Study on the Development Status and Promotion Strategy of Zero-Emission Commercial Vehicles in China under the Background of the Dual Carbon Target

Abstract

The adoption of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is an effective strategy for pollution reduction, especially for high-emitting commercial vehicles. This paper systematically reviews the promotion policies and development status of zero-emission commercial vehicles (ZECVs) in China, with a focus on diverse application scenarios. Comprehensive policies, including subsidies, right-of-way, infrastructure development, and environmental protection incentives, have significantly advanced NEV adoption, as demonstrated by Shenzhen’s full electrification of buses and the extensive deployment of zero-emission trucks. Despite the overall slow development of ZECVs, regions in southern China and developed areas exhibit better progress. Medium and large passenger vehicles (MLPVs) have achieved a zero-emission rate of around 40%, contrasting with the significantly lower rates of 1.52% for mini and light trucks (MLTs) and 0.44% for medium and heavy trucks (MHTs). Electrification promotion varies significantly in different application scenarios, with buses leading at over 90% zero-emission rates, followed by the airport (24%) and port (16%) vehicles. The electrification of sanitation, logistics, and key industry transport, through lagging, is enhanced by targeted policies and local industry. Buses are designated as the highest priority (Level 1) for electrification transition while intercity logistics and vehicles in key industries are categorized as the lowest priority (Level 4). In addition, policy recommendations, including tailored strategies for ZECV promotion and emission reductions in traditional commercial vehicles, are put forward to provide guidance and reference for setting future zero-emission promotion goals and policy direction for commercial vehicles in subdivided application scenarios.

1. Introduction

The surge in vehicle ownership from 207 million in 2011 to 417 million in 2022 has made mobile sources the primary contributors of PM_2.5 and ozone pollution in large- and medium-sized cities in China, posing significant threats to the environment and human health [1,2,3]. Furthermore, CO₂ emission from the transportation sector had become the second largest global source, accounting for 22% of energy-related CO₂ emissions worldwide, reaching 8.22 billion tonnes (Gt) in 2023 [4]. Although commercial vehicles (CVs) accounted for a relatively small proportion of the overall vehicle composition (only 12% in 2022), their emissions of NO_X, PM, and CO₂ were as high as 95.5%, 97.9%, and 61%, respectively [1]. Therefore, it is urgent to reduce the pollutants and carbon emissions from commercial vehicles, an action that constitutes a pivotal effort in combating climate change and realizing carbon neutrality [5,6,7].

It is the general trend to promote road traffic emission reduction with new energy vehicles (NEVs) as the main strategy. NEVs, also known as zero-emission vehicles, refer to vehicles equipped with new-type power systems that produce no tailpipe emissions during operation. These vehicles have been proven to have significant advantages over internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) in reducing fossil fuel energy consumption and pollutant emissions, particularly CO₂e-emission [5,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16]. China is the largest electric vehicle market with a global electric car sales share of 60%, higher than Europe (25%) and the United States (10%) [17]. The ownership of NEVs in China reached 13.1 million in 2022 [1]. This is mainly due to China’s great efforts in the NEVs promotion and the issuance of a series of supporting policies since 2009 [18,19].

Passenger vehicles currently dominate the NEV market, holding a market share of 93.3% in 2021 [20]. However, the development of new energy commercial vehicles, which are characterized by large load capacity, long annual mileage, and substantial pollutant emissions, is significantly falling behind. This uneven development phenomenon is also observed in the new energy vehicle markets of countries and regions such as the United States, Europe, and Japan, highlighting the challenges faced by the electric transition process of commercial vehicles.

Although previous studies have laid a foundation for policies and roadmaps aimed at promoting zero-emission commercial vehicles (ZECVs), the research objects are mostly limited to the overall commercial vehicle fleet or specific vehicle types, failing to fully consider the complexity and diversity of commercial vehicles under different application scenarios [21,22,23,24,25,26,27]. Moreover, numerous policies have been enacted to promote the adoption of NEVs; however, there is a lack of research on the evaluation of the implementation effect of these policies on the electrification of commercial vehicles [28,29,30,31,32]. Therefore, this study addresses a critical gap in the literature by delving into the promotion of ZECVs, particularly within different application scenarios.

This paper summarizes the main policies aiming at zero-emission vehicle development and uses Shenzhen as an example to analyze the impact of policies on ZECV promotion. The actual promotion status of ZECVs is analyzed from the perspectives of subtypes, subregions, and subapplication scenarios in depth. Additionally, combined with the total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis, the roadmap route and priority of ZECV promotion are innovatively designed, and corresponding policy recommendations are proposed. This paper contributes to a comprehensive understanding of the latest developments and future directions in the electric transition of commercial vehicles. It provides valuable references for policy departments in formulating relevant policies and regulations, as well as offering support to other countries on how to boost the adoption of ZECVs.

2. Literature Review of Policies on Promoting ZECV Development

2.1. ZECV Development Policies

As a national strategic emerging industry, the NEV industry has received support from central and local governments, which have formulated and issued supportive policies. In terms of encouraging production, the NEV Industry Development Plan (2021–2035) proposed that by 2025, the sales of new NEVs should reach about 20% of the total new vehicle sales. By 2035, all vehicles sold in the public area should be NEVs. In terms of promoting sales, a series of policies, such as subsidies, right-of-way, and infrastructure construction, have been formulated to encourage the purchase and usage of NEVs.

2.1.1. Subsidy Policy

Since 2009, the government began to vigorously support the promotion and application of NEVs and increase financial subsidies. At present, a relatively complete fiscal and taxation support policy system for NEVs has been formed, covering the research and development, production, purchase, and usage stages. Similarly, countries such as Germany, France, Japan, and South Korea have also introduced subsidy policies as a pivotal strategy to encourage the development of NEVs, with the objective of narrowing the cost gap between ICEVs and NEVs.

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Purchase Subsidy Policy

In 2009, the “Notice on the Pilot Work of Demonstration and Promotion of Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicles” clearly proposed to subsidize the purchase of NEVs in the public service sector of pilot cities. Since then, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), in conjunction with other government departments, issued several notices on subsidies for purchasing NEVs. The cities that implemented the NEVs purchase subsidy policy expanded from the initial 13 pilot cities to 88 demonstration cities, and finally spread to all cities in 2015. Meanwhile, the scope of purchase subsidies was extended, and the promotion of NEVs continuously strengthened during this period.

However, the NEV purchase subsidy has been phased out year by year since 2014, with a declining ratio exceeding 50% in 2019 and termination at the end of 2022. Local governments also issued a series of local purchase subsidy policies for NEVs so that NEV buyers can enjoy national and local “double subsidies”. Moreover, the policy raised the subsidy thresholds for NEV technical indicators, such as the energy consumption requirements, endurance mileage, and energy density of the power battery system. The changes in subsidy standards and technical requirements for new energy trucks are listed in

Table 1. Subsidy standards and technical requirements for new energy trucks from 2017 to 2022.

Year	Vehicle Category	Subsidy Standard (CNY/kWh) 1			Upper Limit of Subsidy for a Single Vehicle (CNY 10,000) 2			Upper Limit of Energy Consumption per Unit Load Mass (Wh/km·kg)
		≤30	30~50	≥50	Class N1	Class N2	Class N3
2017	NET	1500	1200	1000	15			0.5
2018	NET	850	750	650	10			0.4
2019	BET	350			/	/	3.5	0.3
	PHT	500			2	5.5
2020	BET	315			1.8	3.5	5	0.29
	PHT	450			/	2	3.15
2021	BET (nonpublic domain)	252			1.44	2.8	4	0.29
	PHT (nonpublic domain)	360			/	1.6	2.52
	BET (public domain)	315			1.8	4.95	4.95
	PHT (public domain)	450			/	1.8	3.15
2022	BET (nonpublic domain)	176			1.01	1.96	2.8	0.29
	PHT (nonpublic domain)	252			/	1.12	1.76
	BET (public domain)	252			1.44	3.96	3.96
	PHT (public domain)	360			/	1.44	2.52

Note: NET: new energy truck; BET: battery electric truck; PHT: plug-in hybrid truck. ¹ Total power battery storage capacity of a truck, unit kWh. ² According to the Classification of power-driven vehicles and trailers (GB/T 15089-2001) [33], class N1 refers to a truck with a maximum design total mass not exceeding 3500 kg; class N2 refers to a truck with a maximum design total mass exceeding 3500 kg but not exceeding 12,000 kg; class N3 refers to a truck with a maximum design total mass exceeding 12,000 kg.

. Similarly, the standards and amounts of purchase subsidies for NEVs in other countries exhibit significant variation, depending on factors such as vehicle models, load capacities, and technical parameters (including range, battery capacity, and energy efficiency), resulting in a wide range of subsidy amounts ranging from USD 15,000 to USD 315,000.

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Preferential Tax Policy

In addition to the purchase subsidy policy, NEVs also enjoy a series of preferential tax policies, which provide different degrees of concessions for value-added tax (VAT) and excise tax related to NEV enterprises, as well as the vehicle purchase tax (VPT) and vehicle and vessel tax related to consumers. The preferential tax policies issued in recent years for NEVs are shown in

Table 2. Preferential tax for NEVs.

Tax Category	Stage	Tax Payable	Implementation Time	Preferential Vehicle Category	Preferential Rules
VAT	Research and development, and production	Based on the tax rate of 13%	February 2013	Financial subsidies obtained by NEV enterprises that are not directly linked to their revenues or quantities from the sale of goods, services, services, intangible assets, or real estate do not belong to the taxation scope.
			June 2018	Refund of VAT end-of-period tax credit for advanced manufacturing industries such as equipment manufacturing and modern service industries such as R&D in the field of NEVs
Excise Tax	Research and development, and production	Based on the engine displacement, ranging from 1% to 40%	April 2006	BEV and FCEV	Not belong to the taxation scope
VPT	Purchase	Based on the tax rate of 10%	September 2014	BEV, PHEV, and FCEV	Tax exemption for NEVs which is listed in the Catalogue of the Models of NEVs Exempt from Vehicle Purchase Tax
Vehicle and Vessel Tax	Use	Based on the vehicle category, engine displacement, and applicable tax rate regulated by different regions	January 2012	BEV commercial vehicle, PHEV, and FCEV commercial vehicle	Tax exemption for NEVs which is listed in the Catalogue of the Models of Energy-Saving and NEVs Entitled to Vehicle and Vessel Tax Reduction or Exemption
				BEV and FCEV passenger vehicles	Not within the scope of taxation

Note: BEV: battery electric vehicle; PHEV: plug-in hybrid electric vehicle; FCEV: fuel cell electric vehicle.

. Among that, the vehicle purchase tax was extended three times in 2017, 2020, and 2022. Consumers can still benefit from the exemption of VPT in 2024 and 2025 and the exemption of half of VPT in 2026 and 2027.

According to the latest statistics released by the MIIT, the purchase subsidies for NEVs have exceeded CNY 152.1 billion, covering at least 3.17 million vehicles from 2010 to 2020 [34]. In 2023, new energy vehicles were exempted from VPT and vehicle and vessel tax, amounting to CNY 121.8 billion [35].

2.1.2. Right-of-Way Policy

The right-of-way policy for NEVs is mainly focused on road traffic priority, which implements differentiated traffic management for NEVs, such as opening up the right-of-way in urban areas, no restriction on vehicle purchase, and no restriction on the license plate. Globally, this policy is similarly manifested, where NEVs are granted free access to public parking, bus lanes, and preferential treatment in traffic-restricted zones in Norway and Germany. Among the various ZECV types, the right-of-way policy has greatly promoted the application of zero-emission logistics vehicles (ZELVs). Based on the right-of-way policies issued by central and local governments, different cities have differentiated opening degrees of right-of-way for ZELVs. Cities such as Shenzhen, Xiamen, and Chengdu, which have high openness degrees of right-of-way, have no limitation or little limitation on the travel road scope, travel time, and vehicle type. Furthermore, some regions such as Shenzhen, as well as London and Rotterdam, have established “Low Emission Zones” or “Zero Emission Zones”, specifically granting road access privileges to ZELVs, while ZELVs in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Changsha have a certain priority compared with ICEVs and have certain restrictions on travel road scope and vehicle type compared with the cities with a high openness degree of right-of-way. With the gradual withdrawal of national and local financial subsidies, the right-of-way policy may be a key driving factor for ZECV adoption in the future.

2.1.3. Infrastructure Construction Policy

Infrastructure construction, such as charging infrastructure, charging facility networks, charging stations, battery swapping stations, and hydrogen refueling stations, is an important guarantee for the development of the NEV industry. Under the supportive policies involving charging infrastructure construction (including planning, charging facility subsidies, charging pile subsidies, and charging preferences), the NEV charging infrastructure has seen rapid development and has now built the largest and most extensive-coverage charging infrastructure network in the world. By the end of June 2024, the total number of charging ports in China reached 10.24 million, of which public charging ports accounted for 3.12 million. Comparatively, this number is 19 times the amount of public charging stations in the United States during the same period and 26 times that of Germany, based on data from the end of November 2023 [36,37]. A total of 6328 expressway service areas, which account for 95% of the total service areas, have been equipped with charging facilities, achieving full coverage of charging facilities in Beijing, Shanghai, and 13 other provinces. In addition, in rural areas, 12 provinces, such as Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, and Jiangsu, have achieved full coverage of charging stations on the county scale and full coverage of charging piles on the township scale [38].

2.1.4. Environmental Protection Policy

To improve ambient air quality, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) has actively formulated environmental protection policies in recent years, such as the Implementation Plan for the Synergy of Pollution Reduction and Carbon Reduction, the 14th Five-Year Energy Saving and Emission Reduction Comprehensive Work Plan, and the Action Plan for Continuous Improvement of Air Quality. These policies have proposed to increase the usage of NEVs, and the proportion of ZECVs in different application scenarios in key regions, and put forward expected goals for developing ZECVs.

Moreover, MEE has also taken special measures, such as the Performance Classification Measures for Key Industries in Heavy Pollution Weather, which carry out performance-grading management and implement differentiated measures on management and control during heavy pollution days for enterprises in 39 key industries. Meanwhile, there are ultralow emission measures implemented for key industries with high emissions, such as the steel, cement, and coking industries, with emphasis on the promotion requirements to utilize NEVs or vehicles meeting China VI emission standards for transportation. The implementation of these measures has effectively promoted the development of ZECVs in the industrial field, especially in key industries.

2.2. Results of the Policies: Case Study

Since its designation as one of the first national pilot cities for NEV demonstration and promotion in 2009, Shenzhen has achieved significant milestones in the advancement of NEVs, establishing itself as a leader in the domestic new energy automobile industry [39,40].

Shenzhen has enacted the Shenzhen’s Plan for the Revitalization and Development of the New Energy Vehicle Industry (2009–2015) and the Shenzhen Implementation Plan for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Demonstration Promotion (2009–2012), with a focus on public service as a key area for breakthroughs, actively driving forward the demonstration and promotion of new energy vehicles. By November 2014, a total of 9392 new energy vehicles have been promoted, including 3050 buses. Additionally, there are 81 fast charging stations and nearly 3000 slow charging piles that have been installed [41].

After 2015, Shenzhen continued to enhance the promotion of NEVs, implementing a series of policies and measures that encompassed the entire purchase, operation, and charging process. The city also expedited the deployment of pure electric vehicles in various sectors such as buses, logistics, and sanitation services. In 2017, Shenzhen achieved complete electrification of its bus fleet, establishing itself as the global leader in terms of scale and application of pure electric buses. During the same year, the number of new energy vehicles in Shenzhen reached 156,726 units, including 35,165 new energy logistics vehicles [42].

In response to the challenge posed by air pollution, Shenzhen intensified efforts to promote new energy usage for both light-duty and heavy-duty trucks (particularly dump trucks and tipper trucks). By 2019, a total of 4300 pure electric tipper trucks were put into operation in Shenzhen, a milestone that solidified its position as the city with the largest-scale electric tipper truck operations worldwide [43]. As of late 2020, there were approximately 86,000 new energy logistics vehicles, and the sanitation vehicles had achieved comprehensive pure electrification [43]. By July 2023, the number of new energy vehicles reached 0.86 million with plans to reach 1.3 million by 2025 [44,45].

2.3. Challenges for ZECV Development

In the field of road transportation, the electrification transition of vehicles has become a recognized path for low-carbon development, playing a pivotal role in reducing carbon emissions. Despite rapid advancements in technological routes such as pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, and a gradual increase in the global penetration rate of electric vehicles, zero-emission vehicles, particularly ZECVs, still face numerous challenges in their promotion and application.

(1)

Challenges at the technical level.

BETs have been effectively utilized in short- and medium-distance scenarios, with a typical battery capacity of under 500 kWh, an average energy density of about 180 Wh/kg, and an endurance mileage of 100 to 200 km [46,47,48]. However, in long-distance transportation scenarios, they are still constrained by technical issues, such as short endurance mileage, low energy density, low charging efficiency, and the lack of significant advantages in battery cycle life compared to ICEVs, which hinder their large-scale promotion. As for FCEVs, although technological breakthroughs are gradually being achieved, they are still in the initial stages. Key technologies, such as hydrogen stack systems with laboratory lifetimes close to 15,000 h and power outputs up to 110 kW, have not yet met the criteria for full-scale promotion, and there is still a certain gap with the advanced level of other countries [46,49,50,51]. Moreover, the current endurance mileage of about 300 km also poses challenges in meeting the demands of medium- and long-distance transportation [52,53,54].

(2)

Challenges at the cost level.

Although ZECVs benefit from subsidy policies, they still have a significant cost gap compared to ICEVs in terms of both purchase and operational costs [25,55,56]. For instance, the retail price of BETs generally ranges from CNY 650,000 to 800,000, while that of ICEVs ranges from CNY 400,000 to 450,000. The purchase cost of FCEVs for heavy-duty trucks exceeds CNY 1 million, and their comprehensive costs are approximately 3 to 4 times higher than ICEVs. This cost difference puts ZECVs at a disadvantage in terms of TCO over the entire lifecycle [56,57]. Furthermore, factors such as critical component shortages and the rapid increase in battery prices are directly or indirectly restricting the large-scale promotion of ZECVs due to cost considerations [58].

(3)

Challenges at the infrastructure level.

Although charging stations have achieved an initial scale in China, the limited adoption of high-power charging technology has resulted in lower energy replenishment efficiency [59,60]. The construction of battery swap stations is hindered by the absence of unified planning and technical standard constraints, making it difficult to achieve multi-brand vehicle compatibility [52,61,62,63]. Furthermore, the development of hydrogen refueling stations is sluggish due to high costs, low operational efficiency, an imperfect hydrogen supply and storage system, as well as the reliance on imported key technologies and components [51,53,64,65]. These challenges, collectively restrict the commercialization of ZECVs [66].

3. Methodology and Analysis Framework

3.1. Study Boundary

Commercial vehicles in China have been classified and regulated by various institutions. In this paper, we identified commercial vehicles into six types based on criteria such as vehicle length, passenger capacity, and the maximum authorized total mass (MAM) (see Figure 1) outlined in the Technical Guidelines for Compiling Atmospheric Pollutant Emission Inventory of Road Motor Vehicles (Trial) issued by the MEE [67]. All subsequent analyses are performed within this boundary.

Given their capability for fully electric driving during the operation phase, PHEVs are internationally recognized as zero-emission vehicles in a broader sense. Hence, in this paper, the zero-emission vehicles include BEVs, PHEVs, and FCEVs, while excluding other types of new energy vehicles powered by novel fuels, such as methanol and ammonia.

3.2. Data Sources

In this study, data on the commercial vehicle market from 2010 to 2020, including sales and ownership figures of various types, were sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The data on zero-emission commercial vehicles from 2015 to 2021 were derived from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and vehicle liability insurance database. The data set covers 367 cities across all 31 provinces in China, encompassing a diverse range of types and applications of zero-emission commercial vehicles. To calculate the zero-emission rate in this paper, the number of zero-emission vehicle holdings was divided by the current vehicle holdings.

3.3. Research Framework

To achieve the research objectives, this study adopts a comprehensive research procedure that integrates literature review and data-driven analysis, as illustrated in Figure 2. The research is divided into four stages as follows:

(1) Policy Analysis: Reviews the key policies and measures driving the ZECV transition in China, and analyzes policy effectiveness and the constraints on the development of zero-emission commercial vehicles.

(2) Current Status Analysis: Utilizes statistical data to analyze the current status of ZECV development, with a focus on the progress of ZECVs in different application scenarios considering factors such as technical characteristics, market potential, and policy support.

(3) TCO Analysis and Roadmap Development: Utilizes a literature review approach to perform TCO analysis, combining the current status of ZECV promotion to identify the prioritization of electrification transformations and to develop a roadmap for ZECV promotion across various application scenarios.

(4) Policy Recommendations: Finally, based on the research findings, proposes relevant policy suggestions.

4. Analysis and Results

4.1. Development Status of CVs and ZECVs in China

Figure 3 depicts the historical changes in commercial vehicles and their distribution among different categories. It can be seen that the sales of commercial vehicles remained relatively stable with a slight increase; however, the ownership experienced rapid growth, reaching a total of 33.97 million units. Among the three commercial vehicle types, MLTs have the highest proportion of sales and ownership (approximately 65%), followed by MHTs, and both of them exhibited a slightly upward trend. In comparison, MLPVs have the lowest proportion and demonstrate a significant downward trend.

The rapid growth of the NEV industry has led to a rapid increase in ZECVs. As shown in Figure 4a, the ZECV sales have continuously risen since 2015, in addition to the decline observed in 2019 and 2020 due to the subsidy reductions and the impact of COVID-19. Despite the substantial growth in ZECV ownership, having reached 1.08 million units by 2021, China’s national zero-emission rate remains relatively low at only 3.21% for that year. This indicates that the development process of ZECVs in China is relatively slow and overall shows a point-like scattered regional distribution pattern.

Influenced by factors such as local economic foundation, local policy promotion, operation environment, and climate, there are distinct distribution differences among regions and vehicle types, as illustrated in Figure 4b. The electrification process is notably faster in the southern provinces compared to the north. Regions like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong, which are economically developed, have demonstrated significant efforts in promotion, achieving the highest national zero-emission rates (all exceeding 7%).

In contrast to the distribution of CV ownership, the proportion of zero-emission medium and large passenger vehicles (ZEMLPVs) was the highest, reaching 39.88%, which is consistent with the trends observed in the United States and Europe [18,68,69]. Notably, the promotion and application of ZEMLPVs are particularly pronounced in densely populated and economically developed eastern coastal provinces. Conversely, MHTs have the lowest zero-emission rate at 0.44%, due to their shortage comparative disadvantages in cargo capacity, charging convenience, and TCO parity with ICEVs. Zero-emission medium and heavy trucks (ZEMHTs) are predominantly found in provinces with developed steel and coal industries, such as Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Hebei, where there is a high demand for road transportation. Following the distribution pattern of ZECVs, zero-emission mini and light trucks (ZEMLTs), with a zero-emission rate of 1.52%, are also mainly concentrated in developed areas, such as Tianjin, Shanghai, and Beijing [18].

From a global perspective, China’s development in ZECVs is significantly ahead of the global average (around 2% of zero-emission vehicles’ share in heavy-duty vehicle sales) [70]. Comparing China’s 2021 vehicle sales data with that of the United States in 2023 and Europe in 2022, China’s zero-emission rate for MLPVs is as high as 49.95%, notably exceeding the zero-emission rate of 2.8% for buses in the United States and 13% for the 27 countries of the European Union. The same trend was observed in the sector of MHTs. In China, the zero-emission rate of MHTs was 0.32%, which is higher than 0.1% for medium-duty trucks (Class 4–7 trucks and vans with an MAM of 14,001–33,000 lb) and 0.28% for heavy-duty trucks (Class 8 trucks with an MAM greater than 33,000 lb) in the United States, and 0.3% of heavy trucks (with an MAM greater than 12 t) in Europe [68,69].

4.2. Promotion of ZECVs in Different Application Scenarios

As a vital subsector of NEVs, ZECVs have been subject to a range of promotional policies encompassing goal-oriented guidance, economic incentives, and operational concessions policies. These policies specifically emphasize the deployment of ZECVs in application scenarios such as public transportation, sanitation, logistics, ports, airport ground, and key industry transportation. Furthermore, these six categories represent the primary application scenarios for commercial vehicles and account for approximately 70% of total commercial vehicle ownership. Henceforth, these six application scenarios were selected for analysis in this study to evaluate the promotion of ZECVs.

4.2.1. Transport Vehicles in Key Industries

The transportation distance and vehicle characteristics were analyzed through literature research and enterprise field research for 39 key industries as well as the thermal power industry. The results are shown in Figure 5.

Note: The iron and steel industry include long-process steel and short-process steel; the nonferrous metal smelting industry includes copper smelting, lead and zinc smelting, molybdenum smelting, and secondary copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc smelting.

It is obviously seen that transport vehicles used in the iron and steel, cement, thermal power, and petrochemical industries have the highest proportion, cumulatively accounting for 70.5% of the overall transport vehicle usage. Furthermore, a remarkable 73% of the transport vehicles employed in key industries are classified as MHTs, with the majority (79.8%) having a transportation distance of less than 200 km. Only 27% of employed transport vehicles are categorized as MLTs, and among them, 34.1% have a transportation distance exceeding 200 km. Therefore, the zero-emission rate of MHTs was selected to demonstrate the current status of ZECV promotion in key industries. Figure 6a presents the zero-emission rates of MHTs in 367 cities in China. As the distribution shows, Shenzhen, Tangshan, Beijing, and Yibin exhibit the highest zero-emission rates of MHTs, all exceeding 3%.

Among the top 20 cities illustrated in Figure 6b, over half were in key regions and have implemented the performance-grading policy, which executes differentiated control strategies during periods of heavy pollution based on their performance grade levels. It is noteworthy that driven by the stringent ultralow emission policy and performance-grading policy, Tangshan—a city notably known for its dense cluster of iron and steel enterprises—has achieved a remarkable increase in its zero-emission rate for MHTs, soaring from 0% in 2019 to 13% in 2021. The pioneering deployment of ZEMHTs in Tangshan City, along with the upward trend in zero-emission rates, shows that the implementation of environmental protection policies has effectively encouraged the use of ZECVs in the industrial sector.

4.2.2. Logistics Vehicles

Logistics vehicles can be categorized into intercity and urban logistics based on their transportation areas. Intercity logistic transport is primarily dominated by medium and heavy tractors, vans, general trucks, and semi-trailers. On the contrary, urban logistic transport is mainly dominated by micro and light vans, postal trucks, and tricycles. Therefore, the zero-emission rate of MLTs was selected to demonstrate the promotion status of ZELV. Figure 7a presents the zero-emission rate of MLTs in 367 cities in China.

Among these cities, Ezhou, Chengdu, and Shenzhen cities exhibit the highest zero-emission rates of MLTs. Nearly half of the top 20 cities, illustrated in Figure 7b, were designated as green freight demonstration cities in either 2018 or 2019. Elevating the quantity and proportion of ZECVs, along with granting right-of-way privileges and providing fiscal incentives for ZECVs, are essential strategies for advancing the development of this demonstration project. There was an increase of over 86,000 NEVs used for urban logistics distribution within the 46 designated green freight demonstration cities during 2021 alone. Furthermore, compared to its initial stage, Changsha not only witnessed a growth rate of ZELVs within its central city area by approximately 4.39 times but also experienced an overall reduction in transportation cost per ton-kilometer for urban distribution vehicles by around 18.73% [71]. The upward trend in the zero-emission rate, as well as the rise in the number of ZEMLTs and enhancements in their performance, clearly demonstrate that the green freight distribution demonstration project, especially the right-of-way policy for ZELVs, has an obvious positive impact on promoting ZEMLTs.

4.2.3. Sanitation Vehicles

Road sweep and waste transportation are the main application scenarios of sanitation vehicles (SVs), thus the zero-emission rate of road sweepers and waste trucks was selected to demonstrate the promotion status of zero-emission sanitation vehicles (ZESVs), as summarized in Figure 8a.

The electrification substitution of sanitation vehicles in public areas is gradually achieving an average zero-emission rate of 2.98%. However, the development of ZESVs is significantly unbalanced, with developed provinces such as Beijing and Guangdong exhibiting higher zero-emission rates of SVs, mini and light sanitation vehicles (MLSVs), and medium and heavy sanitation vehicles (MHSVs). It is worth noting that Sichuan and Henan rank third and fourth in zero-emission rates for SVs, following Beijing (23.44%) and Guangdong (10.34%), with rates of 3.87% and 3.37%, respectively. This result can be attributed to two factors: firstly, local governments have put forward specific requirements for the electrification of sanitation vehicles; secondly, these two provinces were home to the headquarters of ZESV manufacturers, which have obvious geographical advantages in their promotion of ZESVs.

Although MHSVs hold a 70.1% share of the SV market, MLSVs exhibit more rapid advancement in NEV adoption, boasting a higher zero-emission rate of 4.31% compared to MHSVs’ 2.43%. Moreover, based on the distribution of electrification rates in Figure 8b, it is evident that a majority of cities have yet to achieve electrification for their SVs, with 62.4%, 67.85%, and 74.39% of cities not utilizing ZESVs, zero-emission mini and light sanitation vehicles, and zero-emission medium and heavy sanitation vehicles, respectively. This indicates that there is substantial potential for the electrification transition of SVs, especially MHSVs.

4.2.4. Buses

Since the initiation of NEVs promotion, China has actively promoted the electrification substitution of buses and established a comprehensive policy system for new energy buses. After over a decade of development, new energy buses have emerged as the most rapidly growing sector in NEV promotion in China, with its penetration rate surging from 10.8% in 2012 to 98.8% in 2022. However, as Figure 9 shows, there is a considerable disparity in the promotion of new energy buses in China.

New energy buses are predominantly concentrated in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, the Pearl River Delta region, and the eastern provinces. In contrast, the promotion of new energy buses is restricted in the northwest, northeast, and southwest regions due to factors such as temperature conditions and fiscal support.

4.2.5. Airport Ground Vehicles

Since the launch of the Blue-Sky Protection Campaign in 2018, which explicitly advocated for expediting the “oil-to-electricity” transformation of airport vehicles, remarkable progress has been made toward electrifying civil aviation vehicles and equipment, leading to the steady increase in electric vehicles and charging facilities (see Figure 10). By the end of 2022, approximately 12,000 electric vehicles and 3600 charging facilities were deployed in airports, achieving a commendable zero-emission rate of 24% for airport vehicles. Notably, considering the prolonged service life of airport vehicles, with around 32% of Chengdu Shuangliu Airport’s having served for over 10 years, there is an anticipated surge in demand for introducing NEVs or replacing existing vehicles with NEVs.

4.2.6. Port Vehicles

Vehicles at ports are primarily used for the transportation and transfer of containers and bulk cargo, including container trailers, tractors, and dump trucks. Despite their suitability for NEV application, it has been observed that the new energy port vehicles remain underutilized, resulting in a relatively low zero-emission rate of port vehicles. An analysis of 47 ports demonstrated that the average zero-emission rate of transport vehicles in these ports was 23%, with an average of 20% for coastal ports and 10% for inland ports. Among the 25 coastal ports, Tianjin Port takes on a leadership role in port vehicle electrification, with a notably high zero-emission rate of 65%. Yancheng Port and Lianyungang Port follow behind with zero-emission rates of 32% and 24%, respectively. Similarly, among the 22 inland ports, only Wuhan Port and Jiujiang Port have zero-emission rates exceeding the average, which are 30% and 12%, respectively.

In summary, there are great differences in the electrification of commercial vehicles in different application scenarios affected by vehicle characteristics. As a primary vehicle for public sector electrification, buses have demonstrated a significant impact on the promotion of electrification, achieving the highest zero-emission rates (over 90% in Guangdong and Hunan provinces). Port vehicles and airport ground vehicles demonstrate relatively favorable progress in electrification promotion due to their advantages for electrification such as short transport distance, fixed operating routes, and low speeds. Additionally, sanitation vehicles, like buses, are centrally procured by local governments and have strong advantages for electrification. However, they have shown poor progress in electrification promotion and exhibit significant regional disparities. Conversely, due to the high demand for long-distance transportation, as well as the current shortages of NEVs in terms of vehicle kilometers traveled, battery life, and charging time, the promotion of ZECVs in the logistics transportation scenario (especially intercity logistics) and the key industries transportation scenario has proven least effective.

4.3. Roadmap Design for ZECV Promotion

4.3.1. TCO Analysis

The cost differential between NEVs and traditional fuel vehicles is a key factor influencing the electrification process [72]. Therefore, conducting a comprehensive TCO analysis of NEVs and traditional fuel vehicles, as well as predicting TCO parity-time, can significantly contribute to advancing the adoption of NEVs. Such analyses provide a foundation for the development of future policies by the government, enterprises, and consumers [73].

The TCO analysis results comparing zero-emission commercial vehicles to traditional fuel vehicles are depicted in Figure 11 [57,73,74,75,76,77]. It can be observed that there is a significant variation in research results due to the differences in the region, evaluation period, and cost type during TCO analysis (see

Table 3. TCO analysis parameters.

Research Year	Cost Type	Vehicle Type	Evaluation Period	Annual Distance Traveled	References
2019	Capital costs (Vehicle capital cost; vehicle purchase Taxes; Financing costs); Fuel costs; Maintenance costs; Midlife costs; Vehicle registration; Residual values	light-duty truck	12 year	15,000 miles	[73]
		medium-duty truck	12 year	24,000 miles
		heavy-duty truck	12 year	54,000 miles
2018	personnel wages, vehicle cost, road use charges, maintenance and repair, insurance, fuel/electricity prices, supercharging	heavy-duty truck	5 year	150,000 km	[76]
2020	capital cost; fuel cost; maintenance cost; operation costs	heavy-duty truck	15 year	78,000 miles	[77]
2020	vehicle cost and depreciation, financing, fuel costs, insurance costs, maintenance and repair costs, taxes and fees, and other operational costs	heavy-duty truck	10 year	78,000 miles	[75]
		heavy-duty truck	10 year	51,400 miles
		medium-duty truck	10 year	14,400 miles
2024	component costs for the powertrain, energy storage unit, and the rest of the truck (glider) operating costs: vehicle taxes, levies, fuel costs, insurance costs, and maintenance and repair costs	medium-duty truck	5 year	29,900 km	[57]
		heavy-duty truck	5 year	106,000 km
2020	initial purchase cost, operating costs (energy and maintenance costs), depreciation of the vehicle and the batteries	light-duty truck	5 year	24,000 miles	[78]
		medium-duty truck	5 year	65,000 miles
		heavy-duty truck	5 year	100,000 miles

for details). During the evaluation period, the TCO per kilometer for BEVs was higher than that of ICEVs by −0.79 to 16.68 CNY/km; while for FCEVs, it was higher by 1.71 to 39.55 CNY/km. Specifically, for heavy-duty trucks, the TCO for BEVs was higher than that of ICEVs by −0.92 to 7.29 CNY/km, and for FCEVs was 2.43 to 13.86 CNY/km.

Moreover,

Table 4. TCO parity prediction for BEVs and FCEVs.

Vehicle Type	BEV	FCEV	References
all segments	2021–2030	After 2030	[74]
heavy-duty straight truck	2024–2025
heavy-duty dump truck	2026–2027
heavy-duty tractor-trailer	2029–2030
heavy-duty truck	2020–2024	After 2035	[73]
light-duty truck	2024–2030
heavy-duty truck	2027	/	[75]
heavy-duty truck	2020	/	[77]
heavy-duty straight truck	2030	After 2035	[79]
heavy-duty tractor-trailer	2030
heavy-duty dump truck	2025
light-duty truck	2020
heavy-duty truck	2035–2040	/	[80]
medium- and heavy-duty truck	2025	/	[81]

presents predictions of TCO parity of BEVs and FCEVs with ICEVs. It is anticipated that BEVs will achieve TCO cost parity with ICEVs by 2030; whereas FCEVs appear likely to reach TCO parity after 2035. However, with decreasing the vehicle cost and hydrogen prices in the later period, it is expected that the TCO gap between FCEVs and ICEVs will narrow significantly with the potential to achieve parity earlier.

4.3.2. Technical Routes for ZECV Promotion

Based on the current status analysis of zero-emission promotion in various application scenarios, and taking into account factors such as the vehicle ownership volume, the strength of zero-emission policy support, and TCO assessment, priority levels for ZECV promotion were divided, focusing on the feasibility and economic viability of zero-emission transition. The results are illustrated in Figure 12. The size of the bubbles intuitively represents the current state of zero-emission promotion in different application scenarios, with larger bubbles indicating more significant progress toward zero-emission.

The commercial vehicles are categorized into four levels based on the electrification advancement, with the intensity of promotion decreasing from the highest to the lowest level. Characterized by a high rate of electrification and robust policy support, coupled with the characteristics of moderate daily mileage and relatively concentrated driving routes, buses exhibit a strong level of electrification applicability in terms of both the feasibility and economic viability of zero-emission transitions [26,82]. Therefore, they are classified as Level 1. At present, the newly sold buses have essentially achieved full electrification.

Urban logistics vehicles and MLSVs, due to the high maturity of electrification technology and pronounced TCO benefits, and being among the vehicle types specifically highlighted in national and local policies for priority electrification, have clear advantages in both economic and electrification feasibility aspects. Thus, they are classified as Level 2. Additionally, although the ownership of vehicles in airports and ports is relatively small, their frequent use, fixed operational routes, and concentrated usage characteristics make them highly feasible for zero-emission transition. Despite facing economic challenges, they exhibit a high applicability for electrification, and thus they are also classified as Level 2. Therefore, in the roadmap design, Level 2 will be the object of commercial vehicle electrification, which is recommended to be promoted on a large scale.

MHSVs, constrained by technical factors (such as endurance and load capacity), and high acquisition costs, demonstrate a moderate level of electrification applicability. They are categorized as Level 3 and require large-scale promotion. Lastly, a small portion of intercity logistics vehicles and transport vehicles in key industries with high ownership encounter technical challenges, operational complexity, as well as a high TCO, which together contribute to a mild level of electrification applicability. Thus, they are classified as Level 4 and recommended to be promoted through demonstration projects.

5. Conclusions and Policy Recommendations

5.1. Conclusions

This study innovatively and systematically analyzes the promotion policies and progress of ZECVs, with a particular emphasis on assessing the current promotion status from various perspectives. By combining TCO analysis, this study outlines a future strategic roadmap for ZECVs in diverse application scenarios. The findings facilitate an in-depth understanding of the current status and policies in ZECVs development, providing an essential scientific foundation for advancing the low-carbon transformation of the commercial vehicle sector, and ultimately contributing to global efforts toward sustainable transportation.

Firstly, a comprehensive set of policies, including subsidies, right-of-way, environmental protection, and infrastructure development, constitutes the foundational policies for promoting the development of NEVs. Guided by these policies, Shenzhen has emerged as the national leader in NEV adoption, achieving the full electrification of buses and large-scale promotion of zero-emission sanitation trucks and tractors.

Secondly, despite the steady growth in the number of commercial vehicles, the overall development of ZECVs is slow. At the regional level, the process of ZECV development in the southern region is better than that in the northern region, and the promotion effect is significant in developed areas such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong. At the vehicle level, MLPVs are the main vehicle type for electrification promotion, with nearly 40% of the zero-emission rate, while the promotion of zero-emission trucks is slower, with the national zero-emission rates of MLTs and MHTs being only 1.52% and 0.44%, respectively. At the application scenario level, there are significant differences in the electrification promotion. The electrification effect in buses is significant, with the zero-emission rates in areas exceeding 90%. The average zero-emission rates for vehicles in the airports and ports are 24% and 16%, respectively. Although the electrification process of SVs, logistics vehicles, and transport vehicles in key industries is relatively lagging, policy support, demonstration guidance, and local industrial advantages can effectively promote the development of electrification in these scenarios.

Thirdly, buses are categorized as Level 1, which has the highest priority for zero-emission transition, followed by urban logistics vehicles, MLSVs, as well as vehicles in airports and ports. Conversely, intercity logistics vehicles and transport vehicles in key industries have the lowest priority for electrification and are designated as Level 4.

5.2. Policy Recommendations

Based on the findings, this paper proposed the following policy recommendations for accelerating the implementation of ZECVs, promoting the sustainable growth of NEVs, and realizing the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.

Firstly, it is essential to develop differentiated policy measures tailored to the specific characteristics and requirements of commercial vehicles in different application scenarios. In sectors such as sanitation and buses, where there is a clear correlation between economic development and the adoption of ZECVs, it is recommended to continue promoting the use of zero-emission sanitation vehicles and buses. Additionally, for economically underdeveloped areas, there should be a focus on providing additional policy support and financial incentives. For airport and port scenarios, it is advisable to select appropriate electrification technologies based on practical considerations while integrating the promotion of ZECVs as a key performance indicator in green airport and port evaluation systems. For logistics transportation, expanding toll fee reduction policies on highways is recommended. Furthermore, granting right-of-way privileges to zero-emission vehicles within restricted areas and allowing their use in public transit lanes would also be beneficial, especially for urban distribution vehicles. For transport scenarios in key industries, considering the positive influence of environmental protection policies, setting and gradually increasing the requirements for the proportion of ZECVs used in alignment with industry-specific characteristics is recommended.

Secondly, given that the commercial vehicle market will continue to be dominated by ICEVs in the short and medium term, it is crucial to prioritize advancing pollution reduction of traditional commercial vehicles while also promoting ZECVs. This approach is essential for improving air quality and accelerating the achievement of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. Therefore, it is recommended to promptly formulate and introduce the next phase of emission standards, accelerate the elimination process of old vehicles, and simultaneously promote the upgrade of fuel consumption standards. Particularly for transport vehicles in key industries, vehicles that meet China VI emission standards should be actively promoted before full electrification.

Thirdly, it is recommended to focus on enhancing the energy density and lifespan of electric truck batteries, and strengthening the research and promotion of high-power fuel cell stacks and high-density hydrogen storage systems. For these purposes, continuous financial and fiscal support should be provided. Additionally, efforts should be made to promote the adjustment of transportation structures, and orderly promote the development of vehicle and battery leasing markets, which collectively promote the widespread adoption and sustainable development of ZECVs.

5.3. Limitations and Future Research

However, this study has several limitations. Firstly, the data only cover 367 cities in China and do not extend to all regions, leading to an insufficient data volume. Therefore, further research and an expansion of the data collection scope are needed to ensure that the data obtained is sufficient and effective. Secondly, the current study’s classification of commercial vehicle application scenarios is relatively broad, failing to consider the differences in transportation distances, operational environments, and other factors within the same scenario. Thus, future research should refine these classifications by incorporating characteristics. For example, sanitation vehicles could be categorized into more detailed scenarios, such as “sanitation-waste transfer-community to collection station”, “sanitation-waste transfer-collection station to disposal site”, and “sanitation-road sweeping”. This approach would enable a more accurate analysis of the promotion and identification of challenges faced by ZECVs under various operating conditions. Lastly, this study has not evaluated the potential impact of commercial vehicle electrification on air quality improvement, including reductions in pollutants and carbon emissions, as well as environmental health benefits, which should be investigated in future studies to provide a further understanding of the comprehensive benefits of ZECVs adoption.