Research on Financial Early Warning Based on Combination Forecasting Model
Round 1
Reviewer 1 Report
The issue analyzed is a complex one that requires careful analytical examination. The paper lacks such analytical examination as mentioned in the report.
Methods:
0) In the methodology section, the author(s) need to justify the use of this method. It seems reasonable but Authors have to better justify it in a comparative perspective also well describing the level of analysis. For example, it is well known that in this type of regression: i) endogeneity is a crucial point; ii) multicollinearity among regressors is another crucial point. Authors should better justify their approach also dealing at least with these two topics.
1) The robustness of the analysis depends on the data and this approach is criticized by researchers and scholars because the process of coding data and counting frequencies of data. Authors should better describe their approach underlining how they solve these criticisms, for example using different sample.
Results:
2) Authors should better draw conclusions and generalizations where possible.
Interpretation:
3) Authors should rewrite the results discussion according to the points: 0, 1 and 2. Further, they should better interpret results carefully providing more robust trends and patterns.
Other comments:
A deeper review of the literature on forecasting is required., see for example:
Bigerna, S., D’Errico, M. C., & Polinori, P. (2021). Energy security and RES penetration in a growing decarbonized economy in the era of the 4th industrial revolution. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 166, 120648.
Furthermore:
Research limitations have to be described.
The author(s) need to elaborate on the economic stemming from this work.
Discuss any further / future research based on this work.
In some places, some proofreading is required.
Author Response
Methods:
0) In the methodology section, the author(s) need to justify the use of this method. It seems reasonable but Authors have to better justify it in a comparative perspective also well describing the level of analysis.
It has been added at the end of the Methods. (P6)
1) The robustness of the analysis depends on the data and this approach is criticized by researchers and scholars because the process of coding data and counting frequencies of data. Authors should better describe their approach underlining how they solve these criticisms, for example using different sample.
Due to the limitation of some objective factors, the researchers only judge the financial crisis of the enterprise based on the financial data of the enterprise, which is obviously not comprehensive enough. By comparing a large number of related studies, the researchers selected three forecasting methods in order to further improve the accuracy of the financial early warning model. Therefore, the researchers mentioned in the Discussion section: It is recommended to introduce experiments with non-financial indicators in the follow-up research to improve the reference value of the research. (P13)
Results:
2) Authors should better draw conclusions and generalizations where possible.
In the original text, the title of Chapter 4 "Results" was changed to "Data analysis". Added Chapter 5 "Results" to summarize and summarize the research results. (P11-12)
Interpretation:
3) Authors should rewrite the results discussion according to the points: 0, 1 and 2. Further, they should better interpret results carefully providing more robust trends and patterns.
Conclusions have been rewritten. (P13-15)
Other comments: A deeper review of the literature on forecasting is required.
References updated. (P15-17)
Furthermore:
Research limitations have to be described.
The author(s) need to elaborate on the economic stemming from this work.
Discuss any further / future research based on this work.
In some places, some proofreading is required.
"Research limitations" Added. (P12)
“the economic stemming” has been added at the end of the Introduction. (P2)
"Discussion" added. (P13)
Reviewer 2 Report
This research focuses on using the combined forecasting method to establish a more comprehensive financial early warning model for Chinese companies. However, the paper needs to be improved in many aspects. I cannot accept it for publication in current form. My recommendations are as follows.
1. Abstract: What means BP? Before using the abbreviations, just define them between brackets first time when used.
2. Please work more on practical implications of the results. At the end of the introduction, it's just not clear why we need the authors' study, why it's important and interesting to read their work, and what we are really going to learn.
3. Please explain who are the parties interested in such a research, and how the corporate managers can use the empirical findings in the benefits of their companies.
4. Please explain if your findings are in line with previous studies or not.
5. In Literature review section, I would recommend to summarize the advantages/shortfalls of the forecasting methods used in this study.
6. Please explain how you treat the outliers and the breakeven points in data series.
7. Perhaps the authors can update the reference list with more recent studies, since the references are old (only 3 studies published in last 5 years).
Author Response
Q1：Abstract: What means BP? Before using the abbreviations, just define them between brackets first time when used.
Regarding Q1, it has been added. (P1)
Q2：Please work more on practical implications of the results. At the end of the introduction, it's just not clear why we need the authors' study, why it's important and interesting to read their work, and what we are really going to learn.
Q3: Please explain who are the parties interested in such a research, and how the corporate managers can use the empirical findings in the benefits of their companies.
Regarding Q2 and Q3, it has been added at the end of the Introduction. (P2)
Q4: Please explain if your findings are in line with previous studies or not.
Q5: In Literature review section, I would recommend to summarize the advantages/shortfalls of the forecasting methods used in this study.Regarding Q4 and Q5, it has been added at the end of the Literature review. (P4)
Q6: Please explain how you treat the outliers and the breakeven points in data series.
Regarding Q6, it has been added at the beginning of Data preprocessing part. (P7)
Q7: Perhaps the authors can update the reference list with more recent studies, since the references are old (only 3 studies published in last 5 years).Regarding Q7, the reference list has been updated. (P15-17)
Round 2
Reviewer 1 Report
I thank the authors for taking into account all my comments. Overall, the manuscript is appreciably improved.
Reviewer 2 Report
The paper shows a great improvement. From my point of view, it can be published.
