Brace for Impact: Facing the AI Revolution and Geopolitical Shifts in a Future Societal Scenario for 2025–2040
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Theoretical Framework
2.2. Research Design
2.2.1. Delphi Method
- Step 1: Identification of Issues and ObjectivesThe initial step in the Delphi process involved identifying the key issues and setting clear objectives for the development of future scenarios. This task was undertaken by the research team, who reviewed the existing literature and conducted preliminary analyses to pinpoint the most significant trends and uncertainties within the fields of AI and geopolitical developments. These identified issues were intended to guide the entire Delphi process. The identified issues and objectives were then presented to the experts in subsequent rounds for verification and further refinement.
- Step 2: Selection of ExpertsA panel of 30 senior specialists was selected from leading global organisations known for their expertise in AI and geopolitical affairs. The organisations included Microsoft, Google, IBM, OpenAI, Amazon, the International Political Science Association, the American Academy of Political and Social Science, the London School of Political Science and Economy, the University of Cambridge, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the World Bank, the United Nations, and the World Economic Forum. These institutions were chosen based on their prominent role in shaping AI development and global policy, ensuring that the panel comprised individuals with the necessary depth of knowledge and strategic insight into both technological and geopolitical domains. The selection process focused on identifying experts who had made significant contributions to their fields, thereby ensuring a high level of expertise and credibility in the Delphi process.
- Step 3: Round 1—Open-Ended QuestionsIn the first round of the Delphi process, experts were asked a series of open-ended questions designed to elicit a broad range of ideas and perspectives on the potential futures influenced by AI and geopolitical shifts. This round was crucial for gathering diverse insights into the possible outcomes and uncertainties associated with these developments. The responses from this round were extensive, with over 1947 sub-factors identified and considered during this stage. These sub-factors encompassed various aspects of AI integration, geopolitical strategies, economic impacts, and social changes, providing a comprehensive foundation for the subsequent refinement process.
- Step 4: Round 2—RefinementThe second round of the Delphi process involved refining the broad range of ideas and sub-factors identified in the first round. The research team synthesised the responses to identify common themes and patterns, which were then developed into more focused questions and potential scenarios. Experts were asked to review these refined scenarios, providing their evaluations and insights on the most probable and impactful developments. This round aimed to achieve a higher level of consensus among the experts by narrowing down the focus to the most critical issues and uncertainties. The refined scenarios and themes were mapped.
- Step 5: Round 3—Final ConsensusThe final round of the Delphi process aimed to solidify the consensus among the experts. In this stage, the scenarios that had emerged as most significant were presented back to the experts for final validation. Experts reviewed these scenarios, focusing on their plausibility and potential impact. This round allowed the experts to adjust or confirm their views based on the collective insights gained throughout the Delphi process. The results from this round highlight the agreed-upon probabilities and impacts of the identified scenarios, providing a robust foundation for the subsequent scenario analysis.
2.2.2. Multiple-Scenario Analysis
2.2.3. Probabilistic Modelling
2.3. Data Collection and Analysis
2.4. Ethical Considerations
2.5. Integration of Findings
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Global Dynamics
3.1.1. Economic Transformations and Employment
3.1.2. Exponential Speed of Change Caused by AI
3.1.3. Increased Security Risks Due to the Use of AI and Quantum Computing
3.1.4. Medical and Technical Fields Evolve Rapidly
3.1.5. AI Can Help Develop Sustainability Solutions
3.1.6. Loss of Trust in Humans
3.2. Impact of Geopolitical Developments
3.2.1. Increased Nationalization
3.2.2. Russia–Ukraine War and Russia’s Foreign Policy
3.2.3. Israeli War and Foreign Policy
3.2.4. Impact of the Chinese Economy and Geo-Policies
3.3. Readiness of Governments and Societies
4. Conclusions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
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Gerlich, M. Brace for Impact: Facing the AI Revolution and Geopolitical Shifts in a Future Societal Scenario for 2025–2040. Societies 2024, 14, 180. https://doi.org/10.3390/soc14090180
Gerlich M. Brace for Impact: Facing the AI Revolution and Geopolitical Shifts in a Future Societal Scenario for 2025–2040. Societies. 2024; 14(9):180. https://doi.org/10.3390/soc14090180
Chicago/Turabian StyleGerlich, Michael. 2024. "Brace for Impact: Facing the AI Revolution and Geopolitical Shifts in a Future Societal Scenario for 2025–2040" Societies 14, no. 9: 180. https://doi.org/10.3390/soc14090180
APA StyleGerlich, M. (2024). Brace for Impact: Facing the AI Revolution and Geopolitical Shifts in a Future Societal Scenario for 2025–2040. Societies, 14(9), 180. https://doi.org/10.3390/soc14090180