Ecological Efficiency Evaluation and Development Trend Prediction of Marine Aquaculture Industry: A Case Study of Weihai City, China

The marine aquaculture industry holds a significant position in the development of Weihai City’s fishing industry, with its ecological efficiency having a direct impact on the sustainable progress of the regional fishing sector. Utilizing a three-stage DEA model as an unexpected output model, this study systematically assessed the ecological efficiency of Weihai City’s marine aquaculture industry. By employing kernel density estimation, we analyzed the temporal dynamic evolution of ecological efficiency within the marine aquaculture industry. The results indicate that the overall ecological efficiency of marine aquaculture in Weihai City has improved to some extent, influenced by environmental factors such as government support, urbanization level, and regional economic development level. After removing environmental and random factors, it was found that the overall ecological efficiency of the marine aquaculture industry in Weihai City shows a more stable upward trend. Furthermore, using a gray dynamic model, GM (1, 1), we predicted the trend of ecological efficiency in the marine aquaculture industry. The findings indicate that, with the progressive adoption of advanced aquaculture technologies, the ecological efficiency of Weihai City’s marine aquaculture is anticipated to continue growing in the future. However, the pace of growth has decelerated. To maximize ecological efficiency, it is imperative to optimize resource allocation, foster technological innovation, and elevate awareness regarding ecological and environmental preservation. By assessing the ecological efficiency of Weihai City’s marine aquaculture industry, this article aims to shed light on the industry’s progress, thereby promoting its high-quality and sustainable development.