1. Introduction
In the context of the dual carbon strategy, proposing and developing an integrated energy system is an effective way to improve energy structure and energy efficiency, which can balance renewable energy consumption and comprehensive utilization efficiency through multi-energy complementation and multi-energy flow synergy, and lay the foundation for building a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system [
1]. However, under the premise of meeting the diversified energy demand of users such as cooling, heating, and electricity, the integrated energy system makes for the deep integration and interaction of different energy flow systems such as the traditional power system, thermal system, and gas system, which greatly increases the complexity of modeling analysis and optimization regulation of integrated energy systems [
2]. With the frequent occurrence of extreme weather and the increase in uncertainty in the behavior of multi-user subjects, the fault disturbances generated by different energy flow subsystems will be separated from a single subsystem and generate cross-system propagation and evolution, further increasing the difficulty of intelligent regulation and affecting the stable operation of integrated energy systems.
To study the anti-disturbance characteristics of the heating network, and then improve the heating strategy of the heating network to obtain a more flexible and energy-saving intelligent heating strategy, dynamic modeling of the heating network is the primary prerequisite. Luo et al. [
3] constructed a novel model for propagating clean heating acceptance, ACHRA, based on the concentration of heat users, providing guidance for heat network modeling. Based on the thermal resistance theory, Dai et al. [
4] modeled the heat source, heat exchanger, piping, and heat load of the electric heating system from the perspective of thermoelectric analogy, giving two different piping models that are important for the model construction of the heating network. It shows the direction for the construction of the next pipeline dynamic model of the heating network. Ge et al. [
5] constructed an overall dynamic heat-flow model of the heating system from the heat source to the user by dynamically modeling the key components based on the standardized thermal resistance defined by the inlet-temperature difference. A foundation is laid for the application of the analogous circuit method to the construction of heating network models. Jiang et al. [
6] designed a modeling approach for district heating (DH) networks based on a compact model of the data. However, the control equations of this method are more complex and have more intermediate parameters. Zhao et al. [
7] developed a dynamic characteristic model for analyzing the nonlinear characteristics of heating networks based on a modified Elman neural network. But the solution of this modeling method is quite difficult. In summary, the models constructed by the current dynamic modeling of heating networks are relatively complex, with many intermediate parameters, and the extensibility and compatibility of the models are low.
For different energy flow subsystems in an integrated energy system, the concept and type of fault disturbance do not have the same meaning. Take the centralized heat system on the customer side as an example; it is a multi-input and multi-output system with a large scale, large latency, and high coupling of each variable. With the increasing complexity of the heating network, there will be more and more heating disturbances and faults [
8] in the heating network. The heating disturbances and faults in the heating network will cause the indoor temperature to be substandard on the user side and increase the energy consumption of the heating network, so it is necessary to adopt more advanced and intelligent heating strategies in order to reduce the effects of heating disturbances and faults in the heating network. Huang et al. [
9] pointed out that China’s centralized heat supply industry is developing rapidly. Taking advantage of advanced information and communication technology and Internet platforms to promote intelligent energy production, interconnection and interoperability of various energy-flow networks, and collaborative transformation of multiple energy forms is an important direction for the transformation and upgrading of the energy industry. To cope with uncertain thermal disturbances on the user side, Yang et al. [
10] integrated hybrid mechanisms and deep learning methods into a novel heating-load model (BHLP-UN model). Compared with the conventional model which only considered the meteorological factors and the thermal inertia, the mean absolute percentage error of this model decreases by 53.512~65.338% for different types of heat users and the annual load could decrease to 26.501~28.572%. Liu [
11] considered the stabilization of a thermal system with input delay and control matching disturbances, transformed the input delay term into a first-order hyperbolic equation to obtain a cascaded PDE system, and improved the stability of the heating system in the face of disturbances by applying active disturbance-suppression control methods in real time to estimate the disturbances and then designing feedback control. Based on the LADRC control algorithm, Jin et al. [
12] proposed a design scheme for an energy-saving heating control system by combining ZigBee wireless communication technology, M-Bus bus transmission technology, and Web configuration software, which achieved automatic room temperature regulation in the face of heating disturbances. Thenmozhi M. et al. [
13] studied hybrid controllers, i.e., PID-based IMC controllers, showing that many more complex factors contribute to the temperature control capability of the heating system under disturbances and delays than other controllers. Wei et al. [
14] investigated the ability of model predictive control (MPC) to achieve a balance of energy efficiency, thermal comfort, and air quality, minimize peak load demand and maximize the production of renewable energy in buildings, and improve the flexibility of heating systems in response to heating disturbances. Edward O’Dwyer et al. [
15] devised a novel spatiotemporal filtering technique for estimating disturbances and combined it with a meta-heuristic search method to propose a method for deriving low-order models from data suitable for use in optimization-based MPC strategies to improve the flexibility of heating systems.
Improving the overall anti-disturbance capability of the heating network, improving its flexibility and energy efficiency, further improving the heating strategy [
16], and gradually realizing smart heating [
17,
18,
19] are the main directions for the future development of the heating network. For this goal, many scholars have made attempts in this regard. Jelger Jansen et al. [
20] proposed a rule-based controller (RBC) control method for the district heating (DH) network that considers the system as a whole (including the heating demand side) and incorporates important nonlinearities and all types of flexibility into the MPC’s controller model to improve the heating-network prediction capability and flexibility. Ju et al. [
21] proposed and established a model predictive control strategy based on RBF neural networks, which improved the control effect and reduced the energy consumption in the heating process while improving the comfort of heat users. Ge et al. [
5] proposed a variety of heating strategies developed based on an iterative approach for hourly mass regulation of primary heating networks, and the proposed user-following heating strategy section saved 25.27% energy compared to the all-day heating strategy, and further proposed five different heating strategies, i.e., all-day constant heating, inverted triangular, step, trapezoidal, and parabolic, to achieve energy savings in the practical application of heating systems operation. Valentin Kaisermayer et al. [
22] presented two control methods for interconnected DH networks that optimized the supply and demand sides to reduce CO
2 emissions. On the supply side, an optimization-based energy management system defined operating strategies based on demand forecasts. On the demand side, the operation of customer substations was influenced in favor of supply using demand-side management. Elena N. Desyatirikova et al. [
23] proposed a heating control system containing three temperature controllers, which effectively improved the rationality and energy efficiency of the heating network control strategy. Zheng et al. [
24] proposed a variable differential-pressure heating-network control strategy based on end-load monitoring, and the energy consumption of the proposed heating strategy can be reduced by 34.27% compared with the traditional constant differential-pressure control strategy. The above-mentioned multi-type heating strategies for multi-user heating networks focus on a simplified model of the heating network or focus on smart heating from the control perspective, whose overall objectives mainly include user comfort and satisfaction, system safety and reliability, efficient energy utilization, and low-carbon and clean economy. However, with the further recommendation of regional integrated energy systems and the construction of new power systems, exploring the variability of electric and thermal loads of different users and the feasibility of [
25,
26] integration is the key to the efficient, flexible, and stable operation of future integrated energy systems, and electric and thermal interaction makes the study of the evolution of fault disturbances generated on the user side in this system and the propagation characteristics of cross-systems more urgent, taking into account the propagation of fault disturbances in heating systems. Intelligent control strategies for the propagation of fault disturbances in heating systems need more theoretical basis and practical application.
However, the models constructed in the current dynamic modeling of heating networks and heating strategy optimization are relatively complex, with many intermediate parameters and low model extensibility and compatibility. At the same time, the current modeling methods have difficulty in accurately following the load fluctuations on the customer side, and the response speed is slow, making it difficult to quantitatively analyze the stochastic behavior of customers. To address the research gap mentioned above, this paper constructs a dynamic thermal power flow model of the whole link of the multi-user heating network in the integrated energy system and analyzes the fault-disturbance propagation characteristics of the heating network by this model; its key contributions are summarized as follows:
This paper proposes the resistance–capacitance reactance method based on the circuit principle to model and analyze the whole link of the heating network.
This paper analyzes the fault-disturbance propagation characteristics of the heating pipes and multi-user heating network, which provides a necessary basis for formulating intelligent control strategies against fault disturbance in the integrated energy system.
This study compares two different heating strategies and the blocker installation methods of the multi-user heating network when the outdoor temperature varies and obtains a new intelligent heating strategy that can effectively resist disturbance.
The sections of this paper are structured as follows:
Section 2 constructs the dynamic thermal-power-flow model of the whole link of the multi-user heating network. On this basis,
Section 3 analyzes the fault-disturbance propagation characteristics of the multi-user heating network by the model. Subsequently,
Section 4 studies the heating strategy of a multi-user heating network in practical situations and proposes the corresponding smart heating strategy against fault disturbance. Lastly, the research conclusion is summarized in
Section 5.
2. Dynamic Thermal-Power-Flow Model for Multi-User Heating Networks
The integrated energy system contains two categories of electrical network and heating network. The access to various types of electrical and thermal conversion devices in the power grid and heat network further integrates the electrical and thermal dual networks, which increases the difficulty and complexity of fault analysis in integrated energy systems. Among these networks, the integrated heating network intertwined for multiple sources and multiple users, as shown in
Figure 1, is a typical complex network with asynchronous delays and multiple device coupling. The heat source uses high-temperature steam, electric heating, and electric heat pumps to heat the hot-side work mass in the heat exchanger station, and the heated hot-side work mass of the heat exchanger station heats the low-temperature work mass in the heat exchanger, and the heated low-temperature work mass is transported through heating pipes of different lengths and enters different radiators, where it exchanges heat with indoor air to achieve heating for different types of users. The work mass after heat exchange in the radiator is then transported by the return pipeline to the low-temperature side inlet of the heat exchanger.
Due to the characteristics of multi-user participation, multi-device coupling, and strong asynchronous delays in heating networks, the overall modeling and analysis of multi-user participation in heating networks is the basis for analyzing the propagation of fault disturbances. In this section, based on the differential equations of the heat transfer process and the equivalent circuit method in the circuit principle, the heat transfer and transport processes of heat exchangers, heat transfer pipes, and radiators on the user side in the integrated heating network are simplified and analyzed, respectively, and the dynamic thermal-power-flow model is constructed to study the heat-transfer state in the multi-user heating network, and to analyze the propagation and evolution law of fault disturbance in the multi-user heating network.
2.1. Dynamic Thermal-Power-Flow Model for Different Heat-Transfer Processes
For the heating network containing different users in the district integrated energy system shown in
Figure 1, the heat exchanger, the mass-transfer pipeline and the radiator on the user side are the key equipment and important links of the integrated energy-supply heat network. Therefore, integrated modeling of the physical processes of each link and equipment is required. For heat-exchange equipment in heat-transfer stations, the main dynamic heat-transfer processes need to consider the dynamic transfer and storage characteristics of the heat-transfer process. According to the dynamic heat-transfer process of the heat exchanger and its thermal-power-flow model [
27], it is known that the dynamic heat-transfer process of the heat exchanger can be expressed as:
where
Twall,
Th,
Tc are the heat-exchanger metal wall, hot-side fluid, and cold-side fluid local temperature;
Th,in and
Tc,in are the inlet temperature of the hot fluid and cold fluid, respectively;
Cwall is the equivalent heat capacity of the heat-exchanger wall.
Rh and
Rc are the standard thermal resistance of heat transfer between hot-side fluid, cold-side fluid, and the heat-exchanger wall, respectively. The specific calculation of expressions for [
27]:
where,
NTU1 =
φkhA/Gh,
NTU2 =
φkcA/Gc.
φ is the correction factor of this heat exchanger.
Gh and
Gc denote the heat-capacity flow rate of the fluid on the hot side and cold side, respectively, which is the product of mass flow rate and constant pressure-specific heat capacity.
kh and
kc denote the convective heat-transfer coefficients between the hot-side fluid, cold-side fluid and the heat-exchanger wall, respectively, and
A is the heat-transfer area of the heat-exchanger wall [
28].
According to the dynamic heat-transfer process of the above heat exchanger and by analogy with the RC circuit in the resistance–capacitance reactance principle, a dynamic thermal-power-flow model of the heat-transfer process of the heat exchanger in a multi-user heating network can be obtained by analogous electrical analysis, as shown in
Figure 2, which contains two equivalent thermal resistances and one equivalent thermal capacity, demonstrating the heat-transfer process between the fluid and the metal wall inside the heat exchanger, i.e., part of the heat from the hot fluid is transferred to and absorbed by the heat-exchanger wall, and part of the heat is transferred to and absorbed by the cold fluid.
In addition, in a multi-user integrated heating network, the carrier mass of heat needs to be circulated and transported through the water supply and return piping, which plays a key role in the propagation of fault disturbances in the system. When the high-temperature work fluid flows in the pipeline, it will dissipate heat through the pipe wall to the surrounding soil, etc., causing energy loss, and at the same time, due to the finite heat capacity and the finite velocity of the fluid flow process, a certain delay characteristic from the heat exchange station to different users, similar to the current flowing through the inductor in an AC circuit, will produce hysteresis. Therefore, in this paper, a dynamic thermal-power-flow model for water supply and return pipes is constructed by analyzing the pipe-heat-dissipation model [
27], and the dynamic process can be expressed as:
where
Ts,
Tp and
Td denote the soil, pipe wall, and fluid local temperature inside the pipe, respectively.
Cp denotes the equivalent heat capacity of the wall of the heating pipe;
Td,in indicates the inlet temperature of the fluid in the pipeline;
Rd denotes the standard thermal resistance between the heating fluid inside the pipe and the metal wall of the pipe.
Rs denotes the standard thermal resistance of heat transfer between the pipe wall and the outer soil, which can be expressed, respectively, as [
27]:
where,
NTU3 =
kdAd/Gd,
Gd denotes the heat-capacity flow of the fluid inside the pipe, which is the product of mass flow rate and specific heat.
kd denotes the convective heat-transfer coefficient inside the pipe.
(
i = 1, 2, 3) denotes the thickness of the insulation, shell, and soil of the heating pipe.
denotes the thermal conductivity of the pipe wall metal.
(
i = 1, 2, 3) denotes the thermal conductivity of the insulation, shell, and soil.
A denotes the heat-transfer area of the inner wall of the pipe.
L2 indicates the length of the pipe.
By comparing Equations (1) and (4), which have the same expression form, the same analogy with the RC circuit in the resistance–capacitance reactance principle, and the dynamic thermal-power-flow model of the heat-transport process of the heating pipes in the multi-user heating network can be obtained by analogous electrical analysis, as shown in
Figure 3, which includes two standard thermal resistances and an equivalent heat capacity, reflecting the dynamic loss of the enthalpy flow of the work mass in the pipe transport process. That is, part of the heat of the fluid volume is absorbed by the pipe wall and the other part of the heat is dissipated into the external environment and absorbed by the soil.
The user side in the heat dissipation equipment mainly refers to the radiator, the device capable of transferring heat from the high-temperature mass inside the radiator to the user’s room, and is the terminal equipment in the heating network. In integrated energy systems, multi-user heating-network fault perturbations include uncertainties and randomness caused by user behavior, whose propagation characteristics, the variability of the respective room temperatures, and the associated anti-disturbance heating strategies can have a large impact on the overall scheduling and operation of the system. Therefore, it is crucial to prepare radiator-heat dynamic transfer models that portray and describe the metered and user behavior.
Since the radiators are arranged directly on the user side, the room can be equated to a hexahedron, and it is assumed that the air is fully exchanged at all locations in the room with uniform temperature distribution, while ignoring the influence of indoor appliances, etc. on the heat-exchange process. Since the temperature change in the room depends on the heat dissipation of the radiator and the heat exchange between the building and the outdoor environment, the heat-capacity characteristics of the indoor air and the heat storage and thermal-protection capacity of the building walls need to be considered. Analyzing the radiator and the building wall separately, the dynamic thermal-power-flow model of the water supply and return piping [
27] is constructed in this paper by invoking the dynamic model of the heat exchanger and the one-dimensional multilayer wall transient thermal conductivity control equation, whose dynamic process expression is:
where,
Ta,
Tr,
Tsa,
Td indicate the instantaneous temperature of indoor air, radiator metal wall, outdoor air, and internal fluid of the radiator;
Td,in indicates the fluid-inlet temperature inside the radiator;
Rd,in,
Ra,
Rsa, respectively, indicate the inside of the radiator, the outside of the radiator and the standard thermal resistance between indoor air and outdoor air; the calculation formulas are [
27]:
where,
NTU4 =
kdA/
Gd,
kd,
ka denote radiator wall and internal fluid and convective heat transfer coefficients with indoor air, respectively.
Ca denotes the equivalent heat capacity of indoor air.
and
(
i = 1, 2, 3, 4) denote the thermal conductivity and thickness of each insulation layer.
denotes the thermal conductivity of the radiator walls.
hin and
hout denote the indoor and outdoor heat-transfer coefficients.
Comparing Equations (1) and (4) and Equations (7) and (8), the same analogy with the RC circuit in the resistance–capacitance reactance principle, and the dynamic thermal-power-flow model of the dynamic process of heat transfer between radiators and indoor air in a multi-user heating network can be obtained by analogous electrical analysis, as shown in
Figure 4, which contains two equivalent heat capacities and three standard thermal resistances, fully reflecting the heating mass into the building. After that are the heat-transfer process and heat-capacity delay characteristics. That is, part of the heat of the fluid inside the radiator is absorbed by the metal wall of the radiator, and part of the heat is transferred to the air, in which part of the heat is absorbed by the indoor air and the remaining heat is transferred to the outdoor air.
2.2. Dynamic Thermal-Power-Flow Model for Multi-User Heating Networks
According to the dynamic thermal-power-flow model of different heating links or equipment in the multi-user heating network, the equipotential points in the model can be connected, thus obtaining the overall dynamic thermal-power-flow model from the heat source to the user as shown in
Figure 5. In this figure,
Th,in is the inlet temperature of the water on the hot side of the heat exchanger,
Tc,in indicates the inlet temperature of the water on the cold side of the heat exchanger,
Ta1,
Ta2,
Ta3 indicate the indoor temperature of different users,
Ts indicates the soil temperature,
Tsa indicates the outdoor temperature, and it should be noted that since the length of the heating pipes between different users and the heat source is different, the size of the thermal resistance and the delay characteristics of the three pipes are not the same.
2.3. Validation of the Dynamic Thermal-Power-Flow Model for the Heating Network
The dynamic thermal-power-flow model of a multi-user heating network was built in
Section 2.2 based on the analog circuit method by MATLAB. To ensure the accuracy of the results simulated by this model, this section takes the heat-exchanger model and the pipeline model as examples, providing the validation of these two models by numerical simulation through the software FLUENT.
Figure 6 shows the two numerical models built by FLUENT: (a) Heat-exchanger model; (b) Pipeline model. The length of the heat exchanger and the pipeline is appropriately shortened to simplify the calculation, which is 1.5 m and 30 m, respectively. The flow rate of fluids in the heat exchanger and pipeline is set to 0.5 m/s.
The dynamic thermal-power-flow model and fluent model are applied to simulate the heat-transfer process in the heat exchanger and heat transport in the pipeline. The outlet temperature of the cold-side water of the exchanger and the pipeline outlet temperature were obtained by the two models, respectively. The comparison results are shown in
Figure 7. At the initial time, the inlet temperature of the hot-side water in the exchanger is set to 90 °C, the cold-side water inlet temperature is 50 °C, and the initial temperature of the heat-exchanger wall and the remaining water is set to 70 °C. From
Figure 7a we can see that the outlet temperatures of cold-side water in the heat exchanger calculated by the two models are almost consistent. For the pipeline model, at the initial time, the temperature of the pipe inlet and the pipe wall is set to 70 °C, and the soil temperature is −5 °C.
Figure 7b shows the calculation results of temperature change and delay characteristics of the pipeline outlet when the pipeline inlet temperature steps from 70 °C to 60 °C at the 0th s. The pipeline outlet temperature calculated by the thermal-power-flow model has good agreement with the result obtained by the fluent model, and the temperature-change propagation time is a few seconds later than the fluent model due to the segmentation method in the thermal-power-flow model of the pipeline, ignoring the temperature gradient inside the segment. The comparison results show that the proposed thermal-power-flow model for the heat network has high reliability in predicting the temperature and heat-disturbance propagation characteristics of the heat network.