Changing Trends in Temperatures and Rainfalls in the Western Pacific: Guam
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Study Region, Data, and Methodology
2.1. Study Area and Data
2.2. Climate Change Detection Indices
2.3. Trend Analysis
- Case 1: p-value ≤ 0.05 ⇒ significant strong trend
- Case 2: 0.05 < p-value ≤ 0.1 ⇒ significant trend
- Case 3: p-value > 0.1 ⇒ insignificant trend
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Trends in Temperatures
3.2. Trends in Rainfalls
3.2.1. Basic Index
3.2.2. Extreme Rainfall Index
4. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Name | Latitude | Longitude | Data Period | Data Source | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Precipitation | Andersen AFB | 13.576 | 144.928 | 1953–2002 | NOAA NCDC |
Dededo | 13.531 | 144.861 | 1975–2012 | ||
Guam International AP | 13.483 | 144.800 | 1958–2021 | ||
Inarajan Station | 13.285 | 144.755 | 1978–2021 | ||
Mangilao | 13.450 | 144.801 | 1970–2021 | ||
Pirates Cove | 13.352 | 144.767 | 2004–2019 | ||
Yigo | 13.548 | 144.893 | 1978–2012 | ||
Almagosa | 13.353 | 144.683 | 1993–2021 | USGS | |
Fena | 13.360 | 144.709 | 1994–2021 | ||
Geomag | 13.589 | 144.868 | 2012–2021 | ||
Mt Chachao | 13.439 | 144.712 | 1989–2021 | ||
Mt Santa Rosa | 13.536 | 144.915 | 2002–2021 | ||
Umatac | 13.292 | 144.662 | 1989–2021 | ||
Windward Hills | 13.377 | 144.738 | 1974–2021 | ||
Temperature | Andersen AFB | 13.576 | 144.928 | 1953–2002 | NOAA NCDC |
Guam International AP | 13.483 | 144.800 | 1958–2021 |
Index Code | Indicator Name | Definition | Unit |
---|---|---|---|
FD | number of frost days | no. of days when TN (daily minimum temperature) < 0 °C | days |
SU | number of summer days | no. of days when TX (daily maximum temperature) > 25 °C | days |
ID | number of icing days | no. of days when TX (daily maximum temperature) < 0 °C | days |
TR | number of tropical nights | no. of days when TN (daily minimum temperature) > 20 °C | days |
GSL | growing season length | Annual (1 January to 31 December in Northern Hemisphere (NH), 1 July to 30 June in Southern Hemisphere (SH)) count between first span of at least 6 days with daily mean temperature (TG) > 5 °C and first span after 1 July (1 January in SH) of 6 days with TG < 5 °C | days |
TXx | max TX | monthly maximum value of daily TX | °C |
TNx | max TN | monthly maximum value of daily TN | °C |
TXn | min TX | monthly minimum value of daily TX | °C |
TNn | min TN | monthly minimum value of daily TN | °C |
TN10p | 10th percentile of TN | value of 10th percentile of daily TN | °C |
TX10p | 10th percentile of TX | value of 10th percentile of daily TX | °C |
TN90p | 90th percentile of TN | value of 90th percentile of daily TN | °C |
TX90p | 90th percentile of TX | value of 90th percentile of daily TX | °C |
WSDI | warm spell duration index | no. of days with at least 6 consecutive days when TX > 90th percentile | days |
CSDI | cold spell duration index | no. of days with at least 6 consecutive days when TN < 10th percentile | days |
DTR | daily temperature range | monthly mean difference between TX and TN | °C |
PRCPTOT | total PRCP in wet days | sum of daily PRCP amount | mm |
Prcp1 | percentage of wet days | Percentage of wet days | % |
SDII | simple PRCP intensity index | total PRCP divided by the no. of wet days (when total PRCP ≥ 1.0 mm) | mm/day |
R10mm | no. of heavy-rain days exceeding 10 mm/day | count of days when PRCP ≥ 10 mm | days |
R20mm | no. of heavy-rain days exceeding 20 mm/day | count of days when PRCP ≥ 20 mm | days |
Rx1day | maximum 1-day PRCP | max 1-day PRCP total | mm |
Rx5day | maximum 5-day PRCP | max 5-day PRCP total | mm |
R95pTOT | total PRCP from heavy-rain days (95th percentile) | sum of daily PRCP > 95th percentile | mm |
R99pTOT | total PRCP from very-heavy-rain days (99th percentile) | sum of daily PRCP > 99th percentile | mm |
CDD | consecutive dry days | maximum number of consecutive days with RRCP < 1 mm | days |
CWD | consecutive wet days | maximum number of consecutive days with RRCP ≥ 1 mm | days |
Time Frame | Statistics | TXx | TXn | TX90p | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AAFB | GIAP | AAFB | GIAP | AAFB | GIAP | ||
Annual | Tau | 0.386 | 0.291 | 0.212 | 0.207 | 0.381 | 0.095 |
Sen | 0.037 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.024 | 0.000 | |
Dry | Tau | 0.472 | 0.544 | 0.380 | 0.239 | 0.380 | 0.239 |
Sen | 0.036 | 0.031 | 0.031 | 0.031 | 0.031 | 0.031 | |
Wet | Tau | 0.410 | 0.398 | 0.394 | 0.215 | 0.394 | 0.215 |
Sen | 0.025 | 0.023 | 0.022 | 0.013 | 0.022 | 0.013 | |
JFM | Tau | 0.407 | 0.557 | 0.354 | 0.155 | 0.354 | 0.155 |
Sen | 0.031 | 0.029 | 0.026 | 0.023 | 0.026 | 0.023 | |
AMJ | Tau | 0.419 | 0.353 | 0.317 | 0.269 | 0.317 | 0.269 |
Sen | 0.041 | 0.025 | 0.033 | 0.040 | 0.033 | 0.040 | |
JAS | Tau | 0.451 | 0.401 | 0.392 | 0.109 | 0.392 | 0.109 |
Sen | 0.036 | 0.031 | 0.030 | 0.012 | 0.030 | 0.012 | |
OND | Tau | 0.272 | 0.221 | 0.302 | 0.224 | 0.302 | 0.224 |
Sen | 0.019 | 0.013 | 0.018 | 0.015 | 0.018 | 0.015 |
Time Frame | Statistics | TNx | TNn | TN10p | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AAFB | GIAP | AAFB | GIAP | AAFB | GIAP | ||
Annual | Tau | 0.448 | 0.607 | 0.283 | 0.253 | 0.283 | 0.253 |
Sen | 0.017 | 0.037 | 0.017 | 0.026 | 0.017 | 0.026 | |
Dry | Tau | 0.456 | 0.445 | 0.399 | 0.326 | 0.399 | 0.326 |
Sen | 0.022 | 0.034 | 0.019 | 0.031 | 0.019 | 0.031 | |
Wet | Tau | 0.436 | 0.393 | 0.224 | 0.480 | 0.224 | 0.480 |
Sen | 0.019 | 0.023 | 0.012 | 0.035 | 0.012 | 0.035 | |
JFM | Tau | 0.338 | 0.206 | 0.271 | 0.323 | 0.235 | 0.323 |
Sen | 0.019 | 0.015 | 0.014 | 0.034 | 0.012 | 0.034 | |
AMJ | Tau | 0.481 | 0.507 | 0.314 | 0.257 | 0.314 | 0.257 |
Sen | 0.025 | 0.049 | 0.019 | 0.034 | 0.019 | 0.034 | |
JAS | Tau | 0.433 | 0.375 | 0.272 | 0.569 | 0.272 | 0.569 |
Sen | 0.019 | 0.031 | 0.015 | 0.046 | 0.015 | 0.046 | |
OND | Tau | 0.325 | 0.180 | 0.170 | 0.223 | 0.170 | 0.223 |
Sen | 0.016 | 0.013 | 0.009 | 0.017 | 0.009 | 0.017 |
Site | PRCPTOT (mm) | Prcp1 (%) | SDII (mm) | R10mm (days) | R20mm (days) | Site | PRCPTOT (mm) | Prcp1 (%) | SDII (mm) | R10mm (days) | R20mm (days) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AAFB | Annual | 0.023 | 0.000 | 0.029 | 0.024 | 0.128 | Alamosa | 0.089 | 0.578 | 0.044 | 0.858 | 0.528 |
Dry | 0.014 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.089 | 0.051 | 0.057 | 0.584 | 0.264 | 0.250 | 0.138 | ||
Wet | 0.036 | 0.000 | 0.243 | −0.05 | 0.056 | 0.064 | 0.437 | −0.071 | 0.667 | 0.444 | ||
JFM | 0.01 | 0.000 | 0.027 | 0 | 0 | 0.073 | 0.584 | 0.032 | 0.200 | 0.087 | ||
AMJ | 0.021 | 0.100 | 0.031 | 0.045 | 0 | 0.032 | 0.573 | −0.005 | 0.103 | 0.048 | ||
JAS | 0.033 | 0.100 | 0.021 | 0.059 | 0.083 | 0.090 | 0.501 | 0.061 | 0.312 | 0.200 | ||
OND | 0.016 | −0.100 | 0.057 | 0 | 0 | 0.060 | 0.481 | −0.002 | 0.300 | 0.245 | ||
Dededo | Annual | −0.048 | 0.235 | −0.120 | −0.750 | −0.462 | Fena | 0.071 | 0.754 | −0.042 | 0.800 | 0.310 |
Dry | −0.045 | 0.192 | −0.434 | −0.229 | −0.087 | 0.038 | 0.643 | −0.386 | 0.206 | 0.048 | ||
Wet | −0.056 | −0.018 | −1.207 | −0.500 | −0.368 | 0.106 | 0.834 | −0.821 | 0.500 | 0.279 | ||
JFM | −0.012 | 0.582 | −0.098 | −0.043 | 0.000 | 0.054 | 0.802 | −0.112 | 0.138 | 0.000 | ||
AMJ | −0.067 | −0.237 | −0.055 | −0.200 | −0.103 | 0.024 | 0.573 | −0.039 | 0.063 | 0.000 | ||
JAS | 0.007 | 0.289 | −0.128 | 0.000 | −0.102 | 0.067 | 0.735 | −0.032 | 0.156 | 0.000 | ||
OND | −0.105 | −0.347 | −0.223 | −0.469 | −0.274 | 0.090 | 0.956 | −0.105 | 0.400 | 0.276 | ||
Guam AP | Annual | 0.002 | −0.100 | 0.018 | −0.075 | 0.027 | Geomag | −0.284 | −0.216 | −0.282 | 1.429 | 0.143 |
Dry | −0.013 | −0.100 | −0.03 | −0.078 | 0 | −0.239 | −0.753 | −0.661 | 0.333 | 0.000 | ||
Wet | 0.017 | −0.100 | 0.154 | 0 | 0.063 | 0.013 | 0.482 | 0.154 | 1.400 | 0.500 | ||
JFM | −0.01 | −0.100 | −0.012 | −0.017 | 0 | −0.369 | −0.738 | −0.198 | 0.333 | −0.250 | ||
AMJ | −0.008 | −0.100 | 0.003 | −0.029 | 0 | −0.101 | −0.370 | −0.119 | 0.667 | 0.125 | ||
JAS | 0.03 | 0.000 | 0.042 | 0 | 0.057 | −0.274 | 0.437 | −0.376 | 0.000 | 0.000 | ||
OND | −0.003 | −0.100 | 0.006 | 0 | 0 | 0.423 | 0.430 | 0.379 | 1.600 | 0.667 | ||
Inaraja | Annual | 0.042 | 0.401 | −0.009 | −0.077 | 0.037 | Mt. Chachao | 0.029 | 0.432 | −0.059 | 0.821 | 0.400 |
Dry | 0.008 | 0.355 | −0.110 | −0.067 | −0.067 | 0.004 | 0.177 | −0.248 | 0.136 | 0.103 | ||
Wet | 0.071 | 0.424 | 0.166 | −0.109 | 0.025 | 0.017 | 0.535 | −0.923 | 0.667 | 0.333 | ||
JFM | 0.016 | 0.381 | −0.047 | 0.000 | −0.051 | −0.001 | 0.246 | −0.019 | 0.077 | 0.000 | ||
AMJ | −0.001 | 0.254 | −0.023 | −0.103 | −0.063 | 0.026 | 0.243 | −0.046 | 0.106 | 0.056 | ||
JAS | 0.096 | 0.401 | 0.054 | −0.042 | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.562 | −0.143 | 0.318 | 0.184 | ||
OND | 0.034 | 0.390 | −0.019 | −0.028 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.427 | −0.087 | 0.250 | 0.140 | ||
Mangilao | Annual | 0.067 | 0.156 | 0.067 | −0.343 | −0.171 | Mt. Santa Rosa | 0.081 | 0.319 | 0.039 | 1.866 | 1.165 |
Dry | 0.018 | 0.112 | 0.249 | −0.074 | −0.040 | −0.020 | 0.110 | −0.530 | 0.250 | 0.250 | ||
Wet | 0.126 | 0.218 | 0.465 | −0.133 | −0.049 | 0.170 | 0.233 | 1.304 | 1.748 | 1.000 | ||
JFM | 0.016 | 0.083 | 0.011 | −0.025 | 0.000 | −0.023 | 0.145 | −0.242 | 0.191 | 0.143 | ||
AMJ | 0.007 | 0.175 | 0.055 | −0.091 | 0.000 | −0.027 | −0.054 | 0.053 | 0.000 | 0.111 | ||
JAS | 0.119 | 0.262 | 0.053 | −0.155 | −0.095 | 0.182 | 0.222 | 0.070 | 0.732 | 0.646 | ||
OND | 0.118 | 0.216 | 0.120 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.190 | 0.378 | 0.163 | 1.000 | 0.500 | ||
Pirates Cove | Annual | 0.048 | −0.158 | 0.072 | −0.321 | −0.111 | Umatac | 0.046 | 0.381 | 0.017 | 0.327 | 0.297 |
Dry | 0.003 | −0.239 | 0.984 | 0.278 | 0.293 | 0.040 | 0.359 | 0.624 | 0.231 | 0.131 | ||
Wet | 0.106 | 0.017 | 0.241 | 0.222 | 0.042 | 0.093 | 0.477 | 0.262 | 0.212 | 0.167 | ||
JFM | −0.013 | −0.634 | 0.033 | 0.333 | 0.091 | 0.028 | 0.406 | 0.045 | 0.085 | 0.000 | ||
AMJ | 0.068 | −0.151 | 0.041 | −0.083 | 0.000 | 0.045 | 0.330 | 0.078 | 0.134 | 0.103 | ||
JAS | 0.094 | −0.350 | −0.099 | −0.400 | −0.174 | 0.119 | 0.485 | 0.125 | 0.059 | 0.143 | ||
OND | 0.106 | 0.498 | −0.029 | 0.200 | 0.143 | 0.045 | 0.490 | −0.019 | 0.074 | 0.000 | ||
Yigo | Annual | −0.017 | 0.319 | −0.065 | −0.381 | −0.273 | Windward | 0.011 | 0.067 | 0.003 | 0.155 | 0.081 |
Dry | −0.011 | 0.124 | −0.441 | −0.286 | −0.083 | 0.011 | −0.015 | 0.213 | 0.140 | 0.091 | ||
Wet | 0.004 | 0.189 | −0.962 | −0.286 | −0.313 | 0.019 | 0.091 | −0.062 | 0.092 | 0.047 | ||
JFM | −0.002 | 0.184 | −0.075 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.018 | 0.122 | 0.034 | 0.075 | 0.037 | ||
AMJ | 0.010 | 0.258 | −0.061 | −0.133 | −0.059 | −0.009 | −0.068 | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.000 | ||
JAS | 0.078 | 0.635 | −0.120 | 0.000 | −0.108 | 0.046 | 0.181 | 0.018 | 0.119 | 0.065 | ||
OND | −0.038 | −0.396 | −0.169 | −0.395 | −0.200 | −0.001 | 0.025 | −0.020 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Site | Rx1day (mm) | Rx5day (mm) | R95pTOT (mm) | R99pTOT (mm) | Site | Rx1day (mm) | Rx5day (mm) | R95pTOT (mm) | R99pTOT (mm) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AAFB | Annual | −0.313 | −0.313 | 0.095 | 0.208 | Alamosa | 3.647 | 3.647 | 0.375 | 0.756 |
Dry | 0.066 | 0.581 | 0.073 | 0.113 | 1.550 | 2.222 | 0.248 | 0.832 | ||
Wet | 0.03 | 0.442 | 0.123 | 0.294 | 2.310 | 3.653 | 0.155 | 0.667 | ||
JFM | 0.148 | 0.394 | 0.026 | 0.085 | 1.067 | 1.920 | 0.336 | 0.677 | ||
AMJ | 0.111 | 0.572 | 0.125 | 0.077 | 0.762 | −0.488 | 0.054 | 0.477 | ||
JAS | 0 | 0.472 | 0.051 | 0.136 | 1.239 | 2.552 | 0.531 | 0.913 | ||
OND | 0.18 | 0.162 | 0.141 | 0.369 | 1.141 | 3.777 | 0.110 | 0.694 | ||
Dededo | Annual | −2.578 | −2.578 | −0.290 | −0.661 | Fena | 2.642 | 2.642 | 0.128 | 0.581 |
Dry | −0.593 | −2.064 | −0.116 | −0.376 | 1.263 | 1.727 | 0.015 | 0.246 | ||
Wet | −1.461 | −1.981 | −0.734 | −1.318 | 1.734 | 3.191 | 0.038 | 0.393 | ||
JFM | −0.540 | −0.914 | −0.090 | −0.368 | 0.150 | 1.369 | 0.080 | 0.097 | ||
AMJ | −0.457 | −1.036 | −0.190 | −0.339 | 0.496 | −0.777 | −0.091 | 0.477 | ||
JAS | −0.305 | −0.635 | −0.571 | −0.653 | 1.753 | 3.469 | 0.332 | 0.896 | ||
OND | −2.332 | −3.714 | −0.738 | −1.679 | 0.361 | 2.247 | −0.169 | −0.025 | ||
Guam AP | Annual | 0.305 | −0.286 | 0.016 | 0.072 | Geomag | −19.304 | −19.304 | 0.013 | −2.540 |
Dry | 0.191 | −0.520 | 0.013 | 0.04 | 4.205 | −0.381 | −1.298 | 1.080 | ||
Wet | 0.2 | −0.073 | 0.06 | 0.081 | −21.209 | −19.304 | −0.560 | −1.245 | ||
JFM | −0.113 | −0.683 | −0.001 | −0.039 | 4.657 | 4.064 | −1.026 | 0.953 | ||
AMJ | 0.254 | −0.796 | 0.013 | 0.118 | 0.889 | −8.033 | −0.219 | −1.630 | ||
JAS | 0.447 | 0.142 | 0.125 | 0.23 | −21.209 | −34.629 | −1.565 | −6.745 | ||
OND | 0.061 | −0.018 | 0.002 | −0.017 | −0.127 | 6.763 | 1.441 | 0.857 | ||
Inaraja | Annual | −0.286 | −0.286 | 0.237 | 0.076 | Mt. Chachao | 0.816 | 0.816 | 0.100 | −0.348 |
Dry | −0.098 | −0.520 | 0.099 | 0.113 | −0.044 | 0.883 | 0.006 | −0.116 | ||
Wet | −0.322 | −0.073 | 0.346 | 0.134 | 0.795 | 1.386 | −0.065 | 0.392 | ||
JFM | −0.237 | −0.683 | −0.062 | −0.006 | −0.073 | 0.688 | 0.086 | 0.135 | ||
AMJ | −0.074 | −0.796 | 0.085 | 0.114 | 0.000 | 0.541 | −0.033 | −0.099 | ||
JAS | 0.000 | 0.142 | 0.327 | 0.091 | 0.955 | 1.386 | 0.082 | 0.862 | ||
OND | −0.385 | −0.018 | 0.019 | −0.092 | −0.798 | 1.194 | 0.015 | −0.208 | ||
Mangilao | Annual | −0.178 | −0.178 | 0.233 | 0.521 | Mt. Santa Rosa | 3.821 | 3.821 | 0.328 | 1.140 |
Dry | −0.271 | −0.808 | 0.162 | −0.053 | −0.145 | −2.977 | 0.119 | 0.228 | ||
Wet | 0.492 | −0.198 | 0.254 | 0.208 | 2.853 | 4.709 | 0.732 | 2.706 | ||
JFM | −0.092 | −0.508 | 0.124 | −0.152 | 0.318 | −1.521 | 0.175 | −0.231 | ||
AMJ | −0.062 | −0.635 | 0.195 | 0.058 | 0.305 | −0.018 | 0.089 | 0.333 | ||
JAS | 0.254 | −1.664 | 0.327 | 0.222 | 3.419 | 4.699 | 0.890 | 1.819 | ||
OND | 0.381 | 1.067 | 0.391 | 0.373 | 3.144 | 6.350 | 0.654 | 2.073 | ||
Pirates Cove | Annual | 5.854 | 5.854 | 0.094 | 1.728 | Umatac | 2.264 | 2.264 | 0.381 | 0.565 |
Dry | −0.469 | 0.586 | 0.801 | 1.132 | 0.585 | 2.447 | 0.311 | 0.708 | ||
Wet | 7.295 | 8.113 | 0.637 | 0.233 | 1.487 | 2.390 | 0.370 | 0.611 | ||
JFM | −1.270 | −1.755 | 0.433 | 0.160 | −0.205 | 0.205 | 0.253 | 0.226 | ||
AMJ | 1.727 | 1.355 | 0.495 | 1.027 | 0.381 | 1.055 | 0.219 | 0.635 | ||
JAS | 4.410 | 6.512 | 0.205 | −0.507 | 1.796 | 2.319 | 0.633 | 1.503 | ||
OND | 3.598 | 5.956 | 0.528 | 0.064 | −0.248 | 1.257 | 0.211 | 0.132 | ||
Yigo | Annual | −1.711 | −1.711 | −0.107 | −0.394 | Windward | −0.088 | −0.088 | 0.017 | 0.157 |
Dry | −0.711 | −1.651 | −0.170 | −0.166 | 0.235 | 0.548 | 0.128 | 0.236 | ||
Wet | −0.720 | −1.722 | −0.534 | −0.389 | 0.602 | −0.194 | −0.060 | 0.136 | ||
JFM | −0.670 | −1.295 | −0.109 | −0.496 | 0.120 | 0.165 | 0.097 | 0.208 | ||
AMJ | −0.282 | −1.746 | −0.201 | −0.007 | 0.008 | −0.027 | 0.037 | 0.062 | ||
JAS | −0.310 | −0.776 | −0.371 | −0.237 | 0.545 | −0.064 | 0.146 | 0.369 | ||
OND | −0.750 | −1.981 | −0.515 | −0.847 | −0.030 | 0.621 | −0.169 | −0.075 |
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Yeo, M.-H.; Patil, U.D.; Chang, A.; King, R. Changing Trends in Temperatures and Rainfalls in the Western Pacific: Guam. Climate 2023, 11, 81. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11040081
Yeo M-H, Patil UD, Chang A, King R. Changing Trends in Temperatures and Rainfalls in the Western Pacific: Guam. Climate. 2023; 11(4):81. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11040081
Chicago/Turabian StyleYeo, Myeong-Ho, Ujwalkumar D. Patil, Adriana Chang, and Romina King. 2023. "Changing Trends in Temperatures and Rainfalls in the Western Pacific: Guam" Climate 11, no. 4: 81. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11040081
APA StyleYeo, M. -H., Patil, U. D., Chang, A., & King, R. (2023). Changing Trends in Temperatures and Rainfalls in the Western Pacific: Guam. Climate, 11(4), 81. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11040081