1. Introduction
The government of Canada has announced the
$53 billion “New Building Plan” for rejuvenation of Canadian public infrastructure, the largest infrastructure investment in the nation’s history [
1]. The rehabilitation and expansion of municipal infrastructure, including water and wastewater systems, will not happen without consequences to social, environmental and economic systems. Thus, water and wastewater utilities should consider the long-term sustainability impacts of their decisions when developing their policies and strategic asset management plans.
The development of socially acceptable, environmentally friendly, and financially viable asset management plans compels understanding of the behavior of social, environmental, and economic systems. The complexity of planning decisions is compounded when different economic, social, and environmental dimensions of the challenge are inherently interrelated [
2]. Moreover, it is realized that a strategic asset management plan should include assessment of impacts to/from other affected systems upstream and downstream [
3]. Based on recent Asset Management Planning for Municipal Infrastructure regulation [
4], municipalities are obligated to coordinate the asset management plans of infrastructures that are connected or interrelated with those of upper-tier municipalities, neighboring municipalities, or jointly owned municipal bodies when preparing strategic asset management policies for their core assets.
This study demonstrates the application and utility of system dynamics (SD) model developed by Mohammadifardi et al. [
2] to evaluate the future sustainability performance of policies and asset management strategies for wastewater infrastructure systems. Implementation of the developed SD model for an integrated wastewater collection (WWC) and wastewater treatment (WWT) infrastructure system of a medium-size municipality in Southern Ontario is presented for case-study demonstration. This case study represents a typical city in Canada that own and operate both WWC and WWT infrastructure assets.
The following sections provides the background information and assumptions for the SD model application and presents results for a demonstration case study. The initial data for the physical conditions of the wastewater infrastructure system and the alternative asset management scenarios are presented and discussed in
Section 4 and
Section 5 respectively. The results are presented and discussed in
Section 6, and conclusions are drawn in
Section 7.
It is important to note that the presented SD model results should be treated as a forecast model that estimates future systems trends and the long-term sustainability performance over a 100-years forecasting period. This model assumes steady state behavior and no shocks occur to the system over this 100 year forecasting period. Thus, the model is to be used as trend forecasting model so the impact of management policies can be seen over the system life-cycle and not an actual prediction of the future model. In the same way, it is inherently and inevitably assumed that the current socio-economic, political, environmental, and technological conditions will be at steady state so that the influence of strategic decisions on life cycle performance of wastewater infrastructure systems can be investigated.
6. Presentation of Results
The future behavior of the wastewater collection system and social, finance, and environmental performances of asset management scenarios are projected in this section. Figures 1–11 provide a means of understanding the future trends and forecasting the sustainability outlook of the strategic decisions in the asset management planning process.
Figure 1a,b respectively represent the fraction of the ICG5 and ICG4 pipes respectively over the 100-year simulation period in each scenario.
Figure 1a shows that the adjusted maximum rehabilitation rates of 1.41% and 1.85% (network length/year) suffice to maintain the ICG5 pipes fractions below 10% and 2.8% (network length/year) respectively in the base-line and accelerated-rehabilitation scenarios.
The fraction of ICG5 pipes in the base-line scenario (1.41% rehabilitation rate) increases to the maximum 10% threshold within 30 years; then, it reduces to lower than the initial 2.8% level after about 50 years. Therefore, users can experience a better than initial-level service only after 50 years subscription to the WWC and WWT services with every-year increased fees. After year 60, the WWC physical sector reaches a steady state where all ICG5 and ICG4 pipes are replaced annually until the end of the simulation period of 100 years.
The ICG5 pipes fraction in the accelerated-rehabilitation scenario (1.85% rehabilitation rate) will reduce to 2% during the first 5 years as the deterioration rate of the ICG4 pipes turning into the ICG5 pipes is lower than the replacement rate of the ICG5 pipes with new pipes i.e., ICG1 pipes. After 5 years, this trend is reversed and the ICG5 pipes fraction increase to reach the initial 2.8% level in year 15. In year 25, the fraction of ICG5 pipes are reduced to less than 1.85% of the network length. Therefore, the model starts to renovate ICG4 pipes to fill-up the annual rehabilitation capacity. The fraction of ICG4 and ICG5 pipes reach their lowest level at year 40. After 40 years, the infrastructure backlog is eliminated and steady state is achieved i.e., all ICG5 and ICG4 pipes are replaced annually until the end of the simulation period of 100 years.
Figure 2a,b presents the actual rehabilitation rates and related capital expenses respectively for each scenario.
As shown in
Figure 2a, the highest rehabilitation rate of 1.85% in the second scenario is achieved after about 15 years and concludes in about year 40, at the onset of the steady-state. In the first scenario, the base-line rehabilitation rate of 1.41% starts from the initial year and continues for about 60 years until it joins the same steady-state of the second scenario.
It should be noted that the actual rehabilitation rate depends on the availability of pipes in ICG5 or ICG4 categories and the existence of a positive funds balance. In
Figure 2a, the actual rehabilitation rate in the second scenario is lower than the maximum rehabilitation rate of 1.85% during the first 15 years due to a lack of funds, then it drops to nearly 0.5% after 40 years when the backlog inventory of ICG5 and ICG4 pipes are eliminated.
Figure 2b shows the WWC pipes rehabilitation and replacement costs. As expected, the accelerated rehabilitation rate in the second scenario incurs higher capital expenses until about year 35. However, the annual capital expenses for the base-line scenario surpass the annual capital expenses of the second scenario for the next 25 years. The hatched ‘A’ area represents the additional capital investments used to accelerate the WWC pipes rehabilitation and replacement in the second scenario. It is evident that this additional capital investment is smaller than the required capital expenses in the base-line scenario which is the hatched ‘B’ area.
The annual total wastewater-inflow volume and the built treatment plants capacities in each scenario are presented in
Figure 3a,b respectively. The annual wastewater volume in the base-line scenario increases for about 30 years until it reaches its maximum level of 104 million m
3/day. In the second scenario, the annual wastewater volume will not exceed the initial level until year 80. In
Figure 3a, the additional wastewater volume that requires building WWT plant capacity in the first scenario is hatched (area denoted as ‘A’).
The built WWT capacity presented in
Figure 3b corresponds with the WWT plant’s annual wastewater-inflow volume. In the first scenario, the increased wastewater-inflow volume imposes the need to build additional treatment capacities from the initial years until year 30 (when the wastewater volume is at its maximum level), whereas in the second scenario, this need does not arise until about year 80.
The WWT plant’s capacity is required to treat the sewage generated by residential and non-residential users, as well as, the extraneous inflow and infiltration (I&I) to the WWC pipe network system.
Figure 4 demonstrate the proportion of each element in the WWT plant’s wastewater-inflow volume.
Comparing the disaggregated wastewater volumes in
Figure 4 confirm that the main difference between the WWT plant’s wastewater-inflow volume originates from the differences in I&I volume. The total extraneous I&I flow volume in the base-line scenario, presented in
Figure 4a, is about 1.5 billion m
3 higher than the I&I flow in the second scenario. The underlying cause of this difference is the higher fraction of deteriorated ICG5 and ICG4 pipes in the first scenario than the second scenario as presented in
Figure 1.
The volumes of wastewater generated by residential and non-residential users are relatively identical in both scenarios, and water conservation has a negligible impact on total wastewater flow volumes. In the first scenario, only the extraneous I&I flow volume will impose building extra wastewater treatment capacity in the first 35 years (
Figure 3a); whereas, in the second scenario, the population growth will result in increased sewage volume by residential that will result in building increased WWT plant capacity after 80 years.
Figure 5 shows the total user fee in
Figure 5a and the water demands in
Figure 5b for residential users. The user fees are presented based on the present dollar value. The user fee in the first scenario increases to reach its peak value of 3.5
$/m
3 in year 50, whereas in the second scenario, the user fee reaches its highest value, 3.1
$/m
3, in about year 22.
Since the user fees increase in both scenarios, residential users reduce their water demand to minimum level of 150 LPCD, as presented in
Figure 5b. The minimum water demand level will be reached about 5 years earlier in the second scenario than in the first. The lower water demand level is maintained as residents adopt their water use behavior for the rest of the asset-management life cycle.
Figure 6 presents the disaggregate WWT and WWC fees for residential users in each scenario. Comparing the WWC and WWT fees highlights the significance of WWC fees in user fee variations. In the first scenario,
Figure 6a, the contribution of WWT fees is significant for the first 20 years and then starts to diminish over time. In the second scenario,
Figure 6b, the WWT fee contribution decreases from the beginning, up to the end of the simulation when the user fees reach about their maximum, 5
$/m
2, in both scenarios.
Figure 7 shows the changes in development charges based on the present dollar value. In the first scenario, the development charges will start to increase from year 10 and reach their highest value of approximately
$5000 for new apartments,
$10,000 for new houses, and
$60/m
2 for new non-residential buildings in year 22. After the year 22, the utility can generate enough revenues to pay for both operational and capital expenses, and the development charges continuously depreciate to reach to the lowest values of
$439 for new houses,
$274 for new apartments, and
$2.81/m
2 for non-residential developments at the end of the simulation period. In contrast, the development charges in the second scenario continuously depreciate from the beginning and reach less than
$1000 for new residential units and
$5/m
2 for non-residential developments in year 50.
The annual energy-use and GHG emission results are presented in
Figure 8a,b, respectively. The annual energy-use in the first scenario is slightly lower than that in the second scenario until about year 10, and it reaches 500 gigajoules/yr in about year 35. The energy-use in the second scenario reaches about 450 gigajoules/yr in about year 15 and starts to decline to as low as 350 gigajoules/yr in the second scenario in about year 40. A similar comparison is attainable for the annual GHG emission results. The annual total GHG emission in the first scenario rises to above 8.5 million tones CO
2 eq. in about year 35, whereas it drops to below 5.5 million tones CO
2 eq. in the second scenario in about year 40. Hatched area ‘A’ and ‘B’ represent the additional total energy-use and GHG emissions result from implementing the 1.41 baseline rehabilitation rate scenario.
The contributions of different processes associated with the total GHG emissions in the first and second scenarios are presented in
Figure 9a,b, respectively. The main variations in GHG emissions in both scenarios result from the variation of GHG emissions from WWT plant processes, and correlate to the variations in I&I volume presented in
Figure 4.
Aggregated GHG emission results, presented in
Figure 10, illustrate that the largest GHG emissions are attributed to the water distribution and WWT plant processes; whereas, the GHG emissions from capital work and WTP processes have negligible contribution to the total GHG emissions.
Figure 11 is presented to compare the total annual operational and capital expenses of WWC pipe network and treatment plant systems, based on the present dollar value, when base-line and accelerated rehabilitation strategies are implemented. The capital expenses of WWC systems are the main variable in the asset management costs in both scenarios. For the first 40 and 57 years of the asset life cycle, respectively in the first and second scenarios, capital expenses are the highest cost to the WWC and WWT systems and represent the infrastructure backlog needed to bring the assets to a state of good repair. Later, the operational expenses of WWC systems become more significant than the capital expenses toward the end of the asset’s service life.
As presented in
Figure 12, the differences between the life cycle costs of the two scenarios are mainly due to the differences in WWC and WWT capital expenses, which are denoted as WWC_CapEx and WWT_CapEx in
Figure 12, respectively.