A key assumption underpinning the previous analysis is that all wells currently operational in the Wytch Farm and Wareham fields will maintain their present pattern of (slowly declining) production until 2037. For Wytch Farm, a previous study [
22] considered the alternative production profile shown in
Figure 9, which assumes instead that many wells are taken offline from 2027, in preparation for decommissioning, effectively cutting the water production rate by ~60%. This might well be a more realistic approach, as it is unlikely that future geothermal revenue would support maintaining the entire oilfield infrastructure operational. On the other hand, a future geothermal revenue stream might supplement the revenue from sale of hydrocarbons sufficiently that the economic life of the field might be significantly extended. To illustrate the potential importance of this effect, it is noted that the oil from Wytch Farm, produced at ~10,000 barrels per day (
Figure 7), might be sold for ~US
$40 or ~UK £30 per barrel, thus generating a revenue of ~£300,000 per day. The associated thermal output of ~90 MW, estimated in
Table 4 for Δ
T = 40 °C, might substitute, as a heat source, for natural gas costing ~4p per kWh. If so, the revenue from heat sales would be ~£90,000 per day, a significant supplement to the revenue from oil sales. On the other hand, contracts for heat supply to end users would undoubtedly require substantial periods of notice to be offered ahead of the ultimate shutdown of oil (and heat) production, which might necessitate continuing production after it ceases to be economic.
Figure 7 and
Figure 8 indicate that if the oilfields continue to be managed with the same number of wells, roughly constant thermal power outputs can be expected throughout their remaining lifetime, to the year 2037 under current planning constraints, justifying investment in geothermal infrastructure.
We now discuss three issues in detail: possible uses of the heat output from the Wytch Farm and Wareham fields; comparison of the heat output from these sites with other extant and potential low-temperature geothermal heat projects; and environmental issues.
5.1. Potential Uses of the Heat Output
The co-produced water is highly saline [
61], as already noted, and contains oil even after separation (e.g., 100 ppm of oil at Wytch Farm [
22]). Given that additional water treatment facilities would add costs, only indirect uses are considered in this study, where the produced geofluid would pass through a heat exchanger and transfer heat to a secondary fluid in a ‘clean’ pipe loop.
The spectrum of geothermal energy applications as a function of temperature can be depicted using a Lindal diagram, as in
Figure 1. It is thus evident that the potential range of applications relevant to this study lies at the low-temperature end of this spectrum. In principle, for example, a fourth-generation indirect district heating system, such as that summarised in
Figure 10, might have inlet and return temperatures of 65 and 25 °C, and might thus be compatible with heat supplied from the Wytch Farm field with Δ
T = 40 °C (cf.
Table 4). However, given the rural character of the Wytch Farm/Wareham area, greater scope exists in principle for end uses in the agricultural/horticultural sector. The dramatic expansion of deep geothermal energy in the Netherlands, which by the start of 2019 amounted to 18 projects with a combined thermal output of 221 MW, mostly for horticulture [
10,
11], illustrates the potential scale of this sector in the UK. This expansion followed the demonstration in 2007 that geothermal heating of greenhouses in the Netherlands would be competitive on cost at ~3 p per kWh with heating using natural gas [
64]. Other factors that have facilitated this dramatic development of geothermal heat include open access to subsurface data, with standard software tools for evaluating the potential of projects, a government insurance scheme covering drilling risks, a feed-in tariff for produced heat, and a clear regulatory framework (e.g., [
11,
37,
38,
65,
66]). A consequence of such developments is that the Netherlands has emerged as the world’s leading producer of sustainably sourced fruit and vegetables and—despite its small size—the second-largest exporter of agricultural goods worldwide, after the USA, with annual exports over US
$100 billion (e.g., [
67]).
Nonetheless, temperature alone is not sufficient to guarantee the feasibility of a given geothermal application—thermal power output is also key. To heat a greenhouse, for example, the geofluid temperature should be between 60 and 80 °C (
Figure 1), and the quantity of hot fluid required will depend on the optimum growing temperature for the selected crop (
Table 5), the size of the greenhouse, and the lowest expected outside temperature [
69]. For example, as reported by [
69], the maximum thermal power required by a 28 m × 90 m greenhouse with a floor area of 2520 m
2 and an internal volume of 8911 m
3, a crop growing temperature of 28 °C and a minimum outside temperature of 4 °C, is 595 kW. Given this calculation and the thermal power values in
Table 4, possible scenarios for the number of greenhouses of this design that could theoretically be powered by geothermal heat at the studied sites are listed in
Table 6. From local meteorological data [
70], daily air temperatures in the Wareham area average as ~4 °C in winter, but night-time minima average as ~2 °C, so the thermal power output required for a greenhouse of the stated design would exceed 595 kW, indicating a slightly lower maximum number of greenhouses of the stated size (below that listed in
Table 6) or the stated number would apply to slightly smaller greenhouses; nonetheless, the approximate scale of the horticultural industry that might be sustainable from this source is apparent.
As a guide to the potential economic value of an industry of this type, one may consider the horticulture sector in the Canadian province of Alberta. Here, the combination of a harsh climate, limiting the crops that might be grown outdoors, and abundant supplies of natural gas has led to the development of an extensive horticultural sector using greenhouses. Significant crops thus produced, with typical annual revenue from sales per square metre of greenhouse area, include tomatoes (£55), peppers (£52), bedding plants (£89) and tree seedlings (£49) [
71]. It has indeed been proposed that the high cost of fresh food in northerly parts of Canada, where crops cannot be grown outdoors, might be mitigated by utilising geothermally heated greenhouses; it has indeed been stated, for example, that tomatoes thus produced (using heat drawn from purpose-drilled wells, not repurposed wells) in the Canadian arctic might be bought by consumers for ~£2.50 per kilogramme [
72], similar to the £2.10 typical retail price in the UK (for April 2020) [
73]. At present, ~30% of the UK’s food supply, including 40% of vegetables and 37% of fruit, comes from other European Union (EU) countries [
74]. It is generally accepted that if the UK does not negotiate a Trade Agreement with the EU before it leaves at the end of 2020, tariffs imposed on food imports will cause increases in food prices [
74]. This is because, under World Trade Organisation rules, the UK will be required to impose the same tariffs on imports from EU countries as it does from other countries with whom it has no Trade Agreement. However, the effect this will have on prices of fruit and vegetables is currently unclear: estimates for fruit in the range 3% to 18% have been reported [
74]. Such considerations, and the associated greater complexity of managing food imports and the potential risk of disruption of supply, might well favour the economics of domestic production of food crops in geothermally heated greenhouses, drawing on the present case studies (
Table 4) as an exemplar.
A second potential use of the geothermal resource associated with the water co-produced by the hydrocarbon fields could be for heated residential or commercial swimming pools. According to [
75], swimming pools have a preferred temperature of ~27 °C, although this can vary by up to 5 °C. When the geofluid cannot be used directly, as for this assessment (see above), a heat exchanger is necessary and the required geofluid temperature is ~15 °C above that of the pool water (e.g., 45 °C for 30 °C pool water). The case study reported by [
76] can serve as an exemplar: an outdoor swimming pool with a public part of 455 m
3 volume and a teaching part of 72.2 m
3, required 4.25 kg s
−1 of geofluid at 80 °C to maintain a desired pool temperature of 30.2 °C. With a lower geofluid temperature, but the same pool water volume and temperature, a greater flow rate would be required, according to the governing equation for heat exchangers at steady state:
where
m1 = mass flow rate of pool water as the heat load (kg s−1);
m2 = mass flow rate of geothermal water as the heat source (kg s−1);
cp1 = specific heat capacity of pool water (J kg−1 °C−1);
cp2 = specific heat capacity of geothermal water (J kg−1 °C−1);
T1 = temperature of pool’s cold water before being heated by heat exchanger (°C);
T2 = temperature of pool’s warm water after being heated by heat exchanger (°C);
T3 = temperature of inlet geothermal water at heat exchanger (°C);
T4 = temperature of outlet geothermal water at heat exchanger (°C);
Q = thermal power required to heat the pool (W).
Neglecting any heat losses due to convection, evaporation, radiation, conduction, or rainfall, a reduction in geofluid temperature from 80 °C to the 65 °C at Wytch Farm would require an increased geofluid mass flow rate of 6.08 kg s
−1. Given the predicted rates of water production for the oilfields under analysis,
Table 7 summarises the numbers of swimming pools of the above characteristics that might theoretically be heated.
The above potential applications, horticulture and heated swimming pools, are only theoretical examples of notional uses of the geothermal potential of the Wessex Basin oilfields; other such application might be for breweries (‘fermentation’) or aquaculture (cf.
Figure 1). More detailed calculations would be required to assess the technical and viability of each potential mode of use. A thorough economic analysis would also need to be carried out, taking into account existing operating costs to continue running the oilfield infrastructure (wholly or in part), the reducing revenues from the declining hydrocarbon production rates, and the costs and revenues of the incremental ‘green’ component. The required economic analysis would be much more complicated than that necessary for a project involving drilling of new wells solely for geothermal use (cf. [
72]). Thus, although we note that sale of heat at commercially competitive rates might significantly increase the revenue for a combined hydrocarbon/geothermal project (using data for Wytch Farm; see above) over a hydrocarbon only project, we cannot at this stage demonstrate that the capital, operating and maintenance costs of the geothermal infrastructure would make such a project economic.
5.2. Comparisons with Other Geothermal Projects
The next consideration concerns how the heat resources available from the Wareham and Wytch Farm fields compare with those available for other low-temperature geothermal heat projects. We will make comparisons for both operational projects and potential projects. In the former case, values for both source temperature and thermal power output are usually readily available. In the latter case, source temperatures are known but the thermal power output has to be estimated. To provide a common basis for comparison for heat sources with a wide range of temperatures, in accordance with previous works (e.g., [
34,
77]) thermal power output for potential projects will be estimated using Equation (1) by equating Δ
T to the difference between source temperature
TO and annual mean ambient temperature
TS, and are reported in
Table 8. The resulting estimates of thermal power output are thus idealized upper bounds, which exceed those that might be calculated assuming a specific end use of the energy as in
Table 6 and
Table 7. The comparisons with existing projects in this section, also reported in
Table 8, are, therefore, with peak outputs of heat, where reported, rather than with other measures such as annual mean outputs. It should also be noted that the datasets compiled in
Table 8 are not of the same vintage and therefore do not account for the decline in pressure and temperature that affect some hydrocarbon reservoirs. Indeed, some of the production infrastructure for the North Sea fields listed has already been decommissioned.
Table 8 illustrates the results of this comparison, including the Wytch Farm and Wareham sites from this study and other potential low-temperature UK geothermal heat projects. This ‘potential’ category includes the three oilfields in the northern North Sea with the largest outputs of produced water, using data from [
19], to demonstrate the very large heat outputs that would be possible from these installations if any local heat demand existed. Next are the potential sources of heat from Meerbrook Sough, a drainage adit created for historic lead mining in the Peak District uplands of north-central England, and the Kibblesworth mine dewatering scheme in northeast England, which remains in operation to keep the water table low to avoid surface pollution in the abandoned Durham coalfield. The potential value of both these heat sources was discussed by [
77]. Next are the hypothetical minewater geothermal scheme at Polkemmet in central Scotland and the Glasgow Geothermal Energy Research Field Site (GGERFS), both as discussed by [
78]. Nominal calculations have been provided for the Stockbridge and Welton oilfields, in addition to the analyses of the Wytch Farm and Wareham fields. The list of operational projects is headed by four examples of modern geothermal doublets in the Netherlands: Agriport, Trias Westland, and Vogelaer for horticulture; and the Leyweg scheme for district heating in The Hague. Next are minewater geothermal schemes, at Heerlen, Dannenbaum, Springhill, and Dawdon, the heat production well at Southampton in southern England, and example projects in the Paris Basin of central France (Issy-les-Moulineaux) and the Aquitaine Basin of SW France (Jonzac).
Results of this comparison are illustrated in
Figure 11. It is thus evident, first, that the potential thermal power output available at Wytch Farm is large in comparison with other successful projects, as might be expected from the scale of outputs that might be powered from this field, as already discussed. Except for environmental issues, to be considered below, this field would be a very strong candidate for geothermal repurposing. These issues indicate that careful thought will be necessary to design suitable geothermal end uses for this site, such considerations being beyond the scope of this study. Second, as calculated in
Table 8, geothermal repurposing of the Stockbridge and Welton oilfields might yield thermal power outputs of up to 638 and 251 kW. Calculated on the same basis, the remaining fields listed in
Table 3 would have outputs of 133 (Palmer’s Wood), 114 (Cold Hanworth), 94 (Storrington), 68 (Singleton), 59 (West Firsby), and 45 kW (Whisby). The above outputs in the ~0.1–1 MW range are comparable in terms of thermal power with mid-scale minewater geothermal projects such as Dannenbaum and Springhill. However, these latter projects are managed as components of integrated energy systems for seasonal heating and cooling, including summer storage of waste heat, rather than solely for heat supply (e.g., [
88,
90,
91,
92]). It is difficult to see how this type of energy management might be combined with oil co-production. As already discussed, the low reservoir temperatures in these fields impose significant restrictions on end uses of heat following potential repurposing for geothermal heat production. Finally, two projects, the operational Dawdon minewater heat project and the GGERFS, stand out on account of their low (actual, or potential) thermal power outputs. The GGERFS is a test site for minewater geothermal heat production [
94,
95] and is not currently used for heat production or storage (hence its inclusion here as a ‘potential’ site), but has been strongly criticized [
78] as some of its design features impose severe constraints on the potential heat output. Notable features are its shallow depth, <100 m, and resulting very low reservoir temperature, and its close spacing of candidate injection and production wells, <100 m to several hundred metres (e.g., [
96,
97]), which compare with horizontal scales of many hundreds of metres to kilometres and depths of hundreds of metres at other modern minewater geothermal projects such as Heerlen [
82] and Dannenbaum [
88]. From the point of view of achieving significant decarbonisation, the recent emphasis in the UK on these very small-scale projects [
93,
94,
95] (and, in the case of the GGERFS, commitment of significant funding, the budget being £9 million [
78]) seems unfortunate, when other much more promising geothermal heat sources are readily available.
5.3. Environmental Issues
Having addressed technical and economic aspects earlier, the final discussion point concerns environmental issues that bear on the feasibility of geothermal repurposing of the Wytch Farm and Wareham oilfield infrastructure. As
Figure 6 shows, the Wytch Farm field is located within the Dorset Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONB). An AONB is a form of protected landscape designation in the UK (excluding Scotland), created by parliament through the National Parks and Access to the Countryside Act 1949. The level of landscape protection provided in an AONB is the same as in a National Park; a key distinction is that a National Park authority makes planning decisions for its own designated area, whereas planning decisions within AONBs are made by the respective local authority, after consultation (for AONBs in England) with the government advisory agency Natural England. From 1974 to 31 March 2019, the authority responsible for local planning decisions (such as approval of the solar farms depicted in
Figure 6) was Purbeck District Council. Concurrently, the higher-tier Dorset County Council had responsibility for ‘strategic’ planning, hence its involvement in approving 39 concurrent planning applications in 2016 to permit continued operation of the Wytch Farm field [
57]. However, from 1 April 2019, a new Dorset unitary authority came into being, covering most of the historical area of Dorset and superseding the previous county and most of its districts, and is now responsible for both local and strategic planning decisions in the area.
The designation of the Dorset AONB reflects the geological, biological and historic heritage of the area. The Purbeck area (or ‘Isle of Purbeck’) straddles the southern margin of the Cenozoic Hampshire Basin. The landscape consists of low-lying heathland in the north, in areas of unlithified Eocene sands and clays, flanked to the south by the upland ‘Purbeck Ridge’ formed in an anticline where Cretaceous and Jurassic rocks are exposed. Its south coast forms the eastern part of the Dorset and East Devon Coast World Heritage Site, England’s only geological World Heritage Site [
98], popularly known as the ‘Jurassic Coast’ [
99]. The Upper Jurassic rocks exposed along this coastline not only create attractive scenery, they have also been of immense significance to the development of geoscience, having for example yielded fossil evidence that led to the earliest discoveries of dinosaurs [
100,
101]. In addition to these general designations, many smaller areas of land have separate status as nature reserves of various categories, some having high levels of statutory protection in their own right. Given its landscape and heritage, the Purbeck area is a major centre for tourism: Swanage is the principal resort; Studland and Corfe Castle, the two villages closest to the Wytch Farm gathering plant, are tourist ‘honeypots’.
The development of the Wytch Farm field took place after the Dorset AONB was created in 1959 and was carried out to high environmental standards reflecting the value of the landscape [
53] (
Figure 12). The planning guidelines for AONBs state that “particular regard should be paid to promoting sustainable forms of social and economic development that in themselves conserve and enhance the environment” [
58]. Providing geothermal heat is clearly a form of sustainable development, but whether any project receives planning permission will depend on whether it is deemed to achieve a favourable balance between the benefit of providing low-carbon heat and the downside of environmental impact. Regarding this balance, it is notable (
Figure 6) that solar photovoltaic farms (some covering >10 hectares of land) have been extensively developed on relatively unproductive farmland within the Eocene outcrop of the Hampshire Basin outside the Dorset AONB, yet none has been developed within the AONB itself. This AONB is thus effectively ‘encircled’ by solar farms, in a matter that resembles how, as a result of similar planning considerations, AONBs and National Parks in upland parts of Britain have become ‘fenced in’ by wind farms (e.g., [
102]). Trying to draw inferences for the future from past planning decisions in this area is potentially problematic, because of the recent creation of the new Dorset unitary local authority. Experience elsewhere, for example in the historic City of Durham in northeast England (another World Heritage Site [
103]), where the former local authority was merged into a new unitary authority in 2009, has resulted in a tendency for insensitive development plans (e.g., [
104]). The reason appears to be because planning decisions are henceforth taken by councillors who, being not local, are more likely to favour economic development over conservation. Nonetheless, it seems clear that a planning application for, say, a complex of geothermally heated greenhouses in the sensitive landscape adjoining the Wytch Farm gathering station (
Figure 12) would have little chance of success.
The Wareham well sites are located just outside the AONB (
Figure 6), so geothermal projects exploiting heat from the produced geofluid there would encounter fewer planning issues. However, as already noted, the potential end uses of the heat available at this site are severely limited, as a result of both the low temperature and the low production rate (see above). In principle, a solution to deal with the sensitivity of the area surrounding the Wytch Farm gathering plant might be to install a highly insulated pipe to transport hot water, in a ‘clean’ loop after a heat exchanger, to Wareham or another locality with potential heat demand. A solution analogous to this has been implemented for the Rittershoffen geothermal project in eastern France to provide industrial process heat for a biotechnology plant in Beinheim, ~15 km away (e.g., [
106,
107]). This ~€55 million project draws hot fluid above 160 °C from a depth of ~2600 m. The clean pipe loop, costing ~€15 million, provides a thermal power output of ~25 MW and a flow rate of ~70 L s
−1 with a temperature drop of only a few °C. The current water production rate at the Wytch Farm gathering plant is ~327,000 bpd (
Figure 7) or ~600 L s
−1, so any highly insulated ‘clean’ pipe loop leading from it would have to be wider than that at Rittershoffen, thus potentially costing more than the ~€0.5 million per kilometre typical there. This high overhead cost might well make this option unviable. Nonetheless, setting this issue aside, a potential end use for the heat from the Wytch Farm gathering plant, transported via a network of pipe loops, might be to provide heat for amenities (such as swimming pools; cf.
Table 7) in hotels in the nearby resort town of Swanage and neighbouring villages (
Figure 6).