Roadmap for Future Mobility Development Supporting Bangkok Urban Living in 2030

Abstract

This study demonstrates how to develop a roadmap guiding a company’s technology and innovation for future mobility by integrating the results from foresight and scenario analysis. The key drivers and trends influencing the urban development of Bangkok in the next 10 years were determined through the environmental scanning approach. The participatory approach was then applied to get stakeholders involved to enrich scenario thinking. The participants were invited from many social networks involved in city development in Bangkok. The scenario development was framed according to livability and city infrastructure development. As mobility is always the key issue for big cities, future development for mobility can be addressed in terms of different aspects such as filling stations, clean fuel, public transportation, shared mobility platforms, or last-mile traveling. A roadmap to guide future development of shared mobility was developed based on the analysis of the particular company in the case study.

1. Introduction

In the age of disruption, changes in society, the economy, law, energy, environment, infrastructure, and technology are swift and unpredictable. In preparing to cope with changes, foresight and scenario development are important tools to understand future trends and build scenarios to illustrate the possibilities. Urbanization has been a global trend in the past decade and has led to new challenges for city development. According to the recent world urbanization report [1], 55% of the world population lives in urban areas, compared to only 30% in 1950. This number is expected to rise to 68% by 2050. This projected number of urban residents is based on the continuity of the urbanization trend and the growth of the world population. Most of the growth is forecasted to be in Asian and African cities. With this growing number of residents, increased demand for various urban resources and the need for proper facility development are inevitable.

To cope with future urban challenges, cities need to create a plan to guide future development. City planners usually face two scenarios: building from scratch or improving on the existing area, with the latter occurring most often. Urban planning also covers many aspects of the city, such as infrastructure, land use, economic development, neighborhoods, and housing. Recently, several researchers have worked on finding new ways to support the future development of cities by addressing issues like mobility, the sharing economy, food sustainability, and active community engagement. To face the future, cities first need to specify the development goal. To set a goal, planners need to study the existing system and obtain the requirements from city stakeholders such as residents and government officials. With agreeable goals, a strategy for development can be defined.

The Bangkok Foresight 2030 project was initiated for two reasons. The first was to exchange ideas and increase social awareness by exploring the possible future of Bangkok in the next 10 years. The second was to provide input to business executives and managers based on the results of foresight and scenario analysis to plan their technological adaptation and future innovation by incorporating such plans into their corporate roadmap.

This paper is organized into six sections. After the introduction in Section 1, Section 2 reviews the latest literature on urban development as well as the applications of foresight, scenario analysis, and roadmapping. Section 3 addresses the methodology and approach used in this study. Section 4 presents the analysis results, ranging from environmental scanning to scenario development; four scenarios are described, along with their illustrations. Section 5 explains how business executives and managers can use the results to develop their corporate roadmap. Finally, Section 6 addresses the conclusion and areas for future development.

2. Literature Review

2.1. Smart Cities: The Forthcoming Trend for Cities

Realizing the coming trend of urbanization, various cities are adopting the smart city concept to tackle challenges and plan for the future. Smart cities can facilitate other urban development goals, such as reducing greenhouse gases and energy consumption or increasing sustainability [2]. The future development of cities is targeted to increase their economic competitiveness and enhance residents’ quality of life [3]. For example, Amsterdam and Rotterdam aim to cut down their carbon emissions up to 50% by 2025 [4]. They are planning to increase the share of electric vehicles and bicycles significantly by providing proper mobility infrastructure such as charging stations and cycling lanes. Barcelona has adopted new technologies and fostered collaboration between city stakeholders to transform the city by focusing on the number of jobs, social housing, larger green areas, and better public services [5]. Although these cities are achieving a positive effect using the smart city concept, they seem to define the concept differently.

Academia, governments, and industry have proposed more than a hundred definitions of a “smart city” [6]. Apart from the number of definitions, the concept has been applied to two distinct domains: hard and soft [7]. The hard domain refers to buildings, energy grids, and logistics, whereas the soft domain refers to education, culture, and policy interventions. According to a bibliometric analysis of the smart city literature from 1992 to 2012, Mora et al. highlighted that the overlap between the proposed definitions hinders scholars from achieving a consensus about the concept [8]. From an analysis of more than 100 definitions, Kondepudi defined the smart city concept as follows: “A smart sustainable city (SSC) is an innovative city that uses information and communication technologies (ICTs) and other means to improve quality of life, efficiency of urban operation and services, and competitiveness, while ensuring that it meets the needs of present and future generations with respect to economic, social and environmental aspects” [6]. The emergence of new technologies such as cloud computing, big data, and the Internet of Things has provided a foundation for smart cities, because they provide a connection between elements in the city and create a large data set for the city [9]. Lee et al. have suggested that the concept of smart cities could solve existing urban issues such as the unavailability of public service, traffic problems, and environmental pollution [3]. Moreover, information and communication generated through smart cities could also change residents’ behavior [10]. For example, with sensors on buses, arrival times could become more predictable, so passengers may find commuting on public transport more attractive. Apart from providing quality services, smart cities also contribute to urban development. Anthopoulos and Vakali proposed the alignment of the smart city concept and urban development [11], whereas Albino et al. emphasized that the concept should focus on people’s and community needs [7]. A smart city is similar, as a concept, to the digital and intelligent city concepts, which involve the adoption of ICT to deal with urban issues [12]. A digital city merges urban data and constructs a virtual space as a platform for communities to exchange ideas [13]. The digital city only focuses on the technological side, whereas smart cities extend the concept to include human and governance perspectives. An intelligent city is also equipped with physical and ICT infrastructure [14]. Yin et al. indicated that the terms “intelligent” and “smart” city have usually been used interchangeably in the literature [9]. However, the latter seems to be a more popular concept because the word “smart” is more user friendly and less political [12].

2.2. Key Elements for City Development

Giffinger et al. identified the commonality among definitions and proposed key elements cities must take into account for the development of a smart city [15]; these include smart mobility, a smart economy, smart living, smart governance, smart people, and a smart environment. Each characteristic is described by a different set of factors, depending on the context and the development stages. For example, the brownfield smart city project is likely to focus on optimizing the current infrastructure rather than building from scratch. The characteristics and their corresponding factors are summarized as follows.

First, a smart economy focuses on enhancing the economic competitiveness by factors such as productivity, entrepreneurship, or innovation. Second, the concept of ‘smart people’ tackles both the individual and social interaction aspects of the citizens. The former includes the level of education and learning skills, whereas the latter deals with flexibility, social and ethnic plurality, and open-mindedness. Third, citizens’ life quality is addressed in smart living from different perspectives such as healthcare and housing conditions. Fourth, smart governance aims to promote citizen participation in politics and transparent administration. Fifth, smart mobility includes both transportation for the area’s physical connection and ICT for digital connections. Finally, the smart environment deals with the natural resources and how to handle them sustainably.

Infrastructure is another important element of the smart city. As a foundation of the city, the infrastructure has a direct influence on achieving the smart city goal. The UNCTAD Secretariat categorized smart infrastructure into two groups: physical and digital [16]. Physical infrastructure consists of six sub-elements: buildings, mobility and transport, energy, water management, waste management, and healthcare. All these sub-elements are crucial systems necessary for living. Digital infrastructure refers to the data platform facilitating the accumulation of data. These data may then be analyzed and used by related parties such as city stakeholders to improve citizens’ quality of life or to further support the integration of physical infrastructure via the information-sharing platform.

2.3. Challenges and Difficulties in Smart City Development

The development and implementation of a smart city always face various challenges, including technological aspects, infrastructure, legislation, and funding and stakeholders’ expectation. Without accurately and comprehensively addressing those challenges, the development would run into problems. For example, an inadequate approach to managing various types of new mobility services would lead to safety issues for users [17,18]. Improper health measures for shared mobility would lead to health concerns during the COVID-19 pandemic [19]. In addition, insecure data-sharing systems would lead to privacy and security issues for shared mobility and Mobility as a Service (MaaS) [20].

Financial and citizen-related issues are common challenges in the implementation of smart city projects, which usually require a significant level of investment to build or improve city infrastructure. For example, China and India have allocated several billion USD to transition to smart cities [21]. Given the huge investment required, a local municipality alone cannot fund a smart city project, so they need to find other sources of funding. For example, a crowdfunding platform was a success in Estonia to build the PARKI science and industrial parks for promoting green technology [16]. This project not only makes money, but the citizens are also more “invested” in the project as they are participating in and contributing to transforming their city.

The stakeholders involved in city development consist of four sectors: governmental and public, university academics and research and innovation, IT and the private sector, and civil society [22]. Each sector has different functions and needs, so collaboration is key to achieving project success. For example, university academics and their research teams can come up with a sophisticated smart city solution, but they may not be able to satisfy the needs of citizens, and their plans may incur a cost too high for the city to afford. Each city also poses different challenges, as they have different starting conditions, available resources, and citizen willingness [23]. The solution in a city thus cannot be immediately adopted in other cities: There are no one-size-fits-all solutions. However, we could still learn from the challenges faced by other smart city projects and how they deal with those challenges. Apart from participation, lack of citizen skills can be a hurdle to smart city projects. Curriculum reform or an online platform such as massive open online courses (MOOCs) may be a potential solution. Should both financial and citizen skill issues be sorted out, the smart city project can be initiated properly.

2.4. Foresight

Technology foresight has been introduced and widely practiced to help organizations address their long-term planning. The term “technology foresight” emerged from technology forecasting, with the main purpose of visualizing the future [24,25,26]. Technology foresight was first introduced to describe the techniques, mechanisms, and procedures for strategically identifying the potential areas of basic research [27,28]. Technology foresight was applied as a process to understand the forces shaping the long-term future using qualitative and quantitative means for policy formulation, planning, and decision-making [29]. Coates concluded that foresight prepares us to meet the needs and opportunities of the future [30].

Technology foresight involves systematic attempts to look into the longer-term future of science, technology, economics, the environment, and society with a view toward identifying emerging technologies to yield the greatest economic and social benefits [31]. The objective of technology foresight is usually dependent on the individual group of practitioners, such as the government and corporations at both the national and regional levels. However, the most common objectives of technology foresight exercises are to set priorities in science and technology development. The decision results can then be revealed through the allocation of resources, including research funding, scientific instrumentation, and future requirements for trained researchers.

2.5. Recent Foresight Studies on Future Cities

In 2013, the UK Government Office for Science conducted a foresight study to articulate the long-term views on how people will live, work, and interact in more than 20 UK cities in 2065 [32]. The study collected evidence from working papers and essays, as well as running future workshops and visiting, supporting, and working with cities of various types and sizes across the country. The results offer insights for policymakers at the national level, as well as to local government officials and partners, for understanding the future of cities and in what direction research could most usefully be focused in the future.

In 2014, Shell Corporation released the scenario study “New Lens on Future Cities”, which aimed to clarify the differences in how cities are built and operated to make the right choices for building sustainable cities [4]. Shell’s study projected that urban populations are growing and around three out of every four of people on earth will live in cities by 2050. As cities expand, pressure on vital resources such as energy, water, and food increases. According to Shell’s scenarios, cities can be grouped into six categories or archetypes. Each category was analyzed to create scenarios for how individual cities could evolve and become more efficient.

Tewdwr-Jones and Goddard applied foresight to long-term urban planning to address the future opportunities and threats for land use [33]. They also showed that foresight activities can encourage partnership and potentially lead to collaboration among government, universities, the private sector, and citizen stakeholders. Fabbri applied foresight to strategic planning processes to accelerate the development of regional innovation in Tuscany [34]. Similarly, foresight was also applied to understand potential sustainable urban futures for China in 2050 [35]. Recently, there was also a foresight study on the urban mobility of Singapore in 2040, conducted by Zahraei et al. [36]. Two scenarios were presented, called the Shared World and the Virtual World. Transport modes for passengers and freight were highlighted in each scenario, along with possible implications to the individual, society, industry, and government levels. Although there have been several foresight studies related to the future city, Güell and López still raised concerns about the appropriateness of the foresight tools used in cities and the competency of foresight practitioners in understanding the complex and dynamic nature of contemporary cities [37].

2.6. Roadmapping and Extended Applications

Roadmapping is the process for linking a business strategy with a technology strategy. A set of alternatives for meeting certain objectives can be identified along with critical requirements for a set of needs [38]. Roadmaps can address different aspects of a planning problem and subsequently provide a consensus view or vision of the future landscape available to decision-makers [39,40]. The graphical nature of a roadmap visually portrays links and relationships between capabilities and requirements [41,42]. The roadmap document presents a potential future by focusing on specific knowledge from a chosen field [43], and the ability to display and connect time-based knowledge is what makes technology roadmapping (TRM) a powerful method to support strategic planning [44].

Several scholars are continuing to work on developing additional tools to customize and operationalize the roadmapping process. For example, Kostoff et al. proposed a systematic approach to identify disruptive technologies by taking advantage of text-mining [39,45]. Passey et al. studied integration product concept visioning and scenario building with roadmaps [46], and Lizaro and Reger proposed connecting roadmapping and scenarios to plan the coordinated development and deployment of new and existing technologies and applications [47]. Satangput et al. integrated scenario development into roadmapping to help the APEC community identify development areas for future technologies to combat emerging infectious diseases [48]. Lee et al. utilized patent information for new product development by developing a keyword-based TRM approach [49]. Yasunaga et al. studied the utilization of TRM with the structuring of knowledge in R&D management [50]. Gerdsri and Kocaoglu proposed the technique called technology development envelope (TDE), which uses a Delphi survey to identify trends in emerging technologies, and the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to sequentially evaluate the impact of emerging technologies on a company’s objectives over time [51]. Yoon et al. applied morphology analysis to derive promising opportunities for the development of new products or technology by matching their morphology [52]. Chutiwongse and Gerdsri applied roadmapping to help managers guide their organizational development activities and organizational innovation [53]. Gerdsri and Manotungvorapun emphasized the need for assessment and roadmapping to support the development of effective university–industry collaboration (UIC) [54].

3. Methodology, Approach, Engagement, and Workshop Activities

To develop a roadmap guiding technology and innovation development for future urban living in Bangkok, the approach used in this study was designed by integrating three methodologies: foresight, scenario analysis, and roadmapping, as shown in Figure 1 below.

3.1. Methodology

3.1.1. Foresight

Foresight was applied to determine the future trend of key drivers following the environmental scanning approach. This was carried out based on the assumption that an uncertain future is shaped by today’s actions. Key experts from different areas influencing the future development of Bangkok were invited to share data and their views.

3.1.2. Scenario Analysis

The scenario analysis was implemented to create a portrait of the future possibilities. Livability and city infrastructure development were the two key dimensions to frame four different scenarios, as shown in Figure 2. Livability represents a community’s quality of life, including economic prosperity; social stability and equity; educational opportunities; public health, safety, and food/water access; and culture, entertainment, and recreation possibilities. City infrastructure development means buildings, developments, or improvements to the transportation or telecommunication systems, as well as land and resource use. The description of each scenario is provided below.

Scenario 1: Growth and Sustainability (i.e., a high level of infrastructure development and a high level of livability). This scenario represents the balanced development of infrastructure and livability, which leads to growth and sustainable development of the city.

Scenario 2: Struggling (i.e., low level of infrastructure development and an increasing or high level of livability). This scenario focuses on the rise of economic development in the city while the development of infrastructure such as utilities and transportation systems still lags behind or is improperly planned.

Scenario 3: Frustrating (i.e., low level of infrastructure development and low level of livability). This scenario represents the situation where the economy is under-developed, causing many problems in basic healthcare services and food access, among others. Infrastructure development is also insufficient.

Scenario 4: Unbalancing (i.e., high level of infrastructure development and decreasing or low level of livability). This scenario represents unbalanced development, which can be explained by two phenomena: One is the shrinking of cities or urban depopulation resulting from economic turmoil or political crisis, and the other is the condition in which advanced development happens only in certain areas, so only a limited number of people can benefit from it. This creates a social divide.

In this study, the scenarios were developed by combining both normative and exploratory approaches with a mix of subject experts and wider participants, similar to the mix-methods approach introduced by Star et al. [55].

3.1.3. Roadmapping

Based on the developed scenarios, business executives and managers can analyze the impacts on their business, as well as identify emerging opportunities before developing a strategic plan and roadmap to guide their technological adaptation and future innovation. This strategic plan is often presented as a company roadmap. In constantly changing situations, it is always difficult to specify which scenarios are most likely to occur. Often, executives decide to wait and see before taking action, but this approach is passive and risky. In this study, we tackle these challenges by taking an adaptive approach. The key consideration is to identify what should be done no matter which scenario takes place (i.e., identifying common issues required regardless of which scenario appears), and then setting these actions as part of a short-term plan in the roadmap. Figure 3 shows these actions; preparations should be made for A-IIIa and A-IIIb regardless of whether it is sunny, cloudy, or rainy, and A-III should be set as the short-term target for development on the roadmap.

3.2. Step-by-Step Approach

To achieve the objective of this study, the analysis approach was divided into eight steps, as shown in Figure 4 below. Steps 1 and 2 are the project preparation, in which the core project team worked together to review the key literature using foresight/scenario analysis/roadmapping as a part of the methodology, as well as the studies related to future urban living. The core team also set up a framework to identify key factors according to their impacts on the development of cities over the past 10 years as well as their potential impacts on shaping the future development of cities [4]. The core team also specified the required data type and sources, and identified potential experts to be invited to share their insights during the environmental scanning session. Step 3 was set for environmental scanning to comprehend the key trends influencing the future development of urban living in Bangkok. At this stage, the process was referred to as “Foresight”. Step 4 was the scenario analysis and development. Steps 5–8 were the plans to work with business executives and managers to analyze the impact on a business, explore new opportunities, consider alternatives for technological adaptation and innovation, and develop a company roadmap. The processes for these steps are business impact analysis, strategy development, and roadmapping.

3.3. Engagement

The participatory approach was applied to get stakeholders involved in scenario thinking. The group of participants were invited from many social networks where they were considered opinion leaders. Altogether, there were around 60 people in the age range between 25 and 40 from diverse professional and education backgrounds. Those participants also represented both the public and private sectors. We considered this group to be made up of active citizens. Participants were then arranged in four groups to develop scenarios articulating their future thinking. This process was referred to as scenario analysis and development.

3.4. Workshop Activities

The foresight workshop was organized over the course of two full days. The first day was designed for environmental scanning. The comprehensive summary was provided to the participants by experts in different areas, such as:

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The Minister of Transportation shared the development plan for the mass transit systems in Bangkok;

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The top management of Toyota Corp. (Toyota, Japan) and LINE Corp. (Tokyo, Japan) shared the outlook for communication and mobility technologies (note: LINE Corp. is a Tokyo-based company focusing on the development of mobile applications and Internet services, particularly short message communication and entertainment);

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A university professor expert in urban planning shared their research on demographic data, living and lifestyle, land use and zoning, impacts of rising sea level and environmental issues;

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The lead economist from the Ministry of Finance shared the economic outlook of Bangkok and major cities in the region; and

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A lawyer from a leading international law firm in Bangkok shared their thoughts about the future direction of legal development in Thailand, as well as a comparative study with other countries.

On the morning of the second day, the participants were organized into groups to articulate scenario thinking using the information from the environmental scanning provided the previous day. Key issues for each scenario were identified. In the afternoon, each group worked on scenario development, including storylines and graphic illustrations. At the end of the day, each group shared their scenario and then the group opened up for wide-ranging discussion. After the workshops, the results were also shared with the public. Business executives and managers can use the results from the environmental scanning to analyze the impacts on their business as well as to identify emerging opportunities before developing a strategic plan by following Steps 5–8, as described in Figure 5. For the particular company referred to in this study, a working group of business executives and managers was formed to analyze the impacts of each scenario on the company’s business and identify the potential for new business opportunities. The internal process of going through Steps 5–8 took around three months.

4. Results Analysis

In this section, the analysis results are presented according to the proposed approach, linking foresight to scenario analysis and roadmap development. The key findings are also highlighted in each approach.

4.1. Foresight: Environmental Scanning

The details about the key drivers and trends influencing the future development of Bangkok, which were extensively discussed during the workshop, are summarized below.

4.1.1. Infrastructure Development: Bangkok Mass Transit Systems

Thailand aims to employ a railway system including high-speed trains as the main mode of transportation and connecting to all neighboring countries. The urban train lines will be extended to increase coverage to more than 400 km. High-speed rail systems are also under construction to connect Bangkok to different regions and neighboring countries [56].

4.1.2. Technology and Online Society Development

At present, internet usage among people in Thailand is in the world’s top rank, where people spend on average of 216 min per day on smart devices, with about one-third using LINE applications. A LINE executive mentioned that the company aims to provide well-connected, fast transactions and tailored services for convenience. Moreover, he also sees the need to transform content into having “everything videologized”, because he found that people in Thailand now spend, on average, 40 min on YouTube each day.

4.1.3. Economic Development

Although the current economic growth and unemployment rate are healthy, there is still room for improvement, as there is imbalance in the four important economic drivers: private consumption, public consumption, investment, and export. The concentration of wealth is also increasing. To tackle these issues, the government should prioritize economic development of rural areas to decrease the migration of workers toward big cities. Concurrently, they should also monitor global mega-trends such as cryptocurrency, blockchain, the sharing economy, and green economy to explore potential opportunities. Finally, it is necessary for both the public and private sectors to cooperate to drive the country forward.

4.1.4. Urban Development

Another important factor is quality of life. Due to urbanization, the sense of ownership among urban citizens starts to decline. The urban planning expert stressed that the government should pay more attention to the design of public spaces to serve citizens. He suggested that, in the future, citizens will spend more time in public spaces than in their house (or “small room”).

4.1.5. Environment and Energy Planning

Bangkok is facing similar challenges to those of other metropolises, such as the rising number of residents, increased traffic jams, uncertain public safety, and information privacy. These alter the city’s energy consumption pattern. Decarbonization is a new trend to tackle urban pollution, and decentralized energy generation is also becoming more popular.

4.1.6. Food

Due to the developed logistics system, people can easily access food delivery services, but the increasing cost of transportation affects the cost of food services. To deal with this issue, new technologies should be considered to optimize food distribution. The application of smart farming can also decrease the cost of production, as it needs fewer resources to produce. Another challenge is to produce enough food for the world population, because the population continues to grow. Protein from insects is a promising new alternative, as it requires fewer production resources compared to meat. As Thailand is well known as a food producer, there are vast opportunities to position Bangkok as a food hub, especially for street food. If the local community can find a way to enhance standards and quality, it would be a unique factor to attract more tourists.

4.1.7. Law

Due to globalization and future challenges, the current law must be amended. The amendment should not only incorporate infrastructure and economic development but also citizens’ quality of life. Recently in Thailand, there have been various legal amendment attempts, such as bills related to civil partnership, the elderly fund, and sale with the right to redemption. Another possibility is to amend the existing law or create new measures to suit future innovation. Those measures or laws include the electronic transaction rule, the information privacy bill, the start-up policy, and the digital industry. However, there are gaps for legal improvement to deal with emerging issues such as who is responsible for the issues related to artificial intelligence, and new laws should also facilitate new types of business such as Airbnb or Uber.

4.2. Scenario Analysis

Four different scenarios were developed according to the two key dimensions—livability and city infrastructure development—as shown in Figure 2. The workshop participants were arranged into four groups. Each group was responsible for the development of one scenario using the key information and trends provided by the experts during the environmental scanning session, including information about the future infrastructure development plan, projected population growth, future technologies, economic development, and food and healthcare access. The description and illustration of each scenario are presented below.

4.2.1. Scenario 1: Growth and Sustainability

Public transportation infrastructure was sufficiently developed to be smart and reliable. It can provide optimized routes and seamlessly shared mobility for people with different lifeways. There are limited parking spaces with a high parking fee for personal cars. Old cars are restricted from the road, and the sense of car ownership has declined; eco-friendly cars are more popular. Due to the smaller number of cars, the average travel time has decreased and the road safety level is higher.

Along with the modern power system, a smart grid is used to manage the whole system to optimize loads. The government supports renewable energy and a free-trade market scheme. Time of use for electricity price rates is employed to realistically reflect the true cost of generation. System stability is enhanced by the energy storage system. In addition, organizations focus on energy management to consume energy effectively.

Not every area in Bangkok is urbanized. Some areas still preserve their identity to attract tourists who prefer the traditional and authentic atmosphere. Pollution measures were implemented, and citizens’ environmental awareness was enhanced. Moreover, the PM 2.5 issues were tackled sustainably. The government successfully implemented various policies such as the car restriction policy (increasing annual tax, old cars banned from the inner city center), supporting eco-friendly cars, waste sorting, limiting the amount of waste, recycling water in the canal, and reforming the promenade as a public space.

All citizens can afford the smart healthcare system, which is well-adapted to the aging society. Advanced food-processing technology is used to create nutrient-rich sustenance. Street-food services still remain in Bangkok. Various types of fusion food are introduced, along with new technologies to manage food supply chain and logistics. The description of Scenario 1 can be visualized in Figure 5.

Figure 5. Illustration of Scenario 1: Growth and Sustainability.

Figure 5. Illustration of Scenario 1: Growth and Sustainability.

4.2.2. Scenario 2: Struggling

Although the public transport infrastructure lacks complete connectivity and stability, the system is still affordable to the majority of citizens. This explains why some citizens choose to travel by public transportation and shared mobility, while others keep using their personal cars for convenience. Traffic and road safety remain issues for the city. Renewable energy is employed to a certain extent, but the power system is still not stable enough. Extra electrical generation is needed during certain periods. Because the energy policy is not clear, each electric producer individually generates electricity without cooperation, so the price does not truly reflect the optimal cost of generation, although it is still affordable for the citizens. System stability would be enhanced by the energy storage system. Many organizations focus on energy management to effectively consume energy.

The tourism sector attracts many foreign tourists to Thailand and especially to Bangkok as the transit gateway. Because the transport infrastructure is ill-prepared, tourists cannot rely on public transportation, so they are arranged in small groups or free individual travelers (FIT) to visit the city. Bangkok residents tend to lend their place via Airbnb. Places close to the metro line are more attractive. Due to the need to communicate with foreign people, the people of Thailand need to improve their English skills.

The pollution control measures are not good enough, so the city struggles with PM 2.5 issues. Without proper car regulation, the number of cars is growing. Moreover, the amount of waste is growing. Even with these issues, Bangkok is still attractive enough to foreign tourists, because they can still enjoy the lack of strict rules and street food. There are no environmental measures to handle the current pollution issue. Due to the rising number of tourists, a variety of food is served on the streets. This causes a shift in consumption behavior related to street food. People cannot control their mealtimes because they cannot be sure of their travel time. In 2030, there are limited healthcare choices for citizens, as the system cannot cover the need for all people. Although the price is still affordable, the number of hospitals and staff is not sufficient to serve the growing population. The description of Scenario 1 can be visualized in Figure 6.

4.2.3. Scenario 3: Frustrating

As the public transport infrastructure lacks complete connectivity and stability, commuters have to pay fares separately for using each system. Total fares are thus too high for the average income. Low-income citizens still need to use public transport because there are no choices. Shared mobility is only affordable to the middle-income range. Although traffic conditions are terrible, personal cars are still an attractive alternative. As the air quality is getting worse, catastrophic warnings to shut schools and work are often used, which greatly affects the economic situation. In addition, due to the congested road conditions and bad-quality cars, road safety has declined, which decreases still further the modal share of active transport modes such as bicycles and scooters. The power system is not stable, so extra electricity generated by private businesses and individuals is needed. However, the demand still cannot be met, as it exceeds generation capacity. Only a few people have started to adopt renewable energy, as there was a lack of government support. Electricity bills are too high, so citizens need to limit their energy consumption. Energy storage and energy management are very rare and only adopted by high-income citizens.

The city center has become a financial district in the daytime and a slum at night. There are many poor and homeless people living on the street. Public transport only operates during the daytime. Some public space has become an exclusive area in which a small group of people share space.

Although the PM 2.5 issue has deteriorated, the government still cannot deal with it. The number of cars is skyrocketing, as there is no ban on old cars. Few people use eco-friendly cars, as the government does not offer any incentive or support. There is no designated area used for waste sorting and dump sites. Waste burning also contributes to the PM 2.5 issue. The community living near rivers continues to dump their waste into the water.

Good-quality food is not affordable for the majority. Some citizens suffer from NCDs (noncommunicable diseases) such as diabetes and hypertension, as the population tends to consume high-sugar foods and drinks. This is in line with the world trend that foods are becoming richer in fat, sugar, salt, and seasoning. Healthcare systems are underdeveloped. There are limited healthcare choices available, and the number of hospitals and available staff is not enough to serve the growing population; the price of medical care is also too high. The description of Scenario 1 can be visualized in Figure 7.

4.2.4. Scenario 4: Unbalancing

Bangkok lacks well-considered urban planning. The public transportation infrastructure is smart and reliable, but is only available in business-center areas without considering the metro system for the overall city, so only a limited number of people can benefit. This generates denser construction around the metro line, causing property values to increase. Middle-income citizens have to live in the suburban areas, while only the rich, foreigners, and tourists live in the city center.

Citizens have to rely on traditional modes of transportation such as buses and minibuses. Personal cars are still popular among high-income people, and eco-friendly automobiles are widely considered among this group of people to be a luxury. Smart grids are used to manage the whole power system to optimize loads. The government supports renewable energy; however, only high-income people benefit. The free-trade market for energy is employed, and there is no more energy-cost subsidy. The electricity price is charged to reflect the true cost, and the rates are also varied at different times of day. The energy storage system is mainly used for price arbitrage to make a profit.

Middle-income people do not have enough money to afford their own housing, so they become renters. People are aware of environmental problems. The government has implemented a car restriction policy (i.e., rising annual tax, banning old cars from the inner city center) and a taxation policy on recycling water. The cost of living in the city is increasing to the point that middle-income citizens move out to the suburbs and low-income people face difficulty in accessing nutritious foods. Organic products are only affordable by the rich. In 2030, the public healthcare system continues to develop, and the quality is widely acceptable at international standards. However, it cannot serve the whole Bangkok area, as hospitals are concentrated in a certain area and medical costs are quite high for most citizens. The description of Scenario 1 can be visualized in Figure 8.

4.3. Roadmap Development

For the particular company in this study, a group of business executives and managers applied the results from the foresight and scenario analysis to plan their technological adaptation and future innovation. The group of executives had interests in the future development of mobility, energy use, and the environment. The opportunities and constraints for future development in those three areas were therefore explored and compared across the four scenarios.

Table 1. Opportunity analysis on future mobility across the four scenarios.

Future Mobility
Scenario 1: Growth and Sustainability	⮚ The public transport infrastructure is smart and reliable. It provides a variety of optimized routes and seamlessly shared mobility suitable for every group of citizens. ⮚ There are limited parking spaces and with high parking fees. Old cars are banned from the road. The number of drivers and sense of ownership are thus declining. This also decreases air pollution and the number of road accidents. ⮚ More and more people are starting to use eco-friendly cars due to their environmental concerns.
Scenario 2: Struggling	⮚ The infrastructure for public transportation lacks good connectivity and stability, but the system is still affordable for most of citizens, so some citizens choose to travel by public transportation and shared mobility. ⮚ Many keep using their personal cars for convenience. ⮚ The government has failed to capitalize on the popularity of the eco-friendly car trend, so air pollution is getting worse. Traffic conditions and road traffic fatality rates are roughly the same as in the present situation.
Scenario 3: Frustrating	⮚ The infrastructure for public transportation lacks good connectivity and stability. The ticket prices are too high compared to the average income, but low-income citizens still rely on it because shared mobility is only affordable to the middle class. ⮚ Many keep using their personal cars, but they face terrible traffic and spend long hours on the road. This worsens the air quality and has an impact on health. ⮚ Due to the poor air quality, there are frequent orders to shut schools and work, which can worsen the economic condition. ⮚ Due to the congested roads and poor-quality vehicles, road safety is worse. This also decreases the modal share for active transport modes such as bicycles and scooters.
Scenario 4: Unbalancing	⮚ The infrastructure for public transportation is smart and reliable. It provides a variety of routes, but they are not optimally suitable for all citizens. ⮚ Most people still rely on traditional modes of public transportation, such as buses and minibuses, because the new system is unaffordable. ⮚ Due to the failed car restriction policy, many people keep using their personal cars. ⮚ Eco-friendly vehicles are considered luxury items among high-income earners. ⮚ From the emissions of all transport modes, air quality is worse, which can lead to serious health problems. ⮚ The number of road accidents has decreased, however, because there are fewer cars on the road.

presents an example of the opportunity analysis on future mobility. The group then began to consider alternatives for technological adaptation and innovation before planning a company roadmap. Due to confidentiality reasons, the company name cannot be revealed.

For future mobility, the group discussed alternatives related to different types of clean fuel, forms of filling stations, modes of public transportation, and platforms for shared mobility, which may be required to serve the development of future mobility in each scenario. Figure 9 shows that the group agreed that the technological adaptation and innovation for a shared mobility platform would be necessary across all four scenarios (represented by a green or solid color-filled box). While comparing the requirements for types of clean fuel, forms of filling stations, and modes of public transportation, there are some variations across the four scenarios (represented by boxes with red diagonal stripes or yellow reverse diagonal stripes). Without wasting time waiting to see which scenario would be the most probable or investing in something that is still not sure, the company can consider taking a proactive approach by setting up the target to drive innovation and R&D activities for the development of a shared mobility platform, because they share something in common across all four scenarios.

The group then continued to identify the key components for the development of a shared mobility platform, including mode (car, bike, scooter), reservation and scheduling management system (year, month, day, time, duration, trip), route (roundtrip, one-way, multiple stops), ownership management system (rental store, P2P), ride control (self-drive, passenger(s), autonomous), and operating system, data management, and user interface. These components are represented in a roadmap as the areas for development. The technological requirements for the future development of each key component were defined, along with the assessment of the company’s current capabilities. As a result, the gaps for technological development were determined so R&D projects could be set along with resource planning. If those projects fall within the company’s capabilities, then they were planned as an internal project; if not, then the group aimed to work with outside partners. Besides technological development, the company also needs to prepare to educate the market as well as to engage in the policy development [57,58]. Figure 10 shows the roadmap structure designed to guide the development of a shared mobility platform for this company.

5. Discussion

This study reflected that the future development of Bangkok continues to face various challenges. As the results of foresight and scenario planning, the possibilities for how Bangkok could be developed in the future were shown, ranging from the optimistic viewpoint—as presented in Scenario 1: Growth and Sustainability—to the pessimistic one as presented in Scenario 3: Frustrating. The development of four possible scenarios—Growth and Sustainability, Struggling, Frustrating, and Unbalancing, along with imaginative explanation, provided insights and helped the key stakeholders to envision what is likely to come.

The study also showed that mobility is always a key issue for big cities. The future development of mobility can be addressed in different ways, such as through filling stations, clean fuel, public transportation, shared mobility platforms, or last-mile traveling.

The contributions of this study are directed to the community of urban planners and policymakers involved in urban planning, as they can look into the details of each scenario and try to come up with policies to promote preferable conditions, as well as policies to prohibit undesirable conditions such as pollution, social divide, weak economy, or poor infrastructure development.

In addition, the contributions of this study to the case company are directed to the future development of its shared mobility products and services. As follow-up steps, the case company continued to finalize the future characteristics of shared mobility according to customer needs and expectations, and then develop a product-technology roadmap to guide future development of shared mobility solutions in detail. The development teams from both inside and outside of the company were gathered to handle different parts of the project. The core team in charge of the overall development of future mobility solutions worked closely with the development teams to make sure that all activities would be completed on time as planned.

6. Conclusions

This foresight study began with environmental scanning of various drivers of change that could influence long-term urban living and the production of visions of future possibilities. The scenarios were created to shed light on how alternative futures for urban living could unfold as the consequence of different policy directions and the development of particular technologies. The scenario planning was conducted through a series of workshops with the engagement of active citizens from various backgrounds. Storylines and illustrations were also provided to present each scenario. The study also demonstrated the usability of foresight and scenario analysis to develop a roadmap guiding a company’s technology and innovation development for future mobility.