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Article

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Rural Development in China over the Past 40 Years

by
Ying Lu
* and
Walter Timo de Vries
Chair of Land Management, Department of Aerospace and Geodesy, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich (TUM), 80333 Munich, Germany
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2023, 15(11), 8591; https://doi.org/10.3390/su15118591
Submission received: 1 April 2023 / Revised: 20 May 2023 / Accepted: 22 May 2023 / Published: 25 May 2023
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Rural Revitalization and the Green Transformation of Global Agriculture)
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Abstract

:
Over the past 40 years, rural China has witnessed drastic changes in its spatial and socio-economic development. In this study, we adopt a quantitative approach to analyze the spatio-temporal patterns of the rural development process. We build an indicator system with nine indicators from population, land, and industry dimensions and calculate the change rate of each indicator of 31 provinces in seven five-year development cycles from 1980 to 2018. Then, we identify five different development types and present their temporal evolution and spatial distribution. From the result, we can see that the predominant type changes under the influence of urbanization and industrialization processes and the development policies and strategies. The disparity between the western and eastern regions is obvious, and the city-clusters have a profound impact on the rural areas around them. We suggest that development policies and strategies should coordinate the relationship between population, land, and industry to achieve rural revitalization.

1. Introduction

The self-sufficient economy and relatively closed social environment have been the main characteristics of rural China for thousands of years. Without massive in- or out-migration, the structure of rural society remained unchanged from generation to generation. Most rural people were engaged in subsistence farming, animal husbandry, and fishing and had no other source of income. The land was also primarily used for agricultural production, with relatively low efficiencies [1]. However, rural areas of China have been undergoing a dramatic transformation over the past few decades. Since the economic reform and opening-up policy in 1978, the urbanization and industrialization processes have had a profound impact on the socio-economic and spatial development of rural areas [2,3,4]. Along with the process of urbanization, the number of cities in China has increased from 193 in 1978 to 672 in 2018 [5]. The built-up areas of cities and towns have continued to expand, while arable land areas have been on the decline [6]. Significant changes are also evident in demographic characteristics. The proportion of the rural population has gradually decreased from 82% in 1978 to 40% in 2018 [5]. Moreover, rural areas in many regions are facing serious problems, such as population aging and village hollowing [7,8]. Industrialization has been pursued as an important instrument to promote economic development in rural China. With the emergence of township–village enterprises (TVEs) in secondary industries, such as manufacturing, mining, quarrying, and construction, there has been a massive transfer of labor from primary to secondary industries in rural areas [9].
Over the past 40 years, the relationship between population, land, and industry in rural areas has changed, and the rural transformation is a complex process. At different points in time, the development of rural areas is confronted with different problems and challenges. National policies and strategies have also been adjusted to meet the changing needs of rural development. In the early 1980s, the priority of rural development was to improve production efficiency and to increase crop yields in order to ensure food security in China. The “household responsibility system” was then promoted as a national strategy to encourage the farmers to devote themselves to agricultural production. As the urban–rural gap in social and economic development widened in the 2000s, the focus of rural development was on “building a new socialist countryside” and achieving rural restructuring from various perspectives [10]. It can be concluded that the rural transformation process in China, influenced by both the urbanization and industrialization process and the development policies and strategies, has gone through several stages, each with its own specific features.
Due to the homogeneous status of traditional rural China, the central government used to treat rural areas as “a singular entity” [7], despite their vastness and internal differences. However, in many cases, the geographical location and natural environment could be the decisive factors for rural development, leading to differences in the basis of socio-economic development among regions. For example, the plain areas are more favorable for agricultural production and human settlement, while the mountainous areas tend to be richer in mineral resources. Coastal ports have advantages not only in the fishing industry, but also in the transportation sector, which is essential for trade and logistics. In contrast, there are still a large number of villages in rural areas that cannot be reached via modern roads. The frequent occurrence of natural disasters in some areas also adds to the difficulty of building infrastructure [11]. The opportunities and difficulties of rural development vary from region to region, as do the processes of rural transformation.
The constantly changing contexts and regional differentiation increase the difficulty of understanding the historical process and current situation of rural development in China. To make feasible and effective development policies and strategies, we need to take into account the typical characteristics of different rural areas at different times. This study takes a quantitative approach to analyze the temporal development process and spatial distribution patterns of rural development. It aims to identify the types of rural development and to depict the spatio-temporal transformation of rural development over the past 40 years. Based on the results of this study, we expect to describe, in outline, the rural development process, to have a better understanding of the motives and outcomes of rural development policies and strategies, and to lay out the prospects of future trends.

2. The Literature Review

Under the influence of urbanization and industrialization, the rural areas of many countries have experienced changes in society, the economy, and the environment. The topic of rural development has been discussed by researchers from different fields, and the rural transformation process has been described and analyzed from different perspectives [12]. Hoggart et al. explored the development trajectories of rural Europe through identity studies [13]. Nelson applied a discourse analysis to rural restructuring in the western United State [14]. Lobley and Potter examined the agricultural change and economic sustainability on the basis of a survey of rural households in England [15]. Gibson and McKay presented the rural transformation process in the Philippines from the perspective of rural resilience, habitat maintenance, and diversity [16].
As the scale and speed of urbanization and industrialization in China are unprecedented, the process of rural development in China is unique in history and has attracted the attention of a large number of researchers. Some scholars studied the dynamics of demographic change and its impact on rural society. Liu focused on the population aging and familial support in rural households [8]. Qin and Liao conducted a systematic review to examine how rural out-migration affects agricultural production [17], while Chen et al. analyzed the relationship between migration and land use transitions [18]. Land use and land cover changes in rural areas have also been significant in recent decades. Many scholars analyzed the land conversion process [6,19], and various socio-economic and environmental issues related to land have been widely observed in recent years, including the phenomenon of land abandonment [20], rural hollowing [21], loss of cultivated land [22], and farmland fragmentation [23], et al. The industrial transition has also been an important feature of rural transformation. Fan et al. examined changes in economic structure and the labor market in rural China in the late twentieth century [24]. The study by van der Ploeg and Ye described the conundrum and the changing paradigms of Chinese agriculture [25]. The development of TVEs has played an important role in the process of rural industrialization, and the prosperity and decline of TVEs have greatly affected rural economic development [26,27].
Due to the complexity of the rural development process in China, it is difficult to give a comprehensive picture of it. Many scholars conducted spatio-temporal analysis, and one of the promising approaches is the data-based analysis method. Li et al. analyzed the rural development process between 2000 and 2010 from the perspective of the rurality index. Variables that reflect the “population density, age structure, education level, employment, migration, and housing condition of rural areas” were selected to evaluate the degree of rurality [28]. Liu et al. conducted a study on rural poverty by comparing its spatial distribution characteristics in 1978 and 2014. The results showed that the rural poor were unevenly distributed in the northwestern and southeastern regions [29]. He et al. investigated the spatio-temporal pattern of county economy in eastern, central, western, and northeastern regions from 2000 to 2015 and provided evidence of the regional inequality in rural areas [30].
Scholars have also tried to identify the types of rural development by using a variety of indicators. Long et al. measured the proportions of the output value of primary, secondary, and tertiary industries in the total GDP and defined four types of rural development, i.e., “farming industry dominated rural development type, industry dominated rural development type, rural development type focusing on business, tourism and services industries, and balanced rural development type” [31]. Long et al. examined the rural transformation development from 2000 to 2008 by establishing three indicator systems, including the rural development level, the rural transformation level, and the urban–rural coordination level. To construct the indicator system, 17 indicators, such as agricultural output value, rural income, urbanization level, industrial structure, employment structure, rural–urban income gap, etc. were selected. Based on the clustering results, ten territorial types of rural transformation development were defined, each of which had its regional transformation characteristics [2].
Most of the research analyzed the rural transformation process after 2000. Few have studied the rural areas in the 1980s and 1990s. We believe that, by analyzing the past 40 years, our study can provide a more comprehensive picture of the rural development process in China. The analytical approach is also crucial in this study because different methods can produce different results in identifying development types, and this can lead to different interpretations of the development process. Therefore, in the next section, we will first introduce the indicators that we have chosen and the statistical method that we have used.

3. Materials and Methods

This study adopts a quantitative approach to identify the rural development types and to analyze the spatio-temporal patterns of the rural transformation process. First, we build the indicator system from three dimensions, i.e., population, land, and industry. Then, we collect the socio-economic and land-use data of 31 provinces in China from 1980 to 2018. Using these data, we calculate the change rate of each indicator in different periods. After that, we use the hierarchical clustering method to identify the development types. Finally, we illustrate their temporal evolution process and spatial distribution patterns.

3.1. Indicator System

Population, land, and industry are the core elements of rural development. “Population” refers to human resources, which are part of the main body of rural development. Changes in demographic and employment structure affect both the stability of rural society and the vitality of the rural economy. “Land” represents the natural resources that provide the material for agricultural production and the space for human settlements. The land use changes can, to a large extent, reflect the human activities in rural areas. “Industry” connects “population” and “land” by the utilization of both human and natural resources [32]. Agriculture, as the main industry, is the most important activity in rural areas, which distinguishes “the rural” from “the urban” in Chinese contexts [9]. Improving agricultural productivity has always been one of the main objectives of rural development in China. Population, land, and industry can be identified as three major dimensions, which incorporate a set of essential indicators that can reflect the rural development process. These three dimensions are also closely related to each other. Therefore, we propose that the rural transformation process can be regarded as the change in the population–land–industry relationship.
In this study, nine indicators are selected from these three dimensions for the purpose of analyzing the transformation process of rural development. The criteria for the selection of indicators are as follows: (1) Available. Data for each indicator must be available from the same source for the last 40 years. (2) Representative. The indicators should reflect the most significant changes in rural China under the influence of urbanization and industrialization. (3) Independent. The indicators should be independent of each other. Table 1 shows the nine indicators we selected and their explanation.
The first three indicators are chosen to represent the changes in “population”. The share of the rural population in the total population (RP) reflects the distribution of population in urban and rural areas. With the process of urban sprawl, some rural areas turn into urban areas, and the rural residents automatically become urban citizens. There are also a large number of migrant workers who leave their rural hometowns and spontaneously live in cities. These phenomena lead to the decline of the rural population. Rural income (RI) is an indicator to evaluate the livelihood of rural households. Poverty alleviation has always been one of the most urgent tasks on the rural development agenda. As the rural–urban disparity has increased in recent years, narrowing the income gap between urban and rural people has become a main concern. Agricultural employment (AE) reflects the employment structure of the whole society. “Agriculture”, in this study, refers to the primary sector of industry, including farming, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery. The modernization of agriculture, the prosperity of TVEs in the secondary sector, and the development of the service sector all contribute to the large-scale transfer of labor from the agricultural sector to non-agricultural sectors [2].
Arable land (AL), construction land (CL), and rural settlement land (SL) are the major land use types in rural areas. The changes in land use imply changes in human activities. Arable land is the area that can be used for agricultural production. The decrease in arable land is mainly caused by land requisition, which means the land is taken from the farmers for urban or infrastructure construction [6]. Construction land consists of areas for industrial zones, mining, quarrying, roads, railways, airports, and land for the production and supply of electricity, water, and gas, as well as other infrastructure construction. The rapid increase in construction land means the flourishing development of the secondary industry or the large-scale infrastructure construction in rural areas. Rural settlement land refers to the areas inhabited by rural people, the most common form of which is the village. It does not include the areas of cities and towns. Generally speaking, the increase in rural residential areas represents the expansion of villages and the improvement of living conditions. Besides these three types, there are other types of land use in rural areas, such as forest land, grassland, water areas, and unused land. They are not chosen as indicators because the areas of these types vary greatly in different regions.
Labor productivity (LP), agricultural machinery (AM), and grain yield (GY) are indicators that reflect the industrial development in rural areas. Labor productivity is defined, here, as the gross value of agricultural output divided by the number of laborers employed in the primary industry. Grain yield is calculated as the total grain output divided by the grain sown area. These two indicators examine the efficiency of agricultural production from the perspective of labor and land. Higher agricultural productivity means more output with less labor costs and less land, which can be achieved through various means, such as the use of machinery, the application of advanced technology, and the improvement of management methods. Agricultural machinery is chosen as an indicator because it is easy to quantify. It shows the per capita ownership of machinery by farmers, which is an important indicator for assessing the industrial transition from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture.
Figure 1 shows the indicators and the three dimensions of rural development. These indicators are used to analyze the changes in rural population, land, and industry. In the Chinese context, “farmer (nongmin)”, “agriculture (nongye)”, and “rural area (nongcun)” are regarded as three key issues of rural development, which are collectively referred to as “Sannong”. This concept is also embedded in our population–land–industry system, as shown in Figure 1. “Rural area” consists of population and land. “Farmer” refers to the people employed in the primary industry. The social aspects of farmers, such as employment and income, are important issues. “Agriculture” refers to the productivity aspects of agricultural activities. The development of “agriculture” is influenced by the modernization of industry and the dynamic changes of rural land. Their characteristics can also be reflected by the indicators we have chosen.
To study the transformation of rural development, we calculate the change rate of each indicator in different periods. The change rate reflects the extent and speed of the impact of urbanization and industrialization process on rural socio-economic development and land use structure. The formulation for calculating the annual average change rate is:
γ = ( x i x j ) 1 i − j − 1
where; γ is the annual average change rate, xi is the value of the indicator in the later year, xj is the value in the early year, and i − j represents the time span.

3.2. Data Collection

The study areas in this research are the 31 provinces in China, including five autonomous regions and four municipalities. Three regions, namely, Hongkong, Macau, and Taiwan, are not included due to the lack in data. The time period is from 1980 to 2018. The starting year is 1980, instead of 1978, because it is the earliest year for which all the necessary data are available. We take five years as a cycle to calculate the rate of change because it is consistent with the five-year plans in China. The five-year plans are issued by the central government every five years and can be regarded as a guideline for socio-economic development in both urban and rural areas. Based on the development of the previous five years, the government will adjust the development directions and goals for the next five years. Therefore, we can infer that the rate of change in indicators varies in different cycles. Socio-economic data are collected from the statistical yearbooks of each province. Within each cycle, data are collected from the same source to ensure continuity. Economic data are standardized and calculated at a comparable price. Land-use data are obtained from the remote sensing data, which are interpreted from Landsat digital images by the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The land use data are available in 1980, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2018 on the website https://www.resdc.cn/ (accessed on 10 April 2021). Due to the lack of data in 1985, the first cycle is from 1980 to 1990. The following cycles are 1990–1995, 1995–2000, 2000–2005, 2005–2010, 2010–2015, and 2015–2018. The change rates of indicators in seven cycles of 31 provinces make up 217 samples, each of which contains nine variables. We use these samples as the dataset for clustering analysis to identify the different types of rural development.

3.3. Hierarchical Clustering

Hierarchical clustering is one of the most popular methods to perform an unsupervised clustering task. The goal of the method is to build a hierarchy of clusters, which can be represented as a “tree”. The agglomerative (“bottom-up”) approach assumes that, at the beginning, each sample is initially in its own cluster. Two or more clusters with certain similarities can be merged into a larger cluster and then moved up to the next level of the hierarchy. After several iterations, when all the samples are gathered in one cluster, the clustering process ends. Then, we can slice the “tree” at a selected level, thus forming the clusters. In this study, we use the software SPSS to conduct hierarchical clustering analysis. First, the samples are normalized by Z-scores. Then, they are merged into clusters by the Ward method in the clustering process. The Ward method guarantees that the total within-cluster variance is minimized after merging. Finally, we find the results interpretable when the number of clusters is seven. The clusters and their characteristics are explained in the empirical results.

3.4. Limitations

We must admit that this study has limitations. First of all, the indicators we have chosen can only reflect the rural development process from a limited point of view. Due to the lack of data in the early years, several indicators cannot be included in this study, such as the age structure, education level, and Gini coefficient of the rural population. Data on rural social development, such as the number of schools and hospitals, are also not always available. In addition, there are no indicators that reflect the ecological changes in the rural areas, such as the air quality or temperature. We must admit that it is impossible to obtain an overall picture of rural development in China in a single study. This study aims to examine rural development from a population–land–industry perspective. We hope to conduct some complementary analyses in future studies. Second, as this is a long-term study, data for all indicators must be available and continuous for the selected years. Due to the lack of some data for 2020, we could not set the last cycle as 2015 to 2020. The lack of updates to the most recent data is one of the limitations of this article. Finally, it is important to note that there are no clear lines between each cluster, which is a feature of the hierarchical clustering method. For example, if we change the number of clusters from seven to six, then some of the samples that belonged to one cluster will be classified into another cluster. We chose seven clusters because the variance between clusters is obvious, and the number of clusters is sufficient so that the results can be interpreted well. It does not mean that there are only seven types and that each sample strictly belongs to one type. Therefore, it is meaningless to study the type of each province and its changes at the micro-level. The analysis that focuses on the whole transformation process in China might lead to a better result.

4. Results

In this section, we first introduce the five types of development. We then analyze the temporal evolution of rural development types by identifying the predominant types in each five-year cycle. Finally, we discuss the spatial distribution characteristics of these types.

4.1. Rural Development Types

Based on the results of the hierarchical clustering analysis, the 217 samples can be divided into seven clusters. The number of samples in each cluster is 82, 41, 36, 35, 17, 5, and 1, respectively. Since the samples rarely merge into the last two clusters, they are not sufficient for further analysis and are, therefore, excluded. The remaining five clusters can be identified as the five main types of rural development. Each type is distinguished from others by its unique combination of the change rates of nine indicators. The median change rate of each indicator is selected to represent the characteristics of each type and is presented in Table 2. Figure 2 shows the difference between each type in radar charts.
Type I consists of 36 samples. As shown in Table 1, the change rate in the rural population of Type I is the lowest, and the change rates of land are also not obvious. On the other hand, the change rates of industry show an improvement in agricultural production. In addition to the increase in labor productivity and ownership of agricultural machinery, the growth rate of grain yield is the highest among all types. Therefore, Type I can be regarded as the Agricultural Development Type.
Type II represents the Stagnation Development Type and includes 35 samples. Compared with other types, the numbers of almost all change rates in this type are close to 0, which can be clearly seen on the radar chart in Figure 2. The demographic structure and land use in rural areas remain unchanged. Both labor productivity and rural income increase at the slowest rate. Grain yield even experiences a downward trend. This type represents a stagnant stage of rural development and implies that there is no significant improvement in agricultural production or rural livelihoods.
Type III is the largest cluster, containing 82 samples. We name it the Rural Industrialization Type because it shows remarkable changes in rural areas under the influence of industrialization. The employment structure changes with the transfer of labor from the agricultural sector to the non-agricultural sector. Along with the increased power of agricultural machinery, the growth of labor productivity is particularly noticeable. It can be seen as the beginning of the transition from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture.
Type IV is the smallest cluster and contains only 14 samples. It is characterized by the extremely high growth rate of rural construction land. It can be inferred that a great deal of effort has been put into village construction, so we name it the Rural Construction Type. It is also worth noting that the growth rate of agricultural machinery is the highest, and the increase in rural income is unprecedented. It means that not only the agricultural productivity, but also the rural livelihood, has been improved.
Type V contains 41 samples and represents the Rural Urbanization Type. The major differences between this type and others are the significant changes in rural population and land use. The decline in the share of rural population and agricultural employment is the fastest. The loss of arable land and the expansion of rural residential areas are also on the largest scale. The change rates of these indicators suggest that the transformation of rural areas is influenced by the urbanization process.

4.2. Temporal Evolution of Rural Development Types

As demonstrated in Figure 3, different regions of China are dominated by different types at different times. We calculate the number of provinces, including autonomous regions and municipalities, of each rural development type in each cycle and show it in Figure 4. As can be seen from the graph, Type I was the predominant type in 1980–1990. From 1990 to 2005, Types I, II, III, and V coexisted, and none became the absolute majority. Type II and Type III made up a large portion of the total. After 2005, there was a tendency toward unification. Types III, IV, and V accounted for the largest number in the cycles 2005–2010, 2010–2015, and 2015–2018, respectively.
In the 1980–1990 cycle, 23 out of 31 provinces belonged to the Agricultural Development Type. According to the statistics in Table 2, it could be concluded that, during this period, most of the rural people still stayed in rural areas, and migration to urban areas was limited. The arable land also remained unchanged, and there was only a small amount of expansion of the construction land and settlement land. This meant that most of the rural areas in the 1980s were not yet affected by the urbanization process, and the rural society remained relatively stable. Although the number of workers employed in the primary sector of industry decreased slightly, agricultural production was still an important component of economic activity. This was evidenced by the growth in the per capita gross output value of agricultural production and the ownership of machinery. Grain yield also increased dramatically. The results could be related to a rural development strategy, the “household responsibility system”. From 1966 to 1976, China experienced ten years of chaos, which caused disruptions in all sectors of the economy. At the beginning of the 1980s, the primary task of rural development was to resume agricultural production. In 1983, the “household responsibility system” was promulgated as a national strategy. Farmers were encouraged to manage their own production activities without following the government’s “economic plans” [33]. Our analysis showed that this strategy successfully increased the efficiency of agricultural production.
From 1990 to 2005, four types of rural development coexisted in rural China: the Agricultural Development Type, the Stagnation Development Type, the Rural Industrialization Type, and the Rural Urbanization Type. The number of provinces belonging to the Agricultural Development Type decreased to 2 and remained around 5 until 2005, while the number of the Rural Urbanization Type increased steadily from 2 to 6. The Stagnation Development Type and the Rural Industrialization Type were the main types in this period.
The Stagnation Development Type first appeared in the 1980–1990 cycle, including only one province. Then, the number increased to 11 in 1990–1995 and 1995–2000, and it stood at 8 in 2005–2010. It was not the predominant type in any cycle, but it was an important type from 1990 to 2005. Compared with the Agricultural Development Type, the Stagnation Development Type showed an opposite trend in agricultural production. Although the area of arable land increased and the non-agricultural labor transfer slowed down, labor productivity and grain yield did not improve significantly. The decline in grain yield was particularly notable, suggesting a decline in agricultural productivity. Many reasons could explain the stagnant stage of rural development during this period. One of them was that, after several years of boosted agricultural production in the 1980s, the supply–demand equilibrium of grain was basically achieved. The focus shifted to the adjustment of agricultural structure and the establishment of the market system. Without the government’s “economic plans”, some farmers became aimless in organizing agricultural production. Meanwhile, the price of consumer goods rose faster than the price of agricultural products. As a result, the income of rural households was reduced [34]. While various rural areas experienced stagnation in the period 1990–2005, the urban areas in China experienced prosperity, resulting in a widening gap between the rural and the urban. In order to solve the problems of rural development, a series of measures had been taken concerning “Sannong”, i.e., issues related to agriculture, rural areas, and farmers. For example, the agricultural tax was abolished in 2005 to improve the income of rural households [35]. After the policies and strategies focused on rural issues were implemented, the stagnation stage of rural development disappeared. It can be seen from Figure 4 that the number of Type II started to decrease from 2005.
The Rural Industrialization Type is the largest type, which includes 82 samples and can be found in all cycles. Its number increased from 6 in 1980–1990 to 16 in 1990–1995, and then it stood at 12 in 1995–2000 and 2000–2005, and it reached its peak at 24 in 2005–2010. After that, the number fell to 9 in 2010–2015 and 3 in 2015–2018. Compared with Type I and II, the speed of changes in the demographic and employment structure accelerated significantly, which implied the beginning of the transformation of rural societies. According to the statistics in Table 2, both the labor productivity and the grain yield were significantly improved with the continuous input of agricultural machinery. As a result, a large number of farmers were displaced from their agricultural lands. Some of these surplus rural laborers moved to towns and cities, while others were transferred to the secondary and tertiary industries in rural areas. This phenomenon led to a decline in the proportion of the rural population and labor in agricultural production. In the Rural Industrialization Type, the shrinking of arable land and the expansion of construction land were on a larger scale. It could be inferred that the changes in land use were related to the establishment of township–village enterprises. Since the reform and opening-up policy, the development of TVEs in rural areas has been promoted. A large number of TVEs have been established, creating numerous job opportunities [36]. Millions of rural laborers changed not only their jobs, but also their identities. The former “farmers” became “workers”, and their relationship with the land also changed. It is worth noting that the income of rural households of this type increased rapidly, indicating that the process of rural industrialization had also improved rural livelihoods.
In 2005–2010, a new type of rural development, the Rural Construction Type, could be observed in Figure 4. Its number soared from 2 in 2005–2010 to 15 in 2010–2015 and then plummeted to zero in 2015–2018. Type IV could be considered as an “upgrade” of Type III. Similar to the Rural Industrialization Type, the share of rural population and agricultural employment decreased, while the rural income, labor productivity, agricultural machinery, and grain yield increased. The most significant feature of this type was the change in land use. The area of construction land increased threefold, on average, over the five-year cycle. The drastic changes in land use suggested that the rural landscape had been transformed. The Rural Construction Type could be inferred as a direct result of the national strategy of “building a new socialist countryside”. Long-term urban-oriented development strategies led to the marginalization of agriculture and the growing disparity between urban and rural. Problems, such as an aging population, labor shortages, and lack of economic vitality, plagued rural areas. In 2006, “building a new socialist countryside” was promoted as the new guideline for rural development, and several strategies were implemented by the national and local governments. One of the goals was the reconstruction of the image of rural areas through investment in infrastructure construction. The construction of railways, roads, and facilities for water supply, sewage treatment, waste disposal, etc. not only improved the inhabited environment in rural areas, but also contributed to the rural economic development [37].
As shown in Figure 4, the Rural Urbanization Type could be seen in every cycle from 1980 to 2018. Its number gradually increased from 1 in 1980–1990 to 6 in 2010–2015. In 2015–2018, 18 out of 25 provinces belonged to it, and it became the predominant type. The change rates in several indicators reached the peak or the lowest point in this type, which indicated the tremendous transformation of rural social, economic, and spatial development. The changes in the rural population showed the same trend as compared with Type IV and Type V. The rural-out migration and the transfer of labor to the non-agricultural sector continued to increase. However, the growth rates of agricultural machinery and grain yield were greatly reduced, suggesting that agricultural production might not be the priority of this type of rural development. It could be inferred that the focal point of rural industry has shifted from the primary sector to the secondary and tertiary sectors. The decrease in arable land and the increase in residential land were unprecedented, which showed that the spatial pattern of land use in rural areas was drastically changed. These changes indicated that the urbanization process had far-reaching effects on rural development. Rural areas of this type could be regarded as in the process of transition. Some of the characteristics of “rural” gradually disappeared, and rural areas became similar to urban areas in some respects.
In summary, the predominant type of rural development has changed over the past 40 years. In the 1980–1990 cycle, the Agricultural Development Type was the absolute majority, suggesting that the development of China’s rural areas is relatively uniform. It is characterized by agricultural production as the main industry, limited migration, and little change in land use. From 1990 to 2005, both the Stagnation Development Type and the Rural Industrialization Type could be regarded as the main types. Then, the Rural Industrialization Type became predominant in 2005–2010. During these two decades, some regions were affected by a number of factors that limited the development of agriculture, resulting in the slow development of the rural economy. However, after the implementation of a series of development policies and strategies, most regions have quickly passed through this stage. Rural industrialization has an impact on rural development at two levels. The first is the increase in the level of agricultural mechanization, and the second is the development of the secondary sector in rural areas, represented by the establishment of TVEs. Both have led to a decline in the number of workers in the primary sector and a shift of labor to the non-agricultural sector. Rural livelihoods have improved as rural economic activities have diversified, and rural residents have more employment opportunities. After 2010, the predominant type shifted from the Rural Construction Type in 2010–2015 to the Rural Urbanization Type in 2015–2018. During these periods, rural development was mainly influenced by the national development strategy and the urbanization process. Significant changes in land use have drastically altered the rural landscape, as evidenced by the decrease in arable land and the increase in rural construction land and rural settlement land. China’s urbanization process is still ongoing, and rural areas will continue to be impacted in the future. The Rural Urbanization Type might be the predominant type in the next few decades.

4.3. Spatial Distribution of Rural Development Types

China has a land area of more than nine million square kilometers, stretching for about 5200 km from east to west and 5500 km from north to south. Because of its vast territory, the natural environment, resource allocation, and population distribution vary greatly from region to region. The strengths and weaknesses of rural development in different regions are also diverse. In this study, we observe the rural transformation processes in different regions and summarize what characteristics they have in terms of geographical distribution.

4.3.1. Disparity between the Western and Eastern Regions

Based on geographical location, China can be divided into four regions: the western region, the eastern region, the central region, and the northeastern region. Provinces in the same region tend to have more similarities, not only in resources and environment, but also in culture and customs [38]. It is, therefore, possible that the transformation process in these rural areas may have common features. On the other hand, provinces in different regions may go through different processes. Among the four regions in China, the western and eastern regions are the largest in area and contain the largest number of provinces. There are also significant differences between these two regions in various aspects. Therefore, we make a comparative study of the western and eastern regions by calculating the types of rural development in each cycle.
As shown in Figure 5, the western region includes 12 provinces: Guangxi, Nei Mongol, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet, Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai, and Xinjiang. Figure 6 shows the evolution of the rural development types in the western region. The predominant type was Type I in 1980–1990, Type II in 1990–1995, Type III in 2005–2010, Type IV in 2010–2015, and Type V in 2015–2018. The geographical and ecological conditions in the western region are complex, including plateaus, deserts, prairies, mountains, hilly areas, etc. Generally speaking, the proportion of the plains is less than in the eastern region, but the weather conditions are more severe, and natural disasters are frequent. This has resulted in the western region being less favorable for agricultural production or human settlements. From 1980 to 1995, most of the provinces belonged to Type I and Type II, with relatively low rates of change in labor productivity. This can be attributed to the lack of fertile farmland and the low level of mechanization. The complex environment also hinders the construction of infrastructure, such as modern roads and railways. Since accessibility is crucial for logistics, industrial development in remote rural areas could be severely restricted. Given these disadvantages, rural development in the western region depends on policy and strategy support. National strategies, such as “Sannong” and “build a new socialist countryside”, have promoted rural socio-economic and spatial development. It is worth noting that the provinces belong to Type IV, which represents a rapid transformation, mostly located in the western region. It can be inferred that the development strategy has targeted the western region and had a far-reaching impact on it.
The eastern region consists of 10 provinces: Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong, and Hainan. It is demonstrated, in Figure 6, that Type III and Type V are the main types in each cycle, while Type I, Type II, and Type IV are hardly found. The vast plain areas and the relatively mild climate make the eastern region ideal for agricultural production. The limited number of Type I and Type II indicates that agricultural productivity is always increasing at a high rate. Moreover, all the provinces in the eastern region are located in coastal areas, so they have natural advantages in logistics and trade, which also provide a good foundation for industrialization. We can see from Figure 6 that Type III first appeared in 1980–1990, which was earlier than in the western region. With a large number of cities, the eastern region has always been the most densely populated area in China. The rural areas are also influenced by the prosperity of the cities. Therefore, until 2015, almost all the provinces that belong to Type V are located in the eastern region.
The comparison shows the disparity between the western and eastern regions. Faced with relatively unfavorable conditions, agricultural production in the western region lagged behind in the early stages. Rural areas remained stable for several years, with the demographic structure and land use pattern remaining unchanged. Rural development has been promoted in recent years, with the implementation of a series of policies and strategies. In contrast, the agricultural production in the eastern region was well developed. The rural areas there were the first to be affected by the industrialization and urbanization process, which led to significant social and spatial transformation. The discrepancy has existed for a long time, and the government has proposed many development policies to address the imbalance between the west and the east. In 1999, a general strategy for coordinated regional development, “western development”, was proposed by the central government of China. The goal was to narrow the gap between the economic development of the eastern and western regions and to enhance the comprehensive economic strength of the western regions through policy tilting and financial investment. Under this policy, the western rural areas have developed in agricultural production, infrastructure construction, ecological and environmental protection, education and health care, etc.

4.3.2. The Rural Areas around the City Clusters

Over the past 40 years, China has experienced the largest and fastest urbanization process in the history of the world. The number of cities has increased rapidly, and urban areas have expanded at an astonishing rate. A phenomenon that can be observed is that some of the cities have agglomerated and formed larger clusters. The city cluster in the planning concept refers to the region that contains two or more cities that are closely linked by transportation, logistics, and other various activities [39]. As shown in Figure 5, there are three major city clusters in China: the Jing-jin-ji City-Cluster, which includes Beijing and Tianjin, i.e., two provincial-level municipalities; the Yangtze River Delta City-Cluster, which contains several cities, such as Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing, and Hefei; and the Pearl River Delta City-Cluster, which develops around Guangzhou and is close to the two special administrative regions of Hongkong and Macau. The development of city clusters generally focuses on the cities and their connections. In this study, we pay attention to the vast rural areas around them. As can be seen from Figure 3, from 1980 to 2018, the rural areas around these three city clusters mostly belonged to Type III and Type V. With the short distance and convenient transportation systems, the cities are more accessible to the people in the rural areas around the city clusters, which means better chances for job opportunities, education, and medical care. Rural areas can also benefit from being connected to cities. For example, some industries in the cities can be taken over and relocated to the villages, which promotes the industrial transition in the rural areas. Frequent logistics and trade between the urban and rural areas also contribute to the prosperity of rural industries, especially in the secondary and tertiary sectors. Farmers also have potential access to other economic activities and opportunities to improve the income of their households. Rural areas around the cities also face challenges, such as massive rural–urban land conversion. As the city expands to its outskirts and needs more space to grow, the land of the villages near the city will be converted into urban construction land by administrative means. After this land requisition process, the rural areas, especially the arable land areas, will be drastically reduced, and many farmers will lose their farmland and have to move to other places. Therefore, this process often leads to protests by rural residents [40]. The development of rural areas around city clusters might indicate the future of rural development, as more and more rural areas will be close to the cities with the accelerated urbanization process. “Urban–rural integration” becomes the current issue. Some scholars argue that the development of small towns is the key to coordinated urban–rural development. It is suggested that the small towns, which are close to the rural areas, could provide public services and offer job opportunities for the rural surplus labor. Then, the long-distance migration could disappear, and the increasing burden of large cities could be relieved [41].

5. Discussion

This study analyzes the rural development process in China from the perspective of population, land, and industry, which are the key elements of rural areas. As mentioned above, rural transformation can be regarded as the changes in the relationship between population, land, and industry. In this section, we will have a discussion on the relationship between each of the two elements and the major problems faced in the current situation.

5.1. Population and Land

In all five types of rural development, the proportion of the rural population shows the tendency of decline. From Table 2, we can see that the rate of decline has accelerated from Type I to Type V. In China, the proportion of the rural population has been steadily decreasing from 82% in 1978 to 40% in 2018. Compared with the population decline, the area of rural settlement land showed the opposite trend and continued to grow. In general, this indicates that the living conditions of rural residents have improved. However, the rapid expansion of rural settlement land may also lead to inefficient use of land, especially in the hollowed-out villages. The vacant or abandoned residential buildings cause the deterioration of the rural residential environment [21]. There are many factors that contribute to the formation of hollowed villages. One of the factors is the migrant workers, the number of which reached 288 million in 2018 [5]. The migrant workers refer to the rural residents who move out in search of job opportunities. Some of them stay in the cities or towns for a certain period of time during the years, while others decide not to go back to the rural areas and eventually become permanent urban residents. As a result, a number of elderly people, children, and those who are unable to work in the cities or towns are left behind in the villages without proper care and attention [42]. The root of the problem lies in the disparity between urban and rural areas, not only in terms of job opportunities and income, but also in terms of education and health care. As the urban–rural gap widens, people’s preference for urban life is understandably on the rise, leading to problems in both urban and rural development. Many cities in China are facing problems, such as resource shortages and environmental degradation, due to excessive expansion. Meanwhile, in rural areas, population decline, aging, and labor shortage have become current issues. Therefore, we argue that the solution is to narrow the urban–rural gap and achieve a balanced development [9,19].
Another issue between the rural people and the land is land ownership. In rural areas, land, including arable land, rural construction land, and rural settlement land, etc., is owned by rural collectives, which refer to the organization of rural residents. Rural households only have contracting and management rights, which limits the ability of farmers to benefit from their land [43]. Driven by urbanization, there has been a massive conversion of rural land into urban construction through land requisition. Due to the ambiguity of land ownership, farmers usually have no rights to stop the requisition process. In many cases, farmers lose their land and have no choice but to accept the outcome, even if they are inadequately compensated and unfairly treated [44]. Some are not able to maintain their livelihoods afterwards because they have no other work skills, and some have difficulty adjusting to their new lives in the cities, eventually becoming marginalized in society [45]. Many scholars have suggested that the damage to farmers’ interests should be stopped through an alternative land requisition process, and the strengthening of rural residents’ property rights should be taken into consideration through land policy reform [46,47]. Bottom-up initiatives and participation in rural development should also be encouraged [48,49].

5.2. Land and Industry

Land is a key resource for rural development, but this resource is limited. How to use land wisely and balance the demands for food security, economic development, and environmental conservation is an important issue for rural development.
In China, agriculture has always been the most important industry in rural areas, but in recent decades, the area of arable land in most provinces has been decreasing. Part of the decline in arable land is due to the expansion of urban and rural settlements. Another part of arable land has been returned to forest and grassland for environmental protection purposes [50]. As a result, rural areas face the challenge of increasing the output of agricultural products on less arable land in order to supply enough food for urban development and to ensure the nation’s food security. To improve agricultural productivity, modern agriculture is promoted as a promising approach. Modern agriculture is different from traditional agriculture in that it is based on science and technology, rather than on traditional experience. It develops on the basis of modern industry because it requires the use of machinery and industrial products, such as fertilizers and pesticides. It aims to establish an advanced system with mass production and reduced consumption [51]. However, one of the obstacles to the spread of modern agriculture in rural China is the fragmentation of farmland. Since the implementation of the “household responsibility system”, most of the farmland in rural areas has been divided into small plots for each household. To solve this problem, many land consolidation projects are being carried out in rural China. Land consolidation is the optimization of land use by readjusting and rearranging land parcels. It is also implemented to achieve sustainable development and rural revitalization [52,53].
It is worth noting that, in the Type IV and Type V, the growth rate of rural construction land is significantly higher than the other types, which indicates the development of rural infrastructure and rural industrial areas. In recent years, the central and local governments have invested a lot in the construction of rural transportation infrastructure, such as airports, railways, and roads. It has been proved that the investment in transportation can facilitate the flow of labor and capital between regions and promote rural economic development [54,55]. In particular, rural road construction is considered to be an effective means of poverty alleviation [56]. Another factor contributing to the increase in rural construction land is the establishment of rural industrial zones. Most of the rural enterprises are engaged in secondary industries, such as manufacturing, mining, quarrying, and construction. On the one hand, they provide employment opportunities and increase rural GDP and rural household income. On the other hand, they are often criticized for polluting the environment [57,58]. The conflict between economic development and environmental protection is an issue that needs to be considered when making rural development and land use plans.

5.3. Population and Industry

In the 1980s, more than 80 percent of the rural labor force was employed in agriculture, while in the 2010s, this figure dropped to about 60 percent. The increase in off-farm employment is mainly due to the improvement in agricultural productivity, which creates a large amount of surplus of labor. However, there are an increasing number of rural residents, especially among the younger generation, who are giving up farming and choosing to work in the cities in order to earn a higher income. This has led to the abandonment of arable land and the loss of labor in rural areas [20,59]. With the aging of rural society, the question of “who will farm in the future” is becoming a pressing issue. Therefore, “making agriculture a promising industry” and “making farming an attractive profession” have been set as the current goal of rural development in China. With the promotion of modern agriculture, a series of institutional arrangements and policies are implemented to develop the education and training systems, as well as to cultivate a group of “new farmers”, who have professional skills and knowledge of agricultural production and business management [60].
According to our analysis, rural incomes have been rising over the past few decades. China has also made great progress in poverty alleviation. However, there are still some problems that need to be addressed. These include the income gap between different regions and the geographical imbalance of development, which contribute to disparities in the livelihoods of rural households. Recently, the development of rural tourism and rural e-commerce provide new ideas to solve these problems. Since the 1990s, rural tourism has grown in popularity in China. The core of it is to use the local characteristics of the rural areas in terms of landscape, architecture, culture, and customs to attract tourists. It is regarded as a great opportunity for villages to achieve rural revitalization, especially for those traditional villages that have lost their vitality. The development of rural tourism has not only promoted the rural off-farm employment and industrial transformation by expanding tertiary industries, such as accommodation, catering, and other services, but it has also improved rural livability, as many villages have taken the initiative to carry out environmental renovation [61,62]. Rural e-commerce is developing, based on the construction of the network infrastructure in rural areas. Rural governments, enterprises, and households disseminate and access various information via the Internet. Local tourism and special products are promoted through online advertising. Farmers and rural enterprises know the market demand and can adjust their production strategies in time [63,64]. Both rural tourism and rural e-commerce are proven to be effective in alleviating poverty and improving rural livelihoods. Therefore, they are considered as new approaches for rural development, especially in the western region [65,66].

6. Conclusions

This study applies spatio-temporal analysis to the rural development process in China over the past 40 years. A quantitative approach is adopted by selecting nine indicators from the population-land-industry dimensions, namely, rural population, rural income, agricultural employment, arable land, construction land, rural settlement land, labor productivity, agricultural machinery, and grain yield. Data are collected from 31 provinces from 1980 to 2018, and the annual average change rate of each indicator is calculated in every five-year cycle. Then, the hierarchical clustering method is used to complete the clustering task. Five major types are identified: the Agricultural Development Type, the Stagnation Development Type, the Rural Industrialization Type, the Rural Construction Type, and the Rural Urbanization Type. From 1980 to 2018, 31 provinces in China belonged to different rural development types. The Agricultural Development Type mainly existed in the 1980–1990 cycle. The Stagnation Development Type was one of the main types from 1990 to 2005. The Rural Industrialization Type appeared in every cycle. It grew and spread steadily in China from 1980 to 2010, reaching its peak in 2005–2010. The Rural Construction Type could only be found in two cycles, mostly in the 2010–2015 cycle. The Rural Urbanization Type gradually increased from 1980 to 2015, and it became the predominant type in 2015–2018. It can be seen that these types are also unevenly distributed in China. The regional differences between the western and eastern regions are huge from many perspectives. The eastern region has been dramatically affected by the industrialization and urbanization process, while the rural development in the western region has been highly policy-driven. The rural areas around the city clusters have undergone a unique transformation process and face special problems.
The relationship between population, land, and industry in rural areas is dynamic and diverse. A coordinated relationship leads to sustainable rural development, and unbalanced development brings about problems. Policies and development strategies should adjust relationships to the different situations faced by different regions at different times. Therefore, we argue that the rural areas in China can no longer be treated as a whole, and the “one-size-fits-all” national policy is no longer appropriate for current rural development. Different regions should adopt different approaches, and local governments should prioritize policies that address local characteristics and target specific problems. We suggest that a case study is necessary for further research to have a more specific and detailed analysis, which could be essential to achieve a coordinated development from the perspective of population, land, and industry.

Author Contributions

Conceptualization, Y.L.; methodology, Y.L.; software, Y.L.; formal analysis, Y.L.; investigation, Y.L.; resources, Y.L.; data curation, Y.L.; writing—original draft preparation, Y.L.; writing—review and editing, Y.L. and W.T.d.V.; supervision, W.T.d.V. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Funding

This research received no external funding.

Institutional Review Board Statement

Not applicable.

Informed Consent Statement

Not applicable.

Data Availability Statement

All data used in this study are available by request from the corresponding author ([email protected]).

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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Figure 1. Population–Land–Industry System.
Figure 1. Population–Land–Industry System.
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Figure 2. Comparison of five development types in radar charts. In this chart, the numbers of the median change rate of indicators in Table 2 are transferred by the formulation x’ = sgn(x) × log10(|x| + 1), in order to present the differences between each type. The darker circle in each chart represents 0, and the circles around it are placed at intervals of 0.5.
Figure 2. Comparison of five development types in radar charts. In this chart, the numbers of the median change rate of indicators in Table 2 are transferred by the formulation x’ = sgn(x) × log10(|x| + 1), in order to present the differences between each type. The darker circle in each chart represents 0, and the circles around it are placed at intervals of 0.5.
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Figure 3. Spatio-temporal transformation of rural development in China.
Figure 3. Spatio-temporal transformation of rural development in China.
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Figure 4. The number of provinces of each rural development type.
Figure 4. The number of provinces of each rural development type.
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Figure 5. The western region, eastern region, and three major city clusters in China.
Figure 5. The western region, eastern region, and three major city clusters in China.
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Figure 6. The rural development types in the western region and the eastern region.
Figure 6. The rural development types in the western region and the eastern region.
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Table
Table 1. Indicator system.
Table 1. Indicator system.
IndicatorExplanationUnit
Rural Population (RP)Share of the rural population in total population%
Rural Income (RI)Per capita income of rural householdsYuan
Agricultural Employment
(AE)		Share of agricultural employment in total employment%
Arable Land (AL)Areas of arable land 10,000 hectares
Construction Land (CL)Areas for industrial zones, transportation, and other infrastructure construction outside cities and towns10,000 hectares
Rural Settlement Land (SL)Areas for rural settlement10,000 hectares
Labor Productivity (LP)Gross output value of agriculture divided by the laborers employed in the primary industryYuan
Agricultural Machinery (AM)Total power of agricultural machinery divided by the laborers employed in the primary industrykW
Grain Yield (GY)Per unit area grain yield10,000 tons
Table
Table 2. The median change rate of indicators of different types (%).
Table 2. The median change rate of indicators of different types (%).
Sample CountRural PopulationRural IncomeAgriculture EmploymentLabor ProductivityAgriculture
Machinery		Grain YieldArable
Land		Construction LandRural Settlement
Type I36−0.626.46−1.334.755.454.01−0.011.780.18
Type II35−0.934.27−0.823.924.68−0.240.021.340.18
Type III82−1.628.20−2.527.007.471.60−0.072.700.13
Type IV17−2.7110.24−2.866.858.271.80−0.1824.550.47
Type V41−3.027.04−3.386.253.560.79−0.418.381.77
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Lu, Y.; de Vries, W.T. Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Rural Development in China over the Past 40 Years. Sustainability 2023, 15, 8591. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15118591

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Lu Y, de Vries WT. Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Rural Development in China over the Past 40 Years. Sustainability. 2023; 15(11):8591. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15118591

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Lu, Ying, and Walter Timo de Vries. 2023. "Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Rural Development in China over the Past 40 Years" Sustainability 15, no. 11: 8591. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15118591

APA Style

Lu, Y., & de Vries, W. T. (2023). Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Rural Development in China over the Past 40 Years. Sustainability, 15(11), 8591. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15118591

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