Agent-Based Modeling of Sustainable Ecological Consumption for Grasslands: A Case Study of Inner Mongolia, China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- Develop a model to link human behavior to the ecosystem with an upscaling method, to effectively simulate the impacts of the herders’ livelihood behaviors and intentions on ecosystem pressure in Inner Mongolia;
- Explore the possibility of a win–win sustainable grassland management method to mitigate ecosystem pressure and improve the local herders’ livelihood.
2. Study Area and Data Sources
2.1. Introduction of the Study Area
2.2. Data
3. EcoC-G Model
3.1. Overview
3.1.1. Purpose
3.1.2. Entities, State Variables and Scales
3.1.3. Process Overview and Scheduling
3.2. Design Concepts
3.2.1. Theoretical and Empirical Background
3.2.2. Individual Decision-Making
3.2.3. Learning
3.2.4. Individual Sensing
3.2.5. Individual Prediction
3.2.6. Interaction
3.2.7. Collectives
3.2.8. Heterogeneity
3.2.9. Stochasticity
3.2.10. Observation
3.3. Details
3.3.1. Implementation Details
3.3.2. Initialization
3.3.3. Input Data
3.3.4. Sub-Models
- When the income of livestock production is less than the life consumption demand, the livestock production income cannot support the lives of herder families, and all of the livestock production income will be used for the living consumption.
- When the livestock production income is more than, or equal to, the living consumption demand, the livestock production income is able to support all of the lives of herder families. The whole living consumption of the herder families comes from livestock production; i.e., the consumption is equal to the demand. The living demand is set with a reference to the resident nutrient balanced standard dietary amount [50].
4. Scenarios and Simulation
5. Results and Analysis
5.1. Changing Trend of Ecosystem Consumption Pressure
5.2. Changes in Wealth Accumulated by the Herder Family
5.3. Changes of Herders’ Living Status under Four Scenarios
6. Discussion
6.1. The Promotion and Limitation of the EcoC-G Model
6.2. Exploring the Possibility of a Balanced Land Management Method on Grassland Ecosystem
6.3. The Validation of the EcoC-G Model
7. Conclusions
- (1)
- The EcoC-G model was properly developed by simplifying the factors and mechanisms of the social–ecological system to obtain a more direct and explicit relationship between grassland ecosystem supply and herders’ consumption. This model links the supply grassland ecosystem and social system with an index of ecosystem pressure. This index measures the balance status between grassland productivity and husbandry development demand by calculating the ecosystem’s NPP supply and the herder’s NPP consumption from livestock. The NPP consumption was changed with the herder’s livelihood strategies, while the livelihood strategies were determined by the age structure, occupation structure, and pasture of the herder’s family. Therefore, the mechanism of this model provides a new cross-scale way to scale the grassland use behaviors at the household scale to meet the ecosystem pressure at the regional scale.
- (2)
- In this model, the herder agents have the initial ability to observe natural and policy environments, and have the ability to perceive and learn about livelihood strategies from other agents. Therefore, the herder agents can adjust their livelihood behaviors to adapt to the ecological protection policy, while the indices of ecosystem pressure and herders’ living standards were simultaneously calculated to observe the effects of grassland use on the ecosystem and human well-being. Therefore, this model could be a practical tool to guide scientific decision-making for grazing management, to seek a win–win approach to ensure sustainable grassland use and to improve herders’ livelihood.
- (3)
- According to the simulation results of 4 scenarios, under the current grassland management mode, the pasture could never be overgrazed, and herders could achieve the basic living standard, but the accumulated wealth would be decreased due to the continual decline of the livestock amount. If no grazing control was imposed on herders, herders could accumulate wealth by increasing the breeding amount (approximately 5 times greater than the current mode) and reducing the marketing rate, but the ecosystem consumption pressure would reach a maximum of 2.3 times. With strict restrictions on the livestock number, the pressure on the ecosystem decreases; however, herders cannot achieve the basic living standards and accumulate wealth with limited livestock. Under the balance-oriented scenario, timely and gentle grassland management strategies (i.e., adjusting the breeding scale of livestock) were implemented, modest regulation led to rational ecological consumption intervals, the ecosystem pressure became stable, and herders could gradually accumulate wealth with the achievement of basic living standards in advance.
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Age | 0–10 | 11–20 | 21–30 | 31–40 | 41–50 | 51–60 | 61–70 | Over 70 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hulun Buir | 6% | 16% | 21% | 17% | 22% | 9% | 5% | 4% |
Population Per Family | Hulun Buir |
---|---|
1 | Livestock, male |
2 | 1 family: 1 old, 1 adult; 2 families: elderly couple over 60; 2 families: middle-aged couple engaged in farming |
3 | 17 families: 1couple + 1 child, couple engaged in breeding, 12 children in school, 2 children being migrant worker, 3 children in breeding; 2 families: 1 old + 2 children; 1 family with 1 couple + 1 old; at least two persons in breeding, 1 as migrant worker, in breeding or school for the latter three families |
4 | 19 families: 1 couple + 2 children, couples all engaged in breeding, 7 families with two students, 3 families with 1 student and 1 migrant worker, 4 families with 1 student and 1 child in breeding, 2 families with 2 young migrant workers, 1 family with 2 children in breeding, 2 families with 1 young migrant worker and 1 child in breeding; 1 family with 1 old + 1 young migrant worker+ 2 children in breeding; 2 families with 1 old + 1 couple + 1 child in school, the other three in breeding |
5 | 1 family: 1 old + 4 adults, in breeding; 1 family: 1 one couple + 1 adult couple + 1 child in school, the other four in breeding |
Hulun Buir | |
---|---|
R12 | In a family, 60% of students older than 18 go to university |
R13 | In a family, 20% of students older than 18 go to the urban areas as migrant workers |
R14 | In a family, 20% of students older than 18 transition to herders |
R23 | In a family, after university graduation, 30% become herders |
R24 | In a family, after university graduation, 40% become urban flexible workers |
R25 | In a family, after university graduation, 30% have urban fixed work |
R36 | Member older than 70, losing labor ability |
R46 | Migrant worker older than 65, losing labor ability |
R57 | Retired after 60 |
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Category | Variables | Explanation |
---|---|---|
Family structure | amountofFamilyM | the number of family members in each household |
individualAgent array | the array of family members | |
children | the number of children in the family | |
elder | the number of elders in the family | |
parent | the role of parent in one family | |
herders | the number of herders in the family | |
outworkers | the number of workers out of the hometown in the family | |
Livestock breeding | sheepofCurrentYear | the number of sheep that the family is raising in the current year |
sheepofCurrentYearmiddler | the number of sheep that the family is raising in the middle of the current year | |
sheepofLastYear | the number of sheep that the family raised in the last year | |
sheepofLastYearmiddle | the number of sheep that the family raised in the middle of last year | |
NPPsheepofCurrentYear (gC/(m2·a)) | the NPP (net primary productivity) consumed by sheep herding in the family in the current year | |
NPPsheepofLastYear (gC/(m2·a)) | the NPP consumed by sheep the family herding in the last year | |
Household income | cashofCurrentYear (Chinese Yuan (CNY)) | wage earnings by the outworkers in the family in the current year |
earnedofCurrentYear (CNY) | the sum of all of the earnings (off-farm income and herding income) in the family in the current year | |
cashofLastYear (CNY) | wage earnings by the outworkers in the family in the last year | |
earnedofLastYear (CNY) | the sum of all of the earnings (off-farm income and herding income) in the family in the last year | |
Owned grassland | amountofLand | the number of grassland plots that each household had |
familyLand array | the array of farmland plots planted by each household, stored information of each plot | |
NPPproduceofCurrentYear (gC/(m2·a)) | the NPP produced by the family in the current year | |
NPPpeopleofCurrentYear (gC/(m2·a)) | the NPP consumed by the family members in the current year | |
NPPproduceofLastYear (gC/(m2·a)) | the NPP produced by the family in the last year | |
NPPpeopleofLastYear (gC/(m2·a)) | the NPP consumed by the family members in the last year | |
NPPEofCurrentYear (gC/(m2·a)) | the real NPP pressure index in the current year |
Parameter | Initial Value | Source |
---|---|---|
The average population of households | 3.2 | Field survey and statistic yearbook of Inner Mongolia |
Amount of family member (percent, number) | 4%, 1 | Statistic yearbook of Inner Mongolia |
10%, 2 | ||
40%, 3 | ||
42%, 4 | ||
4%, 5 | ||
Educating of individual (represent number, education level) | 1, highest with primary education 2, middle school 3, high school 4, university and upper | Statistic yearbook of Inner Mongolia |
Age of individual | 0–100 (maximum age randomly distributed in 60–100) | |
Pasture area per capita (hm2) | 24 | Field survey and statistic yearbook of Inner Mongolia |
Ecological compensation (¥(CNY)/hm2) | 45 | Field survey |
Number of sheep per sheep-breeding family | 101 | Statistic yearbook of Inner Mongolia |
Number of cattle per cattle-breeding family | 22 | Statistic yearbook of Inner Mongolia |
The upper limit for breeding ((number of sheep)/person) | 500 | Field survey |
Income of flexible working per family (¥(CNY)) | 15,000 | Field survey and statistic yearbook of Inner Mongolia |
Income of breeding per family (¥(CNY)) | 43,000 | Field survey and statistic yearbook of Inner Mongolia |
Food consumption amount per capita (¥(CNY)) | 2654 | Field survey and statistic yearbook of Inner Mongolia |
The ratio of livestock number in the middle to that at the end of the year | 0.62 | Statistic yearbook of Inner Mongolia |
Parameters | Conditions | Value or Intervals of Parameters |
---|---|---|
μi | <0.7μ0 | |
<0.8μ0 | ||
kp | No ecological compensation | kp = 0 |
Parameters | Conditions | Value or Intervals of Parameters | |
---|---|---|---|
μi | ≤0.7μ0 | ||
≥1.4μ0 | |||
≥1.5μ0 | |||
≥1.6μ0 | |||
kp | With ecological compensation | kp ranges between [0,0.1] |
Parameters | Conditions | Value or Intervals of Parameters | |
---|---|---|---|
μi | ≤0.7μ0 | ||
≥0.8μ0 | |||
≥1.2μ0 | |||
≥1.6μ0 | |||
kp | With ecological compensation | kp ranges between [0,0.1] |
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Yan, H.; Pan, L.; Xue, Z.; Zhen, L.; Bai, X.; Hu, Y.; Huang, H.-Q. Agent-Based Modeling of Sustainable Ecological Consumption for Grasslands: A Case Study of Inner Mongolia, China. Sustainability 2019, 11, 2261. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11082261
Yan H, Pan L, Xue Z, Zhen L, Bai X, Hu Y, Huang H-Q. Agent-Based Modeling of Sustainable Ecological Consumption for Grasslands: A Case Study of Inner Mongolia, China. Sustainability. 2019; 11(8):2261. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11082261
Chicago/Turabian StyleYan, Huimin, Lihu Pan, Zhichao Xue, Lin Zhen, Xuehong Bai, Yunfeng Hu, and He-Qing Huang. 2019. "Agent-Based Modeling of Sustainable Ecological Consumption for Grasslands: A Case Study of Inner Mongolia, China" Sustainability 11, no. 8: 2261. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11082261
APA StyleYan, H., Pan, L., Xue, Z., Zhen, L., Bai, X., Hu, Y., & Huang, H. -Q. (2019). Agent-Based Modeling of Sustainable Ecological Consumption for Grasslands: A Case Study of Inner Mongolia, China. Sustainability, 11(8), 2261. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11082261