Evaluation Method of Synergy Degree for Comprehensive Benefits System of Hydropower Projects
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Synergy Evaluation Method
2.1. Construction of Complex System and Index System
2.2. Determination of the Weights
2.2.1. Subjective Weight
2.2.2. Objective Weight
2.2.3. Compound Weight
2.3. Evaluation Method Based on the Synergy Degree
2.3.1. Order Degree of Subsystems
2.3.2. Synergy Degree of a Complex System
2.4. Computing Steps
3. Case Study
3.1. Project Specifications
3.2. Benefits Index System and Weights
3.3. Analysis of the Order Degree of Subsystems
- The order degree of the economic benefits subsystem increases after the first drop in 2015 and rises again in 2018. Owing to the interweaving of many factors, such as seasonal power generation (2013–2014), higher management costs (2015–2018), the rapid development of the regional economy, and the adjustment of industrial structure, the order degree of economic benefits subsystem fails to continue to be in a good condition.
- The order degree of the social benefits subsystem keeps rising from 2011 to 2018, with a significant improvement in the order degree of the social benefits subsystem after 2015. The mutual restriction of each factor, such as the contribution rate of taxation and the direct and indirect employment effect, led to the consistent growth of the social benefits subsystem.
- The ecological benefits subsystem rises sharply in 2013, and its order maintains a stable state from 2013, in a range of 0.7 and 0.8. During the early period of operation from 2010 to 2011, the soil and water loss caused by the dam construction is under management, and its impact on the quality of the ecosystem and the local microclimate has not been fully manifested. Therefore, the ecological benefits subsystem is in a low state in the early stage.
3.4. Analysis of the Synergy Degree of Subsystems
- The order degrees of all subsystems at the time Tn are greater than their order degree at the initial time T1 (2011), indicating that the complex system is in a state of synergistic evolution. The synergy degree fluctuates between 0.053 and 0.342. Its level belongs to “Bottom synergy” between 2011 and 2016, then develops into “Moderate synergy” from 2017 to 2018, showing an “N-shaped” trend: the synergy degree shows an upward trend at first, but it drops for the first time in 2014 and then rises again in 2017.
- Although the economic–social benefits subsystem has gradually entered a better development state, due to the low level of social–ecological benefits the synergy degree of the complex system is still low. The reason is that the SG dam has the characteristics of single investment channels, low investment efficiency, unstable power generation, dynamic income changes, immature management, and so on. The interactions among these factors will inevitably lead to large fluctuations in the economic, social, and ecological benefits at the initial stage of dam operation. Therefore, decision-makers need to put forward a scientific management program to solve the uneven synergistic relationships of different benefits.
4. Conclusions
- Starting with the Synergy theory, this article combines the concept of synergy with the field of the comprehensive benefits of the hydropower project and regards it as a complex system, which is subdivided into three subsystems: economic, social, and ecological benefits. Based on the complex system, this paper identifies the indexes that affect the comprehensive benefits of a hydropower project, which establishes the evaluation system.
- Both subjective weight and objective weight have their advantages and disadvantages. On these bases, the non-linear model and Lagrange function are introduced to determine the compound weight in the evaluation process, which can take both advantages of subjective experience and the objective facts to avoid evaluation bias caused by an imperfect index system.
- Synergy theory can explain the degree of coordinated development of internal subsystems and elements. A synergy-degree evaluation method for hydropower projects, comprising the order degree of subsystems and the synergy degree of the complex system, is proposed by geometric average and weighted sum methods to analyze the synergistic relationships among the subsystems.
- The case study conducted a synergy evaluation on the SG dam from 2011 to 2018 and showed that although the SG dam has good economic, social, and ecological benefits individually, the synergy degree of a complex system is in a low and unbalanced state due to the low synergetic effects between the social and ecological benefit subsystems. Results can provide some advice for the management of each benefit subsystem of hydropower projects.
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
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n | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RI | 0.52 | 0.89 | 1.12 | 1.26 | 1.36 | 1.41 | 1.46 | 1.49 | 1.52 | 1.54 | 1.56 |
Level of Synergy Degree | Synergy Degree |
---|---|
Bottom synergy | 0 < M ≤ 0.25 |
Moderately synergy | 0.25 < M ≤ 0.5 |
Highly synergy | 0.5 < M ≤ 0.75 |
Extremely synergy | 0.75 < M ≤ 1 |
System | Subsystem | Indexes | Instructions |
---|---|---|---|
Comprehensive benefits system A | Economic benefits B1 | The ratio of operating cost to revenue C1 | Negative: Percentage of the total annual cost to a total annual income |
Earnings power of the real concept C2 | Positive: Total annual profits as a proportion of total investments | ||
The annual capacity of electric production C3 | Positive: Production capacity of hydropower projects | ||
GDP arising from hydropower projects C4 | Positive: GDP added value of hydropower projects, calculated by income method, is an additive combination of the labor compensation, net taxed on production, depreciation of fixed assets and earning surplus. | ||
Stimulating effect from hydropower projects on the economy C5 | Positive: GDP generated by hydropower projects as a proportion of the added value of the industrial industry | ||
Social benefits B2 | Fiscal contribution C6 | Positive: The tax revenue contribution from hydropower projects | |
Urbanization rate C7 | Positive: Proportion of urban population in the location of hydropower projects to the total population | ||
The direct and indirect employment effect C8 | Positive: The number of new jobs created by hydropower projects, provided by the enterprise of the SG dam. | ||
Per capita disposable income C9 | Positive: Per capita disposable income of residents in the locality of hydropower projects | ||
Ecological benefits B3 | Water loss and soil erosion C10 | Negative: Soil erosion in areas directly affected by hydropower projects | |
Climatic regulation C11 | Positive: Rainfall per year from June to September at the site of hydropower projects | ||
Quality of ecosystems C12 | Positive: Ratio of natural resources such as forest thickets to total ecosystem area in the range of the SG dam |
System | Subsystem | Index | Subject Weight | Objective Weight | Compound Weight |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Comprehensive benefits system | Economic benefits | The ratio of operating cost to revenue | 0.097 | 0.23 | 0.162 |
Earnings power of the real concept | 0.146 | 0.146 | 0.146 | ||
The annual capacity of electric production | 0.177 | 0.102 | 0.140 | ||
GDP arising from hydropower projects | 0.196 | 0.162 | 0.180 | ||
Stimulating effect from hydropower projects on the economy | 0.384 | 0.36 | 0.372 | ||
Social benefits | Fiscal contribution | 0.167 | 0.164 | 0.166 | |
Urbanization rate | 0.167 | 0.269 | 0.218 | ||
The direct and indirect employment effect | 0.333 | 0.325 | 0.329 | ||
Per capita disposable income | 0.333 | 0.242 | 0.288 | ||
Ecological benefits | Water loss and soil erosion | 0.333 | 0.727 | 0.496 | |
Climatic regulation | 0.333 | 0.115 | 0.243 | ||
Quality of ecosystems | 0.333 | 0.158 | 0.261 |
Year | Economic Benefits Subsystem | Social Benefits Subsystem | Ecological Benefits Subsystem |
---|---|---|---|
2011 | 0.042 | 0.185 | 0.329 |
2012 | 0.768 | 0.216 | 0.355 |
2013 | 0.768 | 0.334 | 0.715 |
2014 | 0.823 | 0.353 | 0.718 |
2015 | 0.482 | 0.366 | 0.721 |
2016 | 0.433 | 0.523 | 0.725 |
2017 | 0.364 | 0.565 | 0.736 |
2018 | 0.405 | 0.601 | 0.741 |
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Zhou, X.; Chen, C.; Chen, J.; Li, Y.; Lu, X.; Li, J.; Wang, Y. Evaluation Method of Synergy Degree for Comprehensive Benefits System of Hydropower Projects. Sustainability 2021, 13, 10770. https://doi.org/10.3390/su131910770
Zhou X, Chen C, Chen J, Li Y, Lu X, Li J, Wang Y. Evaluation Method of Synergy Degree for Comprehensive Benefits System of Hydropower Projects. Sustainability. 2021; 13(19):10770. https://doi.org/10.3390/su131910770
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhou, Xuan, Chen Chen, Jiankang Chen, Yanling Li, Xiang Lu, Junru Li, and Yongfei Wang. 2021. "Evaluation Method of Synergy Degree for Comprehensive Benefits System of Hydropower Projects" Sustainability 13, no. 19: 10770. https://doi.org/10.3390/su131910770
APA StyleZhou, X., Chen, C., Chen, J., Li, Y., Lu, X., Li, J., & Wang, Y. (2021). Evaluation Method of Synergy Degree for Comprehensive Benefits System of Hydropower Projects. Sustainability, 13(19), 10770. https://doi.org/10.3390/su131910770