Populism on the Web: Presidential Elections in Bolivia, Ecuador, Peru, and Colombia (2020–2022)
Abstract
:1. Introduction
1.1. Latin American Populism in Its Communicative Dimension
1.2. Twitter as a Populist Space?
1.3. Theoretical Approaches to Populism
2. Materials and Methods
- How is the “identity” of the political actors (leader, people, and others) constructed in the candidates’ discourse on Twitter?
- What actions, purposes, norms, and values are attributed to the political actors (leader, people, and others) in the candidates’ discourse on Twitter?
- What are the characteristics of the leaders’ discourse on Twitter when it refers to the people, the region, or the nation?
- How are the relationships of leader–people and people–others constructed in the candidates’ discourse on Twitter?
- Are there any differences in the discourse based on ideological or national axes?
3. Results
3.1. Context: Characteristics of the Candidates’ Twitter Account (Table 3)
Profile | Fans | Engagement | Post interactions | Total: Reactions Comments Shared | Number of Posts | Follower Growth (Absolute) | Follower Growth (In%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Luis Arce | 53.107 | 10.99% | 1.09% | 142,784 | 292 | 11,673 | 28.1% |
Carlos Mesa | 635,083 | 0.46% | 0.13% | 84,197 | 106 | 5826 | 0.3% |
Andres Arauz | 113,056 | 27.02% | 2.76% | 836,444 | 284 | 12,661 | 12.61% |
Guillermo Lasso | 716,529 | 4.37% | 0.05% | 874,052 | 2356 | 41,098 | 6.08% |
Pedro Castillo | 85,307 | 16.84% | 5.81% | 325,332 | 84 | - | - |
Keiko Fujimori | 1,152,959 | 1.61% | 0.65% | 529,593 | 72 | 36,830 | 3.3% |
Gustavo Petro | 5,230,212 | 9.33% | 0.24% | 10,444,622 | 851 | 302,644 | 6.14% |
Rodolfo Hernández | 391,721 | 26.51% | 2.44% | 2,011,890 | 239 | 170,646 | 77.19% |
3.2. Results by Category
3.3. Results by Competition Axes
3.3.1. Bolivia
Luis Arce: Nationalism and Identity
Carlos Mesa: Citizen Community vs. Corrupts
3.3.2. Ecuador
Guillermo Lasso: The Least Populist
Andres Arauz: Rich vs. Poor
3.3.3. Peru
Pedro Castillo: The People vs. the Elite
Keiko Fujimori: Democrats vs. Communists
3.3.4. Colombia
Gustavo Petro: The Working Class vs. the Fascists and the Corrupt
Rodolfo Hernández: The Outsider
4. Discussion
Author Contributions
Funding
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
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Candidate | Time Analyzed | Tweets Posted | Tweets Analyzed | |
---|---|---|---|---|
BOLIVIA | ||||
Luis Arce | @luchoxbolivia | 20 September to 18 October 2020 | 292 | 87 |
Carlos Mesa | @carlosdmesag | 106 | 44 | |
ECUADOR | ||||
Guillermo Lasso | @lassoguillermo | 14 March to 11 April 2021 | 2356 | 164 |
Andres Arauz | @ecuarauz | 284 | 125 | |
PERU | ||||
Pedro Castillo | @pedrocastillote | 9 May to 6 June 2021 | 84 | 31 |
Keiko Fujimori | @keikofujimori | 72 | 37 | |
COLOMBIA | ||||
Gustavo Petro | @petrogustavo | 29 May to 19 June 2022 | 851 | 200 |
Rodolfo Hernández | @ingrodolfohdez | 239 | 168 | |
Total | 4284 | 856 |
CATEGORY | DEFINITION |
---|---|
1. Catastrophe (crisis) | The populist discourse tries to exploit existing resentment in the population; the populists discuss economic the crisis and social and political chaos due to corruption. The aim is to describe a disastrous situation and define oneself as “the savior”. |
2. Victims | “People” or the candidate are victimized by the existing conditions or actions carried out by their opponent(s) or the current government. |
3. Villains | Villains are characterized as those who have acted or act against the “people” or the candidate to cause them physical, moral, or economic damage. |
4. Heroes | The candidate or his/her group defines himself/herself as a savior for the crisis. |
5. Candidate’s values | Positive values of the candidate are exalted to build a positive representation of himself or herself. |
6. Opponent’s values | Negative values of the opponent are exalted constructing a negative representation of the other. |
7. Playing with opposite perspectives | Positive aspects of the candidate are exalted, while negative aspects of the other are exalted. |
8. Exaltation of national values | Positive national values are exalted. |
9. Exaltation of regional people’s values | Positive regional values are exalted. |
10. Exaltation of the local people’s values | Here, we must differentiate “pueblo” from “gente”. “Pueblo” is a collective entity that highlights the people’s town, village, and/or their working-class values. Left-wing politicians frequently use the term “pueblo”. However, some right-wing politicians use the word “gente” to refer to a confederation of individuals. “Gente” emphasizes individual civil rights. |
11. 3P Model: Principles, politics, personal experiences | The personal experiences and principles of the candidate as if they were those of the “real people”, which gives him/her the “real authority” to carry out policies. Here, the identity of the candidate or opponent is related to their possible future actions in the government. |
12. Meta-framing | It consists of changing how arguments are framed. Moving, for example, from what affects the candidate to what affects the rival. The focus of attention thus shifts from candidate to rival. |
13. Emotions | Discourse generates positive emotions toward the candidate or negative emotions toward the opponent. |
14. Promises | The candidate offers to make changes (social, economic, or structural) through actions, policies, etc. |
15. Clientelism | The candidate offers excessive money, goods, etc., to specific groups in exchange for their votes. |
Rank | Castillo | Arce | Araoz | Petro | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Category | Percentage | Category | Percentage | Category | Percentage | Category | Percentage | |
1 | Heroes | 71% | Emotions | 49% | Emotions | 80.8% | Candidate’s values | 66% |
2 | Candidate’s values | 71% | Promises | 48.3% | Candidate’s values | 77.6% | Emotions | 47% |
3 | Promises | 71% | Candidate’s values | 37.9% | Promises | 73.6% | Catastrophe | 30.5% |
4 | Catastrophe | 51.6% | Catastrophe | 34.5% | Catastrophe | 49.6% | Heroes | 28.5% |
5 | Emotions | 48.4% | Victims | 24.1% | Heroes | 46.4% | Opponent’s values | 27% |
6 | Playing with opposite perspectives | 41.9% | Exaltation of regional values | 16.1% | Victims | 42.4% | Promises | 25.5% |
7 | Villains | 38.7% | Exaltation of local people’s values | 14.9% | Villains | 40% | Villains | 24% |
8 | Victims | 29% | Exaltation of national values | 14.9% | Opponent’s values | 35.2% | Playing with opposite perspectives | 23% |
9 | Opponent’s values | 29% | Villains | 14.9% | Playing with opposite perspectives | 20% | Exaltation of local people’s values | 21.5% |
10 | Exaltation of local people’s values | 25.8% | Heroes | 14.9% | Exaltation of local people’s values | 16% | Victims | 16% |
11 | 3P Model | 16.1% | Opponent’s values | 6.9% | Exaltation of regional values | 11.2% | Exaltation of regional values | 12% |
12 | Exaltation of national values | 9.7% | 3P Model: | 2.3% | Clientelism | 4% | Exaltation of national values | 2.5% |
13 | Meta-framing | 6.5% | Playing with opposite perspectives | 1.1% | 3P Model | 2.4% | Clientelism | 2.5% |
14 | Exaltation of regional values | 3.2% | Meta-framing | 0 | Exaltation of national values | 1.6% | 3P Model | 1.5% |
15 | Clientelism | 0 | Clientelism | 0 | Meta-framing | 0 | Meta-framing | 1% |
Rank | Fujimori | Mesa | Lasso | Hernández | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Category | Percentage | Category | Percentage | Category | Percentage | Category | Percentage | |
1 | Heroes | 59.5% | Catastrophe | 59.1% | Emotions | 23.2% | Candidate’s values | 55.4% |
2 | Candidate’s values | 59.5% | Villains | 59.1% | Exaltation of national values | 23.8% | Promises | 36.9% |
3 | Emotions | 54.1% | Emotions | 52.3% | Promises | 20.1% | Emotions | 21.4% |
4 | Promises | 40.5% | Opponent’s values | 50% | Candidate’s values | 17.7% | Heroes | 18.5% |
5 | Catastrophe | 35.1% | Promises | 38.6% | Heroes | 4.3% | Villains | 17.9% |
6 | Victims | 32.4% | Heroes | 36.4% | Catastrophe | 2.4% | Playing with opposite perspectives | 16.7% |
7 | Clientelism | 32.4% | Candidate’s values | 27.3% | Exaltation of regional values | 1.2% | Opponent’s values | 11.9% |
8 | Opponent’s values | 29.7% | Playing with opposite perspectives | 22.7% | 3P Model | 1.2% | Victims | 7.7% |
9 | Villains | 18.9% | Victims | 13.6% | Meta-framing | 0.6% | Catastrophe | 6.5% |
10 | Playing with opposite perspectives | 13.5% | Meta-framing | 11.4% | Playing with opposite perspectives | 0.6% | Exaltation of national values | 6% |
11 | Exaltation of local people’s values | 5.4% | Exaltation of local people’s values | 6.8% | Victims | 0 | Meta-framing | 3.6% |
12 | Exaltation of regional values | 2.7% | Exaltation of regional values | 6.8% | Villains | 0 | Clientelism | 3.6% |
13 | Meta-framing | 2.7% | Exaltation of national values | 2.3% | Opponent’s values | 0 | Exaltation of regional values | 1.8% |
14 | Exaltation of national values | 0 | Clientelism | 2.3% | Exaltation of local people’s values | 0 | Exaltation of local people’s values | 1.2% |
15 | 3P Model | 0 | 3P Model | 0 | Clientelism | 0 | 3P Model | 1.2% |
Castillo | Arce | Arauz | Petro | Fujimori | Mesa | Lasso | Hernández | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Castillo | Correlation | 1 | |||||||
Sig. (Bilateral) | |||||||||
Arce | Correlation | 0.54 * | 1 | ||||||
Sig. (Bilateral) | 0.037 | ||||||||
Arauz | Correlation | 0.86 ** | 0.75 ** | 1 | |||||
Sig. (Bilateral) | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||
Petro | Correlation | 0.86 ** | 0.64 * | 0.18 ** | 1 | ||||
Sig. (Bilateral) | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | ||||||
Fujimori | Correlation | 0.79 ** | 0.51* | 0.89 ** | 0.82 ** | 1 | |||
Sig. (Bilateral) | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||
Mesa | Correlation | 0.73 ** | 0.71 | 0.77 ** | 0.81 ** | 0.64 * | 1 | ||
Sig. (Bilateral) | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | ||||
Lasso | Correlation of | 0.71 | 0.61* | 0.11 | 0.39 | 0.30 | 0.22 | 1 | |
Sig. (Bilateral) | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.28 | 0.44 | |||
Hernández | Correlation | 0.83 ** | 0.86 | 0.81 ** | 0.79 ** | 0.78 ** | 0.71 ** | 0.47 | 1 |
Sig. (Bilateral) | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
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Quevedo-Stuva, M.-I.; Tovar-Gil, G.; Mila-Maldonado, A. Populism on the Web: Presidential Elections in Bolivia, Ecuador, Peru, and Colombia (2020–2022). Societies 2023, 13, 58. https://doi.org/10.3390/soc13030058
Quevedo-Stuva M-I, Tovar-Gil G, Mila-Maldonado A. Populism on the Web: Presidential Elections in Bolivia, Ecuador, Peru, and Colombia (2020–2022). Societies. 2023; 13(3):58. https://doi.org/10.3390/soc13030058
Chicago/Turabian StyleQuevedo-Stuva, Maria-Ines, Gloria Tovar-Gil, and Andrea Mila-Maldonado. 2023. "Populism on the Web: Presidential Elections in Bolivia, Ecuador, Peru, and Colombia (2020–2022)" Societies 13, no. 3: 58. https://doi.org/10.3390/soc13030058
APA StyleQuevedo-Stuva, M. -I., Tovar-Gil, G., & Mila-Maldonado, A. (2023). Populism on the Web: Presidential Elections in Bolivia, Ecuador, Peru, and Colombia (2020–2022). Societies, 13(3), 58. https://doi.org/10.3390/soc13030058