Validation of the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT) and SORT v2 for Predicting Postoperative Mortality in Patients with Pancreatic Cancer Undergoing Surgery
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methods
2.1. Data Extraction Strategy
2.2. Primary and Secondary Endpoints
2.3. Statistical Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Baseline Patient Characteristics
3.2. Performance of SORT and SORT v2 Models in the Total Dataset
3.3. Comparison of SORT and SORT v2 with Other Mortality Prediction Models in the Entire Dataset
3.4. Performance of Mortality Prediction Models in Subgroups
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Baseline Characteristics | Number of Patients, n = 212 |
---|---|
Female, n (%) | 78 (36.8) |
Mean age, years (SD) | 67.2 (10.5) |
Age ≥ 70 (%) | 82 (38.7) |
BMI, (SD) | 26.5 (1.9) |
Mean previous Operations, n (SD) | 1.9 (1) |
Pre-operative ERCP, n (%) | 82 (38.7) |
ASA Class, n (%) | |
I | 48 (22.6) |
II | 112 (52.8) |
III | 42 (19.8) |
IV | 10 (4.7) |
Stage, n (%) | |
Re-sectable | 152 (71.7) |
Borderline re-sectable | 60 (28.3) |
Mean CA19-9, U/mL (SD) | 502.9 (1138) |
CA19-9 ≥ 500 U/mL, n (%) | 162 (76.4) |
CA19-9 < 500 U/mL, n (%) | 50 (23.6) |
Neoadjuvant treatment, n (%) | 56 (26.4) |
Operative priority | |
Elective | 194 (91.5) |
Acute | 18 (8.5) |
Cancer site, n (%) | |
Head/Vater | 180 (84.9) |
Body | 14 (6.6) |
Tail | 18 (8.5) |
Pathology, n (%) | |
PDAC | 190 (89.6) |
NET | 14 (6.6) |
Other | 8 (3.8) |
Surgical Operation, n (%) | |
Pancreaticoduodenectomy | 178 (84) |
Total pancreatectomy | 16 (7.5) |
Distal pancreatectomy | 18 (8.5) |
30-day mortality | 7 (3.3) |
Scoring Systems | O | E | O:E | Discrimination | Calibration | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AUC (95% CI) | p | H-L | p | ||||
POSSUM | 7 | 0 | - | 0.72 (0.57–0.88) | 0.045 | 17.47 | 0.03 |
P-POSSUM | 7 | 0 | - | 0.75 (0.64–0.86) | 0.025 | 9.47 | 0.31 |
SORT | 7 | 4 | 1.75 | 0.98 (0.95–1.00) | <0.001 | 2.97 | 0.71 |
SORT v2 | 7 | 4 | 1.75 | 0.98 (0.97–1.00) | <0.001 | 5.46 | 0.49 |
Scoring Systems | O | E | O:E | Discrimination | Calibration | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AUC (95% CI) | p | H-L | p | ||||
Pancreaticoduodenectomy (n = 178) | |||||||
POSSUM | 5 | 0 | - | 0.67 (0.50–0.84) | 0.193 | 9.56 | 0.297 |
P-POSSUM | 5 | 0 | - | 0.75 (0.64–0.86) | 0.055 | 11.18 | 0.192 |
SORT | 5 | 2 | 2.5 | 0.96 (0.92–1.00) | <0.001 | 2.89 | 0.822 |
SORT v2 | 5 | 2 | 2.5 | 0.98 (0.95–1.00) | <0.001 | 6.87 | 0.443 |
Total pancreatectomy (n = 16) | |||||||
POSSUM | perfect seperation | ||||||
P-POSSUM | ps | ||||||
SORT | ps | ||||||
SORT v2 | ps | ||||||
Distal pancreatectomy (n = 18) | |||||||
POSSUM | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.88 (0.71–1.00) | 0.092 | 6.82 | 0.556 |
P-POSSUM | 2 | 0 | - | 0.75 (0.54–0.96) | 0.261 | 17.09 | 0.017 |
SORT | ps | ||||||
SORT v2 | ps | ||||||
CA19-9 ≥ 500 mU/L (n = 162) | |||||||
POSSUM | 5 | 0 | - | 0.69 (0.51–0.86) | 0.157 | 9.30 | 0.318 |
P-POSSUM | 5 | 0 | - | 0.76 (0.65–0.87) | 0.048 | 9.88 | 0.274 |
SORT | 5 | 2 | 2.5 | 0.96 (0.91–1.00) | <0.001 | 2.82 | 0.831 |
SORT v2 | 5 | 2 | 2.5 | 0.97 (0.95–1.00) | <0.001 | 6.76 | 0.562 |
CA19-9 < 500 mU/L (n = 50) | |||||||
POSSUM | 2 | 0 | - | 0.79 (0.68–0.91) | 0.166 | 18.94 | 0.015 |
P-POSSUM | 2 | 0 | - | 0.71 (0.58–0.84) | 0.322 | 15.29 | 0.054 |
SORT | ps | ||||||
SORT v2 | ps | ||||||
Neoadjuvant treatment (n = 56) | |||||||
POSSUM | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 0.98 (0.95–1.00) | 0.005 | 0.41 | >0.999 |
P-POSSUM | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0.95 (0.88–1.00) | 0.009 | 21.89 | 0.003 |
SORT | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 0.91 (0.81–1.00) | 0.018 | 0.83 | 0.997 |
SORT v2 | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 0.98 (0.95–1.00) | 0.005 | 3.63 | 0.822 |
No neoadjuvant treatment (n = 156) | |||||||
POSSUM | 4 | 0 | - | 0.63 (0.42–0.85) | 0.370 | 16.73 | 0.033 |
P-POSSUM | 4 | 0 | - | 0.74 (0.62–0.86) | 0.104 | 12.14 | 0.145 |
SORT | ps | ||||||
SORT v2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0.99 (0.9671.00) | <0.001 | 1.29 | 0.972 |
≥70 (n = 82) | |||||||
POSSUM | 2 | 0 | - | 0.53 (0.26–0.79) | 0.904 | 8.65 | 0.373 |
P-POSSUM | 4 | 0 | - | 0.65 (0.45–0.84) | 0.322 | 8.52 | 0.384 |
SORT | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0.94 (0.86–1.00) | 0.003 | 4.50 | 0.480 |
SORT v2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0.97 (0.94–1.00) | 0.001 | 0.71 | 0.994 |
<70 (n = 130) | |||||||
POSSUM | 3 | 0 | - | 0.92 (0.87–0.97) | 0.014 | 22.27 | 0.004 |
P-POSSUM | 3 | 0 | - | 0.82 (0.75–0.89) | 0.059 | 12.24 | 0.141 |
SORT | ps | ||||||
SORT v2 | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 0.98 (0.96–1.00) | 0.004 | 1.18 | 0.947 |
ERCP (n = 82) | |||||||
POSSUM | 5 | 4 | 1.25 | 0.83 (0.66–1.00) | 0.001 | 16.71 | 0.033 |
P-POSSUM | 5 | 2 | 2.5 | 0.89 (0.89–1.00) | 0.001 | 6.88 | 0.550 |
SORT | 5 | 2 | 2.5 | 0.93 (0.85–1.00) | 0.001 | 2.23 | 0.973 |
SORT v2 | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 0.97 (0.94–1.00) | <0.001 | 36.27 | <0.001 |
No ERCP (n = 130) | |||||||
POSSUM | 2 | 0 | - | 0.81 (0.75–0.88) | 0.130 | 11.38 | 0.181 |
P-POSSUM | 2 | 0 | - | 0.79 (0.63–0.95) | 0.156 | 7.76 | 0.458 |
SORT | ps | ||||||
SORT v2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.98 (0.96–1.00) | 0.019 | 0.52 | 0.991 |
High risk for POPF | |||||||
POSSUM | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0.94 (0.86–1.00) | 0.005 | 6.22 | 0.622 |
P-POSSUM | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0.91 (0.80–1.00) | 0.009 | 5.64 | 0.688 |
SORT | 4 | 3 | 1.33 | 0.92 (0.81–1.00) | 0.008 | 0.88 | 0.997 |
SORT v2 | 4 | 3 | 1.33 | 0.98 (0.93–1.00) | 0.002 | 17.81 | 0.013 |
Low risk for POPF | |||||||
POSSUM | 3 | 0 | - | 0.59 (0.34–0.84) | 0.59 | 10.60 | 0.225 |
P-POSSUM | 3 | 0 | - | 0.74 (0.67–0.81) | 0.15 | 27.26 | 0.001 |
SORT | ps | ||||||
SORT v2 | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 0.98 (0.97–1.00) | 0.004 | 1.11 | 0.981 |
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Karamolegkou, A.P.; Fergadi, M.P.; Magouliotis, D.E.; Samara, A.A.; Tatsios, E.; Xanthopoulos, A.; Pourzitaki, C.; Walker, D.; Zacharoulis, D. Validation of the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT) and SORT v2 for Predicting Postoperative Mortality in Patients with Pancreatic Cancer Undergoing Surgery. J. Clin. Med. 2023, 12, 2327. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm12062327
Karamolegkou AP, Fergadi MP, Magouliotis DE, Samara AA, Tatsios E, Xanthopoulos A, Pourzitaki C, Walker D, Zacharoulis D. Validation of the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT) and SORT v2 for Predicting Postoperative Mortality in Patients with Pancreatic Cancer Undergoing Surgery. Journal of Clinical Medicine. 2023; 12(6):2327. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm12062327
Chicago/Turabian StyleKaramolegkou, Anna P., Maria P. Fergadi, Dimitrios E. Magouliotis, Athina A. Samara, Evangelos Tatsios, Andrew Xanthopoulos, Chryssa Pourzitaki, David Walker, and Dimitris Zacharoulis. 2023. "Validation of the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT) and SORT v2 for Predicting Postoperative Mortality in Patients with Pancreatic Cancer Undergoing Surgery" Journal of Clinical Medicine 12, no. 6: 2327. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm12062327
APA StyleKaramolegkou, A. P., Fergadi, M. P., Magouliotis, D. E., Samara, A. A., Tatsios, E., Xanthopoulos, A., Pourzitaki, C., Walker, D., & Zacharoulis, D. (2023). Validation of the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT) and SORT v2 for Predicting Postoperative Mortality in Patients with Pancreatic Cancer Undergoing Surgery. Journal of Clinical Medicine, 12(6), 2327. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm12062327