not found to be significant. Financial policies have significantly stimulated the development of the new energy vehicle industry, and the implementation of the charging infrastructure policy is late. The policy intensity of the promotion policy is the strongest, followed by the technological policy, and the policy intensity of the charging infrastructure is the weakest. The policy intensity of the financial policy will weaken in the later period. The promulgation of the dual-credit policy reflects the continuity and synergy of policy development.

1. Introduction

China is the world’s largest energy consumer, releasing large amounts greenhouse gases (GHG) into the atmosphere [1,2,3,4]. Carbon emissions related to transportation have increased to 10% of Chinese total carbon emissions [5]. The decarbonization of the transportation sector is imperative [6]. Electric vehicle technology has high hopes [7]. China, as the largest automobile production country in the world, is constantly exploring and adjusting its own NEV policies to facilitate the diffusion of NEVs.

NEV-related work began decades ago, in the 1990s [8]. The Ministry of Science and Technology established an Electric Vehicle Key Project under the National High-tech Research and Development Program (the 863 Program) in the 10th FYP (2001–2005). EVs, HEVs, and FCVs were included in these projects. The policy encourages enterprises to research and develop new energy vehicles. The “Automobile Industry Development Policy” was promulgated in 2004 to promote the coordinated development of the automobile industry. The development of the automobile industry into a pillar industry of the national economy by 2010 was the policy goal. After 2009, the number of policies increased rapidly. “Interim Measures for the Management of Financial Incentive Funds for Technological Innovation in the New Energy Vehicle Industry” was promulgated in 2012. Financial subsidies have promoted the development of the new energy vehicle industry.

The “Measures for the Parallel Management of Average Fuel Consumption and EV Credits for Passenger Car Companies (Dual-Credit Policy, DCP)” was introduced in 2017 to nurture the growth of new energy vehicles and effectively alleviate the government’s financial subsidy pressure [9]. The DCP included two related parts: corporate average fuel consumption (CAFC) credit regulations, and NEV credit regulations. CAFC regulation aims to research and apply energy-saving technologies, and NEV regulation aims to promote new energy vehicles. The effects on energy saving and emission reduction by the DCP have been confirmed [10,11]. A new DCP was introduced in 2020; according to the new DCP regulations, the peak time of the whole fleet’s greenhouse gas emissions will be 2026 [12].

China’s auto industry is going through a transformation period from traditional vehicles to new energy vehicles, and the vitality of industrial policies has been highlighted [13]. The policy encourages the adoption of electric vehicles and the development of electric technology. Shao et al. [14] divide the government’s financial subsidies into two stages: research and development (R&D) subsidies, and production subsidies. The R&D subsidy is for the design of new energy vehicle products, and the production subsidy is for the sales stage. The results show that R&D and the production of enterprises are highly dependent on policies. The main reason is the lack of market demand. It is difficult for enterprises to make profits. Dong et al. [15] used a COPA framework to analyze the policy evolution of the Chinese NEV industrial policy. Zhang et al. [16] evaluated the implementation of local industrial policies for intelligent connected vehicles using a multi-period difference-in-difference method (DID). The results showed that local ICV policies can significantly promote industrial innovation. The environment-oriented industrial policy makes the industrial layout more comprehensive and the industrial development more systematic.

However, neither the tax subsidy policy, the license plate restriction, nor the electric vehicle purchase subsidy policy can achieve the full popularity of electric vehicles [17,18]. The market adoption of NEVs still faces obstacles [4]. In particular, insufficient charging infrastructure is an issue [19]. There is an interaction between the market penetration of electric vehicles and charging infrastructures. The Chinese government has issued a series of policies to promote the construction of the national charging network, including charging pricing policies, charging infrastructure standardization, power system transformation, and incentives for the adoption of electric vehicles [20]. The “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan for Energy Development” promulgated and implemented in 2016 proposed to build electric vehicle charging facilities moderately ahead of schedule and build a “four vertical and four horizontal” inter-city electric vehicle fast-charging network.

Scholars have studied the development status of the Chinese new energy vehicle policy, and the policy system has been gradually improved. Different from the above works of literature, reference [6] categorizes and analyzes the new energy vehicle policies at the national, provincial, and municipal levels from 2010 to 2016. The Chinese new energy vehicle policy follows a planning–pilot–promotion–subsidy–development process. However, the study did not systematically analyze the infrastructure policy, and the time for the policy needs to be updated. There is a lack of evaluation of the intensity of different kinds of policies. Reference [21] studies the policy evolution of the automobile industry policy from four aspects: policy themes, objects, key processes of the industrial chain, and related measures. The results show that China’s NEV industry policy system is a process of initiation, initial formation, and rapid expansion. The policy highlights the role of technology in the development of NEVs. However, the study ignores the evaluation of policy strength and lacks a review of policy preferences.

The above review suggested that scholars study the evolution of industrial policy while ignoring the evaluation of policy intensity. Scholars evaluate policy effects while ignoring the evolution process of policies. In addition, the evolution characteristics of the dual-credit policy in the industrial policy are ignored. Different from the existing research literature, this paper studies the evolution process of China’s new energy vehicle industry policy from the perspective of the dual-credit policy. This study comprehensively reviews the location and evolution of the dual-credit policy of China’s new energy vehicle industry policy. The basis of the existing research goes a step further, this article evaluates the policy intensity by constructing a model to obtain the policy preference in different periods. The exploration of the policy evolution process and the evaluation of policy intensity in different periods have great significance for the improvement of the policy system.

This study develops two methods: the 2T model and PI index. The 2T model consists of two dimensions: time and types. The timeline is from 2004–2020. The policy types are divided into four categories: promotion policy, technological policy, financial policy, and charging infrastructure policy. This paper, based on the 2T model, analyzes the preferences and development trends of the Chinese NEV industrial policy at different stages, and comprehensively examines the evolution characteristics of the dual-credit policy in the Chinese NEV industrial policy system. The policy intensity of the industrial policies in different periods are compared and analyzed by PI index. The purpose of this study was to answer the following research questions:

(1) What is the evolution process of China’s new energy vehicle industry policy? What are the characteristics of the industrial policy?

(2) What is the location and role of the dual-credit policy in China’s new energy vehicle industry policy?

(3) What are the policy preferences of China’s new energy vehicle industry policies in different periods?

This research contributes to the broad policy evaluation literature and has theoretical and practical significance. Firstly, this article uses the development of the dual-credit policy as a clue to analyze the evolution route of the new energy automobile industry policy from the two dimensions of time and policy type, and summarizes the phase characteristics of the new energy automobile industry policy. The new energy vehicle industry policy, from 2004 to 2020, is divided into four categories. The dual-credit policy is introduced in the growth stage of the new energy vehicles and has the role of promotion and technical standards. Furthermore, the implementation of the dual-credit policy reflects the determination to reduce emissions and promote green vehicles. From the structure of industrial policies, the policy preference for new energy vehicles in the early stage of development is not prominent. The financial policies and infrastructure policies were implemented late, which weakened the function of promotion policies and technology policies. Financial policies and infrastructure policies mainly affect industrial development, and there should be an earlier time node.

Second, this article reviews the location and evolution of the dual-credit policy in China’s new energy vehicle industry policy. The dual-credit policy was introduced during the growth period of the new energy vehicles industry and has the role of promotion and the regulation of technical standards. More importantly, the implementation of the double-point policy reflects the determination to reduce emissions and promote green vehicles. The dual-credit policy reflects the continuity and synergy of industrial policies. China’s new energy vehicle development has experienced the market start-up stage with policy as the main body and the market cultivation stage with industry as the main body and entered a market development stage with users as the main body.

Third, this article evaluates the intensity of different policies based on the PI index. The promotion policy is the earliest, and the policy intensity value is the largest. The charging infrastructure policy has the latest time point, and the policy intensity value is the smallest.

2. Literature Review

The development and utilization of clean energy and the optimization of energy consumption structure are the keys to alleviating environmental problems and energy shortages [22]. The government has promulgated several policies to support the development of the new energy automobile industry and has set ambitious development goals. Since the implementation of the industrial policy, the development of the policy system has reached a certain level. For long-term policy development, scholars have completed relevant research. The following article will give a brief review of policy evolution and policy intensity.

2.1. Policy Evolution

Policies applicable to industries are constantly evolving in the process of industrial development, and the characteristics of policies presented at different stages are different. As an emerging industry, the new energy vehicle industry has a high degree of policy attention. The evolution of industrial policy has attracted the attention and research of scholars.

The Chinese government has implemented the NEV policy process of “plan-pilot-promotion-subsidy-development” [6]. In the overall development of NEVs, government subsidies and other incentives are extremely important. The consistency of China’s industrial policies and market performance can also prove this. However, government subsidies cannot achieve the sustainable development of the NEV industry [23]. The introduction of the dual-credit policy and the withdrawal of the subsidy mechanism indicates that the development of the new energy automobile industry has changed from policy-driven to market-driven. Automobile companies should pay attention to and solve the practical problems of consumers in adopting new energy vehicles. They should provide consumers with more product choices, provide a more compatible charging infrastructure, and provide a more complete after-sales service program.

China’s NEV industrial policy has gradually formed a relatively complete system, from investment, production, sales, and after-sales service to the entire industrial chain. Following new or changed policies, the strategic path of technological innovation and business model innovation changes accordingly [24]. The current industrial policy is biased towards downstream vehicle manufacturing, and less attention is paid to upstream raw materials and parts. The technological mismatch between upstream and downstream industries will limit the overall technical level of China’s NEV industry [21].

The above review suggested the promotion of the healthy and rapid development of China’s new energy vehicles. All stakeholders should work together to realize the scale effect of the NEV industry as soon as possible. Policy design should ensure the coordinated and orderly development of the upstream and downstream industry, and achieve better and faster energy and environmental goals.

2.2. Policy Intensity

Policy intensity reflects the government’s ambitions and needs in developing target industries, and policy intensity also represents the impact of policies on industrial development. Industrial policies are effective for the development of productivity and technological progress. However, the success of industrial policies incompletely follows static or even potential comparative advantages, and the development of policies is the key to its success [25]. Policy intensity is an external factor. The policy imposes conditions that may involve voluntary or compulsory measures and provides economic incentives to guide policy changes in a specific direction [26,27].

2.3. The Dual-Credit Policy

The effects on energy saving and emission reduction by the DCP have been confirmed. There are two main divisions of existing studies about the DCP. The first area of study concerns the operation management of corporations; the second part studies the impacts on market product structure and the emission reductions of the policy.

The dual-credit policy affects automakers’ investment in green technologies and market strategy decisions for green products. Zhao et al. [12] evaluate the impact of dual-credit policy and regulations on electric vehicle technology trends. The results show that credit regulation greatly promotes the short-term development of energy-saving and battery technology. The investment in energy-saving technology will lead to lower battery costs and higher new energy vehicle credits [28]. Liu et al. [29] discuss the current status and development pathway of Chinese major vehicle technology. The results show that supporting the priority development of miniature short-range electric vehicles can rapidly increase the market penetration of electric vehicles.

The dual-credit policy has a significant effect on extending the market penetration of new energy vehicles. The impacts on energy saving and emission reduction by the DCP are effective. Sen et al. [30] used the agent model to prove that CAFC regulations can accelerate the market penetration of the electric vehicle. The results show that 2023–2024 will be a significant turning point in the population of electric vehicles. The dual-credit policy advances the promotion of new energy vehicles, which is stronger than the new energy vehicle subsidy policy at the current level. The deployment of EVs shows better long-term decarbonization as EV ownership increases. Greenhouse gas emissions across the fleet will peak in 2026 under the new dual-credit policy [31,32].

The above literature review suggests that few studies have reviewed the evolution and development characters of the new energy vehicle industry policy, and there is a lack of reviews from the perspective of the dual-credit policy. The intuitive comparison for policy intensity among the different policies is lacking. To fill the gaps, this article sorts out the development context of the Chinese new energy vehicle industry policy from the perspective of the dual-credit policy, analyses the characteristics of policy evolution by the 2T model, and compares and analyses the intensity of industrial policies by the PI index. The policy evolution process and the evaluation of policy intensity in different periods have great significance for the improvement of the policy system.

3. Materials and Methods

This paper develops two methods: the 2T model and PI index. The 2T model consists of two dimensions: times and types. The timeline is from 2004 to 2020. Policy types are divided into four: promotion policy, technological policy, financial policy, charging infrastructure policy. We analyze the characteristics of policy evolution based on the 2T model. The PI index represents the policy intensity. We compare and analyze the policy intensity of the industrial policies by the PI index. In addition, several aspects are different from the methodology in the existing literature. First, the PI index model is a new method to evaluate policy intensity. Second, this study combines the 2T model and PI index, which enables a more comprehensive review of the current policy status of China’s new energy vehicle industry. Third, the method proposed in this study has time attributes. It can update data in real time to continuously review the policy status in different periods. It is a significant part of this research method.

We collect 105 Chinese NEV industry policies. Those policies divide into four categories based on the function of policies: promotion policy, technical policy, financial policy, and infrastructure policy. These national policies are formulated and pronounced by various ministries and authorities of the country, namely the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), Ministry of Finance of China (MoF), Ministry of Science and Technology (MST), National Development of Reform Commission (NDRC), and the State Council. All policies are at the national level: they are equally important. However, each type of policy has a different policy intensity. Policy preferences are heterogeneous at every stage.

The technical route for this article is shown in Figure 1. It consists of two systems. System 1 includes the framework of this paper, which consists of problems, the literature review, method design, data collection, model application, conclusions, and suggestions. System 2 is a cycle system. It follows the development of the new energy vehicles industry policy in real time. Although its data period is an annual year, we can design it to be a smaller unit of time. System 2 is a vital part of System 1, with an important function.

4. The Evolution of the Chinese New Energy Vehicle Industrial Policy

NEV-related work began in the 1990s [33]. The Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) established an Electric Vehicle Key Project under the National High-tech Research and Development Program (the 863 Program) in the 10th FYP (2001–2005) in 2001 [34]. EVs, HEVs, and FCVs were included in these projects [35]. Electric vehicles have low greenhouse gas emissions [36]. They have become an important direction of the transformation of the global automotive industry.

4.1. Analysis Framework

There are only two types of promotion policy and technological policy in the early stage of the new energy vehicles industry policy, as shown in Figure 2. The financial policy and infrastructure policy follow in 2009. This is different from Li’s seven categories [37] and Zhang’s four categories [38]. In this paper, these policies are divided into four categories based on the function of the policies: promotion policy, technical policy, financial policy, and infrastructure policy. This paper combines the policy types and time series evolutionary features. Chinese NEV industry policies are of a “steps shape” and divide the process into three steps, as shown in Figure 1: first step: 2004–2008; second step: 2009–2013; third step: 2014–2020. The dual-credit policy is introduced in three steps in 2017. Different years and different types for policies are marked in the box. The development line for the DCP in China’s NEV industry policy is marked by the orange box and the other three types of policies are marked by the violet box. The industry policies are superimposed, and different policies work together.

4.2. First Step: 2004–2008: Promotion Policies and Technical Policies

The Chinese government encourages and guides the development of energy-saving and environmental vehicles. The technical policy for hybrid energy vehicles and fuel engines is a vital development direction in this stage. The government encourages the research and development of new energy vehicles. However, there are fewer typical policies to support new energy vehicles in the early stages. Most industry policies focus on the improvement of fuel economy. China started the standard formulation of the automobile fuel economy measures in 2001, including “Fuel consumption limits for passenger cars”, “Measurement methods of fuel consumption for light-duty vehicles”, and “Automobile Vehicle Fuel Consumption labels”. These standards have built a relatively complete system of fuel economy standards. In addition, the government introduces technical standards for the vehicles industry. By 2010, the average fuel consumption of new passenger cars was more than 15% lower than the level in 2003. However, there is still heavy pressure to achieve the expected goals.

Some development problems have appeared in China’s automobile industry at this stage. The research and development (R&D) of the car is not prominent. There are fewer well-known car brands. The market-for-technology model is hard to maintain. Higher R&D costs fail to attract more auto manufacturers to develop energy-saving vehicles. New energy vehicles are still in the stage of technical reserves. The transformation of vehicle electrification is coming. There are no typical policies to support the research activity of corporations at this stage.

Before 2008, the Chinese auto-industrial policy had no policy preference for new energy vehicles. New energy vehicles require huge preparation expenditures, and investors must face huge market uncertainty. In addition, the government must keep the health of market rules under the policy. The uncertain market is a negative factor for decision-makers. Thus, the research and development of new energy vehicles are blocked. The growth of car ownership is the primary goal at this stage, and new energy vehicles have not yet received attention.

4.3. Second Step: 2009–2013: Financial Policies

Since 2000, the gasoline consumption percentage of transport, storage, and post has contributed to more than 40% of total industrial gasoline consumption. With the rapid development of the Chinese economy and the acceleration of the urbanization process, demand for cars will continue to grow. Energy stress and environmental pollution will become more prominent. Before 2009, the Chinese government issued many promotion policies and fuel standards, but the expected goals were not achieved. To expand the national promotion of new energy vehicles, at the beginning of 2009, the Chinese government launched a demonstration program for 10 cities, including a thousand vehicle deployments in 13 Chinese cities. The central government provides one-off subsidies for hybrid, electric, and fuel cell vehicle purchases [35]. By 2012, the total number of electric vehicles on the road had reached more than 10,000. At the same time, the “Interim Measures for the Administration of Financial Subsidy Funds for the Demonstration and Promotion of Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicles” was launched to ensure the success of the demonstration program. However, the subsidy for the demonstration program only covered the public service fields, such as buses, taxis, governmental fleets, sanitation, and postal service vehicles; the private vehicle market was excluded. Moreover, the subsidies were lower than the market expectation [39].

The “Consumer subsidies for individual purchase of new energy vehicles” was launched in 2010. The policy encourages the individual purchase of new energy vehicles. The local government allocates special funds to support the construction of infrastructures such as charging stations, the purchase of new energy vehicles, and the recycling of batteries [40]. The financial subsidy can stimulate investments to drive industry growth, and reduce the initiation period. The rapid growth of EV adoption occurs in this phase [4,18,41]. The industrialization and commercialization of Chinese electric vehicles nationwide are gradually realized [9].

The “Development plan of energy-saving and new energy automobile industry (2012–2020)” was launched in 2012. This policy had two key targets: to reach 500,000 units in the production and sales of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles by 2015, and to produce 2 million electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles by 2020, with a cumulative production and sales volume of more than 5 million units. By 2015, the average fuel consumption of passenger cars decreased to 6.9 L/100 km and the fuel consumption of saving energy passenger cars was less than 5.9 L/100 km. By 2020, the average fuel consumption of passenger cars decreased to 5.0 L/100 km. The fuel consumption of energy-saving passenger cars was less than 4.5 L/100 km. The research and development of energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles were conditioned to release the pressure on energy and the environment and quicken the transformation of the vehicle industry. “Management methods of fuel consumption labels for light-duty vehicles” and “Fuel consumption evaluation methods and targets for passenger cars” were introduced to improve the development and application of advanced energy-saving technology and make sure the fuel consumption target’s came true.

According to the “Development plan of energy-saving and new energy automobile industry (2012–2020)” and “Fuel consumption evaluation methods and targets for passenger cars”, the corporate average fuel consumption (CAFC) target evaluation system for passenger cars was implemented in 2012. The “Measures for the Accounting and Management of Corporate Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Car (CAFC-Draft)” was announced to obtain advice from all sectors of society. In 2013, the “Measures for the Accounting and Management of Corporate Average Fuel Consumption (CAFC) of Passenger Car was published by the MIIT together with NDRC, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Administration for Market Regulation.

4.4. Third Step: 2014–2020: Infrastructure Policies

In the first step and second steps of the NEV industry policies, most demonstration cities focused on public service fields for NEV applications, and the private-passenger car market was less involved. Thus, it was much easier to establish and manage the recharging infrastructure to meet the NEV fleet applications. However, with the penetration of energy-saving and new energy vehicles into private purchases, developing an extensive charging station network is becoming more and more urgent. Subsidy policies widen the deployment of new energy vehicles, but the subsidy incentive policies for new energy vehicles also bring extra financial burdens to the government and cause some problems with subsidy cheating. Subsidy cheating is harmful to the equal competition of the market and hinders the healthy development of the vehicle industry. Therefore, the Chinese government intends to transition plug-in electric vehicle support into a more supply–push approach, indicated by the reduction in purchase subsidies, the enforcement of restrictions on the corporate average fuel consumption (CAFC) rate, and the implementation of the plug-in electric vehicle quota policy [42].

In the third step, the special guide policy for recharging infrastructure is promulgated. The “Notice on Rewards for the Construction of New Energy Vehicle Charging Facilities” suggests that the reward funds must be used for the construction and operation of charging stations, the upgrading and transformation of charging infrastructure, and the operation supervision system of charge and replacement. It shall not be used for subsidies for the new energy vehicles purchase, etc. According to the “Development plan of energy-saving and new energy automobile industry (2012–2020)” and “Guiding opinions on accelerating the promotion and application of the new energy vehicles”, guiding the charging infrastructure construction of electric vehicles is integral. The “Guidelines for the Development of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure (2015–2020)” were enacted by NDRC in 2015 [43]. The charging infrastructure is key for the promotion and application of electric vehicles (EV), and it also is a significant strategic measure in energy consumption reform.

However, financial subsidies were withdrawn from 2016 onwards, step by step, and because of the exposure of several “subsidy fraudulent” incidents in 2015, subsidies reduced. The subsidy standard of new energy vehicles declined by 20% in 2017 and 2018 compared to 2016, and by 40% from 2019 to 2020. After 2020, the subsidy policy was withdrawn [44]. To advance the new energy vehicle technology and reduce the fuel consumption of traditional vehicles, the “Measures for the Parallel Management of Average Fuel Consumption and EV Credits for Passenger Car Companies (Dual-Credit Policy)” was introduced in 2017. The introduction of a dual-credit policy regime, reflecting the development of the electric vehicle policy, changed the initial design stage into the stage of early response and urged corrective actions to assess the policy’s effectiveness [9]. Chinese new energy vehicle credit regulations are a development of California’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) regulations. The policy requires that the numbers of the NEV credits to the conventional vehicle numbers from auto companies must be no smaller than the government’s requirement for the new energy vehicle credit ratio. However, there are significant differences between these schemes in policy design and implementation [3], as shown in

Table 1. Comparison between China’s NEV and California’s ZEV credit regulations.

Features	China’s NEV Credit Regulation	California’s ZEV Credit Regulation
Associated with CAFC/CAFE	Yes	NO
Scope	Nationwide	California and 9 other states
Applicable manufacturer	Production of traditional cars per year > 30,000	Average sales of traditional cars in the previous 3 years > 4500
Credit proportion requirement	2021: 14%; 2022: 16%; 2023: 18%	2018: 4.5%; 2019: 7%; 2020: 9.5%; 2025: 22%
Encouraging vehicle	BEV/PHEV/FCV	PHEV/BEV/FCV
Credit trading	Free trading	Free trading
Expiry date	Allowed to be carried over annually	Allowed to be carried over annually
Punishment	Administrative punishment: suspension of production	Financial punishment

.

5. The Evaluation of Policy Intensity: PI Index

To develop the new energy automobile industry faster, the government will formulate different industrial policies as support. Moreover, it can be seen from the policy statistics that there are differences in the frequency of different types of industrial policies. According to the mentioned frequency [45], the difference in the degree of policy attention reflects the difference in policy preferences at different periods. The difference in the frequency of industrial policy represents the different policy intensities of different types of policies. Thus, the policy intensity of policy $i$:

$$P{I}_i=\frac{P_i}{\sum P_i}$$

(1)

where $\sum P{I}_i=1$. Let $P_i$ be the number of policies $i$, $P_i=\sum P_i^t$, and let $t$ be unit year.$i=1,2,\dots ,n$. The PI index represents the power of industry policy, which is an accumulated data.

The policy intensity of policy $i$ in t year is:

$$P{I}_i^t=\frac{P_i^t}{\sum P_i^t}$$

(2)

Let $P{I}_i^t$ be the policy intensity of policy $i$ in $t$ year. Let $P_i^t$ be the number of policies $i$ in $t$ year, $i=1,2,\dots ,n$.

The growth rate of policy $i$ is:

$$\Delta \left(P_i^{t+1}\right)=\frac{\sum P_i^{t+1}-\sum P_i^t}{\sum P_i^t}$$

(3)

The growth rate of policy $i$ reflects the growth trend of policy $i$. $\Delta \left(P_i^{t+1}\right)$ is larger, so the degree of policy attention is higher.

The comparison of policy intensity between policy $i$ and policy $j$ is:

$$\psi =\frac{P_i}{P_j}$$

(4)

Let $\psi$ be the comparison of policy intensity: it expresses the strong and weak relationship between the two policies in the industrial policy and provides a basis for the design of the industrial policy system. According to Formula (1), $\frac{P_i}{\sum P_i}/\frac{P_j}{\sum P_j}=\frac{P_i\ast \sum P_j}{P_j\ast \sum P_i}=\frac{P_i}{P_j}\ast \frac{\sum P_j}{\sum P_i}=\frac{P_i}{P_j}$, $\sum P_j=\sum P_i$, $i,j=1,2,\dots ,n$.

The comparison of policy intensity between policy $i$ and policy $j$ in $t$ year is:

$$\psi \left(t\right)=\frac{P_i^t}{P_j^t}$$

(5)

The comparison matrix of policy intensity is:

$$H_{\left(i,j\right)}=\left[\begin{array}{ccc}1& \cdots & \frac{P_j}{P_i}\\ ⋮& \ddots & ⋮\\ \frac{P_i}{P_j}& \cdots & 1\end{array}\right]$$

(6)

The comparison matrix of policy intensity in $t$ year is:

$$H_{\left(i,j\right)}^t=\left[\begin{array}{ccc}1& \cdots & \frac{P_j^t}{P_i^t}\\ ⋮& \ddots & ⋮\\ \frac{P_i^t}{P_j^t}& \cdots & 1\end{array}\right]$$

(7)

This article defines the policy intensity and provides a reference for the adjustment and design of the industrial policy system through a comparative analysis of policy intensity.

According to the data from Section 3, we collected and analyzed 105 Chinese NEV policies at a national level, as shown in Figure 3. The policy intensity of the new energy vehicle industry varied greatly, the promotion policy promulgated early, and the policy intensity was high. The charging infrastructure policy was introduced late, and the policy intensity was weak. The policy intensity of promotion policy was the strongest at 0.35, and the policy intensity of technological policy is 0.28. The policy intensity of financial policy was 0.26, and the policy intensity of the charging infrastructure policy was 0.12. The span of policy intensity was 0.23, the policy intensity of different policies varied greatly, and there were also priorities in time.

The policy intensity of different policies was different in different periods, as shown in Figure 4. The promotion policy had the earliest time point and had the highest policy intensity. The promotion policy maintained a relatively high policy intensity for a long time, and the policy intensity value kept at around 0.3. The policy intensity of the technology policy was less than the promotion policy, but the time node was early. Technology policies ensure that the technical requirements of emerging industries must reach a certain level. In 2012, the value of technical policy intensity was 0.6, indicating that the policy intensity of technological policies at this stage was relatively high, and the new energy automobile industry had higher technical specifications and requirements. The policy intensity of financial policies was high in the early stage of industrial development, reaching 0.5 in 2010, and the change range of policy intensity was mainly 0.2–0.5. Financial policies have played a vital role in promoting the development of the new energy vehicle industry. The charging infrastructure policy was introduced late, and the policy intensity was low. The change range was mainly between 0.1 and 0.2. Infrastructure is the cornerstone of the development of the new energy automobile industry. The lag in infrastructure construction weakens consumers’ adoption of new energy vehicles. After 2015, the intensity values of various policies tended to stabilize. The policy system gradually took shape.

The growth and changes in policy intensity at different periods have different performances. The policy intensity increases of various policies in the early period changed obviously, and the growth rate was stable later, as shown in Figure 5. The increase in the policy intensity of financial policies gradually weakened from 2016 to 2020. This is a good sign of the healthy development of the industrial policy system. The financial policies stimulate industrial development, while also increasing the financial burden. The policy intensity of the promotion policy was maintained at a stable level from 2016 to 2020. The policy intensity of the charging infrastructure policy tended to increase from 2019 to 2020. The policy intensity of the technology policy had two small growth peaks, and it tended to be stable from 2018 to 2020. Various policies showed trends from strong to weak, which is in line with reality.

The comparison matrix of policy intensity is $H=\left[\begin{array}{c}\begin{array}{cc}1.000& \begin{array}{ccc}1.296& 1.346& 2.917\end{array}\end{array}\\ \begin{array}{cc}0.771& \begin{array}{ccc}1.000& 1.038& 2.250\end{array}\end{array}\\ \begin{array}{cc}0.743& \begin{array}{ccc}0.963& 1.000& 2.167\end{array}\end{array}\\ \begin{array}{cc}0.343& \begin{array}{ccc}0.444& 0.462& 1.000\end{array}\end{array}\end{array}\right]$. As shown in Figure 6, the policy intensity of the charging infrastructure policy was weakest. The policy intensity of the promotion policy ranked first, followed by technical policy, and financial policy ranked third. Considering that the industry has entered a period of rapid growth, the policy intensity of the charging infrastructure policy should increase. The financial policies should weaken, policy effects should weaken, and the market should play a key role. Promotion policy and technical policy maintain current levels.

The evaluation results of policy intensity show that the importance of a single policy is the same, and the importance of each type of policy is heterogeneous. Policy intensity reflects the frequency of various policies introduced by the government in a certain period. The higher policy frequency suggests the government’s policy preference. Different policy intensities also explain the impact of various policies on industrial development in different periods. The promotion policy appeared early, and the policy intensity was high. The technological policy emerged to standardize industrial development. Financial policies improve power into industrial advance and will play a vital role in a certain period. In the early stage, the absence of a charging infrastructure policy weakened the function of the other types of policies. The introduction of the charging infrastructure policy pushed the industry into a new stage of development. Charging infrastructure is a complementary product for new energy vehicles, and the charging infrastructure policy should have an earlier time node.

6. Conclusions

Electric vehicles are the key to solving the problem of energy crisis and environmental pollution. Many countries in the world plan to introduce clean energy vehicles into fleets. Electric vehicles are poised to transform nearly every aspect of transportation. In recent years, the Chinese government has promulgated a lot of policies, including the dual-credit policy. From the angle of the dual-credit policy, this paper reviews the evolution of the new energy vehicle industry policy. We evaluate the promotion policy, technological policy, financial policy, and charging infrastructure policy by a policy intensity model. Some conclusions are as follows:

(1) The evolution process of the industrial policy has the stage characteristics of technical policies and promotion policies, as well as financial policies and infrastructure policies. Early policies focus primarily on energy-saving, with fewer policies focusing on the promotion of new energy vehicles. Policy preferences for the new energy vehicles are not prominent in the early development stages. In the later period, policies are intensive, new energy vehicles are promoted and applied on a large scale, and supporting infrastructure is also started simultaneously. The industry has entered a period of rapid growth from the incubation period;

(2) The dual-credit policy reflects the continuity and synergy of industrial policies. The dual-credit policy, as the substitution of subsidy incentive policies, guides the healthy development of the new energy vehicle industry and reduces the fiscal burden of the government. China’s new energy vehicle development has experienced the market start-up stage with policy as the main body and the market cultivation stage with industry as the main body and entered a market development stage with users as the main body. The dual-credit policy continues to promote the high-quality development of the industry;

(3) The promotion policy is the earliest, and the policy intensity value is the largest. Technological policy standardizes industrial development, followed by policy intensity of the promotion policy. Financial policies provide strong power for industrial progress and play a vital role in a certain period. The charging infrastructure policy has the latest time point, and the policy intensity value is the smallest. Charging infrastructure is a supplementary product for new energy vehicles, and the charging infrastructure policy should have an earlier time node.

This study contributes some significant implications and further research opportunities. First, the article uses the dual-credit policy as a clue to review the evolution of the industrial policy of new energy vehicles. From a historical perspective, the dual-credit policy is not an isolated new policy. The results of the review of the dual-credit policy indicate that policy design should conform to the stage characteristics of industrial development.

Second, the results of policy evolution and intensity evaluation reveal that the time node of infrastructure policy is late, and the policy intensity is the lowest. In reality, charging availability has become one of the main barriers to EV adoption, and the late infrastructure layout weakens the effect of other policies. Therefore, to solve the charging problem, the research and application of charging technology and battery swapping technology need to be paid more attention to in the future.

Last, but not least, the article lacks the review and evaluation of provincial policies, and future work hopes to make up for this deficiency. There are many perspectives of policy evaluation, and more extensive exploration should be completed in future work.