Logistics Technology Forecasting Framework Using Patent Analysis for Technology Roadmap

Round 1

Reviewer 1 Report

This is undoubtedly a very innovative paper. I like this paper very much. It is very simple to read, which makes me deeply inspired. The introduction of digital technology is an interesting part of this paper, which discusses the potential impact of digital technology and other technologies on the forecasting framework of logistics technology.
 
As soon as I got this paper, I began to read it. I like it very much, because this paper is very novel and can make readers think deeply. After reading this paper, I wonder whether we need to use higher level digital technology to develop logistics technology prediction framework in the future.
 
This paper is very excellent with rich content and standard format and structure. There is even a separate literature review section, which makes me very surprised. I especially like the third part of this paper, which is perfect, especially the description and application of Patent Analysis.

The fourth and fifth parts are also very good, and I really can't pick out the shortcomings of this paper from the content.

But there's one small thing I need to mention:
  
1. The conclusion section is well written, but I wish the author could add a discussion section.
 
I have no other suggestions, but I still hope that the author can continue to conduct research in this direction, which I think is very valuable.
 
Good luck!

Author Response

We thank the reviewer for the helpful comments. All the comments pointed out by the reviewer is corrected, as follows.

Comment 1. The conclusion section is well written, but I wish the author could add a discussion section."

As advised, a discussion section has been added to this paper. The revisions are as follows:

1. The existing “Limits” have been renumbered from Section 5.3 to Section 5.4, and the “Discussion” section has been added to Section 5.3.
2. The discussion section added to the paper is provided, as follows:

5.3 Discussion Major implications of this study is to be found in the methodological aspect and the management aspect of logistics service providers.   In this study, a more diverse and systematic analysis process was applied in comparison with previous studies for the purpose of improving the accuracy of the research results and increasing the usability of the research results. There have been previous studies to predict the innovative trends in logistics technologies and to identify promising future technologies using topic modeling, but they only searched for the gaps in specific technologies or looked at the overall technology trends. There was no framework study premised on the systematization of the entire process from predicting the technological changes in the logistics industry to discovering promising technologies. To bridge this gap, we combined various analytical techniques on this subject. The methodological differentiation of this study is that first, the patent search keyword extraction process through news data crawling is added so that expert intervention is not required. Second, patent search of classification-based and company-based approaches may be limited with a limited data range, and if a keyword-based approach is used to compensate for this, there is no missing data, but patent data in an area too far from the subject is also extracted. As a result, a lot of time and effort is required in the process of selecting valid data. To improve that case, in this study, the quality of patent search was improved by combining the keywords extracted from SNS with the mega-process words of the logistics industry. Third, in identifying promising areas through LDA-based clustering, a multidimensional analysis technique was applied by combining not only time series analysis, which is the existing quantitative trend evaluation technique, but also network analysis and technology level map analysis, which are qualitative evaluations. This helped clearer targeting of promising technology areas. In addition, it is meaningful that the process from the beginning of the search for promising technology to the selection of technology for the final roadmap is consistent by combining GTM analysis to search for the reality of specific promising technology rather than just exploring the promising technology area. It forms the basis for our contribution to the research of future logistics technologies. Finally, the management implications of this study for logistics service providers can be helpful in providing a reference point for roadmap development and guiding technology management tasks to actual logistics company practitioners in the implementation of digitalization. Because it provides a standardized process of technical research for digitalization of logistics companies, it can be carried out with less time and cost. In addition, by making learning data in areas such as processing of unstructured data, a procedure that was carried out through the intervention of researchers in the research process, it created a basis for development as an automated tool for predicting future technological changes and deriving blank technologies. For the development of this study, it is necessary to further subdivide the overall process in the future and pay attention and effort for standardization.

 

Comment 2. English language and style are fine/minor spell check required."

The manuscript is proofread and revised by the authors to improve the readability and to correct grammatical mistakes, and in addition, the manuscript is being proofread by the professional editor and the corrections will be included in the final manuscript for publication.

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Reviewer 2 Report

This paper aims to propose a new framework for extension to the stage for establishing a technology roadmap. It is very interesting paper. However, I have some minor comment as follows.

1. English. There are problematic wording and grammar mistakes. For example,  (1) P1L27. ``aim" should be ``aims" ,  (2） P:2L65, what is DHL， not use abbreviations here. (3） P3L31, ``Describe" should be ``describe".(4) why do you use so many uppercase letter, such as P5L219, ``Wakefern Food", if it does not have other meanings, please use lowercase letter. Same words can find in other places. (5) P1L30 LDA is undefined. (It is better to avoid such abbreviations in the abstract).
2. Figures 2 and 3, should not it be presented it as a figure with captions

Author Response

We thank the reviewer for the helpful comments. The advice that was pointed out by the reviewer is corrected as follows.

 

Comment 1. English. There are problematic wording and grammar mistakes. For example,  (1) P1L27. ``aim" should be ``aims" ,  (2） P:2L65, what is DHL， not use abbreviations here. (3） P3L31, ``Describe" should be ``describe".(4) why do you use so many uppercase letter, such as P5L219, ``Wakefern Food", if it does not have other meanings, please use lowercase letter. Same words can find in other places. (5) P1L30 LDA is undefined. (It is better to avoid such abbreviations in the abstract)."

 

All the English comments made by the reviewer are corrected by the authors in the revised manuscript (please kindly see the revised manuscript). In addition, the manuscript is proofread and revised by the authors to improve the readability and to correct grammatical mistakes, and finally, the manuscript is being proofread by the professional editor and the corrections will be included in the final manuscript for publication.

 

Comment 2. Figures 2 and 3, should not it be presented it as a figure with captions."

 

Figures 2 and 3 needed significant improvement to improve the visibility and to clarify the implications. The figures are revised accordingly and provided as below. In relation to Figure 2, a supplementary description has been included as well (Please kindly find the attached pdf file for the figures).

 

Revised Figures
Figure 2. Technology level map	Figure 3. Trend analysis.

 

Supplementary description

Define the X-axis as the Technological Activity Index (TAI) for the quantitative assessment of a technique. As more patents filed, indicating that the technology is growing rapidly. The Y-axis implies the Technology Impact Index (TII) for the qualitative evaluation of a technology.

 

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf