Possible Roles of Permafrost Melting, Atmospheric Transport, and Solar Irradiance in the Development of Major Coronavirus and Influenza Pandemics
Abstract
:1. Introduction and Background
- (1)
- Invention of airplanes has not hastened onsets: early cases of the 1889 influenza pandemic appeared in St Petersburg 10 days before eruption in London and other European cities, and only 5 weeks prior to onset in New York [2]. This timing outpaces initial development of COVID-19, where the first appearance in China preceded surges in Italy and Iran by ~5 weeks and the US by ~9 weeks. Instead, changes in spreading rates within any given country of MRVPs over the past ~230 years, as presented by Sanders-Hasting and Krewski [1], strongly correlate with advances in ground transportation. Thus, more than one mechanism of spreading exists.
- (2)
- Although jet travel dispersed the first SARS coronavirus in 2003, it only provided 1–3 cases in many countries, whereas >7500 out of ~8100 total cases occurred in China or nearby [3]. Since below 0.0002% of the global population was infected, SARS-2003 is best described as an epidemic with outliers, and indicates that jet travel is insufficient to produce large numbers of infections worldwide.
- (3)
- Location of COVID-19 case surges in June 2020 across the southernmost US, but not in the northern and eastern cities which drew large crowds of protestors in May 2020, strongly suggests that factors besides human proximity cause spreading.
- (4)
- Viruses with very high genetic identity are found in very distant and different environments, which can be explained by atmospheric transport of organic aerosols [4]. Rapid distribution of high volumes of viruses over large distances characterizes pandemics. This can be realized through airborne transport, and is considered as the mechanism for the annual minor influenza pandemic, after Hammond et al. [5]. Viruses in general are transported and transmitted via aerosols [6]. Section 1.2 summarizes data on atmospheric transport of viruses.
1.1. Permafrost as a Possible Source of Large Amounts of Novel Viruses
1.2. Long-Distance Atmospheric Transport of Microbes, Including Coronaviruses
1.3. Roles of Particulates and Pollution in Virus Transport and COVID-19 Cases
1.4. Effect of Solar Ultraviolet Light on Temperature, Viruses, and Immune Response
1.5. Hypothesis and Organization of the Paper
2. Available Data and Methods
3. Permafrost Melting as the Source of Pandemic-Generating Viruses
3.1. Links of Early COVID-19 Cases with Permafrost Distribution
3.2. Correlations in the Timing of MRVPs, Solar Cycles, and Permafrost Melting
3.3. Why Pandemics Rarely Onset in Arctic Regions
4. Transport of Newly Released Viruses by the Northern Polar Jet Stream
4.1. Emergence of COVID-19
4.2. Genomic and Other Evidence for Multiple Points of Origin
5. Environmental and Human Factors Propelling COVID-19 Growth
5.1. Links with Latitude and Climate
5.2. Links with Solar Irradiance
5.3. Human Immune Response to UV
5.4. Links with Poor 2020 Air Quality in Los Angeles
6. A Model for Natural Causes of Major Respiratory Virus Pandemics
7. Model Predictions and Tests
8. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Stage | Natural Process | Key Evidence or Reason |
---|---|---|
Novel virus source | Permafrost melting | Massive reservoir of ancient infectious agents |
Sporadic timing | Climate and solar cycles | Semi-regular; seasonality of flu; rekindling |
Virus transport | North Polar Jet stream | Rapid onset at similar locations historically |
Virus deposition | Rainout; pollution | Viruses and disease linked to particulates |
Case growth | UV immunosuppression | Amplification in sunny regions after flu season |
Multi-year duration | Atmospheric circulation | Infected hosts increase virus content in air; more permafrost melting augments supply |
Historic cessation | Arctic freeze; immunity | Minimal supply with reduced amplification |
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Hofmeister, A.M.; Seckler, J.M.; Criss, G.M. Possible Roles of Permafrost Melting, Atmospheric Transport, and Solar Irradiance in the Development of Major Coronavirus and Influenza Pandemics. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 3055. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18063055
Hofmeister AM, Seckler JM, Criss GM. Possible Roles of Permafrost Melting, Atmospheric Transport, and Solar Irradiance in the Development of Major Coronavirus and Influenza Pandemics. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2021; 18(6):3055. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18063055
Chicago/Turabian StyleHofmeister, Anne M., James M. Seckler, and Genevieve M. Criss. 2021. "Possible Roles of Permafrost Melting, Atmospheric Transport, and Solar Irradiance in the Development of Major Coronavirus and Influenza Pandemics" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 6: 3055. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18063055
APA StyleHofmeister, A. M., Seckler, J. M., & Criss, G. M. (2021). Possible Roles of Permafrost Melting, Atmospheric Transport, and Solar Irradiance in the Development of Major Coronavirus and Influenza Pandemics. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(6), 3055. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18063055