1. Introduction
IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is the most frequent primary glomerulonephritis worldwide [
1], first described by Berger in 1968 [
2]. Its diagnosis requires the demonstration of predominant mesangial IgA deposits on kidney biopsy [
3]. The prevalence of IgAN varies across the world, with the highest values in East Asia, reaching 40% of biopsies in Japan, through 25% in Europe, 12% in the United States, and below 5% in Africa [
4]. Studies with long-term follow-up found that IgAN is related to poor renal outcomes [
5], and about 30–40% of IgAN patients progress to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) within 10–25 years [
6]. IgAN is described by a highly variable clinical course from an entirely benign incidental condition, with the absence of proteinuria and solely erythrocyturia in sediment, to severe nephrotic syndrome and rapidly progressive kidney failure [
1].
There is a need for establishing robust biomarkers for IgA nephropathy to aid with diagnosis, treatment decisions, and risk prediction for progressive disease [
7].
The Oxford Classification of IgA Nephropathy (MEST score) offers an opportunity to use histology for the prediction of renal outcome, independently of proteinuria, blood pressure, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) [
8]. The scale includes mesangial hypercellularity(M), endocapillary hypercellularity (E), segmental sclerosis (S), interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy (T), and presence of crescents (C).The European Validation Study of the Oxford Classification of IgAN (VALIGA) confirmed the association of M1, S1, and T1/2 with renal outcomes, as well as the association of M1 and E1 with subsequent increase in proteinuria [
9]. The combination of MEST score with blood pressure, proteinuria, and eGFR at the time of biopsy predicted the composite renal outcome similar to using clinical data over 2 years of follow-up [
10].
Recently, a new risk-prediction tool, including eGFR, blood pressure, use of immunosuppression, angiotensin system blockers (RAS), and proteinuria at the time of biopsy, while also incorporating MEST score, was proposed. It accurately predicted the risk of a 50% decline in eGFR or development of ESKD up to 7 years after biopsy [
11].
In this single-center, retrospective study, the clinical and pathological data of IgAN were analyzed to assess the predictability of both a decline in eGFR and a reduction in proteinuria.
4. Discussion
IgA nephropathy is the most prevalent primary glomerulonephritis, leading to ESRD; however, due to its heterogeneity, it is challenging to accurately identify patients at high risk of kidney function deterioration. In addition, it should be noted that not all patients may benefit from aggressive immunosuppressive therapy [
15]. On this basis, the need for a tool to help predict the course of the disease and identify patients at risk of developing ESRD is extremely important. There is evidence that several clinical features at presentation may predict the risk of progression. The most important factors include the level of proteinuria, hypertension, and renal function at the biopsy [
16]. The Oxford Classification of IgAN provides data derived from renal biopsy assessment, including the degree of mesangial hypercellularity (M), endocapillary hypercellularity (E), segmental sclerosis (S), interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy (T), and presence of crescents (C). In the VALIGA cohort, the value of the MEST score was verified to predict the degree of renal function deterioration, as well as survival without ESRD, or a 50% reduction in initial GFR [
17].
In our study, a significant correlation was found between the deterioration of renal function, as expressed by a decline in eGFR by 50%, compared to the baseline values, and the level of proteinuria. The group with a 50% decrease in eGFR had significantly lower concentrations of both serum albumin (2.5 ± 0.6 g/dL vs. 3.6 ± 0.9 g/dL,
p = 0.002) and total protein (4.8 ± 0.9 g/dL vs. 6.2 ± 1.2 g/dL,
p = 0.004) at baseline. It was accompanied by more severe protein loss, as expressed by UPCR (3.6 ± 2.5 vs. 1.7 ± 2.1,
p = 0.02). This finding is consistent with previous papers, pointing out the level of proteinuria as a crucial factor in the progression of renal insufficiency among IgAN patients [
18].
Moreover, there was a correlation between the presence of endocapillary hypercellularity (E1) and the risk of eGFR deterioration. In both univariate and multivariate logistic regression models, the presence of E1 increased the odds ratio of eGFR decline. On the one hand, this finding is in accordance with a study published by Edstrom et al., showing that the presence of endocapillary hypercellularity was associated with poor renal outcome, expressed by end-stage renal disease or eGFR reduction >50% [
19]. Similar findings were presented in a paper by Chakera et al., where, in the multivariate regression, baseline eGFR, proteinuria, and endocapillary hypercellularity were independent predictors of time to ESRD and a rapid decline in eGFR [
20]. Reversely, conclusions based on an analysis of the VALIGA cohort confirmed the value of the MEST score in predicting the rate of renal function deterioration, but the E1 score did not predict any of the outcomes [
17], including kidney function decline.
Platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) calculated as platelet count divided by lymphocyte count has been established as a novel marker of malignancies, cardiovascular diseases, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [
21,
22,
23]. In Kaplan–Meier analysis, PLR more than 137 was found to be a predictive factor of poor renal outcome ESRD [
24]. Both NLR and PLR were assessed as markers of inflammatory states, and their prognostic significance has been established in several conditions such as rheumatoid arthritis, solid tumors, and coronary artery disease. NLR and PLT reflect the excess of inflammatory response, based on complement activations and the production of proinflammatory components such as C3a and C5a, responsible for the migration of macrophages and lymphocytes. The chronic inflammation localized within the glomeruli leads to the production of extracellular matrix components, consequently initiating progressive tubulointerstitial fibrosis [
25].
In our work, PLR was shown, in univariate analysis, to have a predictive influence on eGFR deterioration.
It is also worth mentioning that patients with endocapillary lesions were more likely to receive immunosuppressive treatment. In our study, 18 patients were treated with prednisone already at the time of biopsy, and the number of these patients increased after the diagnosis. There are two studies in which no patient received immunosuppression, and both reported that E1 was independently associated with loss of renal function [
20,
26]. Among those who received no immunosuppression, the rate of renal function decline was 5.4 ± 11.1 mL/min/1.73 m
2 per year in those with endocapillary lesions, compared with 2.6 ± 5.1 mL/min/1.73 m
2 per year in those without endocapillary proliferation (
p = 0.02) [
21]. These studies suggest that the employment of immunosuppression may mask the predictive value of endocapillary hypercellularity in renal outcomes and is only useful in situations where immunosuppression was not applied [
27]. In our paper, the number of patients receiving immunosuppression before biopsy did not differ in correlation to the degree of endocapillary hypercellularity.
Using multivariate analysis, we found an influence of E1 on eGFR decline, whereas serum albumin concentration had a protective impact. The second multivariate model involving serum albumin concentration and interstitial fibrosis had an impact on eGFR worsening.
In our study, we also found that the presence of E1 influences blood pressure control. Although the number of patients with diagnosed hypertension did not differ between group E1 and E0, we observed a statistically significant difference in systolic blood pressure. Patients with the presence of E1 demonstrated a mean SBP of 137 ± 18 mmHg, in contrast to those with E0 who presented a mean SBP of 129 ± 15 mmHg. The higher values of blood pressure might be related to more active kidney disease, stimulating hormonal disorders responsible for blood pressure control, including activation of the renin–angiotensin–aldosterone system.
It is worth mentioning that, although the presence of T lesions in our group did not reach statistical significance, both in the univariate and in the multivariate logistic regression models, we were able to prove that the extent of interstitial fibrosis, at the time of biopsy, influenced the deterioration of renal function. It is now a widely accepted paradigm that the degree of renal fibrosis correlates well with kidney function, both in native kidneys and in kidney grafts [
28]. The explanation of this difference might be the fact that, in the Oxford classification of IgAN, a T0 score corresponds to tubular atrophy/interstitial fibrosis <25% [
12]. In relation to the MEST-C Oxford classification of IgAN, all those values are within the T0 score. In our work, the mean extent of interstitial fibrosis was 6.6% ± 2.2% in the group without eGFR decline vs. 11.1% ± 3.2% in the group with 50% eGFR deterioration. Similarly, in patients in whom a reduction of proteinuria below 1.0 g/24 h was achieved, the extent of interstitial fibrosis reached 4.0% ± 5.3% vs. 12.9% ± 12.3% among those in whom no such reduction was achieved. To explain those discrepancies, future studies should be conducted with the use of digital pathology tools.
Since the level of proteinuria, especially exceeding 1.0 g per day, is a key factor of renal insufficiency progression [
17], we focused on patients in whom daily urinary protein excretion fell below 1.0 g. Furthermore, when renal function deteriorated, we found a statistically significant correlation, in logistic regression, between E1 and the degree of interstitial fibrosis and the likelihood of reduced protein excretion in the urine. Both factors were negatively associated with the odds ratio of proteinuria reduction <1.0 g/24 h. A crucial key factor, connecting proteinuria and progression of kidney insufficiency, is the extent of interstitial fibrosis. It is known that the proteins passing the glomerular filtration barrier have the potential to initiate the migration of inflammatory cells (mainly macrophages), consequently inducing interstitial fibrosis [
29].
The main limitation of this study was its small sample size. Although IgA nephropathy is the most common type of primary glomerulonephritis, it is generally a rare disease in the entire population. All available patients with biopsy-proven IgA nephropathy and at least 6 months of follow-up were included in the study, after excluding patients with secondary causes. The strength of the study is that we presented the results from one center that provides care for the large region of southwestern Poland and concerns an ethnically homogeneous group. Additionally, the same approach was used to treat all participants.