1. Introduction
This manuscript is focused on the theory of stochastic orders. A lot of effort has been made on this topic during the last decades due to its importance from the theoretical and applied points of view. Very basically, a stochastic order attempts to order probabilities in some sense. Nowadays, stochastic orders are applied in numerous fields like insurance, economics, decision theory, reliability, quality control, medicine, etc.
An integral stochastic order is a stochastic order which can be characterized by means of the comparison of the integrals of a set of functions with respect to the corresponding probabilities, such a set called generator of the order. Some integral stochastic orders have a common condition in relation to the functions of their generators, these are composed of functions which are increasing on appropriate directions. As examples of such orders, we have
- (i)
the usual multivariate stochastic order, which has as a generator the set of all increasing functions that is, the generator is made up of mappings which are increasing on the directions of the vectors in , where stands for the ith-unit vector of ;
- (ii)
the time value of money stochastic order, a generator of that stochastic order is given by the functions which are increasing on the directions of the vectors in , with , , and ;
- (iii)
the family of strong extremality orders, a generator of the strong extremality order in the direction (unit sphere of ) is made up of functions which are increasing on the directions given by the vectors in , where is a rotation matrix such that with .
In order to develop a general analysis of integral stochastic orders satisfying the above condition, we introduce a class of integral stochastic orders with generators which are made up of increasing functions on the directions given by finite subsets of vectors in . These orders will be called directional stochastic orders. The aim of the manuscript was the study of those orders in depth, developing characterizations and properties, and providing useful results to apply in applied problems.
The results of this work permit to provide a thorough study of any order which belongs to the class of directional orders without the necessity of a particular analysis. Moreover, the class considered in the manuscript permits to introduce new orders (as we develop in
Section 6, to approach a problem in financial mathematics), the properties of those orders being immediate to state by the theoretical study of the paper.
Our research plan will be focused on the analysis of the relations between two directional stochastic orders given by two different finite subsets of vectors in
(
Section 3), the development of geometrical characterizations of directional orders (
Section 4), and the study of relevant properties of those orders (
Section 5). Moreover, a new directional stochastic order for the comparison of investments with random cash flows is introduced in
Section 6, as an application of the results in the present manuscript.
2. Preliminaries
A binary relation on a set which is reflexive, transitive, and antisymmetric is said to be a partial order on . The pair is called a partially ordered set. If is reflexive and transitive, is called a pre-order.
Let be a partially ordered set. A set is said to be an upper set if for any and any with , .
Given and partially ordered sets, a mapping is order-preserving if for any with , . A mapping is said to be -preserving if for any such that , .
Let and be partially ordered sets. A mapping is said to be an order-isomorphism if is order-preserving, there exists inverse of and is order-preserving, equivalently, is bijective and for all , if and only if .
Two partially ordered sets and are said to be order-isomorphic if there exists an order-isomorphism .
A partial order ⪯ on is said to be closed if the set is closed in the (usual) product topology.
All the above concepts are defined in the case of pre-orders in a similar way.
See for instance [
1,
2,
3] for an introduction to the theory of ordered sets.
A stochastic order is a pre-order relation on a set of probabilities.
In the present manuscript, we consider stochastic orders which are defined on , the set of probabilities of the measurable space with the usual Borel -algebra on .
Given a random vector X, will denote its expected value and its induced probability.
Let ⪯ denote a stochastic order on and let X and Y be two random vectors, will mean that .
A stochastic order ⪯ is said to be integral when there exists a set
of real measurable mappings such that for two random vectors
X and
Y
for any
such that the integrals exist. The set
is said to be a generator of the order.
Some integral stochastic orders which will appear in the manuscript are the following. Let X and Y be -valued random vectors,
- (i)
X is said to be smaller than
Y in the usual stochastic order, denoted by
, if
for all increasing functions
for which the expectations exist (see, for instance, [
4,
5]).
- (ii)
Let .
It is said that
X is smaller than
Y in the time value of money stochastic order, if
for any
such that the above expectations exist. This relation will be denoted by
(see [
6]).
- (iii)
Given (unit sphere of ), let be a rotation matrix such that where . Let where , and ( stands for the indicator function of A, with ). Define the order on given by if for all with .
We say that
X is smaller than
Y in the strong extremality stochastic order in the direction
u, denoted by
, if
for any
-preserving mapping
such that the above integrals exist (see [
7]).
An introduction to the theory of stochastic orderings can be found, for instance, in [
4,
5,
8]. The reader is referred to [
4,
9] for a precise analysis of integral stochastic orders.
Let P be a probability in , and let be a measurable mapping, then will denote the probability on given by for any
Let a be an element of , will stand for the degenerate distribution at a.
Let be the ith-unit vector, that is, with number 1 in position i, . The zero vector of will be denoted by .
The usual componentwise order on will be denoted by ≤.
Given a set of vectors in , the convex cone defined by V is the set of all conical combinations of vectors in V, that is, . Moreover, will denote the span of V, that is, is the vector space of all linear combinations of the elements in V with scalars in .
Let S be a vector subspace of , will be its orthogonal supplementary subspace in and will stand for the orthogonal projection onto S.
The Minkowski sum of two subsets A and B of , is the set . It is well-known that the Minkowski sum of two convex sets is a convex set.
3. Directional Stochastic Orders
In this section, the concept of V-directional stochastic order, where V is a finite subset of , is introduced. Relations between directional orders given by different subsets of are studied.
The following set of mappings provides the definition of the new class of stochastic orders. Let
be a set of vectors in
. Consider
Definition 1. Let be a set of vectors in . Let X and Y be random vectors. It will be said that X is less than Y in the V-directional stochastic order, if for any such that the above expectations exist. This relation will be denoted by .
Some multivariate stochastic orders are directional orders, as the following examples show.
Example 1. Recall that is the ith-unit vector, .
- (i)
Let . Then, is the order .
- (ii)
Let , where , , and . According to Theorem 1 in [6], is the order . - (iii)
Let , where and is a rotation matrix such that with . Then, is the order since the condition is equivalent to (see [7]).
Let us study relations between two directional stochastic orders given by different subsets of .
Proposition 1. Let V and be finite sets of vectors in . Then, implies if and only if .
Proof. Assume that implies but . Then, there exist , , , and with . Therefore, the relation is false, but this is a contradiction with the fact that implies , because .
The converse is trivial. □
In order to obtain other relations between two directional stochastic orders, we consider the conical combinations of vectors in those subsets. In fact, we will see that the V-directional stochastic order is characterized by means of the cone .
Lemma 1. Let be a set of vectors in . Then, is a convex closed set.
Proof. The convexity of is trivial.
If
, it is closed. Consider
. Note that
. Now, Proposition 1.4.7 in [
10] provides that
is closed. □
The following results will provide that characterizes .
Proposition 2 (Theorem A.3.1 in [
11]).
Let A be a closed convex set in that does not contain the origin. Then, there exists a real linear function ξ defined on and such that for all x in A. In particular, the hyperplane does not intersect A. Lemma 2. Let be a set of vectors in . Let with . Let and . Then,
- (i)
is a convex closed set,
- (ii)
does not contain the origin.
Proof. It is easy to prove that B is convex and closed. As a consequence, so is . Then, is a convex set.
Let such that . Let us see that . For all , with and .
If is bounded, so is . Thus, there are convergent subsequences such that and . Since B and are closed, and . Hence, .
If is not bounded, then is unbounded, and there exists a subsequence with . Take .
We obtain that , but which is closed. As a consequence, , which is a contradiction.
Now, suppose that . Then, there exists such that with . Then, , which is a contradiction. □
Proposition 3. Let be a set of vectors in . Let with . Then, there exists a linear function such that for all , and .
Proof. According to Lemma 2, is a closed convex set which does not contain the origin. Proposition 2 provides that there exits a linear mapping such that for all . Note that . Then, .
Now, consider , , where . Clearly, for all . Then, for all . As a consequence, for all . □
By means of the previous results, we will see that the functions in are determined by . As a consequence, the stochastic order is characterized by the convex cone .
Proposition 4. Let be a set of vectors in and . Then, if and only if .
Proof. Suppose that , that is, with for all . Clearly, . Let . For all and , . Then, , and so .
Conversely, suppose that and . By Proposition 3, there exists a linear function such that for all , and . Therefore, , but , which is a contradiction. □
Proposition 5. Let be a set of vectors in and . Then, is the same order as if and only if .
Proof. It follows from Propositions 1 and 4. □
Proposition 6. Let V and be finite sets of vectors in . Then, implies if and only if .
Proof. Firstly, suppose that . Clearly, . Proposition 1 ensures that implies .
Now, suppose that implies but there exists with . As a consequence of Proposition 3, there exists a linear function such that with , but this is a contradiction with which must be true because . □
Proposition 7. Let be a subset of with linearly independent vectors. Then, there exist such that is order-isomorphic to , with .
Proof. Consider a basis of . Let be the linear map such that , and . Note that h is a bijective mapping.
Let given by , for any .
Observe that
h is bijective and measurable, as a consequence, so is
(see, for instance, [
12,
13]). That guarantees that
is bijective.
Let . Firstly, let us see that . Let . For all , and it holds that because . In a similar way, implies that .
Now, suppose that . For all , holds. Then, . As a consequence, .
The converse can be proved analogously.
Hence, if and only if . Thus, is order-isomorphic to . □
4. Geometrical Characterization of Directional Stochastic Orders
In this section, we analyze the way in which the set of conical combinations of vectors in V determines the V-directional stochastic order.
Definition 2. Let be a set of vectors in . Let x and y be vectors in . It is said that x is less than y in if . This relation will be denoted by .
Note that is reflexive and transitive, but it is not antisymmetric if contains non-trivial subspaces of . In the case where does not contain non-trivial subspaces of , is a partially ordered set.
Let us consider the class of all -preserving mappings, that is, when for any x and y in such that , holds.
Definition 3. Let be a set of vectors in . Let X and Y be random vectors. It will be said that X is less than Y in the stochastic order if for any such that the above expectations exist. This relation will be denoted by .
Proposition 8. Let be a set of vectors in . Then, is the same stochastic order as .
Proof. Proposition 1 ensures the result if .
We have that for all , and , . Then, . Let . Let x and y be vectors in such that . Then, , where with . Therefore, . Hence, . As a consequence, . □
We have seen that directional stochastic orders are generated by pre-orders on
and the corresponding class of preserving mappings. In the case where the pre-orders are orders, those stochastic orders have been studied in mathematical literature. The reader is referred, for instance, to [
4,
14,
15,
16,
17] and their references for this kind of stochastic orders.
Now, we study characterizations of depending on the existence of non-trivial subspaces of contained in .
Firstly, we consider the case where does not contain non-trivial vector subspaces. Recall that in this case, is a partially ordered set.
Proposition 9. Let be a set of vectors in such that does not contain non-trivial vector subspaces. Then, is a closed order.
Proof. We should prove that is closed. Let be a sequence which converges to . Therefore, for all , and tends to . By Lemma 1, is closed. Then, and so . □
Corollary 1. Let be a set of vectors in such that does not contain non-trivial vector subspaces. Let X and Y be random vectors. Then, the following conditions are equivalent,
- (i)
,
- (ii)
there are random vectors and defined on the same probability space, with the same distributions as X and Y, respectively, such that almost surely,
- (iii)
for all bounded, continuous, and -preserving functions f,
- (iv)
for all upper sets U with respect to ,
- (v)
for all closed upper sets U with respect to .
Proof. Since the partial order
is closed, the result follows from [
14]. See also Theorems 2.6.3 and 2.6.4 in [
4]. □
Now, we study the case where non-trivial subspaces of are contained in . Note that in this case, is not an order but a pre-order.
Proposition 10. Let be a set of vectors in such that there exists a non-trivial subspace S of with . Then, is the same stochastic order as , where , being a basis of S.
Proof. Note that , . Then, for all . As a consequence, . By Proposition 6, implies .
On the other hand, for any , . Therefore, . Then, . Proposition 6 ensures that implies .
As a consequence, and are the same stochastic order. □
Proposition 11. Let be a set of vectors in such that there exists a non-trivial subspace S of with . Let X and Y be random vectors. Then, if and only if .
Proof. By Proposition 10, we have that if and only if , where , being a basis of S. This is the same as for all .
Let , then . For all , and , and . As a consequence, any f in is constant on the direction of any vector in S. Then, for all , .
Now, for all is equivalent to for all , that is, , which is equivalent to by Proposition 10. □
Corollary 2. Let be a subset of with where . Let X and Y be random vectors. Then, if and only if .
Note that Proposition 9 and Corollary 1 show the behavior of when is a partially ordered set. Proposition 11 ensures that, in the case where the non-stochastic pre-order is not an order, that is, a non-trivial subspace S of is contained in , the orthogonal projection onto characterizes the stochastic order . In light of that result, the idea is to consider a maximal subspace S under the above conditions and work “outside” S in order to obtain properties similar to those for the case where is a partially ordered set.
Proposition 12. Let be a set of vectors in such that there exists a non-trivial subspace S of with . Then, if and only if , where and is any linear bijective mapping.
Proof. Proposition 10 ensures that if and only if where , being a basis of S. Note that .
Let . Consider . For all with , and , . Trivially, for all and , . Hence, .
Let . Consider . For all and , we have that
- (1)
when with ,
- (2)
when .
As a consequence, for all , and , . Thus, . Moreover, when we apply these maps to vectors in .
Now, by Proposition 11, if and only if for all , which is for all . Note that the previous condition involves vectors in . As a consequence, if and only if . We have that , and , with . Now, Proposition 5 ensures the result. □
5. Properties of Directional Stochastic Orders
The main properties of directional stochastic orders are analyzed in this section.
Proposition 13. Let be a set of vectors in . Then, implies , if and only if, for all .
Proof. Suppose that for all . Let be the span of , where . For all , and , because for all . Then, for all . Therefore, implies that for all , so .
Conversely, suppose that for all random vectors X and Y such that , holds. Note that for every , for all . Then, for all . As a consequence, for all . □
Proposition 14. Let be a set of vectors in . Let X and Y be random vectors such that . Then, for all scalars .
Proof. Let and . Consider such that for all , . For all , and , . Then , which proves the result. □
Proposition 15. Let be a set of vectors in . Then, is closed under mixtures.
Proof. Note that is an integral order. □
Proposition 16. Let be a set of vectors in . Then, is closed under convolution.
Proof. Note that for all and any , the mapping , with for all , is in . □
The behavior of directional stochastic orders under weak convergence is analyzed now.
Proposition 17. Let be a set of vectors in . The stochastic order is closed under weak convergence.
Proof. Firstly, consider the case where is a set of vectors in such that does not contain non-trivial vector subspaces. By Corollary 1, there exits a generator of of bounded continuous functions. Thus, is closed under weak convergence.
In case of non-trivial vector subspaces in , let . Note that . It is not hard to prove that S is a subspace of contained in such that any other subspace in is contained in S. By Proposition 12, if and only if , where and h is any linear bijective map from to . As a result of the maximality of S, does not contain non-trivial vector subspaces of . Therefore, is closed under weak convergence. Since is continuous, by Proposition 12, is also closed under weak convergence. □
6. An Application of Directional Stochastic Orders
An application of directional stochastic orders to financial mathematics is developed in this section.
Consider the comparison of two investments which provide n random cash flows. Let and be the corresponding random vectors of cash flows, where and denote the cash flow at instant of the corresponding investment, with , and .
Assume an economic context with negative rates of interest or under negative inflation rates, when financial institutions and companies should pay some rates for the money custody. In that case, a company could prefer to receive earnings streams or cash flows later on. Very basically, the later the flows arrive, the lower the rates the company pays.
Under this framework, a company would prefer to “transfer” the first cash flow to the second cash flow, the second flow to the third flow, and so on. Thus, the comparison of investments could be performed by means of the comparison of the expected benefits of mappings which are increasing in the direction of , which reflect that transfer preference. Of course those mappings should be increasing in the direction of , that is, the greater the first flow is, the better the result of the investment.
Let . Consider the mappings of . Such functions reflect the preferences of the companies under the considered economic framework.
For instance, in a 2-years investment with flows at the end of each year, the vector of flows is preferred to the vector of flows . Note that for any , it holds that since .
Observe that the mappings of are also increasing in the directions of , with , since , and so, in accordance with Proposition 4, it holds that = From an applied point of view, this means that the greater the flows are, the greater the profit of the investment.
The following criterion can be introduced to compare investments under the above economic situation. The investment associated with the random vector Y is preferred to the investment of random vector X, if for any mapping that is, when .
The unified study of directional stochastic orders developed in this manuscript permits to derive properties of the proposed order immediately.
- (i)
According to Proposition 7, the directional stochastic order is order-isomorphic to the usual stochastic order. The proof of that proposition provides that the order-isomorphism is given by the bijective linear map such that and . Note that h is bijective since V is a basis of
Proposition 7 ensures that
, that is,
, if and only if,
, equivalently,
. That is the same as
, where
A is an
real matrix such that
if
otherwise 0. Hence,
if and only if
It is interesting to note the importance of that characterization of the order
by means of the usual multivariate stochastic order
, since there are statistical tests to infer on the order
in statistical literature (see, for instance, [
18]). This permits to apply inferential procedures to tests on the order
.
That is, the stochastic order is easily characterized by means of the well-known usual stochastic order.
- (ii)
Since does not contain non-trivial vector subspaces, Corollary 1 provides important characterizations of the order , like that based on the construction of random vectors on the same probability space, namely, if and only if there are random vectors and on a same probability space, with the probability distributions of X and Y, respectively, such that almost surely, that is, almost surely.
- (iii)
Since , Proposition 6 assures that the usual stochastic order implies the order .
- (iv)
By the results of
Section 5, we obtain that the order is not closed with respect to the formation of expectations, but is closed under the product by positive scalars, under mixtures, under convolution, and under weak convergence.
- (v)
The above-mentioned order-isomorphism simplifies the analysis of the directional stochastic order with normal random vectors.
Let
and
. Observe that
is the same as
, and this is equivalent to
. Note that
and
. Sufficient and necessary conditions to order normal distributions in the usual multivariate stochastic order can be found, for instance, in Theorem 3.3.13 in [
4]. Thus,
if and only if
, and
for any
.
Note that for any , is the same as for any , and implies since A is regular.
Then, if and only if for any , and .
Thus, the comparison of investments in our framework when random cash flows follow normal distribution, is reduced to the simple comparison of the mean vectors and matrix covariances.
- (vi)
Consider the case of t multivariate distributions. Let X and Y be t random vectors with freedom degrees and , mean vectors and , and matrices parameter and , respectively.
We know that if and only if , equivalently .
It is known that
and
have
t distribution with freedom degrees
and
, mean vectors
and
, and matrices parameter
and
, respectively. Now, by Proposition 3.26 in [
6],
if and only if
,
for any
, and
.
As a consequence, if and only if , for any , and .
Hence, the comparison of investments with cash flows following t distribution, can be performed by the comparison of the mean vectors and matrix covariances.
Observe that this reasoning could be applied to other multivariate distributions.
To conclude, it is interesting to note that the generator of the order satisfies desirable properties for different scenarios which could happen. For instance, suppose that during the period of the investment, there is a risk of non-payment of flows, risk which decreases over time.
In such a case, the random cash flows are replaced by , respectively, where is the probability of receiving the cash flow Note that since the risk is decreasing. It is not hard to see that if , the mapping with for any , is also in , and so, the comparison of investments is unaffected by the new scenario.
7. Conclusions
In this manuscript, we have introduced a unified approach of those integral stochastic orders whose generators are given by mappings which are increasing on the directions of the vectors of a finite set of . Those stochastic orders have been called directional stochastic orders. Several characterizations of directional stochastic orders are provided in the manuscript, like those based on geometrical arguments, or on non-stochastic pre-orders and their preserving mappings. The results of the manuscript have been illustrated with an application to financial mathematics.