How Perspectives of a System Change Based on Exposure to Positive or Negative Evidence
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- We examine two representations of a system (before/after exposure to a case) using causal maps, which allows us to precisely track the structural evolution of a system instead of relying on test scores.
- We repeat our experiments three times, at two different institutions, thus gathering diverse student profiles to support the generalizability of the findings.
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Data Collection
2.2. Data Cleaning/Pre-Processing
2.3. Data Analysis
- Number of nodes and number of edges, which represent the number of concepts and causal relationships, respectively. These simple and common measures [42] serves to evaluate whether a map covers more of the problem space.
- Average and maximum number of edges per node, also known as the ‘degree’, which measure the connectivity. Higher numbers are more important, as they indicate that students often see them as part of the problem space, exhaustively considering the causal impact of their factors.
- Diameter, which measures the furthest away that two concepts can be (i.e., the length of the longest shortest path). A very large diameter is a risk of going on a tangent (as students may go beyond the boundaries of the problem space), whereas a very small diameter may be indicative of an early map, in which most concepts are tightly packed around a focal point. A medium diameter is thus most desirable.
- Total number and average lengths of cycles. Cycles or ‘feedback loops’ are essential structures in complex problems [47]. In contrast with the simple notion of a ‘root cause’ that would need to be solved for the solution to straightforwardly permeate to a whole system, a cycle recognizes that an intervention will eventually affect us back [48], possibly in unintended ways. As cycles are often present in systems, but are harder to capture in maps due to cognitive limitations [49], seeing cycles in maps is associated with demonstrating a better understanding of the problem. We characterize cycles both in numbers (the more, the better) and in their average length (the longer, the better).
- Total number, longest length, and average length of chains. Chains or ‘paths’ indicate chains of reasoning. They reveal how students combine concepts into a logical sequence, thus giving an insight into how students associate terms and causal reasoning [27,50]. We characterized chains in their amount, and maximum and average length. Lower numbers are associated with more refined maps.
- Percentage of positive causations. Because each causal edge was categorized as either positive (i.e., an increase in A causes an increase in B) or negative (i.e., an increase in A causes a decrease in B), we measured the percentage of positive edges. The positive and negative weights are known as ‘signs’ in the framework of signed graphs, which has been the subject of recent studies in control and systems theory [51,52]. Some of the notions above (e.g., cycles) can be extended within the context of signed graphs, such as characterizing a ‘balanced network’ as having no cycle of which the product of signs is negative [53,54]. However, these refinements are more applicable to the study of polarizing phenomena [55] in social networks, in which nodes refer to individuals, and edges characterize their interactions (e.g., cooperative or antagonistic), than in the mapping of the problem spaces studied here.
3. Results
4. Discussion
4.1. Rationale for the Study and Application Context
4.2. Main Takeaways from the Analysis
4.3. Limitations
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Positive Relation | Negative Relation |
---|---|
Very Strong (‘VS’) = 1 | Very Strong (‘VS’) = −1 |
Strong (‘S’) = 0.8 | Strong (‘S’) = −0.8 |
Medium (‘M’) = 0.6 | Medium (‘M’) = −0.6 |
Low (‘L’) = 0.4 | Low (‘L’) = −0.4 |
Very Low (‘VL’) = 0.2 | Very Low (‘VL’) = −0.2 |
Measure | Metric | Implementation |
---|---|---|
Complexity | Average length and number of cycles | Found by using NetworkX’s simple_cycles function and sorting the nodes in the cycle before passing it into a set to remove duplicates. |
Average length, longest, and number of chains | Found by getting all shortest paths between nodes using NetworkX’s shortest_simple_paths function and counting those whose paths contain only nodes of degree two or higher. | |
Coverage of Problem Space | Number of nodes and edges | Counted the number of nodes and edges in the graph. |
Diameter | Found the longest of the shortest paths found using NetworkX’s shortest_simple_paths function. | |
Type of causations | Percentage of positive causations | Found by reading the last column in the .csv files and checking if the value is above zero, if so find add to count and divide the final count by the total number of rows in the file. |
Difference | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cohort 1 | Cohort 2 | Cohort 3 | ||||||||
Both Cases (n = 9) | Success(n = 6) | Failure(n = 3) | Both Cases(n = 12) | Success(n = 6) | Failure(n = 6) | BothCases(n = 7) | Success(n = 4) | Failure(n = 3) | ||
Cycles | Total | + | + | = | + | = | + | ++ | ++ | - |
AverageLength | + | + | = | = | - | = | = | + | = | |
Elements | Number of Nodes | + | = | ++ | = | = | = | ++ | ++ | ++ |
Number of Edges | ++ | + | ++ | = | = | = | ++ | ++ | + | |
Connectivity | Diameter | = | = | + | = | = | = | = | + | = |
Average Degree | = | = | = | = | = | = | = | = | - | |
Chains | Total | -- | -- | -- | ++ | + | ++ | ++ | N/A * | ++ |
Longest | -- | -- | -- | ++ | ++ | ++ | ++ | ++ | ||
Average Length | -- | -- | -- | ++ | ++ | + | ++ | ++ |
Difference | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cohort 1 | Cohort 2 | Cohort 3 | |||||||||||
Baseline Success Group(n = 6) | After Exposure to Success Case(n = 6) | Baseline Failure Group(n = 3) | After Exposure to Failure Case(n = 3) | Baseline Success Group(n = 6) | After Exposure to Success Case(n = 6) | Baseline Failure(n = 6) | After Exposure to Failure Case(n = 6) | BaselineSuccess Group(n = 4) | After Exposure to Success Case(n = 4) | BaselineFailure Group(n = 3) | After Exposure to Failure Case(n = 3) | ||
Cycles | Total | 22.00 | 36.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 92.00 | 114.00 | 75.00 | 103.00 | 68.00 | 747.00 | 48.00 | 27.00 |
AverageLength | 10.65 | 10.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 21.07 | 16.01 | 21.63 | 22.13 | 16.79 | 21.29 | 12.65 | 11.16 | |
Elements | Number of Nodes | 71.00 | 86.00 | 33.00 | 60.00 | 96.00 | 119.00 | 89.00 | 109.00 | 53.00 | 89.00 | 49.00 | 90.00 |
Number of Edges | 112.00 | 153.00 | 48.00 | 99.00 | 166.00 | 184.00 | 177.00 | 206.00 | 109.00 | 189.00 | 80.00 | 108.00 | |
Connect-ivity | Diameter | 26.00 | 28.00 | 11.00 | 15.00 | 35.00 | 35.00 | 32.00 | 37.00 | 19.00 | 24.00 | 16.00 | 15.00 |
Average Degree | 19.05 | 21.41 | 8.70 | 9.73 | 21.20 | 19.37 | 24.16 | 23.51 | 16.0 | 16.21 | 9.57 | 6.70 | |
Chains | Total | 9.00 | 1.00 | 4.00 | 1.00 | 7.00 | 10.0 | 4.00 | 10.00 | 0.00 | 6.00 | 4.00 | 38.00 |
Longest | 7.00 | 2.00 | 5.00 | 2.00 | 4.00 | 8.00 | 5.00 | 8.00 | 0.00 | 5.00 | 4.00 | 11.00 | |
Average Length | 6.20 | 2.00 | 4.34 | 2.00 | 4.00 | 8.00 | 4.34 | 6.5.0 | 0.00 | 4.2.0 | 4.0 | 6.88 |
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Giabbanelli, P.J.; Tawfik, A.A. How Perspectives of a System Change Based on Exposure to Positive or Negative Evidence. Systems 2021, 9, 23. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems9020023
Giabbanelli PJ, Tawfik AA. How Perspectives of a System Change Based on Exposure to Positive or Negative Evidence. Systems. 2021; 9(2):23. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems9020023
Chicago/Turabian StyleGiabbanelli, Philippe J., and Andrew A. Tawfik. 2021. "How Perspectives of a System Change Based on Exposure to Positive or Negative Evidence" Systems 9, no. 2: 23. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems9020023
APA StyleGiabbanelli, P. J., & Tawfik, A. A. (2021). How Perspectives of a System Change Based on Exposure to Positive or Negative Evidence. Systems, 9(2), 23. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems9020023