4.1. Comparative Analysis of Time and Space Characteristics
Figure 3 shows that the financial systems of Zhangjiajie, Huangshan, and Sanya had an increasing tendency towards fluctuations from 2000 to 2016. To be specific, the trends of financial development in Zhangjiajie and Huangshan in 2010 were similar, while they were different after 2010. However, the financial development of Sanya displays a ‘W’ curve and less fluctuation compared with the performance of Zhangjiajie and Huangshan between 2010 and 2016.
From the perspective of annual change, the financial industries in Zhangjiajie and Huangshan were boosted rapidly by 20.5% compared with 2000, and 35.5% compared with 2003, attributed to the development of private capital in 2003. The expansion of the total amount of financial loans, the actual utilization of foreign capital, and the increase of the total investment in fixed assets results in the optimization of the financial development scale, industrial structure, and the overall efficiency of the financial development. The increase of finance for Sanya reached 0.468 in 2003 from 0.41 in 2000, while it experienced a drop in 2002 (0.358). This phenomenon can be attributed to the decrease in the total amount of financial loans at the end of 2002, with 14.01%.
Between 2003 and 2010, the finance of Zhangjiajie and Huangshan experienced a ‘decrease to increase’ fluctuation, while their intervals of fluctuation were different. The figure for Zhangjiajie decreased from 0.544 in 2003 to 0.309 in 2007, which can be attributed to the decrease of the financial interrelations ratio, insurance industry structure, external financing capacity, deposit and loan ratio, and savings and investment conversion. The finance of Zhangjiajie then increased to 0.531 between 2007 and 2010.
By contrast, the figures for Huangshan dropped from 0.447 in 2003 to 0.332 in 2005, attributed to the decline of the financial interrelations ratio, insurance depth, and the deposit and loan ratio. The figures increased to 0.763 between 2005 and 2010. Sanya experienced a series of fluctuations between 2003 and 2010, with ‘decrease, increase, decrease, and increase’ changes. Separately, the figures decreased in two periods (0.302 in 2003–2005 and 0.331 in 2008–2009) and increased in two intervals (0.333 in 2005–2008 and 0.357 in 2009–2010) as well.
In 2008, the financial crisis in the United States, evolving into a global economic crisis, not only impacted the Chinese financial industry, but also influenced the tourism industry. Four trillion yuan was distributed by the central government and stimulated a rise of the regional financial system in 2010. After 2011, China’s financial system began to suffer from money shortages, challenges from Internet finance, and other factors, and the regional financial development level system declined significantly.
To sum it up, firstly, the developments of finance in Zhangjiajie and Huangshan have been similar, with strong fluctuations before 2010. By contrast, the figures of Sanya experienced less fluctuation in the same period. Secondly, all of the three cities experienced two fluctuations in 2003 and 2010, with Sanya suffering less than the other two.
Figure 4 shows that the development level of tourism in Zhangjiajie, Huangshan, and Sanya has maintained an increasing trend, while they experienced drops in 2003 and 2009, due to negative effects of the spread of influenza and the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). The change of development can be divided into three stages.
In the first stage (2000–2003), tourism decreased because of the low level of development of the scale of the tourism industry, industrial structure, the input of industrial factors, and the traffic network. The horizontal comparison shows that tourism in Sanya grew the fastest, because of the comparative advantage of a high degree of international foreign exchange income, the tourism industry labor factor input, the number of public cars, the tourism contribution degree, the tourism aggregation degree, and the traffic network density. However, the comparative advantage of Sanya was caught up by Zhangjiajie and Huangshan.
In the second stage (2004–2012), tourism in the three regions increased with fluctuations in 2004 and 2009, and continuously increased between 2010 and 2012. Thanks to the large number of domestic and foreign tourists and currency income, the average level of development of tourism in Zhangjiajie (0.442) was higher than in Huangshan (0.262) and Sanya (0.281) in the period of 2004–2006. The number of domestic and foreign tourists and the currency income of Zhangjiajie during 2004–2006 were 1.4 times and 3.5 times of Huangshan, respectively, and 2.6 times and 2.3 times that of Sanya, respectively.
However, the average level of the development of tourism in Zhangjiajie was less than in Huangshan and Sanya in the period of 2007–2009, decreasing by 0.203%. The development of tourism in Huangshan increased in the period 2004–2008 (0.533), but it suffered from the negative effect of the spread of H1N1. The figure for Sanya increased (0.466) in the period from 2005–2007 and decreased (0.233) in the period of 2004–2009, because of the global economic crisis and H1N1. After 2009, the figures for the three regions all rose, followed by the increase of the index of the tourism growth systems.
In the third stage (2013–2016), the development of tourism in the three regions slowed down because of the lag effects of the economic crisis and the challenges of new economies. The indexes of the subsystem of growth of the tourism industry development scale and the industrial structure become slow, and some indexes such as the number of domestic tourism, international currency income, star hotels, and tourism labor inputs presented negative growth in 2013 and 2014. From the perspective of the region, the development of tourism in Zhangjiajie and Sanya decreased during two periods (2013–2014 and 2014–2015), and then increased annually by 20% and 8.82% to 0.822 and 0.683 in 2016, respectively. In contrast, the figure for Huangshan continuously increased annually by 3.6% from 2013 to 2016 (0.78).
4.2. Comparison Analysis of Coupling Coordination on Time and Space Characteristics between the Development of Finance and Tourism Growth
In order to further explore the degree of coordination and the relative development between the financial development and tourism industry growth, we used the above Formulas (1)–(9) to calculate the coupling coordination degree and the relative development degree in three areas.
Table 3 and
Figure 5 show that the coupling coordination degree of the regional financial development level and the growth of the tourism industry were the lowest (0.321) in 2000 in Huangshan. The characteristic of this period was mild disorder, suggesting that the financial industry lagged behind the development of the tourism industry and restricted the coordinated development of both.
From the perspective of the general trend, the average level of coupling coordination in Huangshan was the highest of the three regions, and this state maintained general stability, except for fluctuations in 2002–2003 (0.474–0.426) and 2004–2005 (0.538–0.530).
The coordination level in Huangshan was one of mild disorder (2000–2001), endangered disorder (2002–2003), force coordination (2004–2006), primary coordination (2007), the intermediate coordination (2008–2011), and good coordination (2012–2016). This suggests that the coupling coordination development in Huangshan had a stepwise rising trend.
From 2000 to 2016, the relative development degree of the financial and tourism industries in Huangshan was between 0.703 and 6.041 (the overall mean value was 1.408), suggesting the relative development was highly matched (V) with the mean value of 1.119 after eliminating the extreme value (6.041). This means that the financial industry and the tourism industry promoted each other well and coordinated with each other.
The coupling coordination degree of the financial development and tourism industry growth in Zhangjiajie increased with fluctuations. The degree changed several times in the period 2000–2004 (0.366–0.668, increasing by 82.51%), and in the period 2008–2011–2012 (0.56–0.681–0.66). Additionally, the coupling coordination degree reached 0.825 in 2016 and the coordination level also increased from intermediate coordination (0.797) in 2015 to good coordination in 2016. This shows that in the period of 2000–2015, the coupling coordination level of the financial development level and the tourism industry growth in Zhangjiajie was between mild disorder and intermediate coordination, as well as grudging coordination and primary coordination, for a long time. From 2000 to 2016, the relative development degree of the finance and tourism industries was in a low gear (VI), between 0.686 and 6.396 (the overall mean value was 1.622). This means that the development of finance was ahead of the tourism industry in Zhangjiajie, and the tourism industry’s contribution to the financial industry was weak.
Although the coupling coordination degree of the regional financial development and growth of the tourism industry in Sanya was higher than that of the other two regions, the degree was low (0.542) in 2000. Generally speaking, the coupling coordination degree in Sanya showed a frequent, but, small fluctuation trend. The coordination level changed from grudging coordinated (2000–2006 and 2009) to primary coordinated (2007–2008 and 2010–2012), and then to the intermediate coordinated (2013–2015), and finally to well-coordinated (2016). From 2000 to 2016, the relative development degree was high, between 0.676 and 2.503 (the overall mean value was 1.15). This means that the financial industry and the tourism industry promoted each other and coordinated with each other well.
4.3. Dynamic Relationship between the Development of Finance and Tourism Growth
In order to test the dynamic effects of the financial system’s development on the growth of the tourism industry, this study applies the Granger causality test, impulse response function, and variance decomposition technology to examine the short-term dynamic relationship. Before making the above analyses, the unit root test and co-integration test of each indicator should be carried out. The specific test results are as follows.
As
Table 4 shows, the level of financial development and tourism industry growth in Zhangjiajie and Huangshan passed the test at the significance level of 1%, 5%, or 10%, suggesting that the original data was stable. The raw data of the growth level of the tourism industry in Sanya was tested at the 10% significance level, while the original data of the level of financial development is unstable because it failed to pass the test. After applying first-order difference, the level of financial development and tourism industry growth in Sanya passed the test at a 1% significance level, which suggests that the level of regional financial development and tourism growth was integrated of order (i.e., I), Formula (1). From the above analysis, it can be determined that the time series of the financial development and the growth level of the tourism industry is a stationary sequence or integrated in an order, which can be further tested by co-integration.
The results of the co-integration and the largest eigenvalue test in the three regions reject the null hypothesis at the 5% significance level (
Table 5). This means that there exists co-integration relationships between financial development and the tourism industry.
Although there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the financial developments (UF) and the growth of the tourism industry level (UT), the Granger causality test should be used to determine the causal relationship. This study sets the order of the maximum number of the test values as the cut-off point to determine the causal relationship (
Table 6). The results of testing show that finance contributes s to tourism at the 5% level in Zhangjiajie, rejecting the null hypothesis (UT is not the Granger cause of UF). This means that finance development will improve tourism growth, but the tourism cannot contribute to the financial system in Zhangjiajie. For Zhangjiajie, financial institutions should support the development of tourism as the tourism industry needs a large amount of investment in the growing process. However, the high proportion of loans (81.3%) in the medium- and long-term leads to slow capital recollection and a lagging effect of tourism on financial development. The results of testing show that finance and tourism can positively influence each other at the 5% level in Huangshan and Sanya, suggesting that the relationship of finance and tourism is one of reciprocal causation.
In order to explore the short-term interaction between finance and tourism in the three cities, impulse response function was applied (
Figure 6,
Figure 7 and
Figure 8).
Figure 6 shows that after the first lagging period, tourism positively influenced finance in Zhangjiajie. This positive effect reached a peak in the third period and then increased and remained stable after the ninth period
Figure 6A. Meanwhile, after the first lagging period, finance positively influenced tourism and reached a peak in the second period, and then decreased and remained stable in the ninth period
Figure 6B.
Figure 7 shows that tourism negatively influenced finance in Huangshan and that the development of tourism reached the lowest point in the second period. After that, the development of tourism decreased
Figure 7A. The finance positively influenced tourism in the lagging period and maintained an increasing trend. This influence reached a peak in the second period and then dropped and remained stable in the ninth period
Figure 7B. This indicated that finance positively influenced tourism with positive–negative effects, while tourism positively influenced finance over the long-term.
Figure 8 shows that tourism negatively influenced finance and this effect decreased to the lowest point in the second period in Sanya. During this process, a positive–negative effect existed and remained stable in the ninth period. Finance positively influenced tourism in the first period and negatively influenced tourism in the second period. This negative effect persisted until the second period, and then turned to fluctuation and reached stability in the seventh period. This indicated that finance had a long-term and positive–negative effect on tourism, while tourism had a short-term and positive–negative effect on finance.
Variance decomposition can help us understand the degree of interaction between financial development and tourism industry growth (
Table 7).
Table 7 shows that the tourism industry growth was fully affected by the fluctuation in the first period. The effect of the financial development on the tourism industry growth appeared in the second period (the effect in Sanya was the most, to 38.865%). After the second period, the effect decreased slowly and remained stable at around 45% in the seventh period. This means that the financial development had a great contribution to the improvement of the tourism industry’s growth in the short term.
The effects of finance on tourism showed an increasing trend and then a decreasing trend and finally a stable trend in Zhangjiajie. The biggest contribution was in the fourth period, reaching 62.555%. The effects of finance on tourism became strong in the second period and maintained stability in the fifth period (62%). This indicated that the effect of finance on tourism was strong in Zhangjiajie. Compared with the other the two regions, the effects of finance on tourism in Huangshan were the weakest. In the eighth period, the effect remained stable, at around 30%. This indicated that finance was not the main driver of development of the tourism in Huangshan.
The results of the variance decomposition show that the development of finance was influenced by tourism in the first period. To be specific, the finance of Sanya was influenced by 8.638%, the finance of Zhangjiajie was influenced by 2.318%, and the finance of Huangshan was influenced by 0.789%. However, since the second period, tourism was influenced by finance in Huangshan by 25.271%, with increasing fluctuation in the short-term and a stable increasing trend after the sixth period. In the third period, finance was influenced by tourism in Zhangjiajie, remaining stable at 13%. Additionally, the influence of tourism on finance in Sanya remained stable, increasing at around 14%.