3.1. The Evaluation of Adaptation Indicators
Environment: In the architecture of new districts, unlike the old ones, the focus is more on energies that are not renewable, such that design is based on the use of heating and cooling tools. Based on recent studies performed by the World Health Organization in 1100 cities in the world, during the 2003–2010 time period, in terms of air-bore particles, Sanandaj city was the third most polluted city in the world. On average, annually, there were 119.1 days with air-born particles [
38].
Geographic climate: The districts located in the western part of the city, which are in the catchment of Abidar Mountain, are more in danger of floods. Regarding earthquakes, Sanandaj city is within two earthquake zones of Sanandaj-Sirjan and Zagros, and there is the possibility of earthquakes as strong as six or seven Richter in this city. According to
Table 2, constant temperature fluctuations, rainfall, and freezing do not follow a uniform trend and are increased and decreased in a sinus manner, thereby making weather forecasting quite difficult.
Food Security: The considerable reduction in the annual precipitation of Sanandaj city from 490 to 360 mm, and the excessive use of underground water resources in agriculture are the main reasons for the decrease in the water resources of the city. Ignoring the agricultural potential and its correct directions have led to the addition of 13 villages to the city from 2011 to 2021 [
27]. More than 800 hectares of agricultural lands around the city have witnessed the change in their application (
Table 3).
Infrastructures: Due to the topographical condition and the different slopes of the city, there is a network of labyrinthine streets. Many urban streets have been designed without considering the natural direction of drainage and are often perpendicular to the land slope (
Figure 3). One of the problems in the energy distribution system is lagging behind technology.
More than 97% of the electricity distribution network is of air type in Sanandaj city [
38]. The air network, due to more accessibility, is more subject to danger. In gas distribution lines, most part of the city is covered by steel pipes, while it is known that poly-ethylene pipes have such superior properties as no corrosion or rusting, flexibility in temperatures less than zero, no breakage, and thermal insulation [
39].
Land use: Land use, known as the surfaces having open space, can be very effective in the adsorption of surface waters and controlling urban floods: The use of green space refers to gardens and farms. Most gardens of Sanandaj city are near the Gheshlag River in zone four, such that it could control the torrents of the river, but in recent years, with the development of the city around this river, a large part of these lands has been destroyed and replaced by urban land use, especially residential uses.
Zone four had the highest percentage of green space. This was due to the location of Deghayeran village and agricultural lands in this zone, which have been added to the city in the recent decade.
GIS specialized center of the University of Kurdistan has identified 37 places as the accommodation centers of people suffering from natural and artificial disasters in Sanandaj based on the analysis of the data related to land use, faults, water resources, roads accessible, and city topography. These identified zones are not yet ready for the people who may suffer.
Public services: According to the survey conducted among the local people, more than 46.6 met their needs outside their neighborhood. This was due to the inappropriate distribution of land uses in the neighborhoods. According to Iran Statistics Center, in Sanandaj city, there are 135 medical centers, 38 sanitary centers, and 6 medical institutes with 1287 hospital beds. Given the centrality of Sanandaj city, the capacity of these medical centers cannot adequately meet the needs of people. Sanandaj has 5 firefighting stations and 80 operational forces. The number of firefighters in this city is half of the rate of the country (for 2500, there is one firefighter). In order to attain the standard, 80 more operational forces are required.
Demographic features: More than one-third of the Sanandaj population consisted of people younger than 15 and older than 65. As the number of people in this age range rises, rescue operations can be more difficult in emergencies. In terms of population concentration, zones two and one had the highest concentration (
Table 4). If the necessary predictions and measures are not adopted, the greatest damage is likely to occur in these zones.
Social relations: The social relations of the residents in different zones of Sanandaj city were evaluated by surveying and asking them about the three factors regarding their respect for neighbors’ rights, their tendency to cooperate with neighbors to resolve the problems, and their interest in asking for help in the case of emergencies. More than 80 percent of them reported strong relations.
Social security and welfare: The rate of crime in Sanandaj city was only available for addiction, thief, and suicide. This was increased from 0.56 in 2014 to 0.62% in 2016 (last census) [
27]. Based on the information obtained from surveys, more than 11 percent of people had no medical insurance.
Education: The results of public surveys showed that 67.9% of people had weak skills in promptly reacting to the events. Given the motto of the Red Crescent, “each Iranian family is a saver”, there should be as many educated people as the number of families so that in the case of events, they can help themselves and their families. This was very low in Sanandaj city, and the number of trained people was less than 10% of the population.
Employment: According to the census of people and houses conducted in 2016, the rate of unemployment in people older than 10 years was 32.2% in the city of Sanandaj, which was high and influenced job security. For disasters, there should be strong financial support for compensating for the damage incurred by the buildings. Based on the data obtained from the questionnaires, more than 75% of the buildings did not have this kind of insurance.
Income: In 2016 (last census), the inflation rate was 1.3 percent more than that of the income level. This creates a problem for families in meeting their basic needs, and they cannot cater to other things.
Non-governmental organizations: The duties of such organizations are not clear in city management, and there is no definition for the services provided by them. At the same time, their participation has not been predicted in the urban planning process. These are the major reasons behind the lack of participation by these organizations. The survey showed that only 51% of the residents tended to participate in city affairs.
Governmental organizations: In 2016, credits as many as billions were devoted to Kurdistan Province by the government. These credits were divided between the municipalities for the development of urban infrastructures, and they were not used for coping with unexpected events.
Based on the interviews conducted with some experts in the concerned organizations (such as gas companies, water organizations, and electricity offices), all of these are expected to be supported by the crisis management, while each of these organizations should be responsible for all their services before and after the crisis.
3.4. Suggestions
Adapting to the changes and decreasing the dangers make it possible to continue development in the midst of all events, as the local governments assume responsibility for the disasters, and such disasters are not to disrupt the lives of people. Planning and developing strategies for resiliency cannot be limited to a particular framework. This should be performed according to the unique conditions of the cities and the developmental plans. The indicators that are weak or show some stagnation during a period are among those that can hinder urban resilience. Thus, it is necessary to find causes, weaknesses, or stagnation of these indicators that, with planning, can be improved to foster resiliency.
In order to move toward a resilient city, future investments should go beyond material investment and technical solutions and should consider the development of humans, society, institutional capacity, and inter-city cooperation. One of the ways to promote investment and social trust is the development of participatory management, such that the local stakeholders can be ready for the changes. The cooperation between governmental institutions, instead of bestowing all the responsibility of coping with and preparing for things to one part, seems to be necessary. It should be noted that while the costs and measures of resilience are at the present time, the benefits can be observed in the future; as the concentration of humans and their properties in the city are increased, the possibility of losing them is also increased.
In spite of the differences between the dimensions of the city, there are some general and common measures that can help resilience, some of which are mentioned here:
Ecologic: Protecting ecologies and natural buffers for the reduction of floods and storms; preventing construction in dangerous areas; agricultural development; and designing based on the use of renewable energies.
Structural: Improving the safety coefficient in the buildings; ensuring the accessibility of the fundamental services for all and providing supportive services following disasters; protecting city infrastructures; and using the technology in constructing city installations.
Social: Developing and strengthening scientific multi-dimensional studies that are coordinated and protecting research and science centers; paving the way for education and further understanding of the relations between climate issues and city problems; and planning for the balanced distribution of population.
Economic: Using a wide variety of local economic activities; planning for the sustainability of business; strengthening the economic abilities of the citizens; and empowering those living in less developed zones.
Managerial–institutional: Creating the institutional capacity; considering resilience in preparing city plans; and developing a participative management system.