Model of Multi Criteria Decision-Making for Selection of Transportation Alternatives on the Base of Transport Needs Hierarchy Framework and Application of Petri Net
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- The needs hierarchy provides a new perspective on transportation route analysis. The hierarchical levels—geographical, economic, institutional, infrastructure, and technology—offer an intuitive yet comprehensive structure.
- Petri nets bring innovation through their ability to model complex concurrent and stochastic processes like real-world transit networks. The proposed configurable Petri net approach uniquely maps the needs hierarchy into the network modeling.
- It enhances strategic decision-making, allowing logistics firms and infrastructure planners to optimize long-term route and capacity planning based on sustainability, customer needs, and other priorities.
- It improves network efficiency via route configurations tuned to diverse stakeholder requirements.
- The structured analysis increases transparency and trust in the decision process.
- The framework’s scalability suits the rising complexities in massive global transit systems.
- The customizable modeling approach provides decision support across different contexts like seaports, airports, rail networks, and urban transportation.
- By improving planning, the framework can shape transportation policies and infrastructure investments that balance economic viability with social and environmental stewardship.
2. Related Works
- Most traditional methods tend to analyze decision-making factors on a single plane, usually economic. Such an approach can overlook the interdependencies and complexities among various elements, such as geographical constraints, political stability, infrastructure quality, and technological readiness, leading to potentially sub-optimal decisions.
- Traditional methods like linear or integer programming often fall short of accurately representing concurrency and dependencies among decision factors. This could lead to misjudgment of risks and benefits associated with different alternatives.
- Many existing methods are mathematically abstract and lack a visual representation. This lack of visualization can make it challenging for decision-makers to understand the decision-making process and communicate it effectively to other stakeholders.
- Traditional models are often static and may not reflect the rapidly changing realities of the global economy, such as sudden political changes, infrastructure developments, or technological innovations.
- Some models might struggle to scale as the number of routes or the complexity of each hierarchical level increases. This scalability issue could limit their usefulness in large-scale or complex decision-making scenarios.
- Traditional models may lack flexibility in adapting to different contexts or scenarios. They usually stick to a predetermined set of criteria, making it challenging to incorporate new decision parameters or adjust existing ones in response to changing circumstances.
3. Materials and Methods
- In the geographical plane, sustainability considerations can focus on optimizing transportation routes to minimize carbon emissions and environmental impact. Decision-makers can assess the environmental footprint of each alternative route, taking into account factors such as distance traveled, fuel consumption, and the use of eco-friendly transport modes. By selecting routes that are more fuel-efficient and eco-friendly, the geographical plane contributes to reducing the overall environmental impact of freight transportation.
- In the economic plane, sustainability considerations can be intertwined with cost-efficiency. Decision-makers can evaluate the long-term benefits of adopting sustainable practices, such as investing in energy-efficient transportation technologies, utilizing renewable energy sources, and adopting green logistics practices. By factoring in the cost of carbon emissions and potential savings from sustainable initiatives, the economic plane ensures that sustainable choices align with both environmental and financial goals.
- In the institutional/political plane, sustainability considerations revolve around regulatory compliance and adherence to environmental standards. Decision-makers can assess the environmental policies and regulations of different regions and countries to ensure that transportation alternatives align with sustainability guidelines. This plane also encourages collaboration with industry stakeholders to promote sustainable practices and contribute to collective efforts in achieving environmental objectives.
- The infrastructure plane plays a pivotal role in promoting sustainability by prioritizing investments in eco-friendly infrastructure. Decision-makers can evaluate and prioritize sustainable infrastructure projects, such as green ports, energy-efficient terminals, and smart logistics hubs. Furthermore, the infrastructure plane can incorporate sustainability criteria in evaluating the impact of transportation infrastructure on local ecosystems and communities.
- In the technological plane, sustainability considerations can focus on adopting advanced transportation technologies that minimize environmental impact. Decision-makers can explore eco-friendly technologies, such as electric and hybrid vehicles, alternative fuels, and autonomous transportation systems. Additionally, this plane encourages research and development of innovative technologies that contribute to sustainable transportation solutions.
- Geographic plane: .
- Economic plane: .
- Institutional/political plane: .
- Infrastructure plane: .
- Technology plane: .
- The hierarchy of transport needs is a kind of decision-making model for decision-makers in the transportation of goods. In this regard, the results obtained using this approach are more reliable and more credible for these persons.
- A hierarchy of transport needs can help transport planners and providers adapt services, infrastructure, and transport policies to better meet the specific requirements and expectations of different user segments.
- The hierarchy of transport needs can be used to form policy and investment decisions tailored to user expectations. The resources and priorities of transport initiatives should focus on meeting expectations in the area of higher hierarchy of needs, gradually moving to lower priority levels. Such transport decision-making, in line with the carriers’ decision-making model, can help to ensure that investments meet the most pressing needs of users and lead to more efficient transport outcomes.
4. Results
- Petri nets have a graphical representation that, on the one hand, makes it possible to visualize the interactions of different elements of the transport system, and on the other hand, it makes it easier for decision-makers to understand and analyze the dynamics of the system.
- Petri nets are useful for modeling parallel processes, which is typical for the problem under consideration when the analysis of the movement of goods along parallel but different transport routes takes place.
- The structure of Petri nets has a good association with the hierarchy of transport needs and provides a clear visual representation of the decision-making process during modeling.
- Petri nets are flexible, extensible, and scalable, making it easy to include additional elements or parameters during the development of the model. This gives additional opportunity for model extension to accumulate changes in the structure of transport needs or to incorporate additional factors or decision criteria over time.
- Petri nets have many modeling and analysis tools available, making them easy to use in practice.
- Exponential delay , where is the delay, is a coefficient related to the parameter, and is another coefficient determining the rate of decay.
- Power function , where is the delay, and are coefficients related to the parameter, and is a parameter determining the power of the function.
- Reciprocal function , where is the delay, and are coefficients related to the parameter, and and determine the shape and scale of the reciprocal function.
- Logarithmic function , where is the delay, and are coefficients related to the parameter, and and determine the shape and scale of the logarithmic function.
5. Discussion
- Determine the number and routes of transportation alternatives that will be considered in the study.
- For each framework plan, define a set of indicators that will be used to evaluate and compare alternatives. These indicators should reflect the relevant factors and criteria influencing decision-making at each level of the hierarchy.
- Modify the basic E-net for each level of the framework hierarchy, taking into account the number of parameters chosen for each level of the hierarchy.
- Establish mathematical expressions that determine the transition delay in the Petri Net based on the parameter values. Each parameter should have a corresponding expression that maps its value to the delay in the transition. Consider using functions, formulas, or equations that accurately represent the relationship between the parameter and the delay.
- Build a Petri net model using known modeling tools or software [46]. Set up the initial marking and run a simulation to observe the flow of the markers and the behavior of the transition. This will give an understanding of the decision-making process and the criteria for selecting alternatives at each level of the framework plan hierarchy.
- Analyze the results of the simulation by estimating the time required for the marker to travel from the start position to the end position of the model. As the optimal solution, select the option with the minimum time for the marker to travel this path.
- Greater flexibility of E-net when modeling complex systems compared to other types of Petri nets, which is provided by additional synchronization mechanisms that extend its modeling capabilities for the example under consideration.
- The ability to simulate parallel processes in the E-net makes it particularly suitable for the present case of analyzing alternative transport routes.
- The ability to visually represent the behavior of the system in the E-net makes it easier for stakeholders to understand the model and increases confidence in its results. At the same time, visualization clearly demonstrates the bottlenecks in the system, which leads to better analysis and more effective decision-making.
- The scalability and modularity of E-net models allow you to simulate large-scale systems while maintaining their original hierarchical structure.
- The ability to easily adapt and modify the E-net model allows you to make changes and refinements to it as you understand the system or new requirements appear. This adaptability ensures that the model remains up-to-date and can be updated to reflect changes in the system as it evolves over time.
- -
- While each of these methods has its strengths and has been valuable in various decision-making scenarios, they may not fully address the complexity and dynamics of the transportation sector’s multi-criteria decision-making. The proposed method, with its multi-plane framework and E-net modeling, offers a comprehensive, dynamic, and visually intuitive approach, explicitly considering sustainability factors and providing more effective solutions for selecting the best transport alternatives.
- -
- Despite its valuable contributions, the proposed study also has certain limitations:
- The effectiveness of the model heavily relies on the availability and quality of data. Gathering comprehensive and accurate data on various criteria across different planes of influence can be challenging, which involves multiple stakeholders and jurisdictions.
- While E-net offers powerful modeling capabilities, it may require specialized expertise and computational resources for implementation and analysis. This could potentially limit its adoption by smaller organizations or those without access to advanced modeling tools.
- The process of assigning weights to different criteria in the decision-making process involves subjective judgment. The study should provide a clear and transparent methodology for eliciting and incorporating decision-makers’ preferences, but inherent biases and variations in weighting may still exist.
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- The practical implications of the proposed approach extend to a wide range of users, from cargo owners and logistics managers to policymakers and researchers. It empowers decision-makers to make informed and sustainable choices, leading to optimized transportation networks, reduced environmental impact, and improved overall efficiency of transport.
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- The proposed approach enables cargo owners and shippers to make well-informed decisions when selecting transport alternatives. They can consider a comprehensive set of criteria, including geographical, economic, institutional, infrastructural, technological, and sustainability factors, to optimize their supply chain and reduce transportation costs. By incorporating sustainability considerations, cargo owners can align their transportation practices with environmental and social goals, promoting responsible and eco-friendly shipping solutions.
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- Logistics managers can use the proposed model to identify the most efficient and reliable transportation routes. The E-net modeling facilitates a systematic representation of dependencies and concurrency, aiding in strategic planning and resource allocation. Real-time decision support provided using the model allows logistics managers to respond promptly to disruptions and dynamically adjust operations to maintain efficient and smooth cargo flow.
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- Policymakers can leverage the proposed approach to assess the impact of transportation policies and infrastructure investments. They can use the model’s analysis to prioritize projects that improve connectivity, reduce emissions, and enhance the overall efficiency of transportation networks. Incorporating sustainability factors into decision-making supports policymakers in promoting environmentally friendly transportation practices and achieving national and international sustainability goals.
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- Transportation services providers can utilize the proposed approach to differentiate themselves in the market by offering more sustainable and efficient transport solutions. By meeting the growing demand for environmentally responsible services, they can attract environmentally conscious customers and gain a competitive advantage. The model’s insights can aid in optimizing fleet management, route planning, and capacity utilization, leading to cost savings and improved service levels.
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- The proposed approach contributes to the academic and research community by introducing a novel combination of the transport needs hierarchy framework and E-net modeling. Scholars can build upon this work to advance the field of multi-criteria decision-making in transportation and explore further applications in different industries. The comprehensive and systematic nature of the proposed approach opens avenues for interdisciplinary research, encouraging collaboration between experts in logistics, environmental studies, and transportation planning.
6. Conclusions
- By adopting the multi-plane framework, decision-makers can make more informed choices when selecting transportation alternatives. Consideration of a broad spectrum of influencing factors ensures a comprehensive evaluation, leading to improved efficiency and cost-effectiveness.
- The integration of E-net modeling empowers decision-makers with a powerful tool to capture the intricacies of the transportation system. E-net’s ability to represent time-dependent decision-making processes ensures that strategic decisions are not only accurate but also timely, enabling adaptability in a dynamic environment.
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Plans of Transport Needs Hierarchy Framework | Possible Parameters | Description of Parameters |
---|---|---|
Geographical Plane | Distance | The parameter characterizes the physical distance between the points of departure and the destination of cargo transportation. More efficient are alternatives with shorter routes. |
Accessibility | The parameter fixes the degree of accessibility to the transportation route. Routes with high accessibility to the main transport corridors, the presence of reserve sections of the transport network, etc., are more efficient. | |
Geographical Constraints | The parameter takes into account the presence of geographical features of the route that may affect the transportation process, for example, the presence of mountains, the risk of landslides, river floods, or other natural obstacles. | |
Climate and Weather Conditions | The parameter takes into account the risks of the impact of climatic and weather conditions on the efficiency of transportation along the selected routes, such as average temperatures, precipitation, strong winds, and the presence of other extreme weather events. | |
Sustainability and Environmental Impact | To take into account sustainability factors and to minimize the impact of transport on the environment, parameters can be used that take into account the environmental consequences associated with each route of transportation, for example, the level of carbon emissions, the degree of transport’s impact on environmental degradation, and others. | |
Economic Plane | Cost | The indicator determines the effectiveness of each of the selected alternative transportation routes from an economic point of view, evaluating the profitability of the routes and all types of direct and indirect costs in the transportation process. |
Time Efficiency | The indicator characterizes the time costs in the process of transporting goods along alternative routes (total travel time, transit delays, customs clearance time, and other time factors). | |
Reliability | The indicator characterizes the stability, predictability, and reliability of the route, determined on the basis of historical data on the passage of goods along this route, performance feedback, and the overall efficiency of logistics operations along the route. | |
Capacity | The parameter characterizes the capacity and scalability of transport routes in order to ensure that the selected routes can meet the expected demand and provide adequate logistical support based on an analysis of factors such as the availability of sufficient infrastructure, fleet size, and cargo volume invariance. | |
Risk and Insurance | The parameter takes into account the potential risks of a complex of unfavorable factors and the possibility of their compensation in case of occurrence due to insurance coverage. | |
Market Accessibility | The parameter determines the ease of access to target markets or distribution networks for each alternative supply route. An assessment is made to ensure the route’s market advantage, taking into account such factors as proximity to customers, the competitive environment in the region of the route, the density of distribution centers, and others. | |
Institutional/Political Plane | Political Stability | As a parameter, parameters assessed using international organizations can be used, for example, the World Bank’s index of political stability and absence of violence/terrorism. |
Regulatory Environment | The parameter can be assessed using both internationally recognized indicators of the effectiveness of the legal environment for business in the countries along which the route passes, for example, using the World Bank Ease of Doing Business Index, and based on specific transport regulations that affect freight traffic along the route of transport. | |
Trade Agreements | The parameter can characterize the existence and features of bilateral or multilateral trade agreements that affect the efficiency of the transportation of goods between their countries of origin and destination. | |
Customs Efficiency | The parameter characterizes the time and complexity of customs procedures for the transportation of goods, as well as the conditions of visa control for persons accompanying the goods. | |
Security | The parameter determines the level of crime, the risk of theft, the risk of military actions, and other security issues on the route. | |
Corruption Index | Indicators related to corruption and other barriers and risks in dealing with official structures related to cargo transportation in different regions, one of which can be, for example, Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index. | |
Environmental Regulations | Parameters characterizing the degree of stringency of environmental regulations relating to the transport and logistics sector can significantly influence the choice of transport alternatives. | |
Infrastructure Plane | Transportation Infrastructure Quality | Indicators that characterize the overall quality and level of development of transport infrastructure (roads and railways, terminals, airports and ports, etc.) can significantly affect. For example, the Logistics Performance Index from the World Bank can be used as one of these parameters. |
Availability of Multimodal Transportation | Indicators characterizing, if necessary, the possibility of using the possibilities of various modes of transport and their combination, as well as combined transport. | |
Reliability of Infrastructure | The indicators evaluate factors such as infrastructure disruption due to maintenance and repair operations, infrastructure accidents, construction and modernization work, and other similar ones. | |
Capacity of Infrastructure | The parameter determines the invariance of the infrastructure to the volume of cargo that can be transported along certain routes or modes of transport, which depends on factors such as the width and condition of roads, the throughput of ports, airports, or railways, the availability of toll roads, and others. | |
Accessibility | The indicator characterizes the degree of accessibility to key infrastructure transport facilities, such as ports, logistics centers, terminals, warehouses, etc. In some cases, when delivering goods to remote areas or hard-to-reach places, it is necessary to take into account the possibility of using infrastructure that corresponds to the type of transport means used to deliver goods. | |
Infrastructure Development Projects | Information about ongoing and expected transport infrastructure development projects that may affect future transportation options. | |
Digital Infrastructure | The quality and availability of intelligent transport systems, information systems, communication networks, GPS tracking, and other digital tools used in modern logistics and transport. | |
Technology Plane | Availability of Advanced Transportation Technologies | Indicators that take into account the possibility of using automated loading and unloading systems, innovative transport technologies, or advanced delivery technologies (for example, larger and more efficient container ships, robotic loaders, drones, and others). |
Supply Chain Visibility Technologies | Metrics that take into account the availability and ability to use cargo tracking systems such as GPS tracking, RFID, or IoT devices that provide real-time updates on the location and status of the cargo. | |
Communication and Information Systems | Indicators of the availability and reliability of the use of automatic data exchange information systems, such as electronic data interchange (EDI) systems, in some cases, can be significant. | |
Automation Capabilities | Indicators that take into account the possibilities of paperless technologies (degree of automation of warehousing, customs clearance, or logistics management processes) and related robotic and information systems. | |
Technological Readiness | The indicator can characterize the readiness of transport service providers and other stakeholders to implement and use advanced technologies, including their adaptation to technologies already used by the carrier. | |
Digital Security | Indicators that take into account the resilience and degree of protection of digital technologies from cyber attacks and data leakage, including measures for the use of encryption standards, as well as historical data on the number of violations in this area. | |
Sustainability Technologies | Indicators that take into account the use of technologies that increase environmental sustainability, such as the use of energy-efficient transport means, renewable energy sources in transport, or technologies that reduce waste and emissions. |
Method | Disadvantages of Existing Methods |
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Linear Programming Models | Linear programming models often consider only one objective function, typically based on cost optimization. They may not adequately capture the complexity of multi-criteria decision-making in the transport sector, leading to suboptimal solutions when other critical factors like sustainability and reliability are not explicitly considered. |
Mixed Integer Programming Models | While mixed integer programming allows for the consideration of discrete decision variables, it may become computationally challenging for larger-scale problems involving multiple criteria and constraints. The optimization process might be time-consuming and may not effectively capture dynamic changes in the transportation environment. |
Multi-Objective Programming Models | Multi-objective programming methods consider multiple criteria simultaneously. However, they often lack the ability to provide clear insights into the trade-offs between conflicting objectives, making it challenging for decision-makers to make informed choices. Additionally, these models may not inherently incorporate sustainability aspects. |
Monte Carlo Simulation Models | Monte Carlo simulation models can be effective for scenario analysis but may require significant data input and computation time. They might not offer a systematic approach to decision-making, and the results may not be as precise or easily interpretable as those from other methods. |
Analytic Hierarchy Process | While AHP helps structure decision-making by quantifying subjective judgments, it may be limited in addressing dynamic and time-dependent decision-making. Moreover, AHP might not inherently integrate multiple planes of influence, potentially leading to an oversimplified evaluation of transport alternatives. |
Fuzzy Logic Models | Fuzzy logic models can handle imprecise and uncertain data, but they might struggle to provide a clear representation of the decision-making process. Interpretability might be challenging, making it difficult to communicate results effectively to stakeholders. |
Neural Network Models | Neural network models excel at pattern recognition and learning from data but might not be as suitable for multi-criteria decision-making. The complexity of neural networks may hinder transparency in the decision-making process, leading to difficulty in understanding the reasons behind certain choices. |
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Kabashkin, I. Model of Multi Criteria Decision-Making for Selection of Transportation Alternatives on the Base of Transport Needs Hierarchy Framework and Application of Petri Net. Sustainability 2023, 15, 12444. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151612444
Kabashkin I. Model of Multi Criteria Decision-Making for Selection of Transportation Alternatives on the Base of Transport Needs Hierarchy Framework and Application of Petri Net. Sustainability. 2023; 15(16):12444. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151612444
Chicago/Turabian StyleKabashkin, Igor. 2023. "Model of Multi Criteria Decision-Making for Selection of Transportation Alternatives on the Base of Transport Needs Hierarchy Framework and Application of Petri Net" Sustainability 15, no. 16: 12444. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151612444
APA StyleKabashkin, I. (2023). Model of Multi Criteria Decision-Making for Selection of Transportation Alternatives on the Base of Transport Needs Hierarchy Framework and Application of Petri Net. Sustainability, 15(16), 12444. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151612444